An add-on, if you don’t mind - because I’ve received a number of related questions during the day, and I would like to help people avoid situations like when journos from the Austrian and German TV-stations are fabricating rubbish news at rates the Assadist regime used to manufacture Captagon…
>> So, also when it was combatants of the Türkye-supported SNA that have entered a hospital in Manbij and summarily executed a number of wounded combatants of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF…
***
With other words: if you do not read what I post, then it's quite pointless to ask me any kind of questions.
The chief flaw I'm seeing in nearly all Western reporting is treating reports about SNA, CMO, or whoever as if these were integrated hierarchical military formations with chains of command that can answer any questions and be held accountable for any perceived problems. My sense is that all these high level groups are at best coalitions doing their best to coordinate their operations but often no more than umbrella groups that gain and lose support from from competing factions as they work for advantage.
So Tom, which groups have the most stable base of support? Which are likely to fracture at the first political opportunity?
No clear idea. The way I see it, nobody has a 'stable base of support' simply because nobody was present in places like Damascus, Homs, Hama, Latakia etc. before. Actually: not even in Dera'a (city) and Suwayda (city)... not to talk about Dayr az-Zawr. Also because so much of the population (over 80%) was uprooted and so many detained. Under Assad even the Ba'ath Party and the SSNP had only extremely limited rights of working with the public (and the Ba'ath has announced its shut down, yesterday).
Perhaps one could say that the members of the CMO alliance (i.e. the SSG) have their strong base of support in Idlib. Perhaps in western Aleppo, too. But, that's going to completely change now that all the IDPs from there are returning home.
The SSG had a joint meeting with the old government, while Jowlani met leaders of the (former) 'Southern Front' (Dera'a and Suwayda), yesterday. They were the ones actually liberating Damascus as first (as it turns out: a day before the CMO managed that).... and the ones whose combatants are nowhere near as disciplined as those of the CMO, either. Indeed, must admit, I shrugged when seeing the biggest turncoat in all of the insurgency (Ahmed al-Awdah) right next to Jowlani. But, people who know far more than I do, assess this as 'deconfliction' and a 'good sign'.
In similar fashion, and following lots of critique in the social media, the new Syrian PM is now appearing in the public without an Islamic flag (i.e. 'just' with a revolutionary flag behind him).
The majority of Syrians I happen to know is still preoccupied with 'celebrating': happy Assad is gone and kind of convinced 'whatever follows can only get better'. With other words: they're not yet really thinking in terms of having firm standpoints regarding the future politics.
"All the known attacks (as of present time) were launched at key Assadist figures, top henchmen, or their supporters - many responsible for deaths of thousands of Syrians".
The biggest delusion. As usual, innocent and minorities will suffer.
Just saw a couple of graphic videos - ordinary people (minorities) were executed. Thousand of ruthless jihadists (many of whom do not care about Jowlani) are doing whatever they want. Also thousands of criminals and terrorists were set free from prisons (I hope, Tom, you realize that not only "victims of regime" were kept in prisons). And now hordes of these barbarians will make bloody cruises around Syria. We all saw it Iraq before.
Of course, you're free to remain with the armies of online guessers and think to know about 'thousands of ruthless jihadists' and these 'executing ordinary people' - by thousands, too.
Please share your knowledge: which of these atrocious acts was committed by HTS? Which by the CMO?
And how do you explain all the messages from Alawites who used to serve in Assadist formations (including one of former commanders of the 'Tiger Force'), here?
Finally: how comes we do not see a single post of yours, at least indicating any kind of disgust over all that is meanwhile known about such Assadist slaughterhouses of Syrians like Sednaya and so many other prisons?
I have personal strong doubts that there's so much difference between HTS and SNA. I mean, US asset Jowlani may sincerely want some peaceful changes but since each of the movement consists of the semi-independent subgroups that hardly manageble, it's just a matter of toss up who will make more atrocities. Sorry, but my imho that each of the group made up of numerous barbarians that will be happy to make violence on anyone (including Sunni Arabs).
As per my views, I hate dictatorships of any kind but still find useless to solemnly state that "the sky is blue and bread is tasty". I prefer to see the reality. Assad and Gaddafi were cruel to their compatriots however their "descendants" bring in more pain and sufferings. Samely, the invasion to Ukraine is a horrible mistake (mildly saying), still I believe that it was better for Ukranians to surrender and join Russia rather than listen to the Ashkenazi fairtales of UA centuries thru independence and uniqueness. I could be wrong but It's my POV.
P.S. As per Assad prisons. No doubts thousands of regime enemies were kept and tortured without any reason (remember acig forum member "Kfadrat" that vanished many years ago). I am really glad that they are at large now. However, thousands of criminals and jihadists were also set free. Have no doubts, they will kill many innocent and their blood will be on new goverment's hands.
What you are seeing is something unavoidable during the breakdown of socio-political order. This is still a transitional period. Of course we should remain cautiously optimistic but I don't think you speak on behalf of Syrians if you think this is much worse than the level of misery Assad brought upon them for decades.
1.) You have no trace of clue what is going on where in Syria, nor who is killing whom in the videos in question - but you do find yourself qualified to accuse as you like, at your own discretion.
2.) You have no explanation for the mass of Alawis 'abandoning' Assadism.
3.) You are determined to continue ignoring Assadist atrocities (if not even white-washing them).
There are entire 'armies' of all the possible 'Experten' and shills around the social media. Why don't you join them?
As per the "messages" from Alawi...well...what else you expect them to say in current conditions.
P.S. I sure you know that for Muslims and Jews their religions permit to lie or break oathes to people from other religion groups. In case you do not, Alawi sect permits to full "aliens" as well.
So you want us to believe you recognize all these people on sight and can personally vouch for their innocence? That none of these can possibly be factions expanding their local power while the opportunity is there? That no criminal gangs are pushing out rivals?
And you have checked these against your extensive database to ensure none are earlier events being reposted today?
Thank you so very much. I also am astonished that there are so few acts of vengeance. And it is good news that structures for trials will be put in place. Because there must be a sort of legal catharsis. Justice of course is impossible.
Why the journalists are sent to Damascus? Their lies are more believable from there, the background pictures cooler, the self importance and self image way better… I can probably give ten more reasons. Nothing to do with quality of work of course, or truth or anything like that. But reasons? No problem.
Well it is safer to report the news from a guarded hotel from a cafe [and your crumpet and coffee) with WiFi then actually walking out there and seeing what is happening yourself. Speaking as a civilian when I was a pedestrian in Rome it gave me the ibby jibbies seeing Carabinieri or Guardia di Finanza strutting around casually with submachine guns...and that is peaceful Rome.
Well, in 2022, German public broadcasters sent their journos to Kyiv, who then discussed the war live on air with experts ... from Germany who were sitting in their Berlin studio. (It was so absurd that even Germans complained.)
I am not surprised at all by the revenge attacks. But I am hoping they can control the worst of it. So far as you have mentioned the HTS is saying and trying to do the right things, let's hope it continues. Watching the DW broadcasts are rather painful.
What the foreign journos are completely missing is that the local authorities in most of towns are meanwhile issuing stringent regulations. Even carrying of arms and shooting into the air is meanwhile prohibited in most of places.
Uniformed police - now called 'General Security' - is rapidly organised, and out on the streets. Is a co-reason why there is no curfew in Damascus for example, this evening.
Of course, it's not everywhere the same and there are cases of lawlessness. But, the point is that the Assadist regime has terrorised really EVERYBODY in Syria - including Alawis and Christians - and that to the degree where everybody was harmed. 'There was no crime under the regime', because the regime was in control of the crime. There is an amazing level of awareness between the people about this and that's helping a lot to grow the union to unbelieveable levels (really: I'm surprised just how much are people sticking together).
Of course, Assad- and IRGC-shills in the social media are at large, and if there are no 'suitable news', old videos are happily recycled....
It is right to hold a new government to humanitarian standards and expect them to resist the temptation to bloody revenge. It's not reasonable to hold ordinary people to this standard. They are not sophisticated lawyers, they are simple people who have endured intolerable suffering for decades while their family members were tortured and murdered. There comes a point when all bets are off. The standards we live by have long ago disappeared from their lives.
"One is left to wonder why are the journos in question sent to Syria at all: reporting rubbish on basis of the social media can be done from Berlin as well…"
German/Austrian media more or less in part are plugged into russian news sources. And thus retranslate their talking points verbatim.
I've just seen identical comments about Syria (without attribution) on radical channels that often pick-up straight russian talking points from other radical channels that are obviously affiliated with russia. (Litmus test there was simple: they occasionally repost very very niche fake stories from russian fake media networks in Europe and NA.)
"One is left to wonder why are the journos in question sent to Syria at all: reporting rubbish on basis of the social media can be done from the safety of an office in Berlin as well…"
Fake credibility. Your credibility just increases if you are on the ground ("Wir schalten zu unserem Journalisten vor Ort")
Accounting atrocities now is all meaningless social media-mediated information warfare nonsense. The Western media is obviously trying to justify the West's aims (read: Israel's), the much less voluminous Russian-Iranian channels are obviously trying to discredit them. We won't know until two to five years down the road whether Assad was the lesser or the greater evil. But what's happened has happened and no-one can put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
Thank you for your clear information
Hear, hear.
So this video allegedly from Manbij is not true? https://hawarnews.com/en/scenes-of-horrific-crime-committed-by-turkish-occupation-army-in-manbij-hospital
>> So, also when it was combatants of the Türkye-supported SNA that have entered a hospital in Manbij and summarily executed a number of wounded combatants of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF…
***
With other words: if you do not read what I post, then it's quite pointless to ask me any kind of questions.
Aha, sorry, too busy and too much information from everywhere to carefully read your sarcasms.
More precisely, those murderers were ethnic Uzbeks from Uzbek battalion of SNA.
The chief flaw I'm seeing in nearly all Western reporting is treating reports about SNA, CMO, or whoever as if these were integrated hierarchical military formations with chains of command that can answer any questions and be held accountable for any perceived problems. My sense is that all these high level groups are at best coalitions doing their best to coordinate their operations but often no more than umbrella groups that gain and lose support from from competing factions as they work for advantage.
So Tom, which groups have the most stable base of support? Which are likely to fracture at the first political opportunity?
No clear idea. The way I see it, nobody has a 'stable base of support' simply because nobody was present in places like Damascus, Homs, Hama, Latakia etc. before. Actually: not even in Dera'a (city) and Suwayda (city)... not to talk about Dayr az-Zawr. Also because so much of the population (over 80%) was uprooted and so many detained. Under Assad even the Ba'ath Party and the SSNP had only extremely limited rights of working with the public (and the Ba'ath has announced its shut down, yesterday).
Perhaps one could say that the members of the CMO alliance (i.e. the SSG) have their strong base of support in Idlib. Perhaps in western Aleppo, too. But, that's going to completely change now that all the IDPs from there are returning home.
The SSG had a joint meeting with the old government, while Jowlani met leaders of the (former) 'Southern Front' (Dera'a and Suwayda), yesterday. They were the ones actually liberating Damascus as first (as it turns out: a day before the CMO managed that).... and the ones whose combatants are nowhere near as disciplined as those of the CMO, either. Indeed, must admit, I shrugged when seeing the biggest turncoat in all of the insurgency (Ahmed al-Awdah) right next to Jowlani. But, people who know far more than I do, assess this as 'deconfliction' and a 'good sign'.
In similar fashion, and following lots of critique in the social media, the new Syrian PM is now appearing in the public without an Islamic flag (i.e. 'just' with a revolutionary flag behind him).
The majority of Syrians I happen to know is still preoccupied with 'celebrating': happy Assad is gone and kind of convinced 'whatever follows can only get better'. With other words: they're not yet really thinking in terms of having firm standpoints regarding the future politics.
That is more than I learned any news network yesterday. Thanks again.
"All the known attacks (as of present time) were launched at key Assadist figures, top henchmen, or their supporters - many responsible for deaths of thousands of Syrians".
The biggest delusion. As usual, innocent and minorities will suffer.
Just saw a couple of graphic videos - ordinary people (minorities) were executed. Thousand of ruthless jihadists (many of whom do not care about Jowlani) are doing whatever they want. Also thousands of criminals and terrorists were set free from prisons (I hope, Tom, you realize that not only "victims of regime" were kept in prisons). And now hordes of these barbarians will make bloody cruises around Syria. We all saw it Iraq before.
If your description is correct. this differs from the previous situation how?
Differs because it's not nearly as bad.
Of course, you're free to remain with the armies of online guessers and think to know about 'thousands of ruthless jihadists' and these 'executing ordinary people' - by thousands, too.
Why don’t you back up your claims with sources, just like Tom does?
I am not sure you like it (graphic):
https://t.me/anna_news/74048?single
https://t.me/anna_news/74049?single
https://t.me/anna_news/74023?single
One may only wonder how many cases are not taped.
And it's just a beginning...
Thanks for links.
Please share your knowledge: which of these atrocious acts was committed by HTS? Which by the CMO?
And how do you explain all the messages from Alawites who used to serve in Assadist formations (including one of former commanders of the 'Tiger Force'), here?
https://syriarevisited.substack.com/p/facebook-turns-green
Finally: how comes we do not see a single post of yours, at least indicating any kind of disgust over all that is meanwhile known about such Assadist slaughterhouses of Syrians like Sednaya and so many other prisons?
So, there are two parts that I should answer.
I have personal strong doubts that there's so much difference between HTS and SNA. I mean, US asset Jowlani may sincerely want some peaceful changes but since each of the movement consists of the semi-independent subgroups that hardly manageble, it's just a matter of toss up who will make more atrocities. Sorry, but my imho that each of the group made up of numerous barbarians that will be happy to make violence on anyone (including Sunni Arabs).
As per my views, I hate dictatorships of any kind but still find useless to solemnly state that "the sky is blue and bread is tasty". I prefer to see the reality. Assad and Gaddafi were cruel to their compatriots however their "descendants" bring in more pain and sufferings. Samely, the invasion to Ukraine is a horrible mistake (mildly saying), still I believe that it was better for Ukranians to surrender and join Russia rather than listen to the Ashkenazi fairtales of UA centuries thru independence and uniqueness. I could be wrong but It's my POV.
P.S. As per Assad prisons. No doubts thousands of regime enemies were kept and tortured without any reason (remember acig forum member "Kfadrat" that vanished many years ago). I am really glad that they are at large now. However, thousands of criminals and jihadists were also set free. Have no doubts, they will kill many innocent and their blood will be on new goverment's hands.
What you are seeing is something unavoidable during the breakdown of socio-political order. This is still a transitional period. Of course we should remain cautiously optimistic but I don't think you speak on behalf of Syrians if you think this is much worse than the level of misery Assad brought upon them for decades.
Sigh... OK, a translation of your answer:
1.) You have no trace of clue what is going on where in Syria, nor who is killing whom in the videos in question - but you do find yourself qualified to accuse as you like, at your own discretion.
2.) You have no explanation for the mass of Alawis 'abandoning' Assadism.
3.) You are determined to continue ignoring Assadist atrocities (if not even white-washing them).
There are entire 'armies' of all the possible 'Experten' and shills around the social media. Why don't you join them?
Dear aliens, please return old good Tom from Nibiru as his replica on Earth is getting somewhat different from authentic model.)))
Seriously, there's no use to prolong discussion as you refuse to see my point and hanging "names".
P.S. you do not have answers for the first two questions neither.
"...I hate dictatorships of any kind..."
And these words are spoken by the one who licks putin's anus until it shines, praising his invasion of Ukraine!
I haven't laughed so much in a long time )))
As per the "messages" from Alawi...well...what else you expect them to say in current conditions.
P.S. I sure you know that for Muslims and Jews their religions permit to lie or break oathes to people from other religion groups. In case you do not, Alawi sect permits to full "aliens" as well.
That is the most banal answer of the year. The rules of a group always apply only to the group itself.
So you want us to believe you recognize all these people on sight and can personally vouch for their innocence? That none of these can possibly be factions expanding their local power while the opportunity is there? That no criminal gangs are pushing out rivals?
And you have checked these against your extensive database to ensure none are earlier events being reposted today?
Thank you for sharing your knowledge of these events
Thank you so very much. I also am astonished that there are so few acts of vengeance. And it is good news that structures for trials will be put in place. Because there must be a sort of legal catharsis. Justice of course is impossible.
Why the journalists are sent to Damascus? Their lies are more believable from there, the background pictures cooler, the self importance and self image way better… I can probably give ten more reasons. Nothing to do with quality of work of course, or truth or anything like that. But reasons? No problem.
Well it is safer to report the news from a guarded hotel from a cafe [and your crumpet and coffee) with WiFi then actually walking out there and seeing what is happening yourself. Speaking as a civilian when I was a pedestrian in Rome it gave me the ibby jibbies seeing Carabinieri or Guardia di Finanza strutting around casually with submachine guns...and that is peaceful Rome.
Well, in 2022, German public broadcasters sent their journos to Kyiv, who then discussed the war live on air with experts ... from Germany who were sitting in their Berlin studio. (It was so absurd that even Germans complained.)
I am not surprised at all by the revenge attacks. But I am hoping they can control the worst of it. So far as you have mentioned the HTS is saying and trying to do the right things, let's hope it continues. Watching the DW broadcasts are rather painful.
What the foreign journos are completely missing is that the local authorities in most of towns are meanwhile issuing stringent regulations. Even carrying of arms and shooting into the air is meanwhile prohibited in most of places.
Uniformed police - now called 'General Security' - is rapidly organised, and out on the streets. Is a co-reason why there is no curfew in Damascus for example, this evening.
Of course, it's not everywhere the same and there are cases of lawlessness. But, the point is that the Assadist regime has terrorised really EVERYBODY in Syria - including Alawis and Christians - and that to the degree where everybody was harmed. 'There was no crime under the regime', because the regime was in control of the crime. There is an amazing level of awareness between the people about this and that's helping a lot to grow the union to unbelieveable levels (really: I'm surprised just how much are people sticking together).
Of course, Assad- and IRGC-shills in the social media are at large, and if there are no 'suitable news', old videos are happily recycled....
Good to hear they’re sticking together. Thanks for the reporting.
It is right to hold a new government to humanitarian standards and expect them to resist the temptation to bloody revenge. It's not reasonable to hold ordinary people to this standard. They are not sophisticated lawyers, they are simple people who have endured intolerable suffering for decades while their family members were tortured and murdered. There comes a point when all bets are off. The standards we live by have long ago disappeared from their lives.
Agree with your point Sr
Thank you Tom. Have your FB been quarantined?
Not really. But, 'shadow banned'. Lots of people say they're not receiving my posts.
"One is left to wonder why are the journos in question sent to Syria at all: reporting rubbish on basis of the social media can be done from Berlin as well…"
- Or Moscow.
German/Austrian media more or less in part are plugged into russian news sources. And thus retranslate their talking points verbatim.
I've just seen identical comments about Syria (without attribution) on radical channels that often pick-up straight russian talking points from other radical channels that are obviously affiliated with russia. (Litmus test there was simple: they occasionally repost very very niche fake stories from russian fake media networks in Europe and NA.)
"One is left to wonder why are the journos in question sent to Syria at all: reporting rubbish on basis of the social media can be done from the safety of an office in Berlin as well…"
Fake credibility. Your credibility just increases if you are on the ground ("Wir schalten zu unserem Journalisten vor Ort")
Accounting atrocities now is all meaningless social media-mediated information warfare nonsense. The Western media is obviously trying to justify the West's aims (read: Israel's), the much less voluminous Russian-Iranian channels are obviously trying to discredit them. We won't know until two to five years down the road whether Assad was the lesser or the greater evil. But what's happened has happened and no-one can put Humpty Dumpty back together again.