Well, I think it's objectively true, and not a "pipe dream", that the Russians are holding most of the cards now, as our orange president said, and that Ukraine is holding very few. If anyone has a chance of achieving "maximalist demands", it's not Ukraine. This is the result of having let this war go on so long. Ukraine's negotiating position was just totally different in late 2022 when Mark Milley prophetically suggested that would be the right time for negotiations.
A big factor in how this developed is a widespread and sustained misperception of the military situation and of the trajectory of the military situation. In reality, the military situation has gone steadily downhill since late 2022 practically without a break, and the Russians have had the strategic initiative for 15 months straight without even a pause. So was it really a good idea to keep the war going? What has been gained from that? Has the bargaining position of Ukraine gotten better, or worse? Is more or less Ukrainian territory under occupation?
And if it goes on for another half year, what will it look like then? Even worse?
Our president is a boor and a bully, which was on full display last Friday. But I'm not sure that he's wrong that the war needs to end ASAP. To achieve that, it will be necessary to make significant concessions to the Russians. Because we wasted the cards we held at the end of 2022, and even a year ago Ukraine's position was far better than it is now. It's a horrible injustice, but it is what it is. It's the result not only of Putin's undoubted evil, but of a series of spectacularly bad decisions made in Washington and Kyiv, and it's about time we faced up to it, in my opinion. Tomorrow will only be worse. Putin, unfortunately, understands that, and will drive a hard bargain.
Putins goals were never a few oblasts, his goal is to eradicate Ukraine as a nation and as an identity. Until our dear leaders in the West acknowledge this nothing will change.
Anyone who believes a deal can be reached with putin does not know history, does not know putin, and does not know russians.
Well, Putin was willing to at least look like he is negotiating. I think he does feel some pressure, but I agree it’s not enough. Which will of course sooner or later frustrate 47. Ukraina has few enough bargain points. But Putins death, Lukashenkos death, something happening in Caucasus… things can happen. And while Russia manages so far, this isn’t fun for them either. I agree that the best Ukraine can do is to continue the fight.
I think Ukraine had a lot of bargaining power in 2022, especially after the brilliant operation in Kharkiv oblast'. The Russians were hurting and were very eager to make a deal.
Even now I think a deal can be made. There's no evidence that the Russians, even now, are demanding "complete capitulation". Putin has said he wants all of the 4 oblasts he annexed, Ukrainian neutrality, and other stuff which was in the Istanbul Agreement which wasn't signed. There's a lot of daylight between that and "complete capitulation". He has never said he wants to absorb all of Ukraine into Russia, and he would be an idiot if that's what he wanted -- it would destroy Russia from within, and I'm sure he knows that.
The Ukrainian negotiators all said that the Number 1 issue for Russia was always NATO; that territory was not all that high on the list.
To keep fighting is to destroy the country. That's the worst possible approach. Of course a deal needs to be made -- everyone in Ukraine already says that, including Zelensky. A deal will require painful concessions, but we are where we are.
3 years into its 3 day special military operation, the "2nd best military in the world" has just received it's 2nd tranche of North Korean soldiers and is using donkeys in its logistics network.
It's a hard war no doubt for Ukrainins, but point to the part where it looks like Russia is winning for me
They are steadily gaining ground. Steadily keeping up the pressure. Avoiding too large losses by their standards. Exhausting Ukraine. May lead to victory. May not.
My view is this, putin isn't bargaining for any permanent deal, he does not accept Ukraines existence.
He's playing for time to rearm and give his economy a rest, nothing more. A ceasefire today would be immediately violated, and blamed on Ukraine - Ukraine would be barred from returning fire by the US while the russian attacks would be ignored.
Anyone really believe the US didn't know there were russians in Krym, Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol in 2014? They looked the other way for 8 years because it was convenient. Meanwhile russia tried to rearm and reform its military, luckily they failed at the latter.
We must put this idea of a peace deal with Russia out of our minds, this will end in victory or defeat.
Thank you for your razor sharp assessment. I feel your pain. Thank lord for all the sane and sensible americans in the US! Let us all hope that this presidency period will just become a sad parathesis in your proud history.
we see history spiral - making GB great again. by now they are outplaying weak US presidents on their way to top again after 90-100 years of influence losses.
if they manage to become a bridge between the US and Ukraine now - they will be definitely enjoying their role of real winners of the war and some 50-70 years on top of world influencers
Thank you so much. The American defense industries' bosses are already grumbling and fear biiiig losses as Europeans will hesitate to buy "American" ...
defense industry maybe will enjoy some European orders, especially Patriot missiles and some other AD stuff.
but Tesla had shown 40% sales drop in EU in Jan. Looking forward to see Feb figures - will be fun. By now EU was protecting its market from Chinese electro cars, but I have this strange feeling it wont be hold for too long...
Here they say that European buyers might wait for the the Model Y’s upcoming local launch which could explain why some are delaying EV purchases. Some sureys indicate the actions of Elon Musk may also be deterring EV buyers.
perfect explanation Mask style: i have never seen Mercedes sales drop by 40% on expectations new model to appear on the market. same with IPhone or Windows
The explanation is not as much that people are buying less, because they wait for the new model, but rather there are inventory issues, the old model is not available as much anymore, the new one is not yet available, will be delivered in March. But we'll see how the numbers look after a longer period.
wherez the laughing emoji.... here in Uk and Europe Musks name is MUD. he is toxic, and, Tesla is the epitome of him. generally speaking Europeans hate nothing more than people who do NAZI SALUTES
Yes, if Patriots can be purchased it will help US defense contractors. But Europe is fast developing it's own capabilities. For example the SAMP/T and Iris/T SLX.
They are of a bit different functionality, but anyway - great news. I stick to the idea of European collective defense without US involvement. There is industrial, scientific, military and intellectual potential for this
Yes Tesla has dropped, but be aware that January numbers are always low, because December is high selling month. You need some months to really spot a trend. One can hope of course.
The stock market shows the European defence companies getting their valuation rocketing up since the Vance speech in Munich. Conversely, American defence companies are losing 20+ percent of their share price during the same period...
it makes HUGE commercial, economic and political good sense for EU companies to recommenxe design and build of our OWN military equipment and ammunition.
Im old, so i remember the UK making lots of military equipment, i even remember being interviewed (for an IT job) by a tank manufacturer in the UK.
"where theres a will therea a way", and, UK has a new determination to get equipped again... left and right wing agree, the public even more so
Let's hope that Germany and France will rearm quickly as well. It's crazy to see the tiny Greece having accumulated more tanks than Germany and France together, and have the second largest air force in Europe...
What irks me is the complete lack of representation of Greece in the London summit. That hesitancy is due to a large Russian-friendly segment of voters and the opposition which cries every time the government dares to send anything to Ukraine
Indeed, there's alot of bad blood between Ottoman Empire/Turkey and Greece, going back more than two centuries and multiple wars (and I'm speaking only about the modern state of Greece, not going as far back as the East Roman Empire)
It was a meeting of the coward and a hero as somebody said. American national myth of the American hero fighting for freedom and justice is dead and it is Trump who killed it.
unfortunately around 50% native Americans fully support this "suite clown". they are less interested in war somewhere in the Europes ass than Mexican immigrants or making Canada 51st state
In this case we have a result of "ochlokratia" - rule of the crowd. Poorly educated people are enchanted by Trump's lies and promises. Evidently supporting a short-sighted totally immoral person will be disastrous for the USA itself. But in the long run, not immediately.
It is not a support, it is Trump-isch sick idea: deal-no deal. He wants to play the White dove role, but he can’t press Pu with his nucs. So, very logical then is to press the weaker one - Ukraine with no nucs. Deal as the goal, deal as the essence, kind of the deal and its terms/conditions - doesn’t matter.
The US with Trump will lose all its influence and will be naturally downed to isolated regional leader: like a crazy MMA neighbor (angry, drunk, unfriendly- better not have a deal with). Crystal clear the US will no way use its nucs, as well as they will not invade any country - neither 🇨🇦 nor 🇲🇽 or 🇵🇦. All its allies will have to build new alliances, maybe EU or at least its parts like Pl, Lt, Lv, Es, Cz, Sw, Fl and Nw maybe De, Gb, It and Nl, Dm will form some kind of NATO- or Eastern-North Europe.
Let me completely agree with Your thoughts about NATO and disagree with the rest:
1. nice concept until first dead marines will arrive to Arizona or Texas. US society is extremely sensitive to dead men - after Vietnam, Afganistan, Iraq. How much time will pass from the first #deadHeroe to #fckTrump? Btw, any ideas who is he going to fight in Canada: white bear sect, penguin racism?
Greenland: Danish pirats? Panama: slavery and people traders, Chinese PMCs or trade ships?
2. the US will not be able to get a UNO mandate for Mexico, Panama - whatever country. so potential "Mexico in 3 days" will be transformed in some bloody clashes at Juarez. any allies in this adventure? nope - personal responsibility of Trump. Good deal? I doubt it.
3. which automatically means Trump to be marked not as the White dove, but Hitler-isch Pu partner who brought a war to North America first time since 1776 or 1861.
4. to divide the USA into 2+ countries in order to be elected for the 3rd term? possible, but a bit risky. Dont You think?
nationaliatic fevour will hide enough of the pain of the deaths for long enough. Greenland will fall without many deaths, and, nobody anywhere will be able to do sod all about it.
by the time America has leftt NATO, his power will be entrenched, no generals will stand up to him, congress is already useless, impeachment doesn't remove him, and, riots on the streets will play into his authoritarian hands \ game plan.
your hypothesis still has the rule of current laws in charge, but, nime of that wil stop him, and, he wont resign under any circumstances.
school \ university protesters have been told rhey will be arrested and expelled from today. remind you of Hong Kong?
i know this spunds absurd, but, its happened elsewhere in the world, many many times, thinking the USA ia exempt from such malign actors is blind.
definitely they have. FSB/KGB is unable to work with their agents without any compromat. but agent Trump plays so open for Russians, that he is running out of time until DeepState and elites will begin to play against him. i think he has 4-6 month to bring first results, that's why he is in great hurry: doesnt matter Panama, Canada or Ukraine. He plays 4-5 chess games at once. I am skeptical about the outcome
I grew up watching American movies, John Wayne, James Steward, Gregory Peck, their heroes fought for justice and freedom. It was American soft power but that's what made me love America. They fought against individuals like Dumpf, sad America. March 6th will be the anniversary of the death of Davy Croquet, James Bowie and their companions who died at the Alamo. Even if it is now part of their national novel, what would the USA be without their sacrifice? If they had listened to the clown of McDonald's they would have surrendered unconditionally...
It seems rather obvious that Russia’s problems are rising;
-Difficulties with manpower/recruiting. Recruiting is less than losses, sending back injured soldiers to the frontline, fighting with crutches, etc. Not daring to mobilize from Moscow/St Petersburg.
-Deep economical problems, very high inflation, very high interest rates, using up economical reserves, including selling gold, etc.
-Continuous Ukrainian attacks on russian oil industries, causing problems with military( and civilian) support and loss of revenues.
-High losses of military equipment: tanks ifv/apc, artillery, SAM systems, black sea fleet, etc. Severe problems with replacing those.
These factors are all getting serious and are getting worse with time. (I’m surprised that the cracks in Russia aren’t wider than they seem, yet)
No doubt Ukraine has similar problems, but there I see improvements.
Finally, and perhaps most important of them all, the moral dimension. Ukraine fights for its survival and national soul. To quote Churchill: ”We will never surrender.”
I seriously doubt that you’ll find that kind of moral strength in the inner core of the russian society.
Personally, I’m retired with growing health problems that come with my age. But if it comes to that, bring me back my submachine gun from my conscription days and I’ll do what I can to help.
I agree with all of the comments about Trump. But Zelensky should have been better briefed or coached etc on dealing with Trump.
Starmer played a master class in dealing with Trump the day before. This was all the more impressive given that Starmer isn't liked by Musk or Republicans in general. Here in the UK we are all amazed at how well Starmer played his cards. Trump and Starmer are polar opposites character wise.
You can change Trump's mind, you just got to make him think it was his idea and feed his narcissistic tendencies. In the short term, Zelensky just had to keep the ball in play. Now everyone is throwing their tennis rackets on the ground.
This weekend's European meet-up was all about how to rescue the diplomacy and keep everyone talking. In the end, the Europeans bear sole responsibility for their actions. Last year's freeze in US arms supplies was a wake-up call, one the Europeans decided to ignore. The one thing people in the US can all unite on is that the Europeans are a bunch of freeloaders expecting the US to be the principle armed force in Europe.
Here is the main difference between 100s years of diplomacy traditions in UK and couple months general training of UA leaders. that's why Ze was widely criticized in UA. the whole visit was unprepared, Ze was unprepared, no translator was involved etc.
Indeed. He went there without a clue about what else to expect but to 'sign'.
Simply awful work of the Ukrainian diplomats in the DC, terrible work of the Ukrainian intel services, and abyssmal performance of all the Zelensky's advisors (foremost Yermak).
And yes: Moron and Satirical are back to their usual BS. Babbling about, essentially, appeasement. This time of Dumpf.
It might be he is not clueless, but came to pull the trick he did with Putin in 2019, come to the meeting with "almost" signed agreement and then have negotiations. That made Putin furious then behind the closed doors, that made Trump furious in front of the media.
Or needs to develop a complete different strategy, like full nuclearisation of energy sector, plus electrification of auto sector, plus robotisation of agriculture. And that takes time.
So he might need to think, how to take care about his ally, while not helping his enemy, and not harming Ukraine.
And while Orban and Fico are disgusting at how they do it, they are still expressing the needs larger then themselves.
And I think it is possible to strike deals there, while making Ukraine safer, while helping Europe partners.
For example, if Europe agrees to make a fund, that would buy all transit facilities coming to EU, and will also be the single buyer, that will have a deal with Russia for both oil and gas, long term at defined volumes and price cap, reopening full exports, and that in exchange for Russia stopping hitting Ukraine energy sector, while Ukraine will stop hitting Russia energy sector. And Europe putting a special permanent tax on those exports for rebuilding Ukraine.
And then the "deal" initiated by Trump, should serve Europe in one way or another.
It only makes sens, if Ukraine wants to join EU, means investing in your future and Union that you will be part of.
EU on the other hand, should be clear, that having only economic ties with Russia have not worked, but having economic ties and a lagerly superior Armed Forces might work long term.
maybe. heres alternative thought (from me a center left person who wears saint javlin clothes)..
- just because starmer looked good, by sucking up to trump and playing the "royal ace card", doesnt mea it achieved anything worthwhile.
- maybe Zelensky realised that trumo was NEVER going to agree to provide security guarantees, and, he, Zelensky was only interested in USA provided security guarantees.
- i dount Zelensky expexted the verbal lynchings, but, i wonder if he attended with the attitude of 'its time to stop all this talking shit'. im not taking any more LIES from trumo & co, im not a dicktaster, and my country did not start any war in 2022 nor 2014.
perhaps Zelensky knew that trumo was always going to pull the plug, and, he needs EU to properly get on board and wake ghe f66k up
I am afraid reality is more darker. Trump and his teams attacks democratic allies and willingly shifts US foreign policy towards autocracy (support of AfD in Germany, Orban in Hungary, ...).
IMO the plan is: oust Zelensky and install some autocrat like Orban, make "peace" according to Russia notes and then this new UA leader would pull (and steal) money from EU for reconstruction but play Putin games behind. Then Trump and other Putin pundits in West would say that all that war was useless, look that Ukrops are friends of Russia anyway and they just steal all you give them.
Production lines were opened and investments made to scale and increase US "magazine" depth. Without the orders going to Europe and especially Ukraine, these production lines will no longer be profitable at the current price point.
1) It was Ukrainians who pressured US for the meeting. Repeatedly and succeeded to schedule it only after UK and FR intervention, who flew there pretty much just for this purpose. It was not US orchestrated ambush at all what so ever. It was a meeting to which US agreed after being pressured to do so from many sides.
2) The deal to sign was a well pre-negotiated technical treaty on establishment of reconstruction fund funded with profits from **new** deposits mining, where both Ukraine and US would have the say who gets the funding (to reconstruct the UA).
3) The deal was pre-negotiated, the teams met even the same day of the signing event. The expectation of the US side was to have a small talk, easy meeting, and signing. All was ready for that.
4) Yet Zelenskyi, in front of cameras, opened the guarantee topic again and tried to push (or re-negotiate) it at the last moment, disregarding what was pre-negotiated.
5) Only then the hell broke loose.
Sorry, but that is no go in diplomacy. To try to force someone's hand in front of cameras. If, then behind the closed doors. This is simply a clusterfuck in Zelensky's head. The two on the US side should have had enough of sens, to not let themselves get provoked. Well, they did not.
SaCuCo, thank you for your logic analysis of what happened. Ukraine elected a drug addict as president and will have to pay a high price for that. Zelenskys government offloaded nearly half of the ukrainian population to neighbour countries to organise a battle on other peoples bill, while his cronies are enriching themselves obscene. They are already putting there eyes on "reconstruction money" to cash in many billions more. But all this will end bad, for Ukraine and some other european countries, us (Germany) included.
This bang on. It was sheer awfulness, which started with this incredible misjudgement by Zelensky, but became a real clusterfumble only with the grotesque reactions of Trump and Vance. I've never seen such a scene.
Thank you for this reassurance. The brave guy in the photo would no doubt also get criticised by Trump and Vance for his last stand.
Why did the guy in the picture say slava ukraini instead of thank you Trump and Vance? Frankly it's disrespectful /s
In wartime Winston Churchill didn’t wear suits.
He’s already repeatedly thanked the United States.
Well, I think it's objectively true, and not a "pipe dream", that the Russians are holding most of the cards now, as our orange president said, and that Ukraine is holding very few. If anyone has a chance of achieving "maximalist demands", it's not Ukraine. This is the result of having let this war go on so long. Ukraine's negotiating position was just totally different in late 2022 when Mark Milley prophetically suggested that would be the right time for negotiations.
A big factor in how this developed is a widespread and sustained misperception of the military situation and of the trajectory of the military situation. In reality, the military situation has gone steadily downhill since late 2022 practically without a break, and the Russians have had the strategic initiative for 15 months straight without even a pause. So was it really a good idea to keep the war going? What has been gained from that? Has the bargaining position of Ukraine gotten better, or worse? Is more or less Ukrainian territory under occupation?
And if it goes on for another half year, what will it look like then? Even worse?
Our president is a boor and a bully, which was on full display last Friday. But I'm not sure that he's wrong that the war needs to end ASAP. To achieve that, it will be necessary to make significant concessions to the Russians. Because we wasted the cards we held at the end of 2022, and even a year ago Ukraine's position was far better than it is now. It's a horrible injustice, but it is what it is. It's the result not only of Putin's undoubted evil, but of a series of spectacularly bad decisions made in Washington and Kyiv, and it's about time we faced up to it, in my opinion. Tomorrow will only be worse. Putin, unfortunately, understands that, and will drive a hard bargain.
Fully agree.
Putins goals were never a few oblasts, his goal is to eradicate Ukraine as a nation and as an identity. Until our dear leaders in the West acknowledge this nothing will change.
Anyone who believes a deal can be reached with putin does not know history, does not know putin, and does not know russians.
Well, Putin was willing to at least look like he is negotiating. I think he does feel some pressure, but I agree it’s not enough. Which will of course sooner or later frustrate 47. Ukraina has few enough bargain points. But Putins death, Lukashenkos death, something happening in Caucasus… things can happen. And while Russia manages so far, this isn’t fun for them either. I agree that the best Ukraine can do is to continue the fight.
I think Ukraine had a lot of bargaining power in 2022, especially after the brilliant operation in Kharkiv oblast'. The Russians were hurting and were very eager to make a deal.
Even now I think a deal can be made. There's no evidence that the Russians, even now, are demanding "complete capitulation". Putin has said he wants all of the 4 oblasts he annexed, Ukrainian neutrality, and other stuff which was in the Istanbul Agreement which wasn't signed. There's a lot of daylight between that and "complete capitulation". He has never said he wants to absorb all of Ukraine into Russia, and he would be an idiot if that's what he wanted -- it would destroy Russia from within, and I'm sure he knows that.
The Ukrainian negotiators all said that the Number 1 issue for Russia was always NATO; that territory was not all that high on the list.
To keep fighting is to destroy the country. That's the worst possible approach. Of course a deal needs to be made -- everyone in Ukraine already says that, including Zelensky. A deal will require painful concessions, but we are where we are.
We'll see soon enough. I hope for the best for Ukraine. And for peace in Europe.
3 years into its 3 day special military operation, the "2nd best military in the world" has just received it's 2nd tranche of North Korean soldiers and is using donkeys in its logistics network.
It's a hard war no doubt for Ukrainins, but point to the part where it looks like Russia is winning for me
They are steadily gaining ground. Steadily keeping up the pressure. Avoiding too large losses by their standards. Exhausting Ukraine. May lead to victory. May not.
My view is this, putin isn't bargaining for any permanent deal, he does not accept Ukraines existence.
He's playing for time to rearm and give his economy a rest, nothing more. A ceasefire today would be immediately violated, and blamed on Ukraine - Ukraine would be barred from returning fire by the US while the russian attacks would be ignored.
Anyone really believe the US didn't know there were russians in Krym, Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol in 2014? They looked the other way for 8 years because it was convenient. Meanwhile russia tried to rearm and reform its military, luckily they failed at the latter.
We must put this idea of a peace deal with Russia out of our minds, this will end in victory or defeat.
Thank you for your razor sharp assessment. I feel your pain. Thank lord for all the sane and sensible americans in the US! Let us all hope that this presidency period will just become a sad parathesis in your proud history.
Slava Ukraini!
we see history spiral - making GB great again. by now they are outplaying weak US presidents on their way to top again after 90-100 years of influence losses.
if they manage to become a bridge between the US and Ukraine now - they will be definitely enjoying their role of real winners of the war and some 50-70 years on top of world influencers
Thank you so much. The American defense industries' bosses are already grumbling and fear biiiig losses as Europeans will hesitate to buy "American" ...
defense industry maybe will enjoy some European orders, especially Patriot missiles and some other AD stuff.
but Tesla had shown 40% sales drop in EU in Jan. Looking forward to see Feb figures - will be fun. By now EU was protecting its market from Chinese electro cars, but I have this strange feeling it wont be hold for too long...
Here they say that European buyers might wait for the the Model Y’s upcoming local launch which could explain why some are delaying EV purchases. Some sureys indicate the actions of Elon Musk may also be deterring EV buyers.
perfect explanation Mask style: i have never seen Mercedes sales drop by 40% on expectations new model to appear on the market. same with IPhone or Windows
The explanation is not as much that people are buying less, because they wait for the new model, but rather there are inventory issues, the old model is not available as much anymore, the new one is not yet available, will be delivered in March. But we'll see how the numbers look after a longer period.
wherez the laughing emoji.... here in Uk and Europe Musks name is MUD. he is toxic, and, Tesla is the epitome of him. generally speaking Europeans hate nothing more than people who do NAZI SALUTES
Yes, if Patriots can be purchased it will help US defense contractors. But Europe is fast developing it's own capabilities. For example the SAMP/T and Iris/T SLX.
They are of a bit different functionality, but anyway - great news. I stick to the idea of European collective defense without US involvement. There is industrial, scientific, military and intellectual potential for this
Yes Tesla has dropped, but be aware that January numbers are always low, because December is high selling month. You need some months to really spot a trend. One can hope of course.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-sales-decline-across-scandinavia-125810283.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIEb-PJsh7V7HiB-9F1kS64BpjQ8aRBWGiLv-wUIujhcZy8KZU-DPjio8VjQpApoYZ4XRI-n0qFBxLhGN8xBQVCdS3WHmT6TZtlfFORgxCC0h6hX0r73kfOdyZzQU0OkHhMbhNoNLv0SaCWTefGUtXNXDHt8f74I3aeh3a0-_g0V
That’s Y2Y data
Good, let’s hope it continues. I can guarantee you that there are other equally good EVs out there.
Kongsberg Defense (NASAMS) are planning building a factory in Ukraine. Hope they do it quickly.
If UA corruption and bureaucracy will not “kill” this project, that’s outstanding news!
The interesting thing is that Norway is accepting this. So next step should be to invest in drone industry!
Id say - joint ventures with European equity and UA knowledge.
This cluster needs not so much compared to fighter jets development or new tank concept.
EWS + UAVs different range and type + motivated infantry can beat quite a lot.
The stock market shows the European defence companies getting their valuation rocketing up since the Vance speech in Munich. Conversely, American defence companies are losing 20+ percent of their share price during the same period...
Just see the latest Perun vids on YT. Some major European defence firms are skyrocketed.
I never liked the defense industry’s bosses so much. At least maybe they can countermand Putin’s evil influence on Trump.
The stock market is already speaking loudly
it makes HUGE commercial, economic and political good sense for EU companies to recommenxe design and build of our OWN military equipment and ammunition.
Im old, so i remember the UK making lots of military equipment, i even remember being interviewed (for an IT job) by a tank manufacturer in the UK.
"where theres a will therea a way", and, UK has a new determination to get equipped again... left and right wing agree, the public even more so
i hope your correct.
Let's hope that Germany and France will rearm quickly as well. It's crazy to see the tiny Greece having accumulated more tanks than Germany and France together, and have the second largest air force in Europe...
i didnt know that about Greece, thanks for the info
What irks me is the complete lack of representation of Greece in the London summit. That hesitancy is due to a large Russian-friendly segment of voters and the opposition which cries every time the government dares to send anything to Ukraine
Greece is endlessly worried about Turkey. They want to be ready, just in case. They have not forgotten the Greco-Turkish War.
Indeed, there's alot of bad blood between Ottoman Empire/Turkey and Greece, going back more than two centuries and multiple wars (and I'm speaking only about the modern state of Greece, not going as far back as the East Roman Empire)
It was a meeting of the coward and a hero as somebody said. American national myth of the American hero fighting for freedom and justice is dead and it is Trump who killed it.
unfortunately around 50% native Americans fully support this "suite clown". they are less interested in war somewhere in the Europes ass than Mexican immigrants or making Canada 51st state
In this case we have a result of "ochlokratia" - rule of the crowd. Poorly educated people are enchanted by Trump's lies and promises. Evidently supporting a short-sighted totally immoral person will be disastrous for the USA itself. But in the long run, not immediately.
who the fck thinks long-term now?)) time of populists is not over. "Here and now" - most loved words nowadays
Bearing in mind that Trump is 78 there is really no "long run" for him. Neither any perspective for a Nobel prize.
It is fair that they aren’t interested. Still a lot of them are interested and support Ukraine. What I don’t understand is the support of Russia.
It is not a support, it is Trump-isch sick idea: deal-no deal. He wants to play the White dove role, but he can’t press Pu with his nucs. So, very logical then is to press the weaker one - Ukraine with no nucs. Deal as the goal, deal as the essence, kind of the deal and its terms/conditions - doesn’t matter.
The US with Trump will lose all its influence and will be naturally downed to isolated regional leader: like a crazy MMA neighbor (angry, drunk, unfriendly- better not have a deal with). Crystal clear the US will no way use its nucs, as well as they will not invade any country - neither 🇨🇦 nor 🇲🇽 or 🇵🇦. All its allies will have to build new alliances, maybe EU or at least its parts like Pl, Lt, Lv, Es, Cz, Sw, Fl and Nw maybe De, Gb, It and Nl, Dm will form some kind of NATO- or Eastern-North Europe.
both Elon Musk and Vance keep spouting russian propaganda non stop, though.
i disagree.
he wants out of NATO. the only way this happens is make the EU unpopular in American minds and hearts.
why? because he cant take Greenland whilst in NATO.
He cant play hardball with Canada whilst in NATO.
He will start a locallised war with the mexican drug cartels to build a national appetite for strong military action ('nationalistic fervour').
Vance's appetite for the above is questionable \ unknown, hw wants a white supremist \ mysoginstic society, and he wants to be president, but, how?
Let me completely agree with Your thoughts about NATO and disagree with the rest:
1. nice concept until first dead marines will arrive to Arizona or Texas. US society is extremely sensitive to dead men - after Vietnam, Afganistan, Iraq. How much time will pass from the first #deadHeroe to #fckTrump? Btw, any ideas who is he going to fight in Canada: white bear sect, penguin racism?
Greenland: Danish pirats? Panama: slavery and people traders, Chinese PMCs or trade ships?
2. the US will not be able to get a UNO mandate for Mexico, Panama - whatever country. so potential "Mexico in 3 days" will be transformed in some bloody clashes at Juarez. any allies in this adventure? nope - personal responsibility of Trump. Good deal? I doubt it.
3. which automatically means Trump to be marked not as the White dove, but Hitler-isch Pu partner who brought a war to North America first time since 1776 or 1861.
4. to divide the USA into 2+ countries in order to be elected for the 3rd term? possible, but a bit risky. Dont You think?
nationaliatic fevour will hide enough of the pain of the deaths for long enough. Greenland will fall without many deaths, and, nobody anywhere will be able to do sod all about it.
by the time America has leftt NATO, his power will be entrenched, no generals will stand up to him, congress is already useless, impeachment doesn't remove him, and, riots on the streets will play into his authoritarian hands \ game plan.
your hypothesis still has the rule of current laws in charge, but, nime of that wil stop him, and, he wont resign under any circumstances.
school \ university protesters have been told rhey will be arrested and expelled from today. remind you of Hong Kong?
i know this spunds absurd, but, its happened elsewhere in the world, many many times, thinking the USA ia exempt from such malign actors is blind.
+ dont forget that even Steve Bannon thinks Russia has compromat on Trump. I also think Musks twitter takeover was finamced by Russia via Arabia
definitely they have. FSB/KGB is unable to work with their agents without any compromat. but agent Trump plays so open for Russians, that he is running out of time until DeepState and elites will begin to play against him. i think he has 4-6 month to bring first results, that's why he is in great hurry: doesnt matter Panama, Canada or Ukraine. He plays 4-5 chess games at once. I am skeptical about the outcome
I grew up watching American movies, John Wayne, James Steward, Gregory Peck, their heroes fought for justice and freedom. It was American soft power but that's what made me love America. They fought against individuals like Dumpf, sad America. March 6th will be the anniversary of the death of Davy Croquet, James Bowie and their companions who died at the Alamo. Even if it is now part of their national novel, what would the USA be without their sacrifice? If they had listened to the clown of McDonald's they would have surrendered unconditionally...
Thank you for your article and for clear analysis
Regarding bargaining positions:
It seems rather obvious that Russia’s problems are rising;
-Difficulties with manpower/recruiting. Recruiting is less than losses, sending back injured soldiers to the frontline, fighting with crutches, etc. Not daring to mobilize from Moscow/St Petersburg.
-Deep economical problems, very high inflation, very high interest rates, using up economical reserves, including selling gold, etc.
-Continuous Ukrainian attacks on russian oil industries, causing problems with military( and civilian) support and loss of revenues.
-High losses of military equipment: tanks ifv/apc, artillery, SAM systems, black sea fleet, etc. Severe problems with replacing those.
These factors are all getting serious and are getting worse with time. (I’m surprised that the cracks in Russia aren’t wider than they seem, yet)
No doubt Ukraine has similar problems, but there I see improvements.
Finally, and perhaps most important of them all, the moral dimension. Ukraine fights for its survival and national soul. To quote Churchill: ”We will never surrender.”
I seriously doubt that you’ll find that kind of moral strength in the inner core of the russian society.
Personally, I’m retired with growing health problems that come with my age. But if it comes to that, bring me back my submachine gun from my conscription days and I’ll do what I can to help.
"There is no need in any kind of moral strength because fear replaces it wonderfully, as history shows". That's one hell of a quote.
unfortunately "tight up your belts, Motherland is in danger" - it is not a myth... Russians really live that way.
"We lived hard, so why should you live easy" - another expression I have heard from my grandparents.
So, russians used to live with ass uncovered, but fully equipped with guns, nuces etc.
You’re maybe right. I hope you’re not, by all my heart.
this is EXACTLY why Trump is pushing pushing pushing for a ceasefire, and, EXACTLY why Zelensky doesn't want one
#Krasnov
I agree with all of the comments about Trump. But Zelensky should have been better briefed or coached etc on dealing with Trump.
Starmer played a master class in dealing with Trump the day before. This was all the more impressive given that Starmer isn't liked by Musk or Republicans in general. Here in the UK we are all amazed at how well Starmer played his cards. Trump and Starmer are polar opposites character wise.
You can change Trump's mind, you just got to make him think it was his idea and feed his narcissistic tendencies. In the short term, Zelensky just had to keep the ball in play. Now everyone is throwing their tennis rackets on the ground.
This weekend's European meet-up was all about how to rescue the diplomacy and keep everyone talking. In the end, the Europeans bear sole responsibility for their actions. Last year's freeze in US arms supplies was a wake-up call, one the Europeans decided to ignore. The one thing people in the US can all unite on is that the Europeans are a bunch of freeloaders expecting the US to be the principle armed force in Europe.
Here is the main difference between 100s years of diplomacy traditions in UK and couple months general training of UA leaders. that's why Ze was widely criticized in UA. the whole visit was unprepared, Ze was unprepared, no translator was involved etc.
Indeed. He went there without a clue about what else to expect but to 'sign'.
Simply awful work of the Ukrainian diplomats in the DC, terrible work of the Ukrainian intel services, and abyssmal performance of all the Zelensky's advisors (foremost Yermak).
And yes: Moron and Satirical are back to their usual BS. Babbling about, essentially, appeasement. This time of Dumpf.
It might be he is not clueless, but came to pull the trick he did with Putin in 2019, come to the meeting with "almost" signed agreement and then have negotiations. That made Putin furious then behind the closed doors, that made Trump furious in front of the media.
But anyway, if he is going to rely on Europe he needs to understand one thing, besides emotions. Europe needs Russia to be competitive with US. Here is just one example: https://www.statista.com/statistics/252791/natural-gas-prices/
Or needs to develop a complete different strategy, like full nuclearisation of energy sector, plus electrification of auto sector, plus robotisation of agriculture. And that takes time.
So he might need to think, how to take care about his ally, while not helping his enemy, and not harming Ukraine.
And while Orban and Fico are disgusting at how they do it, they are still expressing the needs larger then themselves.
And I think it is possible to strike deals there, while making Ukraine safer, while helping Europe partners.
For example, if Europe agrees to make a fund, that would buy all transit facilities coming to EU, and will also be the single buyer, that will have a deal with Russia for both oil and gas, long term at defined volumes and price cap, reopening full exports, and that in exchange for Russia stopping hitting Ukraine energy sector, while Ukraine will stop hitting Russia energy sector. And Europe putting a special permanent tax on those exports for rebuilding Ukraine.
And then the "deal" initiated by Trump, should serve Europe in one way or another.
It only makes sens, if Ukraine wants to join EU, means investing in your future and Union that you will be part of.
EU on the other hand, should be clear, that having only economic ties with Russia have not worked, but having economic ties and a lagerly superior Armed Forces might work long term.
It would probably have ended they way it did, no matter how prepared he was.
maybe. heres alternative thought (from me a center left person who wears saint javlin clothes)..
- just because starmer looked good, by sucking up to trump and playing the "royal ace card", doesnt mea it achieved anything worthwhile.
- maybe Zelensky realised that trumo was NEVER going to agree to provide security guarantees, and, he, Zelensky was only interested in USA provided security guarantees.
- i dount Zelensky expexted the verbal lynchings, but, i wonder if he attended with the attitude of 'its time to stop all this talking shit'. im not taking any more LIES from trumo & co, im not a dicktaster, and my country did not start any war in 2022 nor 2014.
perhaps Zelensky knew that trumo was always going to pull the plug, and, he needs EU to properly get on board and wake ghe f66k up
ps. where the hell has edit button gone, i cant correct all my typos
I won't use the title "President" in any reference to Trump. He is not, in any shape or form, deserving of it.
47?
I am afraid reality is more darker. Trump and his teams attacks democratic allies and willingly shifts US foreign policy towards autocracy (support of AfD in Germany, Orban in Hungary, ...).
IMO the plan is: oust Zelensky and install some autocrat like Orban, make "peace" according to Russia notes and then this new UA leader would pull (and steal) money from EU for reconstruction but play Putin games behind. Then Trump and other Putin pundits in West would say that all that war was useless, look that Ukrops are friends of Russia anyway and they just steal all you give them.
Production lines were opened and investments made to scale and increase US "magazine" depth. Without the orders going to Europe and especially Ukraine, these production lines will no longer be profitable at the current price point.
My heart bleeds for them (not).
Voting is a serious thing
Thanks for the update. I think you are on to something important here, the Russians will negotiate totally different. But we shall see.
Bang on assessment as far I am concerned.
Sorry but this is completely wrong.
1) It was Ukrainians who pressured US for the meeting. Repeatedly and succeeded to schedule it only after UK and FR intervention, who flew there pretty much just for this purpose. It was not US orchestrated ambush at all what so ever. It was a meeting to which US agreed after being pressured to do so from many sides.
2) The deal to sign was a well pre-negotiated technical treaty on establishment of reconstruction fund funded with profits from **new** deposits mining, where both Ukraine and US would have the say who gets the funding (to reconstruct the UA).
3) The deal was pre-negotiated, the teams met even the same day of the signing event. The expectation of the US side was to have a small talk, easy meeting, and signing. All was ready for that.
4) Yet Zelenskyi, in front of cameras, opened the guarantee topic again and tried to push (or re-negotiate) it at the last moment, disregarding what was pre-negotiated.
5) Only then the hell broke loose.
Sorry, but that is no go in diplomacy. To try to force someone's hand in front of cameras. If, then behind the closed doors. This is simply a clusterfuck in Zelensky's head. The two on the US side should have had enough of sens, to not let themselves get provoked. Well, they did not.
SaCuCo, thank you for your logic analysis of what happened. Ukraine elected a drug addict as president and will have to pay a high price for that. Zelenskys government offloaded nearly half of the ukrainian population to neighbour countries to organise a battle on other peoples bill, while his cronies are enriching themselves obscene. They are already putting there eyes on "reconstruction money" to cash in many billions more. But all this will end bad, for Ukraine and some other european countries, us (Germany) included.
This bang on. It was sheer awfulness, which started with this incredible misjudgement by Zelensky, but became a real clusterfumble only with the grotesque reactions of Trump and Vance. I've never seen such a scene.