Don's Weekly, 11 March 2024: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1…)

Marinka

The fighting continued at Pobieda and Novomykhailivka but not as severe as in past weeks. The airstrikes and artillery were just as heavy, but Ukrainians held their ground.

An ATGM gunner discusses her experiences around Novomykhailivka…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1766093550591058396

***

Zaporizhzhia

The attacks on Robotyne were just as fierce as in past weeks but Ukrainian defenses held firm. They were aided by an increase in artillery ammunition. The roads and treelines behind Ukraine’s front lines were heavily hit by Russian airstrikes and artillery.

The AT-4 is a Swedish-made 84mm unguided AT rocket. It’s maximum effective range for a direct hit is listed at 300 meters but it’s no surprise that the soldiers of the Omega Special Purpose Center need to fire several at a range of over 200 meters before both Russian tanks are hit, aided by mines and drones. They’re operating out of a basement of a ruined house with a blanket over the stairway to insulate against the weather and thermal detection. Once the tanks are eliminated, they pull out an automatic grenade launcher to engage the Russian infantry and work to mop up the survivors...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1766085699093073960

Russia uses a lot of small assault groups, as well. This one is dropped off by a vehicle that departs. After indirect fire drives the Russians into the trenches, drone bombers finish them off with drone bombers releasing several munitions at the same time…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1765366376888193408

28km behind the front lines, ammo cooks off after a Russian MLRS is hit…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1765003395406901248

***

Kherson

A Russian describes his experiences near Krynky. They’re always scanning the skies for drones. He doesn’t say how big his unit is, it could be anywhere from 50 to 300 men, but he says 28 were killed and every other man in the unit was wounded. The seriously wounded were evacuated to hospitals. The lightly wounded, like himself, remained on the front line. His unit was being rotated out to the Rostov area…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1766215742356181478

A heavily damaged house is used as a shelter by three Russians. Two drones (the first one is seen from two different angles) bring the roof down on them…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1766513860834427158

***

Crimea

The Tatar editor of a former online newspaper was arrested for being part of a defunct human rights organization that Russia portrays as a terrorist organization. Membership in this group is a common reason given for arrests of Ukrainian citizens in occupied Crimea…https://khpg.org/en/1608813471

A fuel storage facility in occupied Feodosia was attacked…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1764581418833703263

***

Black Sea

Another Russian patrol ship went down near the Kerch Strait after being struck by five naval drones. The first video shows Russian efforts to stop the drones with small arms fire. Tracers show how bullets can skip on the hard surface of the water. The next video in the thread shows the attack from the point of view of the naval drones…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1765376298736586834

A view from another ship. You can see the small arms fire before the first naval drone hits…

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1764908432992190559

A view from a different ship even closer…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1765466997234565310

The location of the attack. Notice all the stationary ships south of the Kerch bridge…

https://twitter.com/Dmojavensis/status/1765178020938322240

***

Russia

For an army to fight, it needs ammo and supplies, which need to be produced in a factory, which is dependent on the economy. The Russian economy is in no danger of collapsing overnight but increasing pressures are causing the price of doing business to rise. As Russia’s buying power decreases, it has prioritized military spending over the domestic quality of life. Russia is implementing economic policies that are unsustainable, although no one is setting a date for an economic collapse.

China is Russia's largest trading partner. As a single country, the US is China's largest trading partner. ASEAN and the EU as collectives rank above the US as China’s trading partner. Russia is China’s 10th largest trading partner. China is also gaining technology from these western and asian partners, not Russia. It's what funds their military, allows them to bully their neighbors in the South China Sea, and it provides the wealth to keep their population content, which is a major goal in the authoritarian regime…
https://www.voanews.com/a/chinese-bank-cuts-ties-to-russian-importers-/7482048.html

Another round of sanctions in December focused on banking, and several Chinese banks have since cut their ties with Russia. This won't stop trade between Russia and China, but it will make it just a little bit harder to evade sanctions. Everyone that helps Russia evade sanctions does so for profit. The more difficult it is for Russia to evade sanctions, the more it costs them to acquire goods. Sanctions lead to shortages or higher costs, and higher costs increase inflation. If inflation becomes too high than the ability to do business starts to collapse…https://www.voanews.com/a/chinese-bank-cuts-ties-to-russian-importers-/7482048.html

This is from the Bank of Russia website: In the fall, Russia’s rate of inflation was 11.5%. In December and January it dropped to 6.6% and in February it rose to 7.4%. The Bank of Russia is fighting inflation by setting the rate at which banks can borrow at 16%. (By comparison, the US Federal Reserve rate is 5.5%. US inflation is at 2.4% with a target of 2%). Anyone applying for loans in Russia would pay more than 16%, which makes it more difficult to do business. The Bank of Russia says, “the balance of inflation risks is still tilted to the upside”, labor shortages are impacting the output of goods and services, domestic demand exceeds production, but “a judgment on the sustainable nature of emerging disinflationary trends would be premature.”…https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/

While the Russian economy was predicted to drop 1.2% last year, it actually grew 3.6% due to military spending. 60-65% of the industrial growth came from military production. While there is a labor shortage, unemployment is at a record low 2.9% due to people fleeing the country or joining the military. Wage growth is focused in the defense industries where 40% of the nation’s budget is spent. Outside of that area, business owners cannot afford to pay higher wages despite the labor shortage. As inflation increases, the average Russia's ability to spend decreases.

The head of the Russian central bank said, “"If we try to drive faster than the car's design and push on the gas as hard as we can, then the engine will overheat sooner or later and we won't get far. We may go fast, but not for long."

An economist said, “"Not all growth is good if the benefit from this growth is mainly acquired by a very limited circle of economic agents. The bulk of the population is not experiencing income growth - or in the best case, it is in single digits in nominal terms. I don't see current economic growth as lasting or qualitative. I see it as a harbinger of an approaching economic crisis, perhaps the first since 2004, which may not even need an external shock."…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-gdp-boost-military-spending-belies-wider-economic-woes-2024-02-07/

Ukraine claimed a number of Russian aircraft were destroyed. OSINT methods to confirm these claims are video evidence, death notices of crews in Russian media and now visual confirmation of a reduction of planes at airfields. In February, Ukraine claimed that 15 jets were shot down. Satellite photos indicate that six SU-34s did not return to base. Four air bases were mentioned in this report. What is not known is whether other bases were also monitored…

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1765684810821816821

An aircraft repair facility in Taganrog was hit. Here is a Russian report on the drones Ukraine used. Tartarigami’s team said the drones evaded an S300/S400 battery and the roof of the hangar was penetrated. An A50 was parked outside on February 29, but they cannot definitively determine if it was inside the hangar or what damage might have been done. Tom states that Russian media reported that an A50 was destroyed, which means they only have six left…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1766360973386936512

The next night, Taganrog was attacked again using 41 drones to hit an aircraft factory that produces A-50s and the TMK Taganrog Metallurgical Plant that produces 950,000 tons of steel a year. Five explosions were heard and fires were seen but the full extent of the damage was not reported…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/dozens-of-uavs-attacked-an-aircraft-factory-in-taganrog/

In Tuva, near Mongolia, an explosion in a thermal power plant injured 18…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1765362298359525462

A processing plant for mining operations in Kursk was hit by drones…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1765292095298851296

North of Moscow, the blast furnace of ore processing plant was hit by a drone but the Russians say no one was hurt and production was not interrupted…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1765754498239099331

Three fuel storage tanks near Belgorod were hit by drones…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1764922516613529926

Over 2,000 km from Ukraine, a gas pipeline caught fire last May, which Russia said was caused by repair work on an unused section of the pipeline. The pipeline was on fire again last week…

https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1766702366886142298

A bridge that is 1,000 km from Ukraine was damaged. A nearby factory produces 30,000 tons of explosives…https://en.defence-ua.com/news/rail_bridge_leading_to_manufacturers_of_explosives_was_blown_up_1000_km_away_from_the_frontline_defense_intelligence-9724.html

Russia is recruiting citizens for an elite unit that pays $10,000 for signing the contract and $2,000 a month. If you’re from a poor region in Russian where many are unemployed and others earn $100 per month, the pay is hard to resist even if you know you aren’t likely to survive the war…

https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1765675553703559193

Russia is not authorized to buy Starlink but it was documented that they’ve done so through third parties. They are still trying to buy the terminals but the Russian doing the fundraising thinks the window for doing so is closing…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1765357904742220190

For my amusement, Russia will not tolerate any criticism of its democracy. It’s well known that the strongest democracies do not tolerate opposing views…

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1765325368615895227

Ukraine

Ukraine has not had an ambassador to the UK since the last one was removed in July for criticizing Zelensky’s “unhealthy sarcasm”. Zelensky has now appointed Zaluzhny for the post after the former commander-in-chief expressed interest in serving as a diplomat…https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/07/ukraine-zaluzhny-ambassador-uk/

Ukrainian crowdfunding has become more organized. In addition to international support, 80% of Ukrainians have donated. Last September, the Ukrainian government said crowdfunding provided 3% of Ukraine’s military funding since 2022…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/world/europe/ukraine-war-donations-crowdfunding.html

Crowdfunding provides equipment that might otherwise take months to reach some units…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1766069375277092864

Defensive positions are saving Ukrainian lives. Crowdfunding provided an excavator to the 59th brigade located between Marinka and Avdiivka. They’re trying to do the same for the 26th Artillery Brigade in the Bakhmut area….

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1764689764236538049

Four of 42 drones were not intercepted on March 6th…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1765297569201037600

(…to be continued…)