16 February 2024: The End of Zenit
Hello everybody!
Today, I’ll continue with coverage of what’s going on in Avidiivka. Few things are ‘within public domain’ meanwhile, so it’s possible to add few details and thus improve clarity.
As mentioned earlier, the ZSU re-deployed the 3rd Assault Brigade to the Avidiivka area. The 3rd is meanwhile one of biggest brigades of the Ukrainian armed forces, including six manoeuvre battalions and plentiful of mortars and artillery. That said, ‘only’ two battalions were actually re-deployed for this mission: the rest is… ‘somewhere else’.
Their task was to ‘keep the doors open’ while the garrison is withdrawing.
The reason is that withdrawals are some of most complex manoeuvres a military force can conduct. Essentially, one holds a position in the rear while providing covering fire for the troops that are abandoning the forward position, and then does so again and again, until the frontline can be stabilised.
In the case of Avidiivka, and for the start, the crucial issue was that of withdrawing troops from the areas east of the town, especially from the Filtration plant. For this purpose, the Zenit fortification (including the Cheburashka position, both south of Avidiivka and north of Spartak), had to be held as long as possible.
Elements of the 110th Mech were the first to start withdrawing, some 7-8 days ago, and this manoeuvre was completed without much trouble. However, once the Russians have realised what’s going on, they’ve thrown additional forces into the battle, seeking to convert Ukrainian withdrawal into a rout. Is a logical thing to do in cases of this kind, and they did exactly the same, several times back in 2014, and then again in 2022. Unsurprisingly, they have deployed a total of some seven brigades - and then not some poorly-trained convicts gang-pressed by Wagner around the battlefield, like in Bakhmut one year ago, or untrained mobiks of the last summer and autumn, but crack troops. Between these are elements of the 90th Tank Division (here one of its T-72s in the process of being destroyed by an FPV-drone), at least two Spetsnaz brigades of the GRU, up to three brigades of the VDV, and what’s left of the re-re-built 1st Slovyansk Brigade (originally DNR troops, meanwhile replaced by Russian mobiks). These were deployed into a massive assault on and over the Road O0542, and on the Zenit and Cheburashka. The Spetsnaz has managed to advance along two hedgerows to the west of it, causing a new crisis.
Although two of involved Russian brigades were meanwhile decimated, the Russians continue pushing along the same direction, ‘all out style’. Nevertheless, Ukrainian withdrawal from positions east of town was successfully completed.
By that time - evening of 13 February - the Zenit and Cheburashka were almost completely surrounded. Thus, the next task was that of securing withdrawal from there. This was completed - in small groups - in the night from 14 to 15 February. As far as is known, by now, at least six wounded troops were left behind: about a dozen was killed during the evacuation…
Yesterday early in the morning, the troops of the Russian 1st Slovyansk then rushed to raise their flag over the Zenit fortification:
Now, have no doubts: for the mass of troops involved, the last two-three nights were ‘pure chaos’, with withdrawing units frequently having to fight around all 360 degrees around them. Even more so in cold, deep mud, and by night. See: this was no pleasant experience. Thus, get ready to read a lots of corresponding reports: about chaos, about poor preparations, lack of prepared positions etc.
Matter of fact is: there is no way to run this kind of an operation in ‘well-prepared fashion’. Foremost: when there is so much fear, so much tension, people have a feeling of nobody being in control and thus are almost on the verge of panic.
Be sure: this crisis is far from over. Essentially, the fate of Avidiivka has been decided. The point is now to make sure troops still inside the town (and whatever civilians are still around) can exit along the 2-kilometres-wide corridor between Lastochkyne in the north, and Vodyane-Opytne in the south. This can be done as long as the 9. Kvartal (Neighbourhood No. 9) can be held. Thus, we must expect ZSU troops to withdraw to that area as next.
Securing that exit is the next task of the 3rd Assault, 47th Mech, and other units ordered to hold the line as long as necessary.
Agree, a fighting withdrawal is the bloodiest form of battle, the most chaotic. In short, a Bg. leaves behind a Bt. to hold the line, a Bt. leaves behind a Cp. And some figures you will not hear in the media: if the accepted losses percentage per day of hard battle is 4%, for a fighting withdrawal the expected and accepted percentage of losses is 40%. And everyone knows it, the guys tasked to stay behind and hold the line included. Ok, the soldiers might not know it but the officers do or at least they should. Why so many casualties? Because the guys tasked with holding the line need to cover a front 2-3 times wider than their normal capacity. So let this figure sink in to all cheering war, 40%.
They're hurrying up for 24/02/24 the second anniversary of SVO. Mr. Pudding will represent this as a great achievement of the previous two years. Also capturing of Avdiivka shows that "all going to the plan"— no need to be worry.