it's a nice article. i have only one problem with the first third - if giving exactly the same treatment to each and every in mid-east (in the whole world for that matter) also implies that each and every one out there accepts that and behaves like that. historically, there are too many cases where one expects the other party to adhere to one's own standards but the reality is different. what to do - i don't know but, as you've written, that equal treatment for everybody ain't going to happen in our lifetime.
Dear Tom, thanks! It preliminary seems, that this second strike is more effective then first, so they are adapting. How do you see Iranian AD capacity, what is your estimation of their long range ballistic stocks, ballpark, 10 more such strikes, 50, or? Do you feel that US considering elections and all other things will get serioudly involved, or will try to distance, it seems there are some small signs of it? Do you think Turkey may get involved or what could be stance of other Middle East states? It seems Israel is really picking up the fight, and I wonder, considering they can calculate the responses, and probably reacting now with pre-planned actions, what could be their short to middle term goals? The feeling is that some chaos is good opportunity to get some moves on the ground, in terms of gaining better positions or even living space, but nothing more I can see. So there should be also some de-escalation plan probably. Like two steps forward, one step back.
I will always chuckle a little bit where hearing IRI Iranians complain about being treated unequally given how they tread their neighbours ...
Sarcasm aside, this was a fascinating article. It certainly provided a coherent Iranian vision of its regional landscape. Nuanced yet fully coherent. For reasons it reminds me of an anecdote about Suleimani taking Barzani on a tour in Iranian Kurdistan by helicopter.
Mosaic Doctrine. Pre-emption Doctrine. Patience Doctrine. Are you suggesting the top tier of IRGC build useless stuff such as "doctrines" ? And this pre-emption of possible conflicts ? Like a competent general staff ? That cant be ? Why bother when you can keep your obsolete doctrines dating from a previous political regime/state. *insert bitter laugh in Cossack dialect.
The first consequences of the Iranian missile attack on Israel - oil prices jumped by 5% at once, to $72-75 per barrel. It is quite obvious that the Russian leadership has hung out festive flags regarding the latest escalation provoked by the Netanyahu clique. Israel has already promised Iran "terrible revenge". https://www.newsru.co.il/israel/1oct2024/israel_usa_0014.html
Thanks for having the courage to write such a sober and objective analysis. The people who really need to read it almost certainly will not.
I just noted that the Iranian missile swarm seems to have been targeted in such a way as to avoid direct hits on major population centres. Undoubtedly for strategic rather than humanitarian reasons. We'll have to wait to see whether that strategy works.
I weep for the Ukrainians living under a continual rain of missiles fired by the Russian scum - which are substantially targeted on civil infrastructure, power stations, hospitals, schools etc. Shame that the USA doesn't see Ukrainians as equally valuable to Israelis.
«Has the IRGC – whether in combination with- or without Hezbollah and Hamas – ever massacred 50,000 Israeli civilians? Are Palestinians, Iranians, and Lebanese worth less than the Israelis?» – Of course, these, etc., Iran does not have such an opportunity to kill so many civilians now. But they were good at doing it in Syria and Iraq. In fact, to arrange a whole genocide against the Sunnis. For these purposes, Qasem Suleimani gathered all possible Shiite mercenaries from around the world who raped, robbed and killed the local population. HUNDREDS of thousands of victims over all these years. I will tell you more that the IRGC in Iran and the Shiite police in Iraq kill protesters with ease. Shoots them by the thousands. Protests in Iran and Iraq happen all the time, because the incompetent marauders of the Ayatollahs have brought both countries to a state of decline. Everyone has already had enough of spending billions on eternal jihads. Although the IRGC is very skillful in diverting the attention of the protesters by organizing provocations, and they then go to smash the US embassies.
To add, IRGC was quite willing and able to supply training and weapons including effective EFP mines to the Iraqi insurgents, which enabled them to kill and maim a few thousand US soldiers. And - to add to the body count, IRGC support for the insurgency made tens of thousands of Iraquis throw away their lives by making them think they have a chance to survive attacking US military. Many bodies were made on both sides of that war by IRGC/QF. I would guess it's in the tens of thousands altogether. Indirectly of course.
Every US citizen should thank Barack Hussein Obama and his "wise" administration, which at one time removed all sanctions from Iran, giving the Shiites hundreds of billions in resources for further aggression in Syria and Iraq.
The US and the EU have effectively nurtured the new aggressor by giving it resources, lifting sanctions, and even helping to destroy Iran's enemies. For example, when the US bombed Mosul. About when the USA coordinated its actions with the Kremlin in Syria. Of course, the Kremlin passed on all this information to the IRGC.
I think the first thank you note should go to GWBush for breaking Iraq and destabilizing Syria, which gave Iran something it could never do on its own - a weak Sunni Mesopotamia, on fire with terror and insurgency. Without that original sin, IRGC could have all the money in the world, it wouldn't be able to go to Syria or Iraq or Lebanon.
Thank him for the spread of Islamist terror throughout the region - with weak governments, who was to stop them? And with millions of refugees from the war including hundreds of thousands of unemployed former Sunni Iraqui soldiers, who could have predicted they would turn to Wahhabi terror?
Nature abhors a vaccum, GW created the vacuum for our enemies to fill. That was the original sin that allowed the rest to follow.
Permit me to point out what I think is an error in your approach. (I may be right, I may be wrong, but this does not make me a ban-able troll. Intellectual disagreement isn't trolling....)
It is fine to recount perspectives and grievances. In any dispute each side will have plenty to present. And dueling narratives can be spun out forever, whether in good faith or bad faith. It doesn't get us very far.
The only way out of an infinite chicken-and-egg chain is to apply strict, legal criteria to countries' actions. and leaders' actions , and the legal criteria exist. They just need to be enforced. I'd like to see Netanyahu brought before the international court for violations of humanitarian law in Gaza. Was Israel legally right to use military force against Hamas in Gaza? Law clearly says 'yes'. Was the manner of application of force lawful? It appears the answer may be 'no' on grounds of disproportionality and collective punishment of civilians. Is Netanyahu personally responsible? He should be tried and a court should decide...
Is an Israeli military incursion into Lebanon allowed under international law? It depends on the nature of the incursion, its goals and its proportionality to the threat of missile attacks on Israeli targets. Will Israel's actions be consistent with the right of self-defense or go beyond? This remains to be seen.
The inherent flaws of the ICC are laws and definitions of crimes it can prosecute. The genocide for example, every little detail of the original Lemkins definition describing crimes perpetrated by the Soviet Union (persecution of groups defined by class) or colonial powers (cultural genocide), or even minor Allied states (mass deportations of Germans) were excluded from the final UN declaration on the crime of genocide. The ICC is doing its work with both hands tied behind its back.
So, here's the thing, international laws do not and cannot work as the framework for stability. Why? Because laws have to have someone with the power to enforce them. Not to get biblical/koranic, but it's like the order of creation. First there arises (is created) a power which can exercise a monopoly over violence in a given geographic area (your parents house, the local militia, a country, whatever). Then relying on that monopoly over violence, that power gets to set rules and punish transgressions. Then if the power is big enough, smart enough and wants stability, it writes down those rules and creates a bureaucracy to enforce them. And then, sometimes, this power decides that the laws apply to itself as well as it's subjects equally. And this is where we get to LAW as we understand it.
Problem with "international law" is that it's a lie. There is no power that can enforce those laws onto everyone. At best they are voluntary, and even for those who sign the treaties, there is no one to force them to comply. Unless they are a small power and lager powers decide that it's in their interests to enforce the "law". So, international law is a legalistic fig leaf to cover up the usual international power politics.
And this is will be until there is a power which can enforce a monopoly over violence across the whole world, or until an omnipotent God/aliens finally show their face and decide to soend their lives settling the affairs of humans (If I were them, I would pass).
It is a simplistic view of law and order, indoctrinated by, let us call it "propaganda" of certain groups, interested in keeping the monopoly.
In reality there are multiple examples of courts disconnected from enforcement, that would work quite well and on voluntarily basis. For example some commercial arbitrary courts in Europe. Parties come to this process by mutual agreement. Though sometimes would not follow the decisions, especially if "protected" by national state. But the reason for this process to work, is that bigger company would not dissapear tomorrow, so is interested to keep things resolved and continue to work on international market.
Other examples would be brehon law in Ireland, they would resolve disputes of sovereigns as well.
Gangs in post Soviet space were having a kind of "law", or rather dispute process that would identify who is "right". This was to avoid "bespredel", chaos and disorder, and sometimes gangs would punish their own members accused of "bespredel" in order to avoid gang wars. Of course this one rarely included any proofs, rather verbal agruments, some major P. is quite versed in that one, and this what he does actually whenever he speaks.
In US history declaring someone outlaw was quite effective, as one could take anything from such person including life without any consequences, as this was literally out law.
The court process itself is quite formal and logical process, and would often reveal logical fallacies that are present in propaganda of any side. And could be made even more so, as some proponents consider that only logic is enough, not even any written law, to bring in justice. For example a person that was found guilty of consious murder, could not logically claim that it is unjust to take life from the person, as this would contradict own acts. And then could not possibly and justly object against death penalty to such perpetrator, etc.
The gangs of USSR/Russia is actually the perfect example of what I was talking about (and having come from that culture - USSR, not vorovskoi mir, I know the subject pretty well).
The "Thieves Law" or "ponyatiya" are a set of "understandings" about how relationships between entities that wield power (gangs/gangsters) should work. They are seemingly rigid but in practice the amount of "justice" one receives in such a "court proceeding" is proportional to ones power (respect+money+connections+guns). If there was a third party "adjudicating" the dispute, then relationship with and interests of that party also played a role. Without a written set of laws that are backed up by a monopoly of violence, its just a business negotiation with guns, and some lip service paid to the "law".
A basic principle of law is that everyone is equal under it. The thing that assures this equality is the law giver having monopoly of violence over the claimants, otherwise it's an arbitrary sham where the "biggest man" wins whether right or wrong - like in Vorovskoi Mir. Or to put it simpler, thieves law is bespredel but without the shooting.
Well, this may make a long discussion, and I would like to cut it short, for we have different education.
Ask yourself a few questions:
Current ru legal practice, having perfect enforcement and written laws, is it really justice or same "one receives in such "court proceeding" proportional to ones power"? And by the way are you sure that practice of "gang laws" was so flexible? It was not justice, just because people outside of gangs were not considered equals, but between gangs, without enforcement and written laws, it was and is working pretty well.
And here comes a question, why societies engage in lawmaking? What is the interest of individuals?
When you think of it, you may see, equality is not a basic principle of law, equality is an essence of justice. And law, currently, is a system to provide justice. But ideal of justice exist in our consiousness independently of law and law enforcement.
There are many more immediate things there, but is already too long discussion.
I see you are versed in former USSR, so they also had some perfect concepts of law and justice. You may read Vladik Nersesyants, “Mathematics of Freedom” to jump-start your law phylosophy education, though it may be too difficult to read at times.
Or read Murray Rothbard, "Ethics of Liberty", a much lighter read as to me.
Russia certainly has a proper legal system in the technical organizational sense, it's just corrupt as hell and used as as an arbitrary tool of oppression.
I should probably mention that "equality under the law" is not the same as "equality" in a broad sense, it's is the principle that laws are applied equally, as in everyone has the right to the same due process. At least in principle.
Hi Al, Thanks for your thoughts. I think you make a fair practical point, but then fall into a false-choice fallacy. Let me explain my opinion why.
You make a fair practical point that enforcement of international laws is problematic. But then you pivot to an all-or-nothing false choice fallacy by arguing that because there is no single absolute power that can enforce international law absolutely, international law is completely unenforceable and vacuous.
Once I put it that clearly, I think the error of logic shows through. No practical person thinks that international law will ever be enforced absolutely, or applied with absolute fairness.
That doesn't mean that international laws and norms can't work to some extent and international bodies, treaties and customs can't at least impose meaningful incentives and disincentives on states' actions.
Complexity is hard to digest. Imperfect answers that aren't solutions are frustrating, but they can be building blocks for progress.
Even totally nonviolent sanctions, boycotts, expulsions from organizations, etc. can impose costs.
I think we agree on most of that, my quibble is with language (which is inexorably tied to how we process reality).
What you describe above are various ways that countries and people within societies push each other to do the "right thing", and impose consequences for doing the "wrong thing". But that's fundamentally different from criminal process which IHL purports to provide.
With the recent Israeli incursions into Lebanon and Iranian attacks on Israel, I can't help but notice that the Biden-Blinken plan of "preventing a regional war" now lies in complete shambles. All this because they refused to use any of their leverage over Netanyahu. Will they learn from these failures? - Nope!
Problem with US and west in general is it's stuck in 1967 when it comes to Israel, 1979 when it comes to Iran and 1923 when it comes to Iraq and Syria.
These equate to roughly:
1923 Paulet–Newcombe Agreement
1967 Six Day War
1979 Iranian Revolution
Hence it's merely reactive and no longer a proactive player in regional affairs. True power in the region is now contested by Iran, KSA, UAE, Israel and Turkey.
There is no solution to this conflict. As Connor McLeod said: "in the end there can be only one." And it will be Bibi. Just kidding) But seriously, without resolving the issue with Iran, the entire Near East will be permanently destabilized by the IRGC. The Iranian regime can only be stopped by force.
Nothing gets resolved if Iran was swallowed by ocean tomorrow.
Israel is sitting on a demographic timebomb and literally needs "lebensraum" for its burgeoning population of Haredim ultra-orthodox Jews who have highest birth rates on the planet.
Ehh not really. The Haredim are mostly on welfare and do nothing except Torah study all day everyday. Israel will probably be Arab majority in 50 years anyway. Then it'll get VERY interesting.
Many of the Haredim, but not all of course, they do not want to serve in the army and bring any benefit to the state. They only want to enjoy life. Many people in Israel don’t like them for this, because think everyone should fulfill their duty to the state. A religious community that exists only for the sake of faith.
Whatever israel has done before oct7 does not matter, they have all the right to respond. For the first time, we have actual terrorist attacks, becaus terrorists are attacked!
I'm no fan of these zionist settler fucks, but israel does have a huge stock of red lines, unlike iran and russia.
muslim extremism is a problem and israel has a soluton - kill them all.
Ukraine has similar issue with russians, solution - kill them all. There are no good russians, or hezbolla and hamas members, they all need to die.
If you want to go outisde, drink and beer, grill some meat, spend good time with your family in Ukraine or israel - then you go and fuck up your terrorist neighbour in a way that for next 7 generations they will never think about attacking you again.
PS! Today news in Estonia - local taxi driver, a russian was driving Ukrainian guy. They were chatting in russian and taxi driver learned the Ukrainian man had brother fighting in Ukrainian army. russian being all friendly and cool, asked him to have a drink at his place and stabbed the guy 32 times.
All the talk and politics does not cure these people, death does.
So you support Israel murdering 7 million Palestinians living in Gaza and West Bank? Incidentally that's roughly close to 6 million Jews exterminated by Hitler.
If 7 million palestinians take up guns and shoot jews, yes, kill them all.
Our neighbour russia has brought unspeakable horror on it's neighbour for hundreds of years - famine, deportations, mass shooting, wars, you name it. Countries suffered by russia here have tens of millions of population. We hate russians, but none of us shoots rockets at them or murders them on our streets.
palestiane got billions to build a future, instead they supported hamas, who pocketed most, built stupid fucking tunnels to attack israel.
If they spent even a fraction on education instead grooming their children from kindergarten into jihad and killing jews, maybe they would not have their homes leveled today.
I have zero sympathi for zionist cunts, but I have even less for stupid nation of terrorists.
If 7 million Palestinians were all terrorists, I suspect West Bank and Gaza would have been destroyed a long time ago (which is the Zionist dream). In reality most Palestinians are not soldiers or terrorists/freedom fighters.
Also Hamas doesn't rule all Palestinians (Palestinian Authority nominally rules about 5 million in West Bank) or that Israel had blockaded Gaza since 2007. Gaza did not receive billions to invest in awesome education infrastructure. They got aid to keep people from starving and dying from typhoid, cholera and other easily preventable diseases.
And in West Bank Israel is doing its best to kick Palestinians out of their ancestral homes to make more room for "Zionists"...hey isn't that what Russians are doing in Ukraine? So Russia invades Ukraine, Ukraine fights back = GOOD. But Israel destroys Palestinian communities, Palestinians fight back = BAD AND ALL PALESTINIANS MUST DIE?
Strange logic. Lemme guess, you love the Americans too?
Also I seriously hope you are fighting Russians in Ukraine. And if you are, you have to kill Russian women and children who are after all part of a "nation of terrorists"? You wouldn't want to be a hypocrite now would you?
I think you should change your source for information from twitter to something else.
They received billions, fact. Even high tech companies like Mellanox built their factories there, palestinian engineers getting millions from Mellanox sale back in the day etc. Pretty good for inmates, eh?
There was a lot of money available for palestine, but hamas leaders and their families became billionaires instead to tiktok and instagram their Lambos on Doha streets.
Yes, I love america, china, russia and all the colonial cunts who have murdered countless people over time for territory and resources! At any age, none of my kids have been as stupid as what you just wrote.
Once you finish reading a second book in your life, after quran, come back to comment. I can have more intelligent conversation with my socks.
One company hired a handful of programmers. Yep that will stop a blockade.
Number of Palestinians who can work in Israel has dropped due to security measures. It used to 150,000 Palestinians working in Israel, now it's dropped to 40,000 who enter Israel illegally This is even though the West Bank was not involved in October 6 attacks. This is equivalent to GBP 3 billion or 20% of West Bank's GDP.
Israel has deliberately pushed up West Bank unemployment to 35% thus creating more resentful young men who might go down terrorist pathway.
According to EU, Palestinians in West Bank have lost access to not just employment opportunities in Israel but also 82% of ground water, 67% of grazing land and 40% of overall land in West Bank.
Foreign Direct Investment in West Bank (I am excluding Hamas run Gaza) is low (barely 1% of GDP). What little there is usually funded by Qatar and and some other Arab states.
The Palestine Investment Fund is generally regarded as reasonably transparent according to international accounting giants, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Ernst and Young. So much for excess corruption.
There was a major case of embezzlement in 2012 but the culprit was sentenced to 15 years imprisonment.
Not saying Palestinian Authority is perfect, it's not and there is still corruption (but there is corruption everywhere).
But Israel is punishing all Palestinians for actions of Hamas.
Israel is creating conditions for terrorists to appease a group of Zionist extremists.
Yet still want to slaughter every single Palestinian man, woman and child.
Maybe you should go to Israel, pick up a second hand Uzi or Galil and start shooting Palestinians going to work or school to help your Zionist buddies.
As for Islam, I think it's the biggest threat to western Europe in the long term. But the western world is stupid and lazy and deserves what it gets.
Support for Hamas in Gaza tops 80%. Hamas might as well be the Nazi party with a religious bent. They won’t change without passing through the forge of a major event. Think of the nuclear attack on Japan as a forging event. Palestinians have a problem that is worse than that in Israeli society by at least a factor of 1000. That problem is a racist and religious indoctrination that sees no two state solution. It sees one state that is Palestinian. Sunward has said they were getting soft because Israel was starting to open up again. Don’t be fooled by Palestinian propaganda. Hamas wants this war and wants a lot of dead Palestinians.
I do not 'think', it's obvious you want to inform yourself about this conflict. That's why I've posted a suitable reading list, yesterday: https://substack.com/home/post/p-149611813
Tom, I have read a lot about history of those two and let me tell you again, I do not side with those zionist cunts that run israel. I was siding with palestine for years until I figured, that you do not do politics with terrorists and their supports, you kill them.
bibi could of been behind the events that made oct7 so easy to happen to give an excuse for an attack - conflict keeps him in power, like his best friend putin.
palestinians are indoctrinated from home, schools, whole life into hate and killing of jews. That path is hopeless and unless they start acting like russian neighbours, turn the other cheek, grow up, build a different future, there will be no support for them from rest of the world to actually try and change something.
There never will be any winning over israel with violence, but sadly israeli neighbours are mostly still stuck in medieval period, where their women and children are tools of war propaganda, not human beings.
You do not build weapons cache and smuggling tunnels under apartments buildings, or even if you do, at least hide your family in these tunnels for saftery when you climb the roof to shoot rockets at israel. When israel levels those terrorists along with the buildings, then these animals cry, that israel is commiting genocide.
Have you ever tried to work with any of these two 'groups of sources', actually?
Hamas used to have a decent info service at earlier times: with relatively good and reliable figures that could be cross-examined (like, for example, whenever they've tried to hit one of IASF air bases). The PIJ and one or another of Palestinian organisations, too.
Hezbollah even used to have a Historic Division and was quite open about their losses and their successes, back in 2006: a cross-check of their claims for (for example) knocked-out Israeli MBTs, was just some 10-15 off the mark, back then.
Not in touch with them for over a decade, but - and 'in best traditions of the Twelver Shi'a of our times' - if you follow their outlets, you can find out they were also reporting all of their own fatalities, all the time since October the last year.
In comparison to that, the Russians are awful. Unsurprisingly, I've ridiculed, and I'm surely going to continue ridiculing, _very specific_ of Pudding's PRBS-itters (even if not mentioning their names). And I'm going to ridicule the Keystone Cops in Moscow. Because they are ridiculous.
Shouldn't mean I'm always distrusting them: you might want to check the latest two books on air warfare over Ukraine to see some of 'better' Russian info:
You know what russia has done to Ukraine, Baltics or whatever nation it has swallowed in to current russian territory. That horrific history goes way back before israel was even a country.
How many of these nations been shooting rockets at russians or murdering civilians on streets? Or even bothered to spend more than a fraction on defense or attacking russia?
Instead building tunnels and rockets or making terrorist organization leaders billionaires, we went on with our lives to build a future. All that shit that russia and it's predecessor has repeatedly done, we always moved on, not a single machete attack on a russian on our streets, ever.
palestians got all the fucking support to build a future and they just pissed it away. So, fuck them, zero sympathy.
You, Tom, well educated man, start to sound more and more like a palestinian vatnik and whatever israel does, it's always wrong.
We can see that you're angry but I don't think that projecting the current strategies of Russia's neighbours onto Palestinians is the right way to look at it, for multiple reasons.
E.g...
As you've said, Russia's aggression towards its neighbours has been happening for centuries, while Palestine's Israel problem is much newer and its (and its supporters') strategies have had less time to evolve. Palestine's resistance still looks a lot like a wartime occupation resistance movement, which is likely how Russia's European neighbours initially responded for the first however-many decades or centuries of their "Russia problem".
Russia and Israel are culturally different, have different objectives, and do not use exactly the same methods.
Russia's European neighbours are culturally different from Palestinians. Not every population responds to mass trauma in the same way.
It is not the fault of an oppressed population if foreign aid is poorly designed and administered. If, for example, all current aid to Ukraine was being given to a few local oligarchs, how would that be working out?
If a for-profit organisation sets up shop in a poor country it is not charity, it is a self-interested commercial decision, most likely to access cheaper labour.
For the Palestinians there is also the challenge of Israel being unconditionally supported and supplied by the most powerful country on Earth. And when you are relatively powerless and effectively stateless there are limited ways you can fight back, and these get labelled as terrorism, the very label Russia gives to Ukraine's defensive efforts.
Everyone who fought or fights russian imperialism are called terrorists or nazis. I know it well.
Shooting unguided rockets at israel is not a fight for freedom, it's terrorism.
Oct7 was not fight for freedom and a sane person would not support it.
Whatever happened after that, is FAFO. russia and iran might have endless supply of red lines, but israel does not, even less so if it keeps certain people in power.
That is why I think that cheering for one side after oct7 is hypocritical.
Had hamas show restraint for those years and poured the billions into PR, instead tunnels and weapons, people like bibi would never get in power in israel.
Tom: WOW!!!! Long read...wordy....exacting....dare I say brilliant (nah...I dare not).
"Gee...I wonder if this guy writes or something?" (SORRY: dumb redneck Ameri'Kan thought process)
RACISM will always be here, there, everywhere. If everyone was the same skin color and the same religion then RACISM would focus on hair color or eye color. This IS our Human/Primate instinct to hate/distrust ANYTHING that is DIFFERENT from the universal "US." This behavior is not just us primates either....it is with nearly all animals as well and you can find innumerable examples of this throughout nature.
A great example can be found in the Azores (several years ago). A pod of Sperm Whales had basically adopted an interesting "stray." It was a Dolphin with a birth defect, a curved spine. In a dolphin pod if you are different you are not one of them and thus...OUT of the POD. https://usa.oceana.org/blog/sperm-whales-adopt-malformed-dolphin-their-group/
Anyways....rambled on long enough...
Tom: please let us know when we should be expected "WARM SNOW" in California..... Namaste
I think there are three other tangential points at play here that are working right now against peace but will also ramp up problems in the future:
a.) Netanyahu wants to destroy Israeli democracy. He already started when he tried to destroy the independence of the judiciary.
Hence he is a beneficiary of the current apartheid state and the current war. The other beneficiaries are the various right wing Zionist groups including the Haredim - see below.
b.) The west is too stuck in preserving status quo that it has relegated itself to a minor player. Israel, Iran, Turkey, KSA and increasingly Qatar and UAE call the shots in the middle east, not the US. Pre-2022 I would have added the Russians via Syria but they're busy right now being stupid in Ukraine.
There has been a complete lack of acknowledgement in the west that it has lost power here.
c.) Israel's looming demographic issues involving proliferation of Haredim ultra conservatives is changing the political landscape. And it just gets worse in the future - Haredim are 33% of population by 2050 and probably absolute majority by 2100.
Netanyahu's government has already been working even harder to dispossess Arabs in West Bank which is a Haredim objective as part of overall reclaiming ancient Israel.
As Haredim numbers swell, their influence on Israel will be ever more profound.
The stats are scary - average birth rates by women in Israel:
Haredim - 6.6 (on par with Niger which has highest birth rate on the planet).
Arab Israeli - 3
Secular Jewish Israeli - 2 (and dropping)
And for comparison purposes:
OECD: 1.5
US: 1.66
India: 2.03
China: 1.16
Japan: 1.30
South Korea: 0.81
d.) That massive birth rate in Israel means massive population growth and massive stress in a country that has low habitable land in an era of global warming.
Israel population (including Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank)
2024: over 14 million
2050: 22 million
2010: Up to 40 million
Over half of Israel is uninhabitable desert (Negev - 55% of total landmass).
Now with Haredim generally not working or serving in military and being heavily reliant on welfare, Israeli will be at odds to house, feed etc all those extra people.
Something will have to give.
So I predict Israel and middle east will become more turbulent and violent over the coming decades.
Hi tom, thanks for the analysis, Mosaic war, and multidominium . . .
As I read this I see on the news 200 missiles landing in Israel and a mass shooting in Israel captured on CCTV.
It seems very sudden by Iran. I wonder what their end game is ? Israel will not sit back and let this go unchallenged
They are probably reacting to Netanyahu promising on live TV Israel is about to bring the war to Iran proper ...
Given the precedent of Gaza and now Lebanon, it is way past the matter of prestige or appearance of deterrence in the public sphere.
Perhaps some people in Tehran calculated that taking the hits passively no longer ensured the path to least painful endgame.
It's rather they need to do at least something to stay credible.
it's a nice article. i have only one problem with the first third - if giving exactly the same treatment to each and every in mid-east (in the whole world for that matter) also implies that each and every one out there accepts that and behaves like that. historically, there are too many cases where one expects the other party to adhere to one's own standards but the reality is different. what to do - i don't know but, as you've written, that equal treatment for everybody ain't going to happen in our lifetime.
Dear Tom, thanks! It preliminary seems, that this second strike is more effective then first, so they are adapting. How do you see Iranian AD capacity, what is your estimation of their long range ballistic stocks, ballpark, 10 more such strikes, 50, or? Do you feel that US considering elections and all other things will get serioudly involved, or will try to distance, it seems there are some small signs of it? Do you think Turkey may get involved or what could be stance of other Middle East states? It seems Israel is really picking up the fight, and I wonder, considering they can calculate the responses, and probably reacting now with pre-planned actions, what could be their short to middle term goals? The feeling is that some chaos is good opportunity to get some moves on the ground, in terms of gaining better positions or even living space, but nothing more I can see. So there should be also some de-escalation plan probably. Like two steps forward, one step back.
I will always chuckle a little bit where hearing IRI Iranians complain about being treated unequally given how they tread their neighbours ...
Sarcasm aside, this was a fascinating article. It certainly provided a coherent Iranian vision of its regional landscape. Nuanced yet fully coherent. For reasons it reminds me of an anecdote about Suleimani taking Barzani on a tour in Iranian Kurdistan by helicopter.
Mosaic Doctrine. Pre-emption Doctrine. Patience Doctrine. Are you suggesting the top tier of IRGC build useless stuff such as "doctrines" ? And this pre-emption of possible conflicts ? Like a competent general staff ? That cant be ? Why bother when you can keep your obsolete doctrines dating from a previous political regime/state. *insert bitter laugh in Cossack dialect.
Without a doctrine you can't act cohesively in case something goes wrong and you can't also assure that your orders are followed as intentioned.
The first consequences of the Iranian missile attack on Israel - oil prices jumped by 5% at once, to $72-75 per barrel. It is quite obvious that the Russian leadership has hung out festive flags regarding the latest escalation provoked by the Netanyahu clique. Israel has already promised Iran "terrible revenge". https://www.newsru.co.il/israel/1oct2024/israel_usa_0014.html
Thanks for having the courage to write such a sober and objective analysis. The people who really need to read it almost certainly will not.
I just noted that the Iranian missile swarm seems to have been targeted in such a way as to avoid direct hits on major population centres. Undoubtedly for strategic rather than humanitarian reasons. We'll have to wait to see whether that strategy works.
I weep for the Ukrainians living under a continual rain of missiles fired by the Russian scum - which are substantially targeted on civil infrastructure, power stations, hospitals, schools etc. Shame that the USA doesn't see Ukrainians as equally valuable to Israelis.
«Has the IRGC – whether in combination with- or without Hezbollah and Hamas – ever massacred 50,000 Israeli civilians? Are Palestinians, Iranians, and Lebanese worth less than the Israelis?» – Of course, these, etc., Iran does not have such an opportunity to kill so many civilians now. But they were good at doing it in Syria and Iraq. In fact, to arrange a whole genocide against the Sunnis. For these purposes, Qasem Suleimani gathered all possible Shiite mercenaries from around the world who raped, robbed and killed the local population. HUNDREDS of thousands of victims over all these years. I will tell you more that the IRGC in Iran and the Shiite police in Iraq kill protesters with ease. Shoots them by the thousands. Protests in Iran and Iraq happen all the time, because the incompetent marauders of the Ayatollahs have brought both countries to a state of decline. Everyone has already had enough of spending billions on eternal jihads. Although the IRGC is very skillful in diverting the attention of the protesters by organizing provocations, and they then go to smash the US embassies.
To add, IRGC was quite willing and able to supply training and weapons including effective EFP mines to the Iraqi insurgents, which enabled them to kill and maim a few thousand US soldiers. And - to add to the body count, IRGC support for the insurgency made tens of thousands of Iraquis throw away their lives by making them think they have a chance to survive attacking US military. Many bodies were made on both sides of that war by IRGC/QF. I would guess it's in the tens of thousands altogether. Indirectly of course.
Every US citizen should thank Barack Hussein Obama and his "wise" administration, which at one time removed all sanctions from Iran, giving the Shiites hundreds of billions in resources for further aggression in Syria and Iraq.
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/07/16/423562391/lifting-sanctions-will-release-100-billion-to-iran-then-what
By helping the Shiites in Iraq, the US government contributed to the genocide of the Sunnis and the plans of Iran.
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/irans-airbridge-to-syria/
Here’s How Iranian Airlines Are Violating Sanctions
https://www.aei.org/articles/heres-how-iranian-airlines-are-violating-sanctions/
Iran's New Way of War in Syria
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/irans-new-way-war-syria
The US and the EU have effectively nurtured the new aggressor by giving it resources, lifting sanctions, and even helping to destroy Iran's enemies. For example, when the US bombed Mosul. About when the USA coordinated its actions with the Kremlin in Syria. Of course, the Kremlin passed on all this information to the IRGC.
I think the first thank you note should go to GWBush for breaking Iraq and destabilizing Syria, which gave Iran something it could never do on its own - a weak Sunni Mesopotamia, on fire with terror and insurgency. Without that original sin, IRGC could have all the money in the world, it wouldn't be able to go to Syria or Iraq or Lebanon.
Thank him for the spread of Islamist terror throughout the region - with weak governments, who was to stop them? And with millions of refugees from the war including hundreds of thousands of unemployed former Sunni Iraqui soldiers, who could have predicted they would turn to Wahhabi terror?
Nature abhors a vaccum, GW created the vacuum for our enemies to fill. That was the original sin that allowed the rest to follow.
Agreed
Permit me to point out what I think is an error in your approach. (I may be right, I may be wrong, but this does not make me a ban-able troll. Intellectual disagreement isn't trolling....)
It is fine to recount perspectives and grievances. In any dispute each side will have plenty to present. And dueling narratives can be spun out forever, whether in good faith or bad faith. It doesn't get us very far.
The only way out of an infinite chicken-and-egg chain is to apply strict, legal criteria to countries' actions. and leaders' actions , and the legal criteria exist. They just need to be enforced. I'd like to see Netanyahu brought before the international court for violations of humanitarian law in Gaza. Was Israel legally right to use military force against Hamas in Gaza? Law clearly says 'yes'. Was the manner of application of force lawful? It appears the answer may be 'no' on grounds of disproportionality and collective punishment of civilians. Is Netanyahu personally responsible? He should be tried and a court should decide...
Is an Israeli military incursion into Lebanon allowed under international law? It depends on the nature of the incursion, its goals and its proportionality to the threat of missile attacks on Israeli targets. Will Israel's actions be consistent with the right of self-defense or go beyond? This remains to be seen.
The problem is the international courts etc are tools of the west. Thus any dispute of legality will probably side with Israel.
Laws are funny things - written by the rich and powerful to protect them with plenty of loopholes to ensure they can only be applied to the poor.
The ICC seems to be pretty even handed: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/international-criminal-court-seeks-arrest-warrants-for-israeli-pm-netanyahu-three-hamas-leaders.html
Thanks I had forgotten Netanyahu had been indited.
The inherent flaws of the ICC are laws and definitions of crimes it can prosecute. The genocide for example, every little detail of the original Lemkins definition describing crimes perpetrated by the Soviet Union (persecution of groups defined by class) or colonial powers (cultural genocide), or even minor Allied states (mass deportations of Germans) were excluded from the final UN declaration on the crime of genocide. The ICC is doing its work with both hands tied behind its back.
Yes, this what also came to me, and development of the story, Israel (not simply ignoring) even submitted official challenge to the order: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/law/2024/sep/20/israel-challenge-international-criminal-court-icc-arrest-warrant-benjamin-netanyahu
So, here's the thing, international laws do not and cannot work as the framework for stability. Why? Because laws have to have someone with the power to enforce them. Not to get biblical/koranic, but it's like the order of creation. First there arises (is created) a power which can exercise a monopoly over violence in a given geographic area (your parents house, the local militia, a country, whatever). Then relying on that monopoly over violence, that power gets to set rules and punish transgressions. Then if the power is big enough, smart enough and wants stability, it writes down those rules and creates a bureaucracy to enforce them. And then, sometimes, this power decides that the laws apply to itself as well as it's subjects equally. And this is where we get to LAW as we understand it.
Problem with "international law" is that it's a lie. There is no power that can enforce those laws onto everyone. At best they are voluntary, and even for those who sign the treaties, there is no one to force them to comply. Unless they are a small power and lager powers decide that it's in their interests to enforce the "law". So, international law is a legalistic fig leaf to cover up the usual international power politics.
And this is will be until there is a power which can enforce a monopoly over violence across the whole world, or until an omnipotent God/aliens finally show their face and decide to soend their lives settling the affairs of humans (If I were them, I would pass).
It is a simplistic view of law and order, indoctrinated by, let us call it "propaganda" of certain groups, interested in keeping the monopoly.
In reality there are multiple examples of courts disconnected from enforcement, that would work quite well and on voluntarily basis. For example some commercial arbitrary courts in Europe. Parties come to this process by mutual agreement. Though sometimes would not follow the decisions, especially if "protected" by national state. But the reason for this process to work, is that bigger company would not dissapear tomorrow, so is interested to keep things resolved and continue to work on international market.
Other examples would be brehon law in Ireland, they would resolve disputes of sovereigns as well.
Gangs in post Soviet space were having a kind of "law", or rather dispute process that would identify who is "right". This was to avoid "bespredel", chaos and disorder, and sometimes gangs would punish their own members accused of "bespredel" in order to avoid gang wars. Of course this one rarely included any proofs, rather verbal agruments, some major P. is quite versed in that one, and this what he does actually whenever he speaks.
In US history declaring someone outlaw was quite effective, as one could take anything from such person including life without any consequences, as this was literally out law.
The court process itself is quite formal and logical process, and would often reveal logical fallacies that are present in propaganda of any side. And could be made even more so, as some proponents consider that only logic is enough, not even any written law, to bring in justice. For example a person that was found guilty of consious murder, could not logically claim that it is unjust to take life from the person, as this would contradict own acts. And then could not possibly and justly object against death penalty to such perpetrator, etc.
The gangs of USSR/Russia is actually the perfect example of what I was talking about (and having come from that culture - USSR, not vorovskoi mir, I know the subject pretty well).
The "Thieves Law" or "ponyatiya" are a set of "understandings" about how relationships between entities that wield power (gangs/gangsters) should work. They are seemingly rigid but in practice the amount of "justice" one receives in such a "court proceeding" is proportional to ones power (respect+money+connections+guns). If there was a third party "adjudicating" the dispute, then relationship with and interests of that party also played a role. Without a written set of laws that are backed up by a monopoly of violence, its just a business negotiation with guns, and some lip service paid to the "law".
A basic principle of law is that everyone is equal under it. The thing that assures this equality is the law giver having monopoly of violence over the claimants, otherwise it's an arbitrary sham where the "biggest man" wins whether right or wrong - like in Vorovskoi Mir. Or to put it simpler, thieves law is bespredel but without the shooting.
Well, this may make a long discussion, and I would like to cut it short, for we have different education.
Ask yourself a few questions:
Current ru legal practice, having perfect enforcement and written laws, is it really justice or same "one receives in such "court proceeding" proportional to ones power"? And by the way are you sure that practice of "gang laws" was so flexible? It was not justice, just because people outside of gangs were not considered equals, but between gangs, without enforcement and written laws, it was and is working pretty well.
And here comes a question, why societies engage in lawmaking? What is the interest of individuals?
When you think of it, you may see, equality is not a basic principle of law, equality is an essence of justice. And law, currently, is a system to provide justice. But ideal of justice exist in our consiousness independently of law and law enforcement.
There are many more immediate things there, but is already too long discussion.
I see you are versed in former USSR, so they also had some perfect concepts of law and justice. You may read Vladik Nersesyants, “Mathematics of Freedom” to jump-start your law phylosophy education, though it may be too difficult to read at times.
Or read Murray Rothbard, "Ethics of Liberty", a much lighter read as to me.
Russia certainly has a proper legal system in the technical organizational sense, it's just corrupt as hell and used as as an arbitrary tool of oppression.
I should probably mention that "equality under the law" is not the same as "equality" in a broad sense, it's is the principle that laws are applied equally, as in everyone has the right to the same due process. At least in principle.
Hi Al, Thanks for your thoughts. I think you make a fair practical point, but then fall into a false-choice fallacy. Let me explain my opinion why.
You make a fair practical point that enforcement of international laws is problematic. But then you pivot to an all-or-nothing false choice fallacy by arguing that because there is no single absolute power that can enforce international law absolutely, international law is completely unenforceable and vacuous.
Once I put it that clearly, I think the error of logic shows through. No practical person thinks that international law will ever be enforced absolutely, or applied with absolute fairness.
That doesn't mean that international laws and norms can't work to some extent and international bodies, treaties and customs can't at least impose meaningful incentives and disincentives on states' actions.
Complexity is hard to digest. Imperfect answers that aren't solutions are frustrating, but they can be building blocks for progress.
Even totally nonviolent sanctions, boycotts, expulsions from organizations, etc. can impose costs.
Thanks.
I think we agree on most of that, my quibble is with language (which is inexorably tied to how we process reality).
What you describe above are various ways that countries and people within societies push each other to do the "right thing", and impose consequences for doing the "wrong thing". But that's fundamentally different from criminal process which IHL purports to provide.
Highly, interesting, structured and logical. Many thanks Tom!!!
With the recent Israeli incursions into Lebanon and Iranian attacks on Israel, I can't help but notice that the Biden-Blinken plan of "preventing a regional war" now lies in complete shambles. All this because they refused to use any of their leverage over Netanyahu. Will they learn from these failures? - Nope!
Problem with US and west in general is it's stuck in 1967 when it comes to Israel, 1979 when it comes to Iran and 1923 when it comes to Iraq and Syria.
These equate to roughly:
1923 Paulet–Newcombe Agreement
1967 Six Day War
1979 Iranian Revolution
Hence it's merely reactive and no longer a proactive player in regional affairs. True power in the region is now contested by Iran, KSA, UAE, Israel and Turkey.
There is no solution to this conflict. As Connor McLeod said: "in the end there can be only one." And it will be Bibi. Just kidding) But seriously, without resolving the issue with Iran, the entire Near East will be permanently destabilized by the IRGC. The Iranian regime can only be stopped by force.
I would prefer to say permanently destabilised by Israel.
Nothing gets resolved if Iran was swallowed by ocean tomorrow.
Israel is sitting on a demographic timebomb and literally needs "lebensraum" for its burgeoning population of Haredim ultra-orthodox Jews who have highest birth rates on the planet.
Ehh not really. The Haredim are mostly on welfare and do nothing except Torah study all day everyday. Israel will probably be Arab majority in 50 years anyway. Then it'll get VERY interesting.
Many of the Haredim, but not all of course, they do not want to serve in the army and bring any benefit to the state. They only want to enjoy life. Many people in Israel don’t like them for this, because think everyone should fulfill their duty to the state. A religious community that exists only for the sake of faith.
Haredim vote. Netanyahu 's own government is in coalition with several extreme right wing parties .
Democracy is a numbers game. More voters = more political influence.
Arabs do not breed at rates Haredim do - 3 children for Arabs v 6.6 for Haredim.
Israeli secular Jews have 2 children per woman (replacement rate).
Haredim will become a massive economic problem for Israel in the future as most of them don't work (only 30% of working age men).
Literally they are breeding themselves into power whilst turning Israel into a giant welfare state.
And all with an insatiable thirst to retake ancient Israeli lands.
Whatever israel has done before oct7 does not matter, they have all the right to respond. For the first time, we have actual terrorist attacks, becaus terrorists are attacked!
I'm no fan of these zionist settler fucks, but israel does have a huge stock of red lines, unlike iran and russia.
muslim extremism is a problem and israel has a soluton - kill them all.
Ukraine has similar issue with russians, solution - kill them all. There are no good russians, or hezbolla and hamas members, they all need to die.
If you want to go outisde, drink and beer, grill some meat, spend good time with your family in Ukraine or israel - then you go and fuck up your terrorist neighbour in a way that for next 7 generations they will never think about attacking you again.
PS! Today news in Estonia - local taxi driver, a russian was driving Ukrainian guy. They were chatting in russian and taxi driver learned the Ukrainian man had brother fighting in Ukrainian army. russian being all friendly and cool, asked him to have a drink at his place and stabbed the guy 32 times.
All the talk and politics does not cure these people, death does.
So you support Israel murdering 7 million Palestinians living in Gaza and West Bank? Incidentally that's roughly close to 6 million Jews exterminated by Hitler.
So does two Holocausts make a right?
If 7 million palestinians take up guns and shoot jews, yes, kill them all.
Our neighbour russia has brought unspeakable horror on it's neighbour for hundreds of years - famine, deportations, mass shooting, wars, you name it. Countries suffered by russia here have tens of millions of population. We hate russians, but none of us shoots rockets at them or murders them on our streets.
palestiane got billions to build a future, instead they supported hamas, who pocketed most, built stupid fucking tunnels to attack israel.
If they spent even a fraction on education instead grooming their children from kindergarten into jihad and killing jews, maybe they would not have their homes leveled today.
I have zero sympathi for zionist cunts, but I have even less for stupid nation of terrorists.
If 7 million Palestinians were all terrorists, I suspect West Bank and Gaza would have been destroyed a long time ago (which is the Zionist dream). In reality most Palestinians are not soldiers or terrorists/freedom fighters.
Also Hamas doesn't rule all Palestinians (Palestinian Authority nominally rules about 5 million in West Bank) or that Israel had blockaded Gaza since 2007. Gaza did not receive billions to invest in awesome education infrastructure. They got aid to keep people from starving and dying from typhoid, cholera and other easily preventable diseases.
And in West Bank Israel is doing its best to kick Palestinians out of their ancestral homes to make more room for "Zionists"...hey isn't that what Russians are doing in Ukraine? So Russia invades Ukraine, Ukraine fights back = GOOD. But Israel destroys Palestinian communities, Palestinians fight back = BAD AND ALL PALESTINIANS MUST DIE?
Strange logic. Lemme guess, you love the Americans too?
Also I seriously hope you are fighting Russians in Ukraine. And if you are, you have to kill Russian women and children who are after all part of a "nation of terrorists"? You wouldn't want to be a hypocrite now would you?
I think you should change your source for information from twitter to something else.
They received billions, fact. Even high tech companies like Mellanox built their factories there, palestinian engineers getting millions from Mellanox sale back in the day etc. Pretty good for inmates, eh?
There was a lot of money available for palestine, but hamas leaders and their families became billionaires instead to tiktok and instagram their Lambos on Doha streets.
Yes, I love america, china, russia and all the colonial cunts who have murdered countless people over time for territory and resources! At any age, none of my kids have been as stupid as what you just wrote.
Once you finish reading a second book in your life, after quran, come back to comment. I can have more intelligent conversation with my socks.
One company hired a handful of programmers. Yep that will stop a blockade.
Number of Palestinians who can work in Israel has dropped due to security measures. It used to 150,000 Palestinians working in Israel, now it's dropped to 40,000 who enter Israel illegally This is even though the West Bank was not involved in October 6 attacks. This is equivalent to GBP 3 billion or 20% of West Bank's GDP.
Israel has deliberately pushed up West Bank unemployment to 35% thus creating more resentful young men who might go down terrorist pathway.
According to EU, Palestinians in West Bank have lost access to not just employment opportunities in Israel but also 82% of ground water, 67% of grazing land and 40% of overall land in West Bank.
Foreign Direct Investment in West Bank (I am excluding Hamas run Gaza) is low (barely 1% of GDP). What little there is usually funded by Qatar and and some other Arab states.
The Palestine Investment Fund is generally regarded as reasonably transparent according to international accounting giants, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Ernst and Young. So much for excess corruption.
There was a major case of embezzlement in 2012 but the culprit was sentenced to 15 years imprisonment.
Not saying Palestinian Authority is perfect, it's not and there is still corruption (but there is corruption everywhere).
But Israel is punishing all Palestinians for actions of Hamas.
Israel is creating conditions for terrorists to appease a group of Zionist extremists.
Yet still want to slaughter every single Palestinian man, woman and child.
Maybe you should go to Israel, pick up a second hand Uzi or Galil and start shooting Palestinians going to work or school to help your Zionist buddies.
As for Islam, I think it's the biggest threat to western Europe in the long term. But the western world is stupid and lazy and deserves what it gets.
I'm an atheist by the way.
Oh and have you joined Ukrainian army yet?
Support for Hamas in Gaza tops 80%. Hamas might as well be the Nazi party with a religious bent. They won’t change without passing through the forge of a major event. Think of the nuclear attack on Japan as a forging event. Palestinians have a problem that is worse than that in Israeli society by at least a factor of 1000. That problem is a racist and religious indoctrination that sees no two state solution. It sees one state that is Palestinian. Sunward has said they were getting soft because Israel was starting to open up again. Don’t be fooled by Palestinian propaganda. Hamas wants this war and wants a lot of dead Palestinians.
I do not 'think', it's obvious you want to inform yourself about this conflict. That's why I've posted a suitable reading list, yesterday: https://substack.com/home/post/p-149611813
Tom, I have read a lot about history of those two and let me tell you again, I do not side with those zionist cunts that run israel. I was siding with palestine for years until I figured, that you do not do politics with terrorists and their supports, you kill them.
bibi could of been behind the events that made oct7 so easy to happen to give an excuse for an attack - conflict keeps him in power, like his best friend putin.
palestinians are indoctrinated from home, schools, whole life into hate and killing of jews. That path is hopeless and unless they start acting like russian neighbours, turn the other cheek, grow up, build a different future, there will be no support for them from rest of the world to actually try and change something.
There never will be any winning over israel with violence, but sadly israeli neighbours are mostly still stuck in medieval period, where their women and children are tools of war propaganda, not human beings.
You do not build weapons cache and smuggling tunnels under apartments buildings, or even if you do, at least hide your family in these tunnels for saftery when you climb the roof to shoot rockets at israel. When israel levels those terrorists along with the buildings, then these animals cry, that israel is commiting genocide.
Enough rant from me.
You know, this is why so few people outside Westerners have favourable feelings toward Ukraine.
You want to do to the rest of the world exactly what Russia does to you. And even worse.
That is quite the solution to problems....
Tom, one thing I would like to ask you.
russian news, numbers, propaganda it's all bs for you, but hamas/hezbolla is worth quoting and using to attack israel?
Have you ever tried to work with any of these two 'groups of sources', actually?
Hamas used to have a decent info service at earlier times: with relatively good and reliable figures that could be cross-examined (like, for example, whenever they've tried to hit one of IASF air bases). The PIJ and one or another of Palestinian organisations, too.
Hezbollah even used to have a Historic Division and was quite open about their losses and their successes, back in 2006: a cross-check of their claims for (for example) knocked-out Israeli MBTs, was just some 10-15 off the mark, back then.
Not in touch with them for over a decade, but - and 'in best traditions of the Twelver Shi'a of our times' - if you follow their outlets, you can find out they were also reporting all of their own fatalities, all the time since October the last year.
In comparison to that, the Russians are awful. Unsurprisingly, I've ridiculed, and I'm surely going to continue ridiculing, _very specific_ of Pudding's PRBS-itters (even if not mentioning their names). And I'm going to ridicule the Keystone Cops in Moscow. Because they are ridiculous.
Shouldn't mean I'm always distrusting them: you might want to check the latest two books on air warfare over Ukraine to see some of 'better' Russian info:
Volume 6 is already out: https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-6-the-air-war-february-march-2022.php
Volume 7 is to follow this month: https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-7-air-war-2023.php
You are into history, right?
You know what russia has done to Ukraine, Baltics or whatever nation it has swallowed in to current russian territory. That horrific history goes way back before israel was even a country.
How many of these nations been shooting rockets at russians or murdering civilians on streets? Or even bothered to spend more than a fraction on defense or attacking russia?
Instead building tunnels and rockets or making terrorist organization leaders billionaires, we went on with our lives to build a future. All that shit that russia and it's predecessor has repeatedly done, we always moved on, not a single machete attack on a russian on our streets, ever.
palestians got all the fucking support to build a future and they just pissed it away. So, fuck them, zero sympathy.
You, Tom, well educated man, start to sound more and more like a palestinian vatnik and whatever israel does, it's always wrong.
We can see that you're angry but I don't think that projecting the current strategies of Russia's neighbours onto Palestinians is the right way to look at it, for multiple reasons.
E.g...
As you've said, Russia's aggression towards its neighbours has been happening for centuries, while Palestine's Israel problem is much newer and its (and its supporters') strategies have had less time to evolve. Palestine's resistance still looks a lot like a wartime occupation resistance movement, which is likely how Russia's European neighbours initially responded for the first however-many decades or centuries of their "Russia problem".
Russia and Israel are culturally different, have different objectives, and do not use exactly the same methods.
Russia's European neighbours are culturally different from Palestinians. Not every population responds to mass trauma in the same way.
It is not the fault of an oppressed population if foreign aid is poorly designed and administered. If, for example, all current aid to Ukraine was being given to a few local oligarchs, how would that be working out?
If a for-profit organisation sets up shop in a poor country it is not charity, it is a self-interested commercial decision, most likely to access cheaper labour.
Thank you, great response.
Religious differences might play a bigger role here with israeli neighbours.
For the Palestinians there is also the challenge of Israel being unconditionally supported and supplied by the most powerful country on Earth. And when you are relatively powerless and effectively stateless there are limited ways you can fight back, and these get labelled as terrorism, the very label Russia gives to Ukraine's defensive efforts.
Everyone who fought or fights russian imperialism are called terrorists or nazis. I know it well.
Shooting unguided rockets at israel is not a fight for freedom, it's terrorism.
Oct7 was not fight for freedom and a sane person would not support it.
Whatever happened after that, is FAFO. russia and iran might have endless supply of red lines, but israel does not, even less so if it keeps certain people in power.
That is why I think that cheering for one side after oct7 is hypocritical.
Had hamas show restraint for those years and poured the billions into PR, instead tunnels and weapons, people like bibi would never get in power in israel.
None of these countries, except for Ukraine, are being occupied. Chechnya was and they did exactly what Palestinians are doing.
Is OK. Keep on ignoring reality, continue converting victims to perpetrators.
A third of the Austrian electoral body did the same, last Sunday: why should you be an exception?
"Palestinian vatnik" is a new phrase to me
Tom: WOW!!!! Long read...wordy....exacting....dare I say brilliant (nah...I dare not).
"Gee...I wonder if this guy writes or something?" (SORRY: dumb redneck Ameri'Kan thought process)
RACISM will always be here, there, everywhere. If everyone was the same skin color and the same religion then RACISM would focus on hair color or eye color. This IS our Human/Primate instinct to hate/distrust ANYTHING that is DIFFERENT from the universal "US." This behavior is not just us primates either....it is with nearly all animals as well and you can find innumerable examples of this throughout nature.
A great example can be found in the Azores (several years ago). A pod of Sperm Whales had basically adopted an interesting "stray." It was a Dolphin with a birth defect, a curved spine. In a dolphin pod if you are different you are not one of them and thus...OUT of the POD. https://usa.oceana.org/blog/sperm-whales-adopt-malformed-dolphin-their-group/
Anyways....rambled on long enough...
Tom: please let us know when we should be expected "WARM SNOW" in California..... Namaste
Interesting analysis.
I think there are three other tangential points at play here that are working right now against peace but will also ramp up problems in the future:
a.) Netanyahu wants to destroy Israeli democracy. He already started when he tried to destroy the independence of the judiciary.
Hence he is a beneficiary of the current apartheid state and the current war. The other beneficiaries are the various right wing Zionist groups including the Haredim - see below.
b.) The west is too stuck in preserving status quo that it has relegated itself to a minor player. Israel, Iran, Turkey, KSA and increasingly Qatar and UAE call the shots in the middle east, not the US. Pre-2022 I would have added the Russians via Syria but they're busy right now being stupid in Ukraine.
There has been a complete lack of acknowledgement in the west that it has lost power here.
c.) Israel's looming demographic issues involving proliferation of Haredim ultra conservatives is changing the political landscape. And it just gets worse in the future - Haredim are 33% of population by 2050 and probably absolute majority by 2100.
Netanyahu's government has already been working even harder to dispossess Arabs in West Bank which is a Haredim objective as part of overall reclaiming ancient Israel.
As Haredim numbers swell, their influence on Israel will be ever more profound.
The stats are scary - average birth rates by women in Israel:
Haredim - 6.6 (on par with Niger which has highest birth rate on the planet).
Arab Israeli - 3
Secular Jewish Israeli - 2 (and dropping)
And for comparison purposes:
OECD: 1.5
US: 1.66
India: 2.03
China: 1.16
Japan: 1.30
South Korea: 0.81
d.) That massive birth rate in Israel means massive population growth and massive stress in a country that has low habitable land in an era of global warming.
Israel population (including Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank)
2024: over 14 million
2050: 22 million
2010: Up to 40 million
Over half of Israel is uninhabitable desert (Negev - 55% of total landmass).
Now with Haredim generally not working or serving in military and being heavily reliant on welfare, Israeli will be at odds to house, feed etc all those extra people.
Something will have to give.
So I predict Israel and middle east will become more turbulent and violent over the coming decades.