Don's Weekly, 1 July 2024: Part 3

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Crimea

The Soviet NIP-16 Space Tracking and Deep Space Communication Center was abandoned in 1991 and operated by Ukraine’s space agency, which leased its powerful radio telescopes to foreign astronomers. It was reactivated in 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea and most likely helped maintain the GLONASS satellites, Russia’s version of GPS. It was attacked by at least four ATACMS that ignited fires in the night.

A US Global Hawk drone monitored the Russian response to Ukrainian missile attacks. Russian war bloggers claimed a MiG-31 shot down a Global Hawk but Russia couldn’t confirm it and the US denied it.

Twelve hours later, at least five ATACMS attacked a military base in Sevastopol. One ATACMS was intercepted by the Russian air defences: knocked off course and landed in front of a crowded beach: the mass of its bomblets crashed into the water, but few hit the civilians. According to the Russian authorities, these killed five and injured twelve. Debris from a Russian air defense missile that failed to intercept incoming missiles fell in Sevastopol but no injuries were reported.

Here it should be kept in mind that the beach in question was one of several on the occupied Crimea positioned either right next to-, or almost directly underneath the Russian military facilities. Obviously, both the Russian occupation authorities (if they matter at all) and the Russian armed forces - bodies that are so very much ‘concerned about UkroNazi terrorism’ they can’t even name their highly-decorated officers and other ranks in the public any more - are demonstrating astonishing volumes of ‘tolerance for civilian presence’ next to numerous of their crucial facilities on the peninsula, that one is left wo wonder if the Russian Armed Forces are considering their own civilians for a sort of ‘human shields’:

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Unknown Location

A Ukrainian drone missed a Russian BTR with a bomb. It didn’t matter…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1805642584783532211

A TM-21 anti-tank mine has 7.5 kg of explosives. So if a golf cart ran over it, you can imagine the explosion, the flames, and the complete devastation to the golf cart and the unprotected drivers and passengers. And most of that happened. There was a huge explosion, a ball of fire and the breakdown of the golf cart to its molecular components. The driver and two passengers jogged away…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1805635686688563294

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Russia

There is a long history of unrest in Dagestan. In 2012, a border guard in Dagestan killed seven of his fellow soldiers and seven other died in a suicide bombing on the same day. Five people were killed in a Russian Orthodox church in 2018. In September, 2022, there were anti-mobilization protests. There was an anti-Semetic riot in November, 2023. In March, 145 were killed and more than 500 injured in an attack on a concert hall. Last week, two churches, two synagogues and a police post were attacked by five gunmen that also had Molotov cocktails. 21 people, 15 of them police officers, were killed in two separate attacks on the same day. 5 terrorists were also killed.

An ammo depot in Russia was attacked by two drone 100 km from the front…https://x.com/kromark/status/1805613648150225153

The Russian Economy

High inflation (8.17%) means economic capacity cannot meet demand. Russia has never had such a high percentage (84%) of economic capacity used before and it cannot exceed current levels. Huge currency reserves are being spent on the budget. 8.4 million jobs are at risk.

Russian foreign cash reserves in the last five years (top) and in the last year (bottom). In March, they had $396 billion.

The head of one of the largest banks in Russia has said that the country's economy is overheating due to the war in Ukraine. Since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia's economy has been hit by sanctions placed on it by the global community. Western nations were the most severe with sanctions, particularly on Russia's trade industry. Despite this, increased wartime activities have meant the Russian economy grew by 3.6% last year.

However, the CEO of Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, has now said that this growth is a sign of an overheated economy. Herman Gref, speaking at the Federation Council in the Russian legislature on June 4, is reported to have said: "Our economy is definitely and strongly overheated. We have never had such main capacity utilization in our history. At the level of 84 percent - this is threshold where it is merely impossible to go above it. And huge funds are going to the economy via the budget impulse."

Despite international condemnation of Russia's actions in Ukraine, and significant impacts of sanctions on the economy, Russia has maintained growth by generating demand for military goods and services. However, other key areas of the economy are feeling the strain. On June 5, Russia's Ministry of Economic Development released figures showing that annual inflation had risen to 8.17 percent. In March 2023, Federation Council Deputy Speaker Galina Karelova claimed that over 8.4 million jobs had been put at risk due to the international pressure, particularly those at international companies based in the West.

It's not the first time big stakeholders in the Russian economy have made warnings like this. In December last year, central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina made a similar prediction, saying: "The economy is expanding so rapidly because it is using almost all the resources available. A stubborn high inflation is evidence that the economy has deviated from its potential and lacks capacities to meet soaring demand."

(….to be continued…)