Hello everybody! Today, I’ll continue with coverage of what’s going on in Avidiivka. Few things are ‘within public domain’ meanwhile, so it’s possible to add few details and thus improve clarity. As mentioned earlier, the ZSU re-deployed the 3rd Assault Brigade to the Avidiivka area. The 3rd is meanwhile one of biggest brigades of the Ukrainian armed forces, including six manoeuvre battalions and plentiful of mortars and artillery. That said, ‘only’ two battalions were actually re-deployed for this mission: the rest is… ‘somewhere else’.
Many thanks for your efforts in bring info a very confused affair (as any fighting withdrawal used to be). The thousands of ruZZian corpses turning sunflowers must be proud to offer to his beloved leader his “election victory” he wants.
Agree, a fighting withdrawal is the bloodiest form of battle, the most chaotic. In short, a Bg. leaves behind a Bt. to hold the line, a Bt. leaves behind a Cp. And some figures you will not hear in the media: if the accepted losses percentage per day of hard battle is 4%, for a fighting withdrawal the expected and accepted percentage of losses is 40%. And everyone knows it, the guys tasked to stay behind and hold the line included. Ok, the soldiers might not know it but the officers do or at least they should. Why so many casualties? Because the guys tasked with holding the line need to cover a front 2-3 times wider than their normal capacity. So let this figure sink in to all cheering war, 40%.
They're hurrying up for 24/02/24 the second anniversary of SVO. Mr. Pudding will represent this as a great achievement of the previous two years. Also capturing of Avdiivka shows that "all going to the plan"— no need to be worry.
At least GSUA learned enough to cut loose when the situation gets untenable. In Zolote/Hirske the rearguard lost what, a battalion captured? Hopefully much less this time.
While I am sure there are important details unknown, mistaken etc here I guess this shows the major elements of what is happening. And of course it is a loss, lets not say anything Else. I hope the rest of the troops manages to get out. But while it is bad news I hope that this can stimulate Europe and US into action regarding ammuntion and support.
Thanks for linking to the post from the soldier caught in the withdrawal from Zenit. It's dangerous to extrapolate too much from one experience, but there are situations that just aren't supposed to happen. Command failing to understand the need to abandon a lost position in time goes against everything Ukrainian forces were suppposed to be good at.
Like, if by simply reviewing DeepState Map every morning people on the other side of the world can see the need for tactical adjustments, but they don't happen, there's a serious issue with command and control ZSU has got to resolve. Contrast that with the highly effective decentralized actions throughout the first year of the war, often fought by reservists backed by civilians.
Sure, the nature of the fighting shifts when trenches cover the front, but as impressed as I have been by the ZSU overall a certain rigidity is creeping into tactics that is going to be a serious problem if not addressed soon. Not as major of an issue as the USA predictably sucking as an ally in the short run, but losing personnel for no good reason is the greatest sin an officer in command can make at this point.
Really great how you're covering this. However this goes, there will inevitably be a lot of spin surrounding the result so it's refreshing to read a summary from someone who isn't with a fixed opinion formed before the battle started or a journalist quoting an oversimplified popular narrative.
So basically Putin is getting his propaganda victory of "denazifying" a 30K settlement.
Many thanks for your efforts in bring info a very confused affair (as any fighting withdrawal used to be). The thousands of ruZZian corpses turning sunflowers must be proud to offer to his beloved leader his “election victory” he wants.
Deep State Map says that "not everyone managed to get out" :(
Agree, a fighting withdrawal is the bloodiest form of battle, the most chaotic. In short, a Bg. leaves behind a Bt. to hold the line, a Bt. leaves behind a Cp. And some figures you will not hear in the media: if the accepted losses percentage per day of hard battle is 4%, for a fighting withdrawal the expected and accepted percentage of losses is 40%. And everyone knows it, the guys tasked to stay behind and hold the line included. Ok, the soldiers might not know it but the officers do or at least they should. Why so many casualties? Because the guys tasked with holding the line need to cover a front 2-3 times wider than their normal capacity. So let this figure sink in to all cheering war, 40%.
They're hurrying up for 24/02/24 the second anniversary of SVO. Mr. Pudding will represent this as a great achievement of the previous two years. Also capturing of Avdiivka shows that "all going to the plan"— no need to be worry.
At least GSUA learned enough to cut loose when the situation gets untenable. In Zolote/Hirske the rearguard lost what, a battalion captured? Hopefully much less this time.
Ty for the info Tom.
Very sad news.
What do you think of this, Tom?
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1758452937515241902
Seems to be using "brigade" units. Would you agree on a tripling of the Russian OOB in Donetsk over 5 months?
While I am sure there are important details unknown, mistaken etc here I guess this shows the major elements of what is happening. And of course it is a loss, lets not say anything Else. I hope the rest of the troops manages to get out. But while it is bad news I hope that this can stimulate Europe and US into action regarding ammuntion and support.
Thanks for linking to the post from the soldier caught in the withdrawal from Zenit. It's dangerous to extrapolate too much from one experience, but there are situations that just aren't supposed to happen. Command failing to understand the need to abandon a lost position in time goes against everything Ukrainian forces were suppposed to be good at.
Like, if by simply reviewing DeepState Map every morning people on the other side of the world can see the need for tactical adjustments, but they don't happen, there's a serious issue with command and control ZSU has got to resolve. Contrast that with the highly effective decentralized actions throughout the first year of the war, often fought by reservists backed by civilians.
Sure, the nature of the fighting shifts when trenches cover the front, but as impressed as I have been by the ZSU overall a certain rigidity is creeping into tactics that is going to be a serious problem if not addressed soon. Not as major of an issue as the USA predictably sucking as an ally in the short run, but losing personnel for no good reason is the greatest sin an officer in command can make at this point.
/endrant
Really great how you're covering this. However this goes, there will inevitably be a lot of spin surrounding the result so it's refreshing to read a summary from someone who isn't with a fixed opinion formed before the battle started or a journalist quoting an oversimplified popular narrative.
How can they be outnumbered so much?