Hello everybody! I know, for today, I’ve ‘announced’ publishing something about the Russian glide bombs and their use in Ukraine. However, so many questions came my way the last few days, and there is so much demand, that I’ve got no other choice but to post a Q&A session instead.
Lets, for a moment, pretend you're really representing the standpoint you say you do and are coming here with good intentions. Just to discuss the topic in question.
OK.
Because this is only something like 579,362nd online discussion of this kind involving me, and because I do not have the time to always search for links supporting what I say, I've got a big (and growing) file in which I'm collecting such links.
And so, in my Q&A above, I went through that list (with your, and plenty of other, similar to your's, reactions under apostrophes):
- link proving Israel publicly announcing the use of disproportionate force to cause damage and destruction (and it's just one out of dozens).... 'meh, unimportant'....
- link proving IDF has doctrine of indiscriminately declaring civilian municipalities for military bases and attacking them (and it's just one such link).... 'who cares'....
- link proving IDF is using Palestinian civilians as human shields (and is just one of dozens of such).... 'nevermind'....
- B'Tselem confirming evidence IDF is using Palestinian civilians as human shields.... 'who cares'....
- Link explaining the Israeli HIgh Court attempted to outlaw this practice.... 'irrelevant'...
Nah! The only thing that matters is that a BBC-link that, back in 2005 said the IDF appealed and the decision was reversed - is now, 18 years later, 'miraculously' saying the IDF is 'just' intending to appeal....
'Ha, Tom is a liar!'
Please explain me: by best will, all respect, and trying really, really hard to accept you're having innocent intentions (so much so I am even answering your 'commentary', instead of simply deleting it and banning you)... what shall I think about a 'human being' that's obviously, and undisputedly ignoring what can only be characterised as 'indoctrination in mass war crimes' in Israel? - solely with intention to come here and explain me a liar?
You know how I call such characters? SCUM.
And I've said already: I do not want to be even associated with such characters. Please, be so kind, and fade away.
Just today, you're the XYth piece of scum coming here to demonstrate blissful ignorance for even the most fundamental human rights, support for racism and indoctrination with mass-murder, and to call me a liar. What a surprise then, after all this trolling I can't stand that BS any more.
Thank you very much Tom on your approach to reporting on both of these conflicts. Especially when it comes to the situation in Palestine, I barely read/watch any other news sources most if the reporting appears to be based more on agenda then facts (plus history of the conflict is ignored basically all the time)
Question that I have is: Since the beginning the invasion of Ukraine - we observe in a slow motion - how the West ‘unlocks’ new systems for Ukraine, then delivers a few of them and then continues to the next stage. I don’t really expect this to change in the coming months. Taking that into account - I expect little to change in how Ukraine fights this war and am wondering, whether they can put sufficient strain on Russian supplies to (once that point shall come) - achieve larger territorial gains and from a higher perspective achieve something of a turning point.
That with what is the West going to do as 'next' is something I (still) do not feel free to talk about in the public. Sorry.
Not only because it's 'sensitive', but because I first want to see the West actually doing what it 'announced' (in a meeting results of which were never announced in the public) it is going to do.
True that much more Western aid has been announced than has been delivered. This makes it sound to the public as if Ukraine has total NATO support and if they are not winning on the battlefield it must be because of failure of the ZSU to listen to Western "experts."
Tom, so being the first to starz firing rockets from residential area rooftops would not be a “human shield”? That’s what public oponion takes as a fact.
No, what I am asking is how using residnetial building as firing positions (while still occupied with residents) is not using “human Shield”?
That was also noted in Human Rights Watch report that you have linked. The first one, Amnesty international, is a homepage with no specific content.
That doesn’t mean that Israel is not using that as an excuse (while on target there was no military posts) or that they are not using human shields. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
This is 'misuse of civilian facilities', no 'human shields'.
....and re. 'supporting Israel' (or finding 3 Trillion excuses for its misdeeds): I would support Israel if the country would stand for 'our values and civilisation'.
Simple matter of fact is: it does not.
So, if at all, I'm supporting those Israelis that do. See B'Tselem and similar organisations. Meanwhile, the 'civilised' IDF and terrorist settlers are treating them in exactly the same fashion like they're treating Palestinians.
Those of them sincere enough to do so, are calling themselves terrorists:
Lying that the other side is 'using Palestinian civilians as human shields' is a doctrine in Israel because the use of Palestinian civilians as human shields is a doctrine in the IDF.
Not for Hamas.
No 16,000 of such sweet-talking questions like yours are going to change anything about that. Accept it, and live with it.
Thanks,you answered 2 my questions. Actually, Dnipro operation would be high risky, but in case of success result would be amazing. But I have a few questions:
1.Why do you think that it was main plan of Genstab. I've seen similar opinion in interviews of ex commander of "Aydar ", but I just interested in arguments
2.What is activity of Ka 52 now?
3. Is landscape south of Avdiivka better for contratacks of ZSU?
4. Is it any information about Ukrainian fortifications building?
5. Can fog help advancement of ZSU too, covering demining machines like UR 77 from drones ?
6. You skipped south direction except Dnipro in last Ukrainian report. Does it mean that nothing special happened in that time or you collect more information?
1.) Because it's logical to 'combine' flanking with frontal attacks. Everybody sane is doing that, at every opportunity.
2.) No news in this regards for about a week. So, guess 'licking wounds'.
3.) Nope. Right now, the Avdiivka-area is actually 'no-no' for any kind of offensive operations by the ZSU. Problem is that the bulge is on the western side of the Donetsk City, and Ukrainians simply do not have the means to go liberating such a huge (and densely built-up) place.
4.) The sheer fact that Avdiivka is still holding out is more than enough evidence for there being more than enough fortifications in the area. The sheer fact the Russians are attacking 'it' both well to the north-west and west, is additional evidence in this regards: they wouldn't do so if they would think that they could overcome Avdiivka's fortifications.
5.) Yesno. It can cover them from visual observation, but not from low-light TV and similar systems.
6.) Was foremost the lack of time on my part. Through, 'in grand total', yes: 'not that much' has happened there.
Thanks. About south part of Avdiivka I meant this pincer with Vodyane and Opytne, which is 5 km wide in the thinnest place And about fortifications: last 4 months in Ukrainian info field sometimes appears an opinion that Ukraine doesn't build fortifications in the scale of Surovikin line due to lack of political will and organizational skills among political and military comand. Like soldiers digs trenches and some brigades have building machines to make concrete fortifications but still it is not a scale of Russian buildings.
The same: no forces for that. Especially no air defence systems that would 'seal' the airspace for the VKS and UAVs.
And re. 'Ukraine is not building own Surovikin line': I find that OK. Existing field fortifications are more than enough. It would be pointless to go wasting time and huge amounts of money for something that would be counteproductive (since 'firming' the results of the Russian invasion).
Mind: it's the VSRF that needs 10-15km deep minebelts, and massive fortifications - because it's own troops aren't trained to make these on their own, and because Putin must keep his favourites happy by letting them squander billions to pocket while constructing these.
I just want to say that Arestovich is an opportunist and a fraud with huge ego who is fervently chasing the clout. He pretends to be an expert in everything but make no mistake. He's a soviet loving idiot who's constantly appearing in some scandals involving russians, starting all the way back from 00s. I won't be surprised if in a couple of years he'll appear on russian TV condemning "Ukrainian Nazis".
Если он допустит ошибку, он потом может просто сказать что ситуация изменилась и т.д. Как сам накачивал информационное поле Украины контрнаступлением, что все будет хорошо и что всем все понравится, а вчера уже сказал что допустили ошибки и принимали различные не правильные решения, вот только какие так и не сказал. И какую ответственность он понес за вранье про контрнаступление, никакой. Диванные эксперты, даже бывшие советники президента, теперь рассказывают как нужно воевать...
Престаньте разносить этот миф о его позиции. Его позиция была - "внештатный советник главы Офиса президента". Не стратегический, не советник президента и ни что иное.
Thank you very much, Tom, for such a detailed answer to the question about the war in Ukraine. It seems to me that the war will last for a very long time, but it is better to prepare for it psychologically. Thanks again.
It is also better to prepare for it with guaranteed quantity offers for munitions manufacturers, that will actually make them want to ramp up production, in response to the Russian campaign, which is actually taking the industrialisation of their war effort seriously!!!
Arestovych used to be a somewhat popular propagandist (famous for his prediction the war will end in 'two-three weeks'), but no real expert
since being fired for blaming (or speaking it out loud) Ukrainian AD for some of the damage caused by russians he became largerly outspoken, got in some nasty scandals, and is even facing criminal investigations
he was one of the few top Ukrainian officials willing to talk to Belarusian opposition, so this development is/was very personal for me
His 'predictions' (accepted mainly by native females) killel a lot if people who believed his lies and didn't live their unsafe places or accomodations. Not to mention his fake 'titles' and strong connections with russians. Should be in jail.
Thanks a lot for all those detailed answers. I would like to ask if it is still valid assumption, that the speed of Russian loses plays the crucial role based on the limited Russian capabilities to deliver fast enough the new forces? From this perspective, the current tremendous loses would show optimistic trend for UA. But that would too simplistic, right?
Thanks for your hard work and honest assessment of current events. I'm frankly tired of weeding through the opinions and misinformation of mainstream media.
I'm wondering, the US sent 155 mm rounds to Israel instead of to Ukraine. For why? Israel hasn't any ammo for artillery? It was on the first or second day after the Hamas attack. The state which attacks its own neighbours without pause hasn't ammo reserve? Israel's air supremacy is no doubt, but Israel needs some 155 mm ammo to fight back Hamas.
Yes it was. But there are some intergovernmental agreements. I do not remember details but you can easily find some explanatory articles for the above.
Thank you, Tom, for the continued patient, detailed, balanced (and often very funny) analysis. You remain the best place to cut through the “noise” around both conflicts.
In your Middle East update of 10/26, you’ve written “over 1,400 Palestinian children (just kids of age of 15 or below) were massacred by now”. However, it appears that OCHA counts everybody under 18 as children: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties. Furthermore, the statistics predating the present fighting in Gaza (see “Fatalities by age and sex”) show large disparity, about 5:1, between men and women, as well as boys and girls. Wouldn’t such disparity imply that many of these casualties aren’t really civilians?
Unfortunately, I can’t find any sex-based statistics for the present fighting in Gaza, other than compound statements like “Women and children have made up more than 62 per cent of the fatalities” https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/gaza-death-toll-passes-5000-no-ceasefire-sight . Still, this appears to be far higher percentage than in the past, probably reflecting the reality of a much less targeted Israeli bombing campaign this time.
No idea about any kind of 'disparities' - and actually do not care about them. Have seen a list of 6,900 names of those killed by around three days ago: as of yesterday morning, that list went to more than 8,000, including over 3,000 children.
Lets, for a moment, pretend you're really representing the standpoint you say you do and are coming here with good intentions. Just to discuss the topic in question.
OK.
Because this is only something like 579,362nd online discussion of this kind involving me, and because I do not have the time to always search for links supporting what I say, I've got a big (and growing) file in which I'm collecting such links.
And so, in my Q&A above, I went through that list (with your, and plenty of other, similar to your's, reactions under apostrophes):
- link proving Israel publicly announcing the use of disproportionate force to cause damage and destruction (and it's just one out of dozens).... 'meh, unimportant'....
- link proving IDF has doctrine of indiscriminately declaring civilian municipalities for military bases and attacking them (and it's just one such link).... 'who cares'....
- link proving IDF is using Palestinian civilians as human shields (and is just one of dozens of such).... 'nevermind'....
- B'Tselem confirming evidence IDF is using Palestinian civilians as human shields.... 'who cares'....
- Link explaining the Israeli HIgh Court attempted to outlaw this practice.... 'irrelevant'...
Nah! The only thing that matters is that a BBC-link that, back in 2005 said the IDF appealed and the decision was reversed - is now, 18 years later, 'miraculously' saying the IDF is 'just' intending to appeal....
'Ha, Tom is a liar!'
Please explain me: by best will, all respect, and trying really, really hard to accept you're having innocent intentions (so much so I am even answering your 'commentary', instead of simply deleting it and banning you)... what shall I think about a 'human being' that's obviously, and undisputedly ignoring what can only be characterised as 'indoctrination in mass war crimes' in Israel? - solely with intention to come here and explain me a liar?
You know how I call such characters? SCUM.
And I've said already: I do not want to be even associated with such characters. Please, be so kind, and fade away.
'Less flamboyant ways'?
Just today, you're the XYth piece of scum coming here to demonstrate blissful ignorance for even the most fundamental human rights, support for racism and indoctrination with mass-murder, and to call me a liar. What a surprise then, after all this trolling I can't stand that BS any more.
Here we go again.... 🙄
One, final, request: if you want to explain that Hamas 'is' using Palestinians as 'human shields': provide evidence for that.
Any further commentary with similar content - and lacking evidence for such statements - is going to be deleted, and the poster banned for trolling.
....ignore advice, ignore warnings, keep on pushing own agendas... typical troll. 🙄
....and another one.... 🙄
You've got one attempt. Where is that 'evidence for Hamas (or other Palestinian armed groups) using civilians as human shields'?`
(...and then people wonder when I'm talking about 'watchdogs'....)
Thank you for your consistently intelligent observations.
Thank you very much Tom on your approach to reporting on both of these conflicts. Especially when it comes to the situation in Palestine, I barely read/watch any other news sources most if the reporting appears to be based more on agenda then facts (plus history of the conflict is ignored basically all the time)
Question that I have is: Since the beginning the invasion of Ukraine - we observe in a slow motion - how the West ‘unlocks’ new systems for Ukraine, then delivers a few of them and then continues to the next stage. I don’t really expect this to change in the coming months. Taking that into account - I expect little to change in how Ukraine fights this war and am wondering, whether they can put sufficient strain on Russian supplies to (once that point shall come) - achieve larger territorial gains and from a higher perspective achieve something of a turning point.
Edit: several errors in the first paragraph making it a bit hard to read. I apologize
That with what is the West going to do as 'next' is something I (still) do not feel free to talk about in the public. Sorry.
Not only because it's 'sensitive', but because I first want to see the West actually doing what it 'announced' (in a meeting results of which were never announced in the public) it is going to do.
True that much more Western aid has been announced than has been delivered. This makes it sound to the public as if Ukraine has total NATO support and if they are not winning on the battlefield it must be because of failure of the ZSU to listen to Western "experts."
Tom, so being the first to starz firing rockets from residential area rooftops would not be a “human shield”? That’s what public oponion takes as a fact.
What part of 'Hamas is not using Palestinians human shields (while Israel does)' - is that you don't understand, Marijo?
No, what I am asking is how using residnetial building as firing positions (while still occupied with residents) is not using “human Shield”?
That was also noted in Human Rights Watch report that you have linked. The first one, Amnesty international, is a homepage with no specific content.
That doesn’t mean that Israel is not using that as an excuse (while on target there was no military posts) or that they are not using human shields. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
This is 'misuse of civilian facilities', no 'human shields'.
....and re. 'supporting Israel' (or finding 3 Trillion excuses for its misdeeds): I would support Israel if the country would stand for 'our values and civilisation'.
Simple matter of fact is: it does not.
So, if at all, I'm supporting those Israelis that do. See B'Tselem and similar organisations. Meanwhile, the 'civilised' IDF and terrorist settlers are treating them in exactly the same fashion like they're treating Palestinians.
Those of them sincere enough to do so, are calling themselves terrorists:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Rk1dAIhiVc
Thousands of others are suffering in silence:
https://twitter.com/BtSIsrael
THAT is Israel I'm ready to support - any time of the day.
At least pretend you can understand: then you might figure out what and why am I doing what I do.
Lying that the other side is 'using Palestinian civilians as human shields' is a doctrine in Israel because the use of Palestinian civilians as human shields is a doctrine in the IDF.
Not for Hamas.
No 16,000 of such sweet-talking questions like yours are going to change anything about that. Accept it, and live with it.
Thanks,you answered 2 my questions. Actually, Dnipro operation would be high risky, but in case of success result would be amazing. But I have a few questions:
1.Why do you think that it was main plan of Genstab. I've seen similar opinion in interviews of ex commander of "Aydar ", but I just interested in arguments
2.What is activity of Ka 52 now?
3. Is landscape south of Avdiivka better for contratacks of ZSU?
4. Is it any information about Ukrainian fortifications building?
5. Can fog help advancement of ZSU too, covering demining machines like UR 77 from drones ?
6. You skipped south direction except Dnipro in last Ukrainian report. Does it mean that nothing special happened in that time or you collect more information?
Thanks for your efforts
1.) Because it's logical to 'combine' flanking with frontal attacks. Everybody sane is doing that, at every opportunity.
2.) No news in this regards for about a week. So, guess 'licking wounds'.
3.) Nope. Right now, the Avdiivka-area is actually 'no-no' for any kind of offensive operations by the ZSU. Problem is that the bulge is on the western side of the Donetsk City, and Ukrainians simply do not have the means to go liberating such a huge (and densely built-up) place.
4.) The sheer fact that Avdiivka is still holding out is more than enough evidence for there being more than enough fortifications in the area. The sheer fact the Russians are attacking 'it' both well to the north-west and west, is additional evidence in this regards: they wouldn't do so if they would think that they could overcome Avdiivka's fortifications.
5.) Yesno. It can cover them from visual observation, but not from low-light TV and similar systems.
6.) Was foremost the lack of time on my part. Through, 'in grand total', yes: 'not that much' has happened there.
Thanks. About south part of Avdiivka I meant this pincer with Vodyane and Opytne, which is 5 km wide in the thinnest place And about fortifications: last 4 months in Ukrainian info field sometimes appears an opinion that Ukraine doesn't build fortifications in the scale of Surovikin line due to lack of political will and organizational skills among political and military comand. Like soldiers digs trenches and some brigades have building machines to make concrete fortifications but still it is not a scale of Russian buildings.
The same: no forces for that. Especially no air defence systems that would 'seal' the airspace for the VKS and UAVs.
And re. 'Ukraine is not building own Surovikin line': I find that OK. Existing field fortifications are more than enough. It would be pointless to go wasting time and huge amounts of money for something that would be counteproductive (since 'firming' the results of the Russian invasion).
Mind: it's the VSRF that needs 10-15km deep minebelts, and massive fortifications - because it's own troops aren't trained to make these on their own, and because Putin must keep his favourites happy by letting them squander billions to pocket while constructing these.
I just want to say that Arestovich is an opportunist and a fraud with huge ego who is fervently chasing the clout. He pretends to be an expert in everything but make no mistake. He's a soviet loving idiot who's constantly appearing in some scandals involving russians, starting all the way back from 00s. I won't be surprised if in a couple of years he'll appear on russian TV condemning "Ukrainian Nazis".
Если он допустит ошибку, он потом может просто сказать что ситуация изменилась и т.д. Как сам накачивал информационное поле Украины контрнаступлением, что все будет хорошо и что всем все понравится, а вчера уже сказал что допустили ошибки и принимали различные не правильные решения, вот только какие так и не сказал. И какую ответственность он понес за вранье про контрнаступление, никакой. Диванные эксперты, даже бывшие советники президента, теперь рассказывают как нужно воевать...
Престаньте разносить этот миф о его позиции. Его позиция была - "внештатный советник главы Офиса президента". Не стратегический, не советник президента и ни что иное.
Просто аферист.
He's at home on russ TV where he's already been before the war. Lier who speaks and acts like a russian spy. Disgusting slippery personality.
Excellent Q&A. Thank you Tom, wish you an enjoyable rest of the Sunday!
Thank you very much, Tom, for such a detailed answer to the question about the war in Ukraine. It seems to me that the war will last for a very long time, but it is better to prepare for it psychologically. Thanks again.
It is also better to prepare for it with guaranteed quantity offers for munitions manufacturers, that will actually make them want to ramp up production, in response to the Russian campaign, which is actually taking the industrialisation of their war effort seriously!!!
Arestovych used to be a somewhat popular propagandist (famous for his prediction the war will end in 'two-three weeks'), but no real expert
since being fired for blaming (or speaking it out loud) Ukrainian AD for some of the damage caused by russians he became largerly outspoken, got in some nasty scandals, and is even facing criminal investigations
he was one of the few top Ukrainian officials willing to talk to Belarusian opposition, so this development is/was very personal for me
His 'predictions' (accepted mainly by native females) killel a lot if people who believed his lies and didn't live their unsafe places or accomodations. Not to mention his fake 'titles' and strong connections with russians. Should be in jail.
Thanks a lot for all those detailed answers. I would like to ask if it is still valid assumption, that the speed of Russian loses plays the crucial role based on the limited Russian capabilities to deliver fast enough the new forces? From this perspective, the current tremendous loses would show optimistic trend for UA. But that would too simplistic, right?
Yes, that's greatly oversimplified - but truth: the rate of losses per day remains a critical issue.
Thanks for your hard work and honest assessment of current events. I'm frankly tired of weeding through the opinions and misinformation of mainstream media.
I'm wondering, the US sent 155 mm rounds to Israel instead of to Ukraine. For why? Israel hasn't any ammo for artillery? It was on the first or second day after the Hamas attack. The state which attacks its own neighbours without pause hasn't ammo reserve? Israel's air supremacy is no doubt, but Israel needs some 155 mm ammo to fight back Hamas.
The first international reaction in the West on Israel's actions ‘Israel going too far’ in Gaza https://www.newsinenglish.no/2023/10/28/norway-israel-going-too-far-in-gaza/
to replenish ammo stock earlier sent to Ukraine from Israel. That was the deal back then to provide ammo to Ukraine.
But wasnt that ammunition US-owned, stocked in Israel for future use? It wasnt IDF ammunition.
Yes it was. But there are some intergovernmental agreements. I do not remember details but you can easily find some explanatory articles for the above.
Thank you, Tom, for the continued patient, detailed, balanced (and often very funny) analysis. You remain the best place to cut through the “noise” around both conflicts.
So good to get such a realistic, productive , not wishful or biased military viewpoint thinking on this complex , contineously changing war. Thanks.
Hello, Tom:
In your Middle East update of 10/26, you’ve written “over 1,400 Palestinian children (just kids of age of 15 or below) were massacred by now”. However, it appears that OCHA counts everybody under 18 as children: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties. Furthermore, the statistics predating the present fighting in Gaza (see “Fatalities by age and sex”) show large disparity, about 5:1, between men and women, as well as boys and girls. Wouldn’t such disparity imply that many of these casualties aren’t really civilians?
For comparison: Ukrainian statistics https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/09/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-11-september-2023. shows the ratio of ~1.5 : 1.
Unfortunately, I can’t find any sex-based statistics for the present fighting in Gaza, other than compound statements like “Women and children have made up more than 62 per cent of the fatalities” https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/gaza-death-toll-passes-5000-no-ceasefire-sight . Still, this appears to be far higher percentage than in the past, probably reflecting the reality of a much less targeted Israeli bombing campaign this time.
No idea about any kind of 'disparities' - and actually do not care about them. Have seen a list of 6,900 names of those killed by around three days ago: as of yesterday morning, that list went to more than 8,000, including over 3,000 children.