I have friends that swear the west (US) should be comfortable in its current advantage. They don't worry about war with Russia, they don't worry about war in the Middle East, they think the US will be fine against China. I ask them exactly what "advantage" do you mean?
The West's arrogance coupled with the total inability to iterate and improve defense systems? A procurement system that works on the timeframe of years, not weeks. How is this an advantage?
Data from Ukraine flows into Iran everyday. Everyday.
This problem, in the U.S. defense industry, extends DEEP into American culture. I've ranted on this before. Every technology in the U.S. is built to be non-user serviceable. Apple chips are embedded with proprietary IDs. Tesla makes it impossible to tinker with the car yourself. Then there's John Deere. There's a "Right To Repair" movement but it gets nowhere. Bills are always vetoed or killed at the last minute. What that means is you go to a hackspace and you don't see any American technology, like Apple phones, tinkered with. Few Americans are motivated to learn electronics. We've reached peak dumbed-down consumerist culture.
Worse, all the shit is buggy and hasn't changed much in years. I've ranted on this before. I don't believe that whole networked F-35 thing is gonna work.
Ironically, if there is one thing that disproves racism it is tech tinkering. I was part of running a hackspace for many years and there were very few Americans from central casting, if you know what I mean. We're just such a stupid fucking country I can't contain myself. It's not that the potential isn't here. It is. But we can't get out of our own way. Of course, every place has its problems. Okay, just going to cut myself off right here.
I wish it was arrogance. I know I'm not supposed to use this word. But it isn't that. It's raw stupidity.
It’s arrogance too. It took 30 years for the US Army to create/copy an assault mg like the BREN or MG34. The Not Made Here bias is still alive and well with trump.
The NIH (Not Invented Here) syndrome is strong in many aspects of US technology. Even on relatively pedestrian sectors like railways, it took decades fighting against the resistance of FRA and the freight railroads to start running European built rolling stock without saddling it with loads of steel plates for "crash resistance" etc. (look at the weight of the original Acela Express trainsets against the original TGV systems, etc.)
Right, not to mention that the Acela can’t accelerate to proper speed much of the time. Rep Seth Moulton is behind modernization of passenger trains here, and I wish him good luck.
Yeah, I saw him in a recent Jake Broe episode. He looks like a nice guy, but I don't see how USA will get high speed rail (I still remember the debates raging about CAHSR during the USENET days, and I am not happy to see how badly it was managed, trying to do everything for everybody).
Without lightweight trainsets and separated traffic from heavy haul freight trains, on routes designed to use the strengths of these trainsets (large radius, can use steep grades), it'll become an uneconomic construction project for the benefit of contractors and study groups, not a viable transportation system. Already the Japanese are reaching 14 tonnes/axle in their HSR trainsets.
Jake Broe is where I saw Moulton too. After the CA mess I don’t have much hope. My last time on Amtrak was between Seattle and Portland with many sections a single track and we pulled to a siding to let a freight go by. The trip took more than 4 hours. I can see Trump eliminating passenger rail funding too.
40 years ago, anyone with good technical abilities would hack systems. Hacking was a rite of passage that was instructive to all. This evolved into "black hat" and "white hat" hacking which gave everyone pause. Systems (including iPhones and to a lesser extent Androids) are now designed from the start to be hardened, to diminish safety issues and financial loss. Yeah, there is loss that young techies can't readily learn from innocent hacking activities, but the stakes are higher.
Iran and its proxies (as well as Russia to a limited extent) have learned that the whole networked F-35 thing (utilized by the networked F-15, F-16, F-18, F-22, B-1, B-2, drone, B-52 things to say nothing of their naval, army / Patriot, and allied country counterparts) does work pretty well, and will continue to be iterated.
Interesting comment! How are the stakes higher? I mean nuked is nuked ;) What do the Iranians know about how well the networked system works that I don't? I want to make clear I don't doubt the sophistication and advanced nature of the systems. But it's one thing to iterate for an imaginary foe and another to fix and improve against a real one when the shooting starts.
We can see this in Ukraine. At first Ukraine used American self-contained weapons, same for Russia, but both have evolved into first-mover development of new techniques and technologies. Of course, I'm speculating and don't know much to begin with. Anyway, my point is that when the U.S. needs those "hackers" there won't be any and the ones who work at the big defense corporations will be too used to group think.
40 years ago, the stakes of tinkering on cars or compromising an operating system or pranking a co-worker's login script (all of which I've done) meant your car worked better, or you'd get thanks from the OS developers, or your co-worker would try to escalate.
Today, any company that sells a car or computer that is hacked is subject to investigations and lawsuits for emissions violations, systems subject to ransomware, or vulnerability to cybertheft.
Consider the engineers who now exploit cloud computing and AI to start new companies to generate wealth. How would they direct that talent if their country were attacked by autocratic Russia or China or Iran, intent on enslaving or killing them? Yes, Ukrainians harness drone and AI technology to fight back against Russian / Iranian / NK attempts to torture, murder, and enslave them. However, if that fight were to spill over into direct NATO / American involvement (or if China were serious about Taiwan) and those countries started drafting young adults, and European & American & Taiwanese adults realized they could be tortured / murdered enslaved themselves, that army of millions would redirect their talents far beyond what Ukraine has unleashed.
Similar to what you're seeing with Israelis fighting back against Iran and its proxies.
No offense Brett, but are you an in-house Attorney for Apple ;) "any company that sells a car or computer that is hacked is subject to investigations and lawsuits for emissions violations, systems subject to ransomware, or vulnerability to cybertheft."
If ONLY the manufacturers of my computers were liable for ransomware, etc. !
To me, it's my computer or car. I want it secure, sure, but I also want to use what I own in the way I see fit. There's no difference between a car/computer is that is secure for the manufacturer or the user. the ONLY difference is who has rights to the key.
It is not referring to the hardware manufacturer or computer itself. Instead, we are discussing software and its vendors.
The type of operating system (such as iOS, WindowsOS, AndroidOS, etc.) doesn't matter. What matters is that a cyberattack could cause significant damage if there's no quick response from the respective vendors.
Not at all. My criticism has nothing to do with them. It has to do with how software behaves in complex environments, with a combination of variables it didn't expect. I see this everyday in software. And I'm not arguing they CAN'T do it, only that it's extremely hard and the way big corporations operate (Boeing anyone?) there is much cause to worry.
You're operating trash consumer grade software made by companies that literally don't care about end user bugs as they'll eventually be patched to "a good enough state". Software for a jet, eg. The F-35, is actually the cause of most of its delays as it has to be fully commented, validated and tested before being released.
I'd suggest the primary American advantage (reducing worry about Russia, Middle East, and China) is distance.
A related advantage is buffer space. Buffer type 1 is American assets, including satellites, navy (subs and carriers with F18's and F35's), army bases, and air force presence and projection. Buffer type 2 would be allies, all of whom actively (to varying degrees) maintain self determination, including NATO, Japan / Taiwan / Korea / Philippines / Vietnam, Israel, and Saudi. A 3rd type of buffer would include NPC type countries. Over the last 50 years nearly all of these countries realized they don't want to be enslaved by the Russians or Chinese, and or led by the mullahs.
I'd also suggest actual results demonstrate America (working WITH or in competition with allies) continues to iterate and improve allied militaries. Allied military contractors compete to fill gaps and build on each others' capabilities. Maybe it starts with satellite intelligence for Ukraine, munitions finding Houthis, submarines suddenly surfacing in your back yard, or B-2's appearing over Iran. But this iteration also includes the F-35I, Swedish submarines, French Mirages, and TOO MANY examples to list led by American allies.
I think you're fooling yourself to think Americans or its allies have ever rested comfortably, and certainly not now.
I don't believe the West has rested comfortably. The problem I'm addressing is the source of engineers (or any graduate student). The monopolization of tech in the U.S. stifles creativity and interest. The big tech companies are more like cults than innovators. I buy all kinds of interesting camera/audio/computer, etc., tech from China or other countries.
Yes, Americans try to do it too, but I know from my short dabble in it, that it's impossible to make a business out of it with Amazon because they maximize profits over American industry. Why that isn't in the news is beyond me. I use Amazon. Don't get me wrong. It's amazing. But it's also unfriendly to workers and American (or even European) businesses. Oops, getting off in another rant.
I don't disagree with what you're saying. I just feel it's unproven and there should be more discussion about it. Take the Navy. Forget aircraft carriers. I see them going the way of tanks. Instead, the Navy needs to build small FAST, semi-submersible whatever. The whole system you mention I just don't see working anymore. There's not a single big-ticket item you mentioned (even satellites) that can't be taken out with a cheap missile.
Tech organizations do often seem cult-like (Microsoft executives used to bob in their chairs to mimic Bill Gates) but engineers are still innovative. There are a LOT of tech startups and in-company teams, including in the military industrial complex. I see more teams working on AI, autonomous systems, and cloud services than, say, interesting new cameras.
The Iranians and Houthis have recently learned about aircraft carriers (or should we say one aircraft carrier battle group) and what they can do about it. That lesson was not lost on the Chinese or French. The latter hope to replace the Charles de Gaulle in 2038 with a design that includes electromagnetic launch and drones.
I agree autonomous / submersible drones hold a lot of promise.
Plenty of Americans run Amazon based businesses. Since Amazon is a level playing field, people in low wage countries often undercut Americans.
I'm not questioning the talent of engineers. I'm not saying there aren't a lot of tech startups. I'm talking about the effects of monopolization and locked-down tech on a country's engineering strength. Is it a lot, none, something in the middle? I don't know. I have a wild hair up my ass ;) I don't believe we disagree that there are issues here. I hope you're right.
that's why platforms like Raspberry Pi are so important. These are suitable for interfacing hardware and software with the analog world, and permit lots of tinkering, which can help with raising the future engineers
I think that's because lot's of people are not taking numbers into account. Technological superiority is great, but it can be outnumbered. As an extreme example: A Patriot system can of course easily take down a Shahed drone by it's technological superiority, but in reality it's useless against Shahed drones, since the AA missiles are multiple times more expensive than the cheap drones. It would quickly deplete the ammo stock while the enemy has no problems in keeping a steady flow of new cheap drones.
Cheap quantity is sometimes a quality on it's own.
Si Ucrania tuviese ése tipo de drones podrían ser muy útiles (complementando los MANPADS) contra los Su-25 y Ka-52 rusos, no cambiaría el curso de la guerra pero obligarían a los rusos a pensar dos veces.
I have friends that swear the west (US) should be comfortable in its current advantage. They don't worry about war with Russia, they don't worry about war in the Middle East, they think the US will be fine against China. I ask them exactly what "advantage" do you mean?
The West's arrogance coupled with the total inability to iterate and improve defense systems? A procurement system that works on the timeframe of years, not weeks. How is this an advantage?
Data from Ukraine flows into Iran everyday. Everyday.
This problem, in the U.S. defense industry, extends DEEP into American culture. I've ranted on this before. Every technology in the U.S. is built to be non-user serviceable. Apple chips are embedded with proprietary IDs. Tesla makes it impossible to tinker with the car yourself. Then there's John Deere. There's a "Right To Repair" movement but it gets nowhere. Bills are always vetoed or killed at the last minute. What that means is you go to a hackspace and you don't see any American technology, like Apple phones, tinkered with. Few Americans are motivated to learn electronics. We've reached peak dumbed-down consumerist culture.
Worse, all the shit is buggy and hasn't changed much in years. I've ranted on this before. I don't believe that whole networked F-35 thing is gonna work.
Ironically, if there is one thing that disproves racism it is tech tinkering. I was part of running a hackspace for many years and there were very few Americans from central casting, if you know what I mean. We're just such a stupid fucking country I can't contain myself. It's not that the potential isn't here. It is. But we can't get out of our own way. Of course, every place has its problems. Okay, just going to cut myself off right here.
I wish it was arrogance. I know I'm not supposed to use this word. But it isn't that. It's raw stupidity.
It’s arrogance too. It took 30 years for the US Army to create/copy an assault mg like the BREN or MG34. The Not Made Here bias is still alive and well with trump.
Dang, you're right again ;)
The NIH (Not Invented Here) syndrome is strong in many aspects of US technology. Even on relatively pedestrian sectors like railways, it took decades fighting against the resistance of FRA and the freight railroads to start running European built rolling stock without saddling it with loads of steel plates for "crash resistance" etc. (look at the weight of the original Acela Express trainsets against the original TGV systems, etc.)
Right, not to mention that the Acela can’t accelerate to proper speed much of the time. Rep Seth Moulton is behind modernization of passenger trains here, and I wish him good luck.
Yeah, I saw him in a recent Jake Broe episode. He looks like a nice guy, but I don't see how USA will get high speed rail (I still remember the debates raging about CAHSR during the USENET days, and I am not happy to see how badly it was managed, trying to do everything for everybody).
Without lightweight trainsets and separated traffic from heavy haul freight trains, on routes designed to use the strengths of these trainsets (large radius, can use steep grades), it'll become an uneconomic construction project for the benefit of contractors and study groups, not a viable transportation system. Already the Japanese are reaching 14 tonnes/axle in their HSR trainsets.
Jake Broe is where I saw Moulton too. After the CA mess I don’t have much hope. My last time on Amtrak was between Seattle and Portland with many sections a single track and we pulled to a siding to let a freight go by. The trip took more than 4 hours. I can see Trump eliminating passenger rail funding too.
Uhh are you talking about the M-60 machine gun? That's due to the US Army doctrine from WW1 to about the mid 1950s.
40 years ago, anyone with good technical abilities would hack systems. Hacking was a rite of passage that was instructive to all. This evolved into "black hat" and "white hat" hacking which gave everyone pause. Systems (including iPhones and to a lesser extent Androids) are now designed from the start to be hardened, to diminish safety issues and financial loss. Yeah, there is loss that young techies can't readily learn from innocent hacking activities, but the stakes are higher.
Iran and its proxies (as well as Russia to a limited extent) have learned that the whole networked F-35 thing (utilized by the networked F-15, F-16, F-18, F-22, B-1, B-2, drone, B-52 things to say nothing of their naval, army / Patriot, and allied country counterparts) does work pretty well, and will continue to be iterated.
Interesting comment! How are the stakes higher? I mean nuked is nuked ;) What do the Iranians know about how well the networked system works that I don't? I want to make clear I don't doubt the sophistication and advanced nature of the systems. But it's one thing to iterate for an imaginary foe and another to fix and improve against a real one when the shooting starts.
We can see this in Ukraine. At first Ukraine used American self-contained weapons, same for Russia, but both have evolved into first-mover development of new techniques and technologies. Of course, I'm speculating and don't know much to begin with. Anyway, my point is that when the U.S. needs those "hackers" there won't be any and the ones who work at the big defense corporations will be too used to group think.
40 years ago, the stakes of tinkering on cars or compromising an operating system or pranking a co-worker's login script (all of which I've done) meant your car worked better, or you'd get thanks from the OS developers, or your co-worker would try to escalate.
Today, any company that sells a car or computer that is hacked is subject to investigations and lawsuits for emissions violations, systems subject to ransomware, or vulnerability to cybertheft.
Consider the engineers who now exploit cloud computing and AI to start new companies to generate wealth. How would they direct that talent if their country were attacked by autocratic Russia or China or Iran, intent on enslaving or killing them? Yes, Ukrainians harness drone and AI technology to fight back against Russian / Iranian / NK attempts to torture, murder, and enslave them. However, if that fight were to spill over into direct NATO / American involvement (or if China were serious about Taiwan) and those countries started drafting young adults, and European & American & Taiwanese adults realized they could be tortured / murdered enslaved themselves, that army of millions would redirect their talents far beyond what Ukraine has unleashed.
Similar to what you're seeing with Israelis fighting back against Iran and its proxies.
No offense Brett, but are you an in-house Attorney for Apple ;) "any company that sells a car or computer that is hacked is subject to investigations and lawsuits for emissions violations, systems subject to ransomware, or vulnerability to cybertheft."
If ONLY the manufacturers of my computers were liable for ransomware, etc. !
To me, it's my computer or car. I want it secure, sure, but I also want to use what I own in the way I see fit. There's no difference between a car/computer is that is secure for the manufacturer or the user. the ONLY difference is who has rights to the key.
It is not referring to the hardware manufacturer or computer itself. Instead, we are discussing software and its vendors.
The type of operating system (such as iOS, WindowsOS, AndroidOS, etc.) doesn't matter. What matters is that a cyberattack could cause significant damage if there's no quick response from the respective vendors.
The F-35 networking hardware works just fine, as the Dutch demonstrated last week.
Of course, but I mean in a true peer on peer engagement.
You're making the Russians and Chinese and Iranians into 10 foot tall boogeymen. Always a silly place to start.
Not at all. My criticism has nothing to do with them. It has to do with how software behaves in complex environments, with a combination of variables it didn't expect. I see this everyday in software. And I'm not arguing they CAN'T do it, only that it's extremely hard and the way big corporations operate (Boeing anyone?) there is much cause to worry.
You're operating trash consumer grade software made by companies that literally don't care about end user bugs as they'll eventually be patched to "a good enough state". Software for a jet, eg. The F-35, is actually the cause of most of its delays as it has to be fully commented, validated and tested before being released.
I'd suggest the primary American advantage (reducing worry about Russia, Middle East, and China) is distance.
A related advantage is buffer space. Buffer type 1 is American assets, including satellites, navy (subs and carriers with F18's and F35's), army bases, and air force presence and projection. Buffer type 2 would be allies, all of whom actively (to varying degrees) maintain self determination, including NATO, Japan / Taiwan / Korea / Philippines / Vietnam, Israel, and Saudi. A 3rd type of buffer would include NPC type countries. Over the last 50 years nearly all of these countries realized they don't want to be enslaved by the Russians or Chinese, and or led by the mullahs.
I'd also suggest actual results demonstrate America (working WITH or in competition with allies) continues to iterate and improve allied militaries. Allied military contractors compete to fill gaps and build on each others' capabilities. Maybe it starts with satellite intelligence for Ukraine, munitions finding Houthis, submarines suddenly surfacing in your back yard, or B-2's appearing over Iran. But this iteration also includes the F-35I, Swedish submarines, French Mirages, and TOO MANY examples to list led by American allies.
I think you're fooling yourself to think Americans or its allies have ever rested comfortably, and certainly not now.
I don't believe the West has rested comfortably. The problem I'm addressing is the source of engineers (or any graduate student). The monopolization of tech in the U.S. stifles creativity and interest. The big tech companies are more like cults than innovators. I buy all kinds of interesting camera/audio/computer, etc., tech from China or other countries.
Yes, Americans try to do it too, but I know from my short dabble in it, that it's impossible to make a business out of it with Amazon because they maximize profits over American industry. Why that isn't in the news is beyond me. I use Amazon. Don't get me wrong. It's amazing. But it's also unfriendly to workers and American (or even European) businesses. Oops, getting off in another rant.
I don't disagree with what you're saying. I just feel it's unproven and there should be more discussion about it. Take the Navy. Forget aircraft carriers. I see them going the way of tanks. Instead, the Navy needs to build small FAST, semi-submersible whatever. The whole system you mention I just don't see working anymore. There's not a single big-ticket item you mentioned (even satellites) that can't be taken out with a cheap missile.
How many top engineers do you know?
Tech organizations do often seem cult-like (Microsoft executives used to bob in their chairs to mimic Bill Gates) but engineers are still innovative. There are a LOT of tech startups and in-company teams, including in the military industrial complex. I see more teams working on AI, autonomous systems, and cloud services than, say, interesting new cameras.
The Iranians and Houthis have recently learned about aircraft carriers (or should we say one aircraft carrier battle group) and what they can do about it. That lesson was not lost on the Chinese or French. The latter hope to replace the Charles de Gaulle in 2038 with a design that includes electromagnetic launch and drones.
I agree autonomous / submersible drones hold a lot of promise.
Plenty of Americans run Amazon based businesses. Since Amazon is a level playing field, people in low wage countries often undercut Americans.
I'm not questioning the talent of engineers. I'm not saying there aren't a lot of tech startups. I'm talking about the effects of monopolization and locked-down tech on a country's engineering strength. Is it a lot, none, something in the middle? I don't know. I have a wild hair up my ass ;) I don't believe we disagree that there are issues here. I hope you're right.
that's why platforms like Raspberry Pi are so important. These are suitable for interfacing hardware and software with the analog world, and permit lots of tinkering, which can help with raising the future engineers
Exactly
I think that's because lot's of people are not taking numbers into account. Technological superiority is great, but it can be outnumbered. As an extreme example: A Patriot system can of course easily take down a Shahed drone by it's technological superiority, but in reality it's useless against Shahed drones, since the AA missiles are multiple times more expensive than the cheap drones. It would quickly deplete the ammo stock while the enemy has no problems in keeping a steady flow of new cheap drones.
Cheap quantity is sometimes a quality on it's own.
quantity is always a quality (Sun Tzu docet)
The West absolutely iterates and improves, but it's usually in things you can't see. Or it's released in extreme obscure press releases.
The 358 is an interesting IR guided jet powered SAM that seems almost tailor made to down slow flying reconnaissance drones.
Hermes and MQ 9 Reaper look very similar
I had assumed that the Houthis were using actual AD missiles, but this is a "interesting" development in the "Dronescape"
The Houthis use both.
Si Ucrania tuviese ése tipo de drones podrían ser muy útiles (complementando los MANPADS) contra los Su-25 y Ka-52 rusos, no cambiaría el curso de la guerra pero obligarían a los rusos a pensar dos veces.
I suppose anti helicopter capability too
Yep, this missile maxes out at ~435mph so faster than any helicopter.