Quite amusing that the Azeris feel the need to have that corridor to the ethnic Azeri enclave in Armenia. Considering that Nagorno-Karabakh was an ethnically Armenian enclave and Azerbaijan wanted full control there. Which considering that Azeris are Turks (two countires - Turkey and Azerbaijan - one people) and the history between Turks and Armenians - first genocide of the 20th Century (an inspiration for Hitler among others) it was a no brainer for Armenia to have 'invaded' Nagorno-Karabakh after the break up of the Soviet Union. But the Soviet mapmakers had placed Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan so the world rejoiced when Azerbaijan 'liberated' it and ethnically cleansed the Armenians.
And the Azeri leader has already stated that a number of other regions in Armenia should also become Azeri.
And considering that Israel and Azerbaijan are best buddies - Israel refuses to acknowledge the Armenian genocide, also supplied Azerbaijan with the drones that gave it the edge in 2020 and 2023, is a major customer for oil and gas, and shares Azerbaijan's antagonism with Iran - it is not surprising that Azerbaijan sees the lack of world response to Israel's actions in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebonon, Syrian, and Iran and sees no repercussions for its aggressions either.
As noted Armenia is a small country with no major resources so no reason to be concerned if it is overrun and ethnically cleansed. Or in the short term forced to agree to concessions by an aggressive neighbor.
And after all peace and harmony will reign in the region 9at leat until Azerbaijan is ready to 'liberate' more territory in Armenia).
Palestinians have consistently praised Armenia and Yasser Arafat called Armenians his brothers because they share in their sorrows of being genocided and having their beautiful cultures erased by homicidal neighbours. That adds another layer to Azerbaijan's persecution. their politicians are buddy-buddy with other baby killers
You seem to have missed the not so small detail* that both Nakhchivan, and Nagorno-Karabakh are part of the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan.
To the point that the fake "Artsakh Republic" was officially not recognized by ... Armenia even as it existed solely due and through the Armenian occupation and ethnic cleansing of said region.
The OSCE Minsk Group (Russia, France, UK and US) never recognized it either even as it worked as a support to Armenian occupation.
As I noted the Soviet government drew the lines and thus it Nagorno-Karabakh was a part of Azerbaijan. And the international community respected that division. Just as the international community rejected the attempt by the ethnic Serb popultion of Bosnia to secede and join their region to Serbia.
On the other hand much of the international community later accepted the independence of Kosovo from Serbia
Now one can no doubt find a number of reasons why the international community decided each of these cases but from my perspective I see a wish by at least those in the West to curry favor with the Muslim world.
For a number of other nations or course there was no wish to fuel their own separatist groups aspirations with an instance of a successful secession.
And as Hitler noted 'no one remembers the Armenians.'
Now as to Armenians 'occupying Nagorno-Khabakh' since it is a part of Historic Armenia it has had Armenians 'occupying it for millennia. It may be that the ancestors of the remnant recently ethnically cleansed Armenians had actually all lived there specifically during those millennia after populations within countries do move and resettle within their countries and the former populations immediate ancestors may have settled there after the Genocide at the beginning of the 20th Century. Any Armenians not native to Nagorno-Karabakh were there at the invitation of the locals.
Who based on history and the current active persecution of Christians and other non-Muslims in Muslim majority countries (something else the international community seems find a consensus in in ignoring) had no wish to be Armenians Christian minority in even a 'secular' Azerbaijan.
And you apparently seem to miss the small point that Azerbaijan is by demanding a corridor to the Azeri enclave in Armenia making a claim on an internationally recognized country's territory.
Oh well, in a few years when Azerbaijan liberates the formerly recognized Ottoman region of Armenia to Azeri (Turkic) rule the international community will undoubtedly find a reason to accept it.
"Now one can no doubt find a number of reasons why the international community decided each of these cases but from my perspective I see a wish by at least those in the West to curry favor with the Muslim world."
That is some peak bigotry delusion.
"And you apparently seem to miss the small point that Azerbaijan is by demanding a corridor to the Azeri enclave in Armenia making a claim on an internationally recognized country's territory."
First spare me the BS. You dont get to worry about the territorial integrity after vomiting nonsense as to why invasion + occupation + full ethnic cleansing in the process is good and fair. Only to cry when the table turns.
Secondly, that is the core issue of this corridor drama.
After their successful invasion and ethnic cleansing, Armenians were the stronger party for 2 decades. And for 2 decades they refused to settle the affair even when Azerbaijan was ready to concede Armenia victory and merely asked that the external Nagorno-Karabakh districts fully depopulated through ethnic cleansing through by Armenians would be given back. Those districts did not belong to the Soviet era autonomous oblast.
Not only di Armenia refused. Armenia even nurtured bigger territorial ambitions.
Leading to the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Pashinyan himself latter admitted it had been a grave mistake to start a second war on Azerbaijan with the July 2020 attack.
Now Armenians can only hope Azeris will be more magnanimous victor that they Armenians ever were.
"Oh well, in a few years when Azerbaijan liberates the formerly recognized Ottoman region of Armenia to Azeri (Turkic) rule the international community will undoubtedly find a reason to accept it."
Let me guess, you are one of those weirdos convinced the UN is controlled by a clique of "Neo Ottoman Islamists" ?
Oh, I am an Islamophobe from way back - with ISIS and its murders and rape marriages in Syria and around the Middle East sanctioned by the Quran, Copts suffering the same in Egypt, Non-Muslims in Pakistan burned alive over false accusations of destroying a Quran, rape, murder, stavation of non-Muslims in Sudan, the ongoing slaughter of non-Muslims in Nigeria, and more locations around the world. And of course there is the repression and murder of fellow Muslims who don't live up to the fundamentalists standards as well.
And an antisemite as well as I rail against Israel's conduct in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem against non-Jews.
Do you have pipe dreams about neo-Ottomans Islamist conspiracy theorists? I have read and found likely the claim that Erdogan would love to be the one to recreate the Ottoman Empire with himself as the head, but i never dreamed he had the UN for support. And as far as I know the imams calling for a global caliphate haven't gained traction in the UN yeat either.
What I see is a West that has developed a collective guilt for the Crusades as an invasion of a peace loving Islamic paradise (rather than a response to a call for assistance against Islamic invaders by a Byzantine Emperor) and supposed centuries of repression and therefore bends over backwards to avoid offence and grant concessions that it feels will curry favor. Just as the West has granted carte blanche to Israel to steal the land and butcher the inhabitants of the Occupied Territories due in large part for guilt over the Holocaust with a leavening of deceptive hasbara on how evil its enemies are and how morally upright it is.
By the way, my sources have all stated that the 2nd War began with an Azerbaijani offensive - or is that not the history they teach in Azerbaijan.
And as to ethnic cleansing according to the histories the first pogrom was committed by Azeris with a three day rampage while the police stood by when the Armenian population voted to secede from Azerbaijan. Armenia then 'invades' to protect its fellow Armenians. But, again, i am sure that all played out quite differently in the Azeri histories.
You know, BS about your claimed of opposing the Genocide of Palestinians does not make your earlier insane Clash of civilization anti Muslims genocidal tirade any less disgusting.
Mr The crusade did nothing wrong and "Muslim must be exterminated outside Palestine aka the place where there will be soon none alive left.
What do the Armenian people want in general? To join the EU and assert themselves as a nation or to remain part of the Russian Federation and continue their current state of decay, being exploited by the federation?
Armenia's focus since independence has been control of land occupied by Armenians regardless of national borders. Since that policy spectacularly failed, its new objectives are focused on survival and maintaining the borders that they currently have. Since Russia provided no assistance in their war with Azerbaijan, Armenia is looking for other diplomatic solutions for security, which includes political ties to the EU and a functional relationship with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Actually, Russia provided decisive support to Armenia in 2020 and even latter.
It just proved not enough and collapsed entirely after Russia became too pre-occupied with its own invasion of Ukraine.
The 9th November 2020 ceasefire deal happened just as Azeris forced mistakenly shot down a Russian helicopter as Russian forces were firing ballistic missiles on Azeris cities.
Later on, Russia acted as a spoiler and nurtured Armenians revisionists delusions to have remained undefeated by preventing the application of the ceasefire deal and continuing to arm Armenian occupying forces. Thus causing the 2023 operation.
Armenia is not a part of the RF. As far as Russia is concerned, they can do whatever they want as long as they don't join NATO. Same goes for Azerbaijan. All three countries benefit from peace and mutual economic relations.
Nagorno-Karabakh marked the new military reality for me--drone warfare. Do you think Turkey is also thinking about that road as a way to control Azerbaijan in the future?
Turkey has sought to be the leader for countries with Turkish culture for a long time. The road and rail corridor would increase trade with Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan would provide better access to trade with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan across the Caspian Sea. Turkey could be an influence for regional stability and an alternative to Russian influence. Turkey could diversify their energy sources and help counter terrorism. Given its oil and gas reserves and other minerals, Azerbaijan has alternatives to Turkish control so the relationship would be closer to a partnership.
Seems to me that so far Turkey is the big winner. Without really doing much. Azerbaijan too of course, but they do face a war, occupation etc. not cost free, but winning. Armenia and Russia loosers. Regarding the morals of the various countries I cannot say that one is better than the others.
Thanks Don for the update on what is happening in the south Caucasus. I recall that Turkey made an attempt to unite the Stans after WWI when the Russian Empire was imploding, and the Allies were creating the mess we still deal with in the Near East. This seems like a logical fix to the problem.
If I remember correctly, the railway line to Kars in Turkey is standard gauge (1435mm), while the Azerbaijan railways use the old Russian/Soviet 1520mm track gauge (besides coupler and air brakes and loading gauge and other differences). How are they going to join these segments?
When Russia intervenes, then it is a problem. When Russia does not intervene, again it is a problem. No matter what Russia does or does not, haters will be haters.
Ukrainian intelligence claims that the Russian contingent in Armenia is increasing.
https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rosiya-planue-narostiti-viyskovu-prisutnist-1751880677.html
Quite amusing that the Azeris feel the need to have that corridor to the ethnic Azeri enclave in Armenia. Considering that Nagorno-Karabakh was an ethnically Armenian enclave and Azerbaijan wanted full control there. Which considering that Azeris are Turks (two countires - Turkey and Azerbaijan - one people) and the history between Turks and Armenians - first genocide of the 20th Century (an inspiration for Hitler among others) it was a no brainer for Armenia to have 'invaded' Nagorno-Karabakh after the break up of the Soviet Union. But the Soviet mapmakers had placed Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan so the world rejoiced when Azerbaijan 'liberated' it and ethnically cleansed the Armenians.
And the Azeri leader has already stated that a number of other regions in Armenia should also become Azeri.
And considering that Israel and Azerbaijan are best buddies - Israel refuses to acknowledge the Armenian genocide, also supplied Azerbaijan with the drones that gave it the edge in 2020 and 2023, is a major customer for oil and gas, and shares Azerbaijan's antagonism with Iran - it is not surprising that Azerbaijan sees the lack of world response to Israel's actions in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebonon, Syrian, and Iran and sees no repercussions for its aggressions either.
As noted Armenia is a small country with no major resources so no reason to be concerned if it is overrun and ethnically cleansed. Or in the short term forced to agree to concessions by an aggressive neighbor.
And after all peace and harmony will reign in the region 9at leat until Azerbaijan is ready to 'liberate' more territory in Armenia).
Palestinians have consistently praised Armenia and Yasser Arafat called Armenians his brothers because they share in their sorrows of being genocided and having their beautiful cultures erased by homicidal neighbours. That adds another layer to Azerbaijan's persecution. their politicians are buddy-buddy with other baby killers
You seem to have missed the not so small detail* that both Nakhchivan, and Nagorno-Karabakh are part of the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan.
To the point that the fake "Artsakh Republic" was officially not recognized by ... Armenia even as it existed solely due and through the Armenian occupation and ethnic cleansing of said region.
The OSCE Minsk Group (Russia, France, UK and US) never recognized it either even as it worked as a support to Armenian occupation.
As I noted the Soviet government drew the lines and thus it Nagorno-Karabakh was a part of Azerbaijan. And the international community respected that division. Just as the international community rejected the attempt by the ethnic Serb popultion of Bosnia to secede and join their region to Serbia.
On the other hand much of the international community later accepted the independence of Kosovo from Serbia
Now one can no doubt find a number of reasons why the international community decided each of these cases but from my perspective I see a wish by at least those in the West to curry favor with the Muslim world.
For a number of other nations or course there was no wish to fuel their own separatist groups aspirations with an instance of a successful secession.
And as Hitler noted 'no one remembers the Armenians.'
Now as to Armenians 'occupying Nagorno-Khabakh' since it is a part of Historic Armenia it has had Armenians 'occupying it for millennia. It may be that the ancestors of the remnant recently ethnically cleansed Armenians had actually all lived there specifically during those millennia after populations within countries do move and resettle within their countries and the former populations immediate ancestors may have settled there after the Genocide at the beginning of the 20th Century. Any Armenians not native to Nagorno-Karabakh were there at the invitation of the locals.
Who based on history and the current active persecution of Christians and other non-Muslims in Muslim majority countries (something else the international community seems find a consensus in in ignoring) had no wish to be Armenians Christian minority in even a 'secular' Azerbaijan.
And you apparently seem to miss the small point that Azerbaijan is by demanding a corridor to the Azeri enclave in Armenia making a claim on an internationally recognized country's territory.
Oh well, in a few years when Azerbaijan liberates the formerly recognized Ottoman region of Armenia to Azeri (Turkic) rule the international community will undoubtedly find a reason to accept it.
"Now one can no doubt find a number of reasons why the international community decided each of these cases but from my perspective I see a wish by at least those in the West to curry favor with the Muslim world."
That is some peak bigotry delusion.
"And you apparently seem to miss the small point that Azerbaijan is by demanding a corridor to the Azeri enclave in Armenia making a claim on an internationally recognized country's territory."
First spare me the BS. You dont get to worry about the territorial integrity after vomiting nonsense as to why invasion + occupation + full ethnic cleansing in the process is good and fair. Only to cry when the table turns.
Secondly, that is the core issue of this corridor drama.
After their successful invasion and ethnic cleansing, Armenians were the stronger party for 2 decades. And for 2 decades they refused to settle the affair even when Azerbaijan was ready to concede Armenia victory and merely asked that the external Nagorno-Karabakh districts fully depopulated through ethnic cleansing through by Armenians would be given back. Those districts did not belong to the Soviet era autonomous oblast.
Not only di Armenia refused. Armenia even nurtured bigger territorial ambitions.
Leading to the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Pashinyan himself latter admitted it had been a grave mistake to start a second war on Azerbaijan with the July 2020 attack.
Now Armenians can only hope Azeris will be more magnanimous victor that they Armenians ever were.
"Oh well, in a few years when Azerbaijan liberates the formerly recognized Ottoman region of Armenia to Azeri (Turkic) rule the international community will undoubtedly find a reason to accept it."
Let me guess, you are one of those weirdos convinced the UN is controlled by a clique of "Neo Ottoman Islamists" ?
Oh, I am an Islamophobe from way back - with ISIS and its murders and rape marriages in Syria and around the Middle East sanctioned by the Quran, Copts suffering the same in Egypt, Non-Muslims in Pakistan burned alive over false accusations of destroying a Quran, rape, murder, stavation of non-Muslims in Sudan, the ongoing slaughter of non-Muslims in Nigeria, and more locations around the world. And of course there is the repression and murder of fellow Muslims who don't live up to the fundamentalists standards as well.
And an antisemite as well as I rail against Israel's conduct in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem against non-Jews.
Do you have pipe dreams about neo-Ottomans Islamist conspiracy theorists? I have read and found likely the claim that Erdogan would love to be the one to recreate the Ottoman Empire with himself as the head, but i never dreamed he had the UN for support. And as far as I know the imams calling for a global caliphate haven't gained traction in the UN yeat either.
What I see is a West that has developed a collective guilt for the Crusades as an invasion of a peace loving Islamic paradise (rather than a response to a call for assistance against Islamic invaders by a Byzantine Emperor) and supposed centuries of repression and therefore bends over backwards to avoid offence and grant concessions that it feels will curry favor. Just as the West has granted carte blanche to Israel to steal the land and butcher the inhabitants of the Occupied Territories due in large part for guilt over the Holocaust with a leavening of deceptive hasbara on how evil its enemies are and how morally upright it is.
By the way, my sources have all stated that the 2nd War began with an Azerbaijani offensive - or is that not the history they teach in Azerbaijan.
And as to ethnic cleansing according to the histories the first pogrom was committed by Azeris with a three day rampage while the police stood by when the Armenian population voted to secede from Azerbaijan. Armenia then 'invades' to protect its fellow Armenians. But, again, i am sure that all played out quite differently in the Azeri histories.
Duh
You know, BS about your claimed of opposing the Genocide of Palestinians does not make your earlier insane Clash of civilization anti Muslims genocidal tirade any less disgusting.
Mr The crusade did nothing wrong and "Muslim must be exterminated outside Palestine aka the place where there will be soon none alive left.
What do the Armenian people want in general? To join the EU and assert themselves as a nation or to remain part of the Russian Federation and continue their current state of decay, being exploited by the federation?
Armenia's focus since independence has been control of land occupied by Armenians regardless of national borders. Since that policy spectacularly failed, its new objectives are focused on survival and maintaining the borders that they currently have. Since Russia provided no assistance in their war with Azerbaijan, Armenia is looking for other diplomatic solutions for security, which includes political ties to the EU and a functional relationship with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Sounds like smarter policy goals.
Actually, Russia provided decisive support to Armenia in 2020 and even latter.
It just proved not enough and collapsed entirely after Russia became too pre-occupied with its own invasion of Ukraine.
The 9th November 2020 ceasefire deal happened just as Azeris forced mistakenly shot down a Russian helicopter as Russian forces were firing ballistic missiles on Azeris cities.
Later on, Russia acted as a spoiler and nurtured Armenians revisionists delusions to have remained undefeated by preventing the application of the ceasefire deal and continuing to arm Armenian occupying forces. Thus causing the 2023 operation.
"as Russian forces were firing ballistic missiles on Azeris cities"
In which parallel universe did this happen ?
Armenia is not a part of the RF. As far as Russia is concerned, they can do whatever they want as long as they don't join NATO. Same goes for Azerbaijan. All three countries benefit from peace and mutual economic relations.
Nagorno-Karabakh marked the new military reality for me--drone warfare. Do you think Turkey is also thinking about that road as a way to control Azerbaijan in the future?
Turkey has sought to be the leader for countries with Turkish culture for a long time. The road and rail corridor would increase trade with Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan would provide better access to trade with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan across the Caspian Sea. Turkey could be an influence for regional stability and an alternative to Russian influence. Turkey could diversify their energy sources and help counter terrorism. Given its oil and gas reserves and other minerals, Azerbaijan has alternatives to Turkish control so the relationship would be closer to a partnership.
Thanks Don!
Seems to me that so far Turkey is the big winner. Without really doing much. Azerbaijan too of course, but they do face a war, occupation etc. not cost free, but winning. Armenia and Russia loosers. Regarding the morals of the various countries I cannot say that one is better than the others.
Thanks Don for the update on what is happening in the south Caucasus. I recall that Turkey made an attempt to unite the Stans after WWI when the Russian Empire was imploding, and the Allies were creating the mess we still deal with in the Near East. This seems like a logical fix to the problem.
The Ottoman Empire kinda imploded as well following the WWI.
The unification of Turkic states under Turkey has as much chance of success as the unification of Slavic states under Russia.
If I remember correctly, the railway line to Kars in Turkey is standard gauge (1435mm), while the Azerbaijan railways use the old Russian/Soviet 1520mm track gauge (besides coupler and air brakes and loading gauge and other differences). How are they going to join these segments?
Gotta give it to Russians, they managed to make Azeris and Armenians agree on one thing:
They both despise Russia.
When Russia intervenes, then it is a problem. When Russia does not intervene, again it is a problem. No matter what Russia does or does not, haters will be haters.
https://substack.com/@reeceashdown/note/c-133832548?r=5qrbeg&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action