A sadly accurate assessment which i wish wasn't true 🤷🏼♂️. Better and faster decisions, involving qualified people in the administration would have seen this war already over. Yet sadly, it is not so and the war continues 🙁
Quite accurate, and yet Biden actually succeeded in achieving what he set out to do - neither to win the war nor to lose it. It's been argued to death how that's a cowardly policy, and of course 90% of the credit for not losing the war goes to the Ukrainians fighting in it, with the rest split between donors of which US is one of many. But results are what they are, and they do fit with what Biden set out to achieve, misguided as it may be.
I think Americans living during the cold war would find it kind of funny if they heard that the president of the US wants to avoid winning a proxy war against Russia, while his main political oponent goes even further and supports losing it on purpose. Then again, I guess on the other hand USSR citizens would have even more reasons to be appalled by these events.
While I agree with what is written here, I think it continues to diagnose the symptoms, rather than the cause. Bringing more Pentagon wouldn't necessarily make any difference, because the primary cause of all this failure is the lack of accountability. From the very start of the 21st century, when the US invaded Iraq, without any casus belli, while lying to the UN, not a single White House has achieved a single notable success in the national security and international policy. Failure, after failure, after failure, regardless of who the POTUS was. Zero accountability, for 23 years now. No accountability in the US army, no accountability in the white house admin. Even RAND that advises every US government, has proven "useful idiots" and they are still revered experts.
Anthony Blinken has been stinking the corridors for 15 years now. The guy does not have a single success to his CV, only failure. Yet for 15 years, he's been promoted time and time again. Jake Sullivan started in 2011, 13 years ago! If they were NFL coaches, they would've been fired 1 month into the first season, and never hired by any NFL team again. That would've been the end of their careers. Yet, in the most important jobs' in the US, they have been soiling their trousers (and the carpets) for 15 years now. When you have no accountability, no pressure at all, that's what you get.
What has been described above is the old truism that "birds of a feather fly together." These birds are rife within U.S. gov't bureaucracies. I know because I am retired with 34 years of gov't service, 6 years active duty with the USN (and 20 more years on drill status with the Naval Reserve) and the remaining 28 years with civilian agencies. Regarding my civilian career, it was very difficult to work competently at my various jobs in the midst of so many losers. Yes, many of my co-workers and supervisors were really good at their jobs, but we had an ever-present coterie of barely functioning workers and supervisors (these were the "bring me a rock" type of employee). Nonetheless, at the end of my career I still could not determine for myself what is true of a gov't organization: a system designed by geniuses to be run by idiots or a system designed by idiots to be run by geniuses. I don't expect our foreign policy "experts" to be any different.
Thing is, twenty years of failure adds up; actually you could go back to Viet Nam when the failures really started to accumulate. My point is, the voting public in the States has seen enough to no longer trust the experts elected or not, and military actions on behalf of others are no longer supported. Russia took note, China did too. Biden knows this, Trump senses it, like it or not we're in for new period of isolationism.
I would wager that virtually everyone on this forum not only agrees with MrCook's analysis but is tearing their hair out at the failure of those in power to get it.
The discussion of military help is over and super exagerated. Ukraine is still fighting and keeping the Russians occupied.
Russia should have been defeated by economic sanctions and economic collapse. The job of the Ukrainian Army was to buy time for the sanctions. All done and very well.
Now we should ask what happened to the sanctions not the weapons. Does Russia still import machine tools, ICs and exports oil and gas ? If so you just rost Ukraine on slow fire.
Sanctions were never intended to do that. They can't do that. North Korea is sanctioned to death and yet not only it's still surviving, it has a huge army. There would never be similar worldwide consensus for such sanctions for Russia.
North Korea will implode. Not necessarily before the Ukraine war ends, but it cannot sustain itself. The large army NK has is a paper tiger, its equipment not maintained, sold, stolen… every single problem you can find in the Russian army is multipliser by ten in NK. Regarding sanctions to Russia, they are designet to hurt I assume. To reduce Russias ability to produce, consume, maintain etc their society. Of course that includes their ability to make war, and increased tensions. Russia is on the same path to destruction as NK, and might even get there first. Because NK is not an imperium, its not waging an aktive war, and it doesnt have the same grandiose aspirations as Russia. Thus Russia has a lot of external factors supporting/ adding to its demise. Of course, while Russia is on a path towards self destruction as an empiri it might be stopped in that process by stupid Western politicians putting money into the system or reduce the pressure. But sanctions are and will in the future add to Russias inevitable collapse. At the moment Russia cannot win another Checken war. They better hope Kadyrov continues in power.
Sanctions for things like microchips are almost impossible to enforce, unless you are tracking everything sold and bought.
There'll be always an intermediate company willing to shop stuff on behalf of the Russians, for a price - unless the tracking of dual use technology can alert and stop such transactions (and heavily fine these intermediaries)
I am not sure that Ukraine would be able to absorb a large amount of weapons and munitions during the fall of 2022, and be able to use it effectively until the spring of 2023 in order to oust the Russian invaders.
The delays in 2023 in weapons delivery were extreme, though, and may have contributed to the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, while Russians were left alone to construct heavy defences
Because of complexity and required training. It takes months to years in order to become proficient in the best use of complex weapons (witness the many months needed for training on the F-16s, for example).
A NATO country like Greece needs more than two years of training in order to be able to use the F-35. When we ordered the Rafale, it took 1.5+ years to get the first squadron operational, and that's in a country which owns, uses and maintains Dassault jets since the seventies.
For a western tank crew, you would need approximately 3 months of training to have them knowing how to operate it correctly. And then you would have extra training for tactics etc.
Ukraine would be able to absorb quickly already existing Soviet equipment like the Mig-29 and tanks like the T-72, etc. But western military equipment requires a very different logistics and maintenance chain, besides the difference operating philosophy
Because Ukaine has no competent command staff beyond the battalion level. Remember that the USA has spent the last couple of decades imagining "smart wars" like in Heinlein's Starship Troopers. Centralized C2 was never considered important.
It's getting to the point I hate seeing you post anything about politics. The sheer stupidity and lack of any type of modern thought on the topic of anything Russia related just hurts. I have never considered myself much of an expert on things like this, maybe well informed. But compared to the idiots we have who do this for a living? Crap, I'm a damn genius and I never knew it.
I'd say they do understand the subject matter, it's just that their aims, goals and motivations are not the same as Ukraine's nor the majority of us who comment here. The horrifying reality is that they are not incompetent or stupid.
This is just a function of the old GOP imploding, and becoming nothing more than a clueless cheerleader for anything Trump says.
The old GOP would have raked Jake and Anthony over the coals for being so weak and feckless, both in Afghanistan and Ukraine. That's the one good feature of a democracy: bad policies can't be swept under the rug.
Now the GOP has no independent policy--save what Trump says after he wakes up each morning.
Going to be a rough ride for Europe, especially if Trump comes back--angrier and dumber than he's ever been before.
All of this boils down to one simple and unchangeable fact. There isn't a sane reason for the USA to risk war. Europeans who are unhappy about the USA being unwilling to go to war should have thought of that before going "all in."
Yes I would love for my government to dump the Eurotrash who don't even like us and become allies with Russia.
Every single Euro I talk to eventually admits that he hates Americans and American culture, and everything about Americans. Their values are completely contrary to ours and it is totally insane that we're allying with them over Russians.
Can you give me a single quantifiable reason why the USA should risk mutual destruction with Russia for Europeans who literally hate us?
Ukraine now has the same situation what had Germany in 1944. it's a shame to have the opportunity to strengthen itself with the help of the idiot Putin and to lose everything. the US could have strengthened its influence for decades, in the end they will get another war, with China.
I support the Ukrainian war against Russia, but I don’t know what gives anyone any confidence in Democratic administrations. Sullivan is a 12-year old with no previous foreign policy experience. Military leadership with any sort of gonads was purged by both the O’Bama and Biden administrations; they are far more concerned with Woke ideology (see male officers in drag/woman face) than war fighting. The whole bunch are Low-T, soy boys. Harris and Walz (he bailed on deploying with his unit to the Middle East-soy boy) would be far worse. At least Trump has a track record of keeping the lid despots. P.S. Zelenskyy has done himself no favors with Republicans by cancelling elections and enriching himself. Then he just insulted Trump - more hitting his own thumb with a hammer should Trump win.
Very good insights.
x2
If you are unhappy now, just wait until Ukraine is over. I will be watching the Middle East with great interest.
🎯🙄
everything is so
A sadly accurate assessment which i wish wasn't true 🤷🏼♂️. Better and faster decisions, involving qualified people in the administration would have seen this war already over. Yet sadly, it is not so and the war continues 🙁
Quite accurate, and yet Biden actually succeeded in achieving what he set out to do - neither to win the war nor to lose it. It's been argued to death how that's a cowardly policy, and of course 90% of the credit for not losing the war goes to the Ukrainians fighting in it, with the rest split between donors of which US is one of many. But results are what they are, and they do fit with what Biden set out to achieve, misguided as it may be.
I think Americans living during the cold war would find it kind of funny if they heard that the president of the US wants to avoid winning a proxy war against Russia, while his main political oponent goes even further and supports losing it on purpose. Then again, I guess on the other hand USSR citizens would have even more reasons to be appalled by these events.
After 2 years and a half, thre still no end to this incompetence. Someones in the administration must be happy with keeping it this way.
You can wait as many years you want, it is never an end of incompetence.
While I agree with what is written here, I think it continues to diagnose the symptoms, rather than the cause. Bringing more Pentagon wouldn't necessarily make any difference, because the primary cause of all this failure is the lack of accountability. From the very start of the 21st century, when the US invaded Iraq, without any casus belli, while lying to the UN, not a single White House has achieved a single notable success in the national security and international policy. Failure, after failure, after failure, regardless of who the POTUS was. Zero accountability, for 23 years now. No accountability in the US army, no accountability in the white house admin. Even RAND that advises every US government, has proven "useful idiots" and they are still revered experts.
Anthony Blinken has been stinking the corridors for 15 years now. The guy does not have a single success to his CV, only failure. Yet for 15 years, he's been promoted time and time again. Jake Sullivan started in 2011, 13 years ago! If they were NFL coaches, they would've been fired 1 month into the first season, and never hired by any NFL team again. That would've been the end of their careers. Yet, in the most important jobs' in the US, they have been soiling their trousers (and the carpets) for 15 years now. When you have no accountability, no pressure at all, that's what you get.
You make a very good point.
What has been described above is the old truism that "birds of a feather fly together." These birds are rife within U.S. gov't bureaucracies. I know because I am retired with 34 years of gov't service, 6 years active duty with the USN (and 20 more years on drill status with the Naval Reserve) and the remaining 28 years with civilian agencies. Regarding my civilian career, it was very difficult to work competently at my various jobs in the midst of so many losers. Yes, many of my co-workers and supervisors were really good at their jobs, but we had an ever-present coterie of barely functioning workers and supervisors (these were the "bring me a rock" type of employee). Nonetheless, at the end of my career I still could not determine for myself what is true of a gov't organization: a system designed by geniuses to be run by idiots or a system designed by idiots to be run by geniuses. I don't expect our foreign policy "experts" to be any different.
Thing is, twenty years of failure adds up; actually you could go back to Viet Nam when the failures really started to accumulate. My point is, the voting public in the States has seen enough to no longer trust the experts elected or not, and military actions on behalf of others are no longer supported. Russia took note, China did too. Biden knows this, Trump senses it, like it or not we're in for new period of isolationism.
I would wager that virtually everyone on this forum not only agrees with MrCook's analysis but is tearing their hair out at the failure of those in power to get it.
The discussion of military help is over and super exagerated. Ukraine is still fighting and keeping the Russians occupied.
Russia should have been defeated by economic sanctions and economic collapse. The job of the Ukrainian Army was to buy time for the sanctions. All done and very well.
Now we should ask what happened to the sanctions not the weapons. Does Russia still import machine tools, ICs and exports oil and gas ? If so you just rost Ukraine on slow fire.
You said it. Russia always had to be defeated on the inside to break their will to fight, not so much their ability to fight
Sanctions were never intended to do that. They can't do that. North Korea is sanctioned to death and yet not only it's still surviving, it has a huge army. There would never be similar worldwide consensus for such sanctions for Russia.
North Korea will implode. Not necessarily before the Ukraine war ends, but it cannot sustain itself. The large army NK has is a paper tiger, its equipment not maintained, sold, stolen… every single problem you can find in the Russian army is multipliser by ten in NK. Regarding sanctions to Russia, they are designet to hurt I assume. To reduce Russias ability to produce, consume, maintain etc their society. Of course that includes their ability to make war, and increased tensions. Russia is on the same path to destruction as NK, and might even get there first. Because NK is not an imperium, its not waging an aktive war, and it doesnt have the same grandiose aspirations as Russia. Thus Russia has a lot of external factors supporting/ adding to its demise. Of course, while Russia is on a path towards self destruction as an empiri it might be stopped in that process by stupid Western politicians putting money into the system or reduce the pressure. But sanctions are and will in the future add to Russias inevitable collapse. At the moment Russia cannot win another Checken war. They better hope Kadyrov continues in power.
Sanctions for things like microchips are almost impossible to enforce, unless you are tracking everything sold and bought.
There'll be always an intermediate company willing to shop stuff on behalf of the Russians, for a price - unless the tracking of dual use technology can alert and stop such transactions (and heavily fine these intermediaries)
Yes. For a price. Then the question is if Russia can pay that price, and other increased costs.
For now, they are using the almost 300 billions of non frozen assets to pay for the war and the import of sanctioned goods
For now. Sanctions is like garotting. Slow work. But I have no objections to heavier pressure.
I am not sure that Ukraine would be able to absorb a large amount of weapons and munitions during the fall of 2022, and be able to use it effectively until the spring of 2023 in order to oust the Russian invaders.
The delays in 2023 in weapons delivery were extreme, though, and may have contributed to the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, while Russians were left alone to construct heavy defences
Fair enough.
Curious to know why do you think Ukraine would not have been able to absorb the weapons?
Because of complexity and required training. It takes months to years in order to become proficient in the best use of complex weapons (witness the many months needed for training on the F-16s, for example).
A NATO country like Greece needs more than two years of training in order to be able to use the F-35. When we ordered the Rafale, it took 1.5+ years to get the first squadron operational, and that's in a country which owns, uses and maintains Dassault jets since the seventies.
For a western tank crew, you would need approximately 3 months of training to have them knowing how to operate it correctly. And then you would have extra training for tactics etc.
Ukraine would be able to absorb quickly already existing Soviet equipment like the Mig-29 and tanks like the T-72, etc. But western military equipment requires a very different logistics and maintenance chain, besides the difference operating philosophy
Because Ukaine has no competent command staff beyond the battalion level. Remember that the USA has spent the last couple of decades imagining "smart wars" like in Heinlein's Starship Troopers. Centralized C2 was never considered important.
It's getting to the point I hate seeing you post anything about politics. The sheer stupidity and lack of any type of modern thought on the topic of anything Russia related just hurts. I have never considered myself much of an expert on things like this, maybe well informed. But compared to the idiots we have who do this for a living? Crap, I'm a damn genius and I never knew it.
I'd say they do understand the subject matter, it's just that their aims, goals and motivations are not the same as Ukraine's nor the majority of us who comment here. The horrifying reality is that they are not incompetent or stupid.
This is just a function of the old GOP imploding, and becoming nothing more than a clueless cheerleader for anything Trump says.
The old GOP would have raked Jake and Anthony over the coals for being so weak and feckless, both in Afghanistan and Ukraine. That's the one good feature of a democracy: bad policies can't be swept under the rug.
Now the GOP has no independent policy--save what Trump says after he wakes up each morning.
Going to be a rough ride for Europe, especially if Trump comes back--angrier and dumber than he's ever been before.
And an even rougher ride for the US...
All of this boils down to one simple and unchangeable fact. There isn't a sane reason for the USA to risk war. Europeans who are unhappy about the USA being unwilling to go to war should have thought of that before going "all in."
Yes, like all imperialists before him, Putin will be satisfied with the little finger...
well see that's a "you" problem not an "us" problem. Not a rational reason to risk American cities being bombed.
Where is your line then? Korea, Vietnam, Cuba...? Or would Great Russia and the US live forever in peace and prosperity?
Yes I would love for my government to dump the Eurotrash who don't even like us and become allies with Russia.
Every single Euro I talk to eventually admits that he hates Americans and American culture, and everything about Americans. Their values are completely contrary to ours and it is totally insane that we're allying with them over Russians.
Can you give me a single quantifiable reason why the USA should risk mutual destruction with Russia for Europeans who literally hate us?
Ukraine now has the same situation what had Germany in 1944. it's a shame to have the opportunity to strengthen itself with the help of the idiot Putin and to lose everything. the US could have strengthened its influence for decades, in the end they will get another war, with China.
I support the Ukrainian war against Russia, but I don’t know what gives anyone any confidence in Democratic administrations. Sullivan is a 12-year old with no previous foreign policy experience. Military leadership with any sort of gonads was purged by both the O’Bama and Biden administrations; they are far more concerned with Woke ideology (see male officers in drag/woman face) than war fighting. The whole bunch are Low-T, soy boys. Harris and Walz (he bailed on deploying with his unit to the Middle East-soy boy) would be far worse. At least Trump has a track record of keeping the lid despots. P.S. Zelenskyy has done himself no favors with Republicans by cancelling elections and enriching himself. Then he just insulted Trump - more hitting his own thumb with a hammer should Trump win.