103 Comments

Note: FPV strikes on VSFR pontoon equipment at Seym river https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1825821943238439097

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"exchanges of territory secretly agreed between Washington and Moscow". That made me chuckle. :-). Thanks!

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The best thing is, that's not even sarcasm. I spoke to enough Russians before the war to know that it really IS how they think. Their modern-day "voenkors" are no exception - and no, they don't just write it because they have to - they really believe their own propaganda. Everything Ukraine does is directly micromanaged by "western masters", period.

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Then there's the D.C. Beltway morass, which tries to imply exactly the same. Putin's games only work if he's got a willing partner.

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This idea that everything is micromanaged by Washington (and with Moscow a victim) is very persistent also among left leaning people on Europe. Moscow is a victim because Bush promised Gorbatsjov that NATO shouldnt expand further east. And look all those states that enters NATO…. Mindlessly without any ideas but malice towards Russia… Micromanaged by Washington. Who also orchestrated the Maidan rebellion etc etc. This way of thinking makes everybody but US and Russia helpless marionetter. The effects are big. If Ukraine has no will it should be forced to stop this war… just trade some land. Peacenicks (and we really want peace, fair enough) avisen this constantly.

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I trust all that Hans, is a big joke, dry humour, tongue in cheek ?

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Thanks Tom. For as long as this remains a maneuver warfare, the ZSU will continue inflicting disproportionate damage to the VSRF. Russia does not have enough heavy equipment, it does not produce enough, it loses too many and it has run out stored equipment in good enough condition for easy refurbishment. The VSRF has been fighting a trench war for the last 12 months. Trying to limit the use of armour, focussing on infantry and glide bombs. These are fairly useless when the enemy is maneuvering. Yet again, the ZSU has proven the Tsar has no clothes.

PS: Amazes me the Western Experten of Experting are still debating the point of invading Kursk. It seems nobody has told all those retired generals, civilian analysts etc. that the point of war is to kuddle 'em all.

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I wonder if our politicians are already working on starting a "submarine coalition". Why not launch another raid on Vladivostok once these Far East reinforcements arrive at Kursk?

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As a complete amateur, I'm curious, what's your take on the key differences between Ukrainian successful maneuver warfare of 2022 (Kharkiv) and 2024 (Kursk)? If I recall correctly, in 2022 pretty much everything was liberated in about a week, with some extra "slower" advances following in Lyman area. Today, we see quite a lot of successes in two weeks, but, despite all the suddenness, the "covered" area is about 10 times less. So, what's the difference: less Ukrainian troops involved? More caution to avoid walking into traps by attacking "too deep"? More Russian troops around in the first days to hold some strongholds like Korenevo? Less running away by Russians because of the "holy motherland" factor? Drone warfare (not as prominent back in 2022 I think)?

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Ukraine used a much larger force in 2022, example claimed 500 tanks.

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Hmm, the only mention of "500 tanks" I remember from 2022 is Zaluzhny saying he needs to have them to be able to liberate the south. And that was way before anyone started at least pledging leopards (not to mention delivering them). :)

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They received a lot of soviet era tanks from Poland and East Europe.

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Yes, but tank forces of the whole Russian army before 2022 were officially estimated to have 3000-3500 tanks (of which 8500 are destroyed by now, if we are to look at out official claims). Somehow I doubt that even with donations from Poland and others ZSU could have that much to spare just for Kharkiv operation (which some Russians even took for a diversion at first, since Kherson counteroffensive was also in full swing already).

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The front like is 1000 km long, if you have 4k tanks that means you have like 4 tanks per km. If you not prepared and expecting such assault, it`s easy for the opponent to create numerical advantage on small portion of the front.

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I have not seen anything close to 500 tanks in Kharkiv offensive, not even 200, maybe 100 max. Instead it seems it was captured 200+ ru tanks in various states. Otherwise configuration of the battle seems to be very similar.

I think to myself a much higher concentration of ru troops, 50+ KABs a day, FPVs, night drones, etc. Also then the operation was in two main waves, first around 6000 km, and then another 6000, after overcoming initial counteractions. Here it was 1000 in the same period (first week) and probably another 1000 in the next (3 weeks) before it stops... or not.

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I doubt it was more than 30 MBTs.

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Sorry, nope: the initially deployed force in 2022 was even smaller. It became larger because so much of the Russian frontline collapsed, that additional brigades became free and could start moving.

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Objective is different. Being nervy on foreign soil is different to liberating your own territory.

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There are not many differences. In September 2022, the GenStab-U set up two ad-hoc 'Kampfgruppen' of the ZSU, brought in elements of three other brigades, then let the latter punch a hole in the Russian frontline to enable the former to - literally - race to Kupyansk and to Izyum.

As one raced to Kupyansk, the Russian attempt to counterattack was taken by surprise and smashed, causing a collapse of an entire sector of the frontline. The one racing to Izyum was slowed down, but still fast enough to cut off the 1st GTA from Kupyansk, in turn forcing it to withdraw. That's what then enabled the crossing of the Oskil River, and the liberation of Lyman, too.

But, by that time, the involved units were hopelessly exhausted (one can't expect any unit to continue a 24/7 advance for longer than some 7-10 days), while the Russians began throwing freshly-mobilised reservists into their way....

So, now, where's the difference?

In 2022, the ZSU was after 'liberating the terrain'. Now it's after 'Wildschweinjagd': wholesale destruction of Russian reserves. So, in 2022, it was imperative to drive as deep as possible into the eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Now it's imperative to dance around the Russian reserves rushed to the battlefield and to maul, maul, maul, and maul them before they can do any serious harm. While it's pointless to drive ever deeper into Russia: after all the aim is not to conquer Moscow, and such a drive would also be counterproductive, because the deeper into Russia the offensive goes, the more exposed would be both the Ukrainian flanks and supply chain.

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Thanks! So, basically, it's not that the ZSU couldn't manage a race to Kursk or Kurchatov, but rather that they didn't really want to?

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The aim is different. This time it's not 'liberating terrain', but 'killing or capturing Russian troops'.

Whether the ZSU could reach, say, Kursk... not sure. But even if: it would be pointless: the ZSU couldn't drive all the way to Kursk and then fight a big urban battle of attrition while assaulting such a large city.

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So again, territories gains don't mean a lot, map changes don't mean a lot; but losses (which are hard to estimate from my pov) matter; so fog of war, indeed

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"Here it must be kept in mind that, just like the population of any other country, the Russian population is indoctrinated in a very specific fashion." sorry, but it's not true. Surely, propaganda exists in every country and I met the French (for example) who hold believes wildly disconnected from reality. But this is not "indoctrination", it's a simplified national narrative or propaganda if you will. Over the 20 years putin invested in raising a specific kind of apathetic ignorant homo sovieticus. the level of indoctrination is somewhere between Iran and North Korea, nothing like in "any other country"

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Then call it the 'simplified national narrative or propaganda'. Is fine with me.

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The key difference is, in free countries, there is a free academic and public debate about such national indoctrination and propaganda. In Russia, you go to jail if you just beep againt it.

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I see.

BTW, is that why neither the US nor the German (just for example) academia can run any kind of serious studies of Zionist invasion of Palestine, just for example? ....why are they highly praising even the purest science fiction fabricated by specific 'scientists' solely on basis of their nationality?

....and why anybody criticising Israel is promptly declared an anti-Semite, while Zionists are left to subvert our societies in ways worse than even Putin can imagine? (Actually: Putin is only learning from them.)

....why we have not only a handful of cases where non-Jewish German journalists and academics are declaring themselves for Jews, and thus consider themselves in a position to freely block and ban (genuine) Jewish academics, artists, and journalists critical of Zionism, entirely at their own discretion?

....and, if you think that's the only such example: fine. I'll not even try to start discussing Rwanda, Syria, Kurds, or few other cases where exactly the same game is played. Every single day, every week, month, year, and decade...

....all because both our academia and the media are so perfectly free, and there is absolutely no indoctrination...

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Of course they can start any study of Zionist invasion, they can even start to study why the earth is flat or why 1+1 = 2 or whatever. But those greedy scientists like money and attention, so if they won't get them for their studies, they don't do them.

Freedom of speech does not mean government has to pay for every nonsense and media has to publish it. Freedom of speech is just that you are not prosecuted. If you do not undestand it, try to move to Russia, just for a momwent.

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No one is threatening these people with jail. They make their own choices of what to study and publish. If you wish to quit war analysis and start writing on Israel - Palestine issues instead, no one from the government will come to stop you. But please don't lol.

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Nobody is threatening with a jail? Mind explaining how comes several of Jewish journalists and academics critical of Zionism were sorted under 'Gefährders' in Germany?

....while over 400 have had their lectures, shows, public appearances, cancelled, and their book-proposals turned down (by now... the number is constantly increasing)?

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Heh, if you live in certain US states, there can now be legal consequences for simply refusing to to business with Israel, courtesy of AIPAC and allied lobbyists. Being fired for expressing sympathy with Palestinians isn't far off.

Already well down that old slippery slope...

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Well to be honest if you have Rupert Murdoch operating "News" channels in your nation you ha e the worst propaganda machine imaginable.

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Zelensky banned Russian Orthodox Church. That is bad for karma. Those are mostly old women and some monks, few of them remember Soviet persecutions. Still, whoever remains in the church these days is truly religious.

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So you ban the whole church instead of filing a criminal offense?

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>> "The activities of the Russian Church in Ukraine are terrorist activities."

- Which ones? Prayers? Blessing marriages and baptizing children? Feeding homeless people in the monasteries?

>> "Lusvargi lived in the Holy Intercession Holosiiv Monastery of the UOC (Moscow Patriarchate)"

- For some (stupid) reason I believe that monks don't check their visitors through the SBU database to find out if the person is accused of state crimes. That should have been done by the border guards, I suppose.

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Well, karma is hindu. Zelensky is not (AFAIK). So he probably doesn't care.

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Yet, when he threw them from the Lavra church on Christmas (Jan 7), he lost Soledar. When they were expelled from the whole Lavra by Easter, he lost Bakhmut.

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Ah, so now we know who's to blame if Russians reach Pokrovsk soon. If only Yanukovich paid attention to similar portents (closing doors, feinting guards etc) in 2010, who knows? We might have never had a war at all.

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And now russia is loosing kursk. So he did good?

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Let's wait and see.

The Kursk offensive seems to have stopped by now.

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If Kursk offencive has stopped, Russian Donbass, Krarkiv and other offesives have finished before starting.

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karma is really just the Hindu and Buddhist term for cause and effect. Upset people, there's always a price to pay. Might be worth it in this case, I can't say, I'm not Ukrainian.

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Seriously though, I understand that religion isn't about logic or reason, but do these truly religious people really need their spiritual leaders' leaders to report to Russia to feel ok?

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No, they feel OK while they follow their local leaders (priests). Those leaders obey the rules that tell them to follow their regional leaders (mitropolits, similar to bishops). And the regional leaders have read church laws and did not find any legal way to split from the main church body, governed by the Moscow Patriarch.

Basically, they entangled themselves when they were despising Philaret of UPC for his creation of an independent church against the church rules - now they cannot break the very same rules they trusted in for 30 years.

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So, like always, this has nothing to do with religion. Pure politics and pride (inability to publicly acknowledge their own mistakes in the past). Which, by the way, is a capital sin for a true Christian.

In the end, the original Great Schism between Catholics and Orthodox was mainly about political control (Pope above everyone vs many autonomous leaders), and I doubt that the simple religious masses really cared about all the other subtle theological differences. And rulers around the world switched their domain's religions as they saw fit when it suited their political interests (and when they felt they can get away with it). So can we really expect anything else today?

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That does not make the case any better for those grandmas and nuns who go to the church to pray every Sunday. Most of them will continue to gather at homes when the churches get arrested, as they did in the Soviet times.

And if they used to pray for the soldiers to survive, now they will pray more for their church to survive.

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Im trying to understand how is this related to the war

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He already told you, upsetting a grandma is bad juju XD

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Through karma, which defines events and results of any war.

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🙈

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Of course you must ask why? Russ Orthodox was banned?

Was spreading anarchy and subversion. It wasn’t just ‘another voice’ but a distinctly dangerous one, would’ve been foolish to allow it to be home not just to voices, preachers, but anti Ukrainian actions as well as covert network… it is wartime after all!

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Why not ban SBU? I believe that they had many more Russian agents than the church, and they killed the man who had warned of the planned Russian descent in Hostomel https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/%D0%B2%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B2%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE-%D0%BA%D1%96%D1%80%D1%94%D1%94%D0%B2%D0%B0/32233661.html

And banning religions goes against the Ukrainian constitution. Especially banning not based on what they preach but because they found 10 spies in an organization with hundreds of thousands of members.

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You need to get a handle on the whataboutism, man. Two wrongs don't make a right.

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Neither violating the constitution constitutes the rule of the law.

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So far as I nderstand they have not banned religion, they simply want to disstance the Ukraine churches from Russian control. There is no Christian requirement for God to be worshipped via Russia insteead of direct.

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That depends on what one believes. Those believers want to obey their rules, and the rules don't let them leave the Russian Church on their own accord. And the believers cannot violate their rules.

Which boils down to the atheists commanding the believers how and what they are allowed to believe.

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Unfortunately, there is simply no way around limiting what is legal to believe, especially in wartime. Otherwise we could end up with a church that openly declares Pudding for god and commands the believers to support him however they can. Constitution or not, nobody would tolerate this, just like Queen Elizabeth I of England couldn't simply tolerate Catholics plotting to kill or overthrow her. It's really not about people's religious beliefs (they aren't too different from any other Christian church in Ukraine), it's about *political* beliefs that a church controlled by enemy can easily promote among those who trust their local leaders (who, in turn, are sworn to follow authority of someone who may or may not be as religious as they are).

Also, appealing to the Constitution should have its limits. After all, constitutions are written by men, and men are imperfect, so Consitution is important but isn't a Holy Bible. Especially when people who wrote it basically copied "best practices" from older law codes without really thinking anyone would have to apply some of them in their lifetime (I am pretty sure that was the case with everything related to a possible war in Ukrainian constitution).

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So you agree that the case is about the secular government overriding the freedom of religion and belief for Ukrainians. Which is similar to what was done by the Soviet Union.

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So far as I know there is no difference in the theology of the Ukraine Orthodox Church versus the Russian so there is no truth in the claim that there is a difference in what they are allowed to believe.

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Yes, both Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches believe that they should not schism (separate) from their parent (patriarch) Church. However, for the Ukrainian Church the parent is Constantinople while for the Russian Church the parent is Moscow. And the schism from the Moscow Patriarchate is exactly what the government requires from the Russian Church in Ukraine. While they believe that schismatics don't go to Heaven.

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Kharma is a much more sophisticated concept than simple Western ‘cause and effect’

For a start, you’d need to be on a genuine spiritual rebirth path… not a given.

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The Bible (Tanakh) has it many times that the land becomes cursed when people sin, especially when they oppress poor men and widows and when judges take bribes to claim innocents to be guilty. First there comes rain during harvest so that the grain is spoiled. Then there comes drought and hunger. And if that does not help, a war cleanses people from the land.

There is no special term for that curse in the West, with "sin" being overly generic. Thus I prefer to call the returning evil "karma", though I may not be technically correct.

The best way to stop it is to help poor, homeless and oppressed, to restore justice. However, that should be done by the whole nation to remove or delay the curse.

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So he should have kept this KGB/FSB institution for what purpose? It is totally controlled by fsb, even in russia. Also, there is a perfectly good ukranian Orthodox Church.

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So why keep religious institutions if atheists always better know what and how the flock should believe?

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So nothing new, the some tactic they used to stop the Kharkiv offensive, just pump soldiers into battle and counter attack till 0 line is formed.

Then use the some strategy from other directions, when they could count on the aviation support.

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The first part reminded me of Lisa Eckhardts joke about immigration and Nazis with the sentence:"Weltherrschaft kennt keine Ausländer" - translatable to "there are no foreigners in world domination"

Somehow frighteningly similar points of view there even Putin always insist he is fighting Naziism. Looks like best, if he dominates the world...

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"They’re only sure that Putin does not know about their plight – and that, once he does find out, he’s promptly going to save them…"

Reminds me the popular saying among Germans during the 2nd world ware: "Wenn das der Führer wüsste..." "If only the Führer knew that".

Implying that any grievance only happens because he doesn't know about it. Where the truth actually was that he knew very well and tolerated or even wanted it like that.

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The major part of Russian population think the same way as Soviet citizens at Stalin's times. They simply cannot believe that all their misfortunes are caused by the decisions and deeds of their god-like ruler. To think logically would be a mortal threat for them.

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Well it really would be mortal danger to them if anyone reported them to the NKVD/KGB

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Arthur Dent DON'T PANIC! 8-)

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Oh these pesky Ukrainians

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Yeah crushed it 👍. Good work.

Interesting that even after week in they just can't pin the Ukrainians down. Which of course, is brilliant news for Ukraine.

Seems to prove that neither their military command nor the FSB is up to the task. Again, let's hope that reality continues.

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Akhmat's patch features a strange Russian flag. This was the flag of the Russian-American Company, which owned Alaska in the 19th century.

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Thanks for this good update Tom

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"when the 82nd Airborne lost 5 BTF-4s knocked out and 2 captured."

BTR-4?

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Soviet Bridging was always good and they invented the ribbon bridge which NATO copied. The good thing about the self propelled raft section you show is that it requires fewer sections to construct and is harder for artillery to interdict. The downside is that it cannot carry as much equipment as a fixed ribbon bridge.

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