Ukraina has fought a SEAD and DEAD campaign against Russia for more than a year. It has seriously hurt the Russian AD. Now the Russians has less than they need. They are also facing a difficult decision. Protect various important installations and cities against long range drone attacks. Or protect Crimea against medium range. Dammed if you do, damned if you don’t. At the same time Ukraine has more drones for close combat. This must be uncomfortable for Russia. In the long run, if this can be sustained they will loose. But there is a big if there.
This war has extremely light logistics. The trop and vehicle density îs incredibile low for a war beteeen industrial states. 1 km of front is held by 20-30 soldiers at most. Isolated pockets of resistance are resuplied by drops of 10 kgs per night.
I suppose that air dropping supplies (either by drones or by airplanes) could be the last resort for armed forces. And at such low density of troops, it's not impossible - but when you add the 1000+ km front into the equation, the amounts become really large
You don’t need to interdict everything. If you interdict Crimea what shall those forces (and the whole occupation regime) do? Over time they cannot function and sustain their control. And precious few can/will go the seaside this summer. And Crimea is almost an island. Should the forces cut and run like they did in 2022? Maybe smart, but that is a prestige loss as well as a territorial loss. Thus, if the Ukrainians can maintain the geographical limited interdiction that will seriously hurt Russia. Total interdiction is not needed.
Drone resupply either by UGV or quadcopter is fairly standard for both sides on the stretches of the frontline where there's the heaviest fighting. The trucks being attacked are destined for the bulk of the Russian army which is positioned much further back from the fighting.
Ukrainian soldiers are rotated at 40-60 days and some even after 100 or 200 days. Rotations take 2-3 days of slow movement. Their supply is done almost entirely by drones. The Ukrainian troops in Konstantinivka are re-supplied now only by drones.
The small trop density allows this resupply without high duel consumption
You have to remember there are close to a million Russian soldiers behind the frontline. They never go within 15-20km of it, unless they are unlucky enough to be ordered into the meat grinder. Beyond that distance it is, as they say, a target rich environment.
Good post, earthen road crossings will have Russian AD/CUAS defense positions and coverage, tactical problem which have offensive counter for Ukraine.
At Chongar and Armiansk there doesn't seem to be much effective AD.
Ukraina has fought a SEAD and DEAD campaign against Russia for more than a year. It has seriously hurt the Russian AD. Now the Russians has less than they need. They are also facing a difficult decision. Protect various important installations and cities against long range drone attacks. Or protect Crimea against medium range. Dammed if you do, damned if you don’t. At the same time Ukraine has more drones for close combat. This must be uncomfortable for Russia. In the long run, if this can be sustained they will loose. But there is a big if there.
This war has extremely light logistics. The trop and vehicle density îs incredibile low for a war beteeen industrial states. 1 km of front is held by 20-30 soldiers at most. Isolated pockets of resistance are resuplied by drops of 10 kgs per night.
Suffocating such logistics is incredibile hard.
I suppose that air dropping supplies (either by drones or by airplanes) could be the last resort for armed forces. And at such low density of troops, it's not impossible - but when you add the 1000+ km front into the equation, the amounts become really large
In the end, there's still 700k soldier to feed and otherwise support.
Ukraine now interdicts Crimeea and a small coast area. They don’t have the resources to block the rest area for the entire frontline.
You don’t need to interdict everything. If you interdict Crimea what shall those forces (and the whole occupation regime) do? Over time they cannot function and sustain their control. And precious few can/will go the seaside this summer. And Crimea is almost an island. Should the forces cut and run like they did in 2022? Maybe smart, but that is a prestige loss as well as a territorial loss. Thus, if the Ukrainians can maintain the geographical limited interdiction that will seriously hurt Russia. Total interdiction is not needed.
Soldiers will be the last persona to leave Crimeea. They requiere less than civilians and can go a much spartan diet.
The Ukrainian soldiers and civilians stay put during sirges and artilerie barages yet the Russian one will leave because gas is hard to get.
The interdiction extends from Donetsk to Crimea. A lot of Russia's army is impacted to varying degrees.
Drone resupply either by UGV or quadcopter is fairly standard for both sides on the stretches of the frontline where there's the heaviest fighting. The trucks being attacked are destined for the bulk of the Russian army which is positioned much further back from the fighting.
Ukrainian soldiers are rotated at 40-60 days and some even after 100 or 200 days. Rotations take 2-3 days of slow movement. Their supply is done almost entirely by drones. The Ukrainian troops in Konstantinivka are re-supplied now only by drones.
The small trop density allows this resupply without high duel consumption
Fewer people and none of the mechanized and artillery fuel and ammo requirement before drones.
You have to remember there are close to a million Russian soldiers behind the frontline. They never go within 15-20km of it, unless they are unlucky enough to be ordered into the meat grinder. Beyond that distance it is, as they say, a target rich environment.