Computers are much faster now, and Prigozhin built the "troll factory" thus he has access to IT specialists. On the other hand, his plan is unlikely to rely on the nukes.
For how long can the Russian army in Ukraine survive without the supply route to Russia? Rostov seems to be the main hub, the only other option seems to be Volgograd-Astrahan-Krasnodar-Crimea which is way way longer.
Really great news! Anyway this coup d`etat creates chaos in Russia highly favorable to Ukraine. Surely Prigozhin is no better than Putler but he is not interested in the war in Ukraine in such a way as Putler. From the comments in Russian media we can conclude that even "Russian patriots" are mostly tired of the war and want to stop it somehow.
If Prigo does take control (which I doubt) then it will take all his time and energy to consolidate his position so he will not have time to run the Ukraine war.
On the other hand he may believe it is too much of a risk to bring the Russian army back to Russia.
Are you sure he wants to oust Putin. I think he might be going for a Shogun/ emperor type situation. It solves the legitmacy question and same outcome.
Seems unlikely, as he'd be at continual risk of polonium tea/windows, as Putin would never be able to trust him, or conversely I'm unsure Putin could cope as a sock puppet.
I've seen it suggested that the GRU has been anti-Putin for a long time for his attempts to reduce its authority, and is currently assisting Prigozhin. Naturally, we will find out much more about where this event stands within the day.
...
"Thomas van Linge
@ThomasVLinge
In April experts were warning that Prigozhin is another Hemedti and that the war in Sudan was an omen for what was to come in Russia.
Who would have thought they would be proven right within two months?
Interesting new title, Civil War in Russia. If this move was planned for several days, I guess then that some secret services know about it and agreed with it. Let's see how it develops. What is weird is that they are not fighting each other yet.
It seems the Wagners have stopped and are going back. Maybe the plan never was to fight each other. But now it is even weirder. It was a revolt, they must be punished...
The Shogun resolution? We need to wait for more news.
The original story https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tale_of_the_Heike tells of the emperor's struggle against an overly arrogant and powerful Taira clan. The emperor tried to assassinate the head of Taira, that plot was discovered, the assassins killed and the emperor forced to retire in favor of his infant Taira descendant. However, several years later, the old emperor aligned with another clan, called its chief "shogun" - a new military position - and declared the Taira to be rebels. A civil war taking hundreds of thousands of lives followed, the entire Taira clan was exiled and finally eliminated, together with the child emperor, and the sacred relics that had always been used in emperors' coronations as symbols of the emperors' heavenly power are lost. The newly created position of shogun overshadowed the emperors ever since. A very good TV adaptation of the story was made months before the war https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb30RgyZ-gw
I have a feeling that this might not be the PlanA that Prigozhin had in mind. Recall that Wagner demanded to be deployed in Belgorod back in early June, which is much closer to Moscow than Rostov.
It is obvious that Prigozhin showed himself as soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicted damage on the Chongarsky bridge. It follows that everything was thought out in advance in order to reduce the supply routes for Ros. troops in Ukraine.
He had no time to wait as by the end of the month his army would have become illegal, according to the new Russian law. Let's put the bridge blast aside as an unlucky coincidence.
Computers are much faster now, and Prigozhin built the "troll factory" thus he has access to IT specialists. On the other hand, his plan is unlikely to rely on the nukes.
Prigozhin is clever enough to use the nukes for the negotiation with the West.
Selling - not. But, he could try to blackmail with them.
My additional take on this great report!
https://barry-gander.medium.com/update-prigozhin-invades-russia-second-collapse-of-the-soviet-empire-since-1991-2a815304f3fd
Thanks for keeping us updated on this event, Tom. This will be super interesting in so many ways.
I know this has come up a lot but let's say it one more time. This is certainly the best adaptation of Red Storm Rising.
In the book, the new Soviet government stops the war. Here, maybe Putin Will be considered a pidgeon agains Prigozin and other russian Hawks.
Wagner won the first 24 hours.
The next 24 hours will be crucial.
And every outcome is beneficial for Ukraine.
For how long can the Russian army in Ukraine survive without the supply route to Russia? Rostov seems to be the main hub, the only other option seems to be Volgograd-Astrahan-Krasnodar-Crimea which is way way longer.
....and severely disrupted by all the Ukrainian strikes on the railway link to Melitopol....
Today the information appeared about the explosion on the railway near Dniprorudne.
Not to mention, Wagner can probably interdict rail supplies in the Kuban region from Rostov.
There is a railway north of Caucasus mountains that connects Astrahan and Krasnodar https://rzda.ru/upload/iblock/3b5/3b5ff78e8c44ede4ce06c358b4ed34b5.jpg It is too far away from Rostov for Wagner to disperse its forces while under attack.
There's no indication that Prigozhin is planning to stop fighting Ukraine.
True, I was saying in the hypothetical case of a full blown civil war, which looks anyways like it's not on the cards now with a deal being struck.
Really great news! Anyway this coup d`etat creates chaos in Russia highly favorable to Ukraine. Surely Prigozhin is no better than Putler but he is not interested in the war in Ukraine in such a way as Putler. From the comments in Russian media we can conclude that even "Russian patriots" are mostly tired of the war and want to stop it somehow.
If Prigo does take control (which I doubt) then it will take all his time and energy to consolidate his position so he will not have time to run the Ukraine war.
On the other hand he may believe it is too much of a risk to bring the Russian army back to Russia.
Well, so far, I do not see the VSRF and VDV running away from Ukraine.
....and have never heard of Prigozhin giving up on that war....
Thank you! Excellent analysis!
Taganrog is my hometown but I don't live there anymore. Anyway, I haven't seen anything in local publics. It looks like they are just in RnD.
Are you sure he wants to oust Putin. I think he might be going for a Shogun/ emperor type situation. It solves the legitmacy question and same outcome.
Seems unlikely, as he'd be at continual risk of polonium tea/windows, as Putin would never be able to trust him, or conversely I'm unsure Putin could cope as a sock puppet.
I've seen it suggested that the GRU has been anti-Putin for a long time for his attempts to reduce its authority, and is currently assisting Prigozhin. Naturally, we will find out much more about where this event stands within the day.
...
"Thomas van Linge
@ThomasVLinge
In April experts were warning that Prigozhin is another Hemedti and that the war in Sudan was an omen for what was to come in Russia.
Who would have thought they would be proven right within two months?
2:53 PM · Jun 23, 2023"
Interesting new title, Civil War in Russia. If this move was planned for several days, I guess then that some secret services know about it and agreed with it. Let's see how it develops. What is weird is that they are not fighting each other yet.
They say it was planned for months, with all the ammo stocks from "Shoigu, give us ammo" being carefully put to the storage to back the ongoing raid.
It seems the Wagners have stopped and are going back. Maybe the plan never was to fight each other. But now it is even weirder. It was a revolt, they must be punished...
I assume Prigo got a good deal from Putin.
Now he will have to spend the rest of his life avoiding windows and cups of tea.
The Shogun resolution? We need to wait for more news.
The original story https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tale_of_the_Heike tells of the emperor's struggle against an overly arrogant and powerful Taira clan. The emperor tried to assassinate the head of Taira, that plot was discovered, the assassins killed and the emperor forced to retire in favor of his infant Taira descendant. However, several years later, the old emperor aligned with another clan, called its chief "shogun" - a new military position - and declared the Taira to be rebels. A civil war taking hundreds of thousands of lives followed, the entire Taira clan was exiled and finally eliminated, together with the child emperor, and the sacred relics that had always been used in emperors' coronations as symbols of the emperors' heavenly power are lost. The newly created position of shogun overshadowed the emperors ever since. A very good TV adaptation of the story was made months before the war https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb30RgyZ-gw
Have no other comments than this 🍿🍿🍿
I have a feeling that this might not be the PlanA that Prigozhin had in mind. Recall that Wagner demanded to be deployed in Belgorod back in early June, which is much closer to Moscow than Rostov.
Thanks, Tom, for the update. Seems the next days should be a box of surprises. Anyway, open some opportunities to Ukraine that hope they use.
It is obvious that Prigozhin showed himself as soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicted damage on the Chongarsky bridge. It follows that everything was thought out in advance in order to reduce the supply routes for Ros. troops in Ukraine.
He had no time to wait as by the end of the month his army would have become illegal, according to the new Russian law. Let's put the bridge blast aside as an unlucky coincidence.
Thank you Tom for this update, still tuned in