Great write up. Also great work from the @Naalsio26 twitter account. It gives a decent indication of the amount of hw present at different hot areas of the front line. Helps visualize the conflict.
Where does this come from? "Ukraine needs about 10,000 recruits a month to maintain its army of 1.1 million." attached link to Budanovs interview does not have such info.
"Ukraine needs about 10,000 recruits a month to maintain its army of 1.1 million." - the reference interview does not contain the number. If we divide the 500 000 they want to mobilize by 3 years (as it is said that this covers the military's needs till the end of 2024) we get about 20 000 / month, the number that was earlier claimed by an MP https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cz42gqeq5d4o What Budanov of your interview claims is that the current mobilization of 500 000 is there to account for losses, which you can find in the more extended version of the interview https://www.unian.ua/war/mobilizaciya-v-ukrajini-budanov-poyasniv-chomu-rekruting-ne-virishit-problemu-12486330.html "Буданов підкреслив, що на фронті є втрати, тому потрібно постійно набирати поповнення, щоб тримати чисельність армії на зазначеному рівні."
"Ukraine is also considering increasing the size of its military from 1.1 to 1.6 million people" - again, this is not in the text of the referenced article. The mobilization, first and foremost, seems to be needed to cover the losses, according to Budanov, the head of Ukrainian intelligence.
I mentioned some of the numbers in previous weeks.
In April, Ukraine had an active-duty force of 688,000 with 400,000 in reserve and 250,000 in its police and paramilitary forces for a total of 1,338,000.
But then from the existing army personnel in April 2023 you should subtract only the casualties from April to now, and not the total of 180000? So it's getting bigger than 1.6 million.
Every number is going to be an estimate with some degree of error. The amount posted in April 2023 may have been accurate at that time, or it may have been the number reported in that month but was gathered from a source at an earlier time. It is also possible that it was the maximum authorized number that may never have been filled. I chose to use that as the maximum size of the army.
If we choose to follow your assmumption, which is plausible, and all our other assumptions are correct, then the military would be larger by 130k or so. In my estimation, that is well within the margin of error.
Wrong link for "A Czech reporter familiar with Ukraine provides her opinion on the internal politics of Ukraine. " - the link points to "New Russian "black" Shahed models use a carbon fiber composite sandwich frame ... " https://twitter.com/erikkannike/status/1739934455702176166 instead.
Great write up. Also great work from the @Naalsio26 twitter account. It gives a decent indication of the amount of hw present at different hot areas of the front line. Helps visualize the conflict.
Спасибо, Том.
Потери на Запорожском направлении осень расстраивают.
Where does this come from? "Ukraine needs about 10,000 recruits a month to maintain its army of 1.1 million." attached link to Budanovs interview does not have such info.
"Ukraine needs about 10,000 recruits a month to maintain its army of 1.1 million." - the reference interview does not contain the number. If we divide the 500 000 they want to mobilize by 3 years (as it is said that this covers the military's needs till the end of 2024) we get about 20 000 / month, the number that was earlier claimed by an MP https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cz42gqeq5d4o What Budanov of your interview claims is that the current mobilization of 500 000 is there to account for losses, which you can find in the more extended version of the interview https://www.unian.ua/war/mobilizaciya-v-ukrajini-budanov-poyasniv-chomu-rekruting-ne-virishit-problemu-12486330.html "Буданов підкреслив, що на фронті є втрати, тому потрібно постійно набирати поповнення, щоб тримати чисельність армії на зазначеному рівні."
"Ukraine is also considering increasing the size of its military from 1.1 to 1.6 million people" - again, this is not in the text of the referenced article. The mobilization, first and foremost, seems to be needed to cover the losses, according to Budanov, the head of Ukrainian intelligence.
I mentioned some of the numbers in previous weeks.
In April, Ukraine had an active-duty force of 688,000 with 400,000 in reserve and 250,000 in its police and paramilitary forces for a total of 1,338,000.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-military-balances-uneven-training-levels-after-year-of-war-2023-4
An August US estimate of Ukrainian deaths was 70k killed and 100-120k wounded. 180k divided by 18 months is 10k per month.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html
Zelensky said that the army proposed mobilizing 450-500k troops.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/
1,338,000 - 180,000 + 450,000 = 1,608,000
Is it April 2023? Then the calculation is not correct because the losses are for 18 months, not only from April to August.
That's probably why I divided the casualties by 18 in order to determine an approximate monthly rate of loss.
But then from the existing army personnel in April 2023 you should subtract only the casualties from April to now, and not the total of 180000? So it's getting bigger than 1.6 million.
Every number is going to be an estimate with some degree of error. The amount posted in April 2023 may have been accurate at that time, or it may have been the number reported in that month but was gathered from a source at an earlier time. It is also possible that it was the maximum authorized number that may never have been filled. I chose to use that as the maximum size of the army.
If we choose to follow your assmumption, which is plausible, and all our other assumptions are correct, then the military would be larger by 130k or so. In my estimation, that is well within the margin of error.
Wrong link for "A Czech reporter familiar with Ukraine provides her opinion on the internal politics of Ukraine. " - the link points to "New Russian "black" Shahed models use a carbon fiber composite sandwich frame ... " https://twitter.com/erikkannike/status/1739934455702176166 instead.
Thanks.
Can we get a fixed link?