Many thanks for your efforts in bring info a very confused affair (as any fighting withdrawal used to be). The thousands of ruZZian corpses turning sunflowers must be proud to offer to his beloved leader his “election victory” he wants.
Agree, a fighting withdrawal is the bloodiest form of battle, the most chaotic. In short, a Bg. leaves behind a Bt. to hold the line, a Bt. leaves behind a Cp. And some figures you will not hear in the media: if the accepted losses percentage per day of hard battle is 4%, for a fighting withdrawal the expected and accepted percentage of losses is 40%. And everyone knows it, the guys tasked to stay behind and hold the line included. Ok, the soldiers might not know it but the officers do or at least they should. Why so many casualties? Because the guys tasked with holding the line need to cover a front 2-3 times wider than their normal capacity. So let this figure sink in to all cheering war, 40%.
Here you lost me because I don't have a horse in this race. What I wrote is supposed to be a theoretical example on what happens with the defending side in a fighting withdrawal, with support or not. If you decide to turn it into another soul searching exercise, that's is entirely up to you but please leave me out of it.
Actually, Hitler had some opposition. Apparently, Putin has next to none (I can't be sure, because I have only the official sources from Russia, but this is how it looks like). And now Navalny is dead and this is quite striking and frightening.
Kara-Murza is in jail in Russia and several other opposition figures are in exile outside of the country. However, they don't have a cult following - Putin has successfully fragmented the opposition.
You should not forget those Wagners who don't thank Putin for the fate of their commanders.
The "intelligence" - those PR and IT white collars who serve the government - remember what Stalin did to the country and see that the time is biting its tail.
Thus there are very few who support Putin - the country is inflammable, though we don't see where the spark may come from (if Prigozhin is really dead).
May he rest in peace. What you say is very interesting. Indeed killing (literally) the opposition was a successful strategy for Putin. I would expect the country to be flammable, but there is nobody to follow. Who is not dead is in jail. I think for the West Prigozhin (or anybody of his kind) as a leader sounded worse than Putin. Since you mentioned him - his mutiny (hailed by Russians) was a move I still don't understand. I am sure he was able to reach Moscow, too.
So it is good that Russians are cheering the war, but it is not good that others help Ukraine? And do you think if Ukraine surrenders tomorrow, all the current problems will be miraculously wiped out, all is pink, bed of roses?
It was not about your preferences. You entered the strawman about "cheering war". Like us here are "cheering war" because we "have a horse" and you don't. This is a bit cynical. Anyways. I am done here.
Soldiers know it better than their officers in most cases. All good things happen out of radio contact with command - provided the link to fire support stays up. I am biased though, because I was trained as a scout.
They're hurrying up for 24/02/24 the second anniversary of SVO. Mr. Pudding will represent this as a great achievement of the previous two years. Also capturing of Avdiivka shows that "all going to the plan"— no need to be worry.
At least GSUA learned enough to cut loose when the situation gets untenable. In Zolote/Hirske the rearguard lost what, a battalion captured? Hopefully much less this time.
When you compare just numbers it's the way to nowhere. There are a lot of characteristics of military units like experience, quality, military equipment and so on.
The only problem is the fact that the mass of VSRF units is at 60-65% of their nominal strength.
Thus, even if having, say 90-vs-60 advantage in the number of units, actually, there's a parity in the number of active combat troops.
The problem is, really, fucking artillery ammunition and the West not, not, and not shipping what it promised it would. And then Biden complaints he can't bring Netanyahu under control...
While I am sure there are important details unknown, mistaken etc here I guess this shows the major elements of what is happening. And of course it is a loss, lets not say anything Else. I hope the rest of the troops manages to get out. But while it is bad news I hope that this can stimulate Europe and US into action regarding ammuntion and support.
Normally, a bill is brought up for a vote by the Speaker of the House. If he refuses, there is a way for the members to call it up but it's long and difficult (on purpose). By shutting down the house Johnson can delay it even more.
I doubt that anything can be done before January, and then only if the democrats win both the house and senate. Johnson just dangles the hope that something could happen to defuse the pressure on him. The method to work around the speaker’s opposition would require a lot of republicans because some democrats are against funding Ukraine.
Thanks for linking to the post from the soldier caught in the withdrawal from Zenit. It's dangerous to extrapolate too much from one experience, but there are situations that just aren't supposed to happen. Command failing to understand the need to abandon a lost position in time goes against everything Ukrainian forces were suppposed to be good at.
Like, if by simply reviewing DeepState Map every morning people on the other side of the world can see the need for tactical adjustments, but they don't happen, there's a serious issue with command and control ZSU has got to resolve. Contrast that with the highly effective decentralized actions throughout the first year of the war, often fought by reservists backed by civilians.
Sure, the nature of the fighting shifts when trenches cover the front, but as impressed as I have been by the ZSU overall a certain rigidity is creeping into tactics that is going to be a serious problem if not addressed soon. Not as major of an issue as the USA predictably sucking as an ally in the short run, but losing personnel for no good reason is the greatest sin an officer in command can make at this point.
Really great how you're covering this. However this goes, there will inevitably be a lot of spin surrounding the result so it's refreshing to read a summary from someone who isn't with a fixed opinion formed before the battle started or a journalist quoting an oversimplified popular narrative.
Thx a lot. It's the way I approach everything: I want to understand when, where, and why things happen, and then to explain that - foremost to myself. It so happens, I often better understand what's going on while writing that for somebody else (in this case, people like you).
So basically Putin is getting his propaganda victory of "denazifying" a 30K settlement.
Many thanks for your efforts in bring info a very confused affair (as any fighting withdrawal used to be). The thousands of ruZZian corpses turning sunflowers must be proud to offer to his beloved leader his “election victory” he wants.
Deep State Map says that "not everyone managed to get out" :(
There is also a testimony from a 110th Brigade soldier.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C3YlMYUtZON/
https://twitter.com/rulepanic/status/1758288716240707911/photo/1
Ex-Wagner fighters in grey_zone report that wounded were left behind.
Damn...
No, just general considerations
https://t.me/grey_zone/21997?comment=4112180
https://t.me/grey_zone/21997?comment=4112151
Thx. It was the II/110th Mech, Zenit position... that's enough to know...
(The I/110th came out complete...)
:((
Agree, a fighting withdrawal is the bloodiest form of battle, the most chaotic. In short, a Bg. leaves behind a Bt. to hold the line, a Bt. leaves behind a Cp. And some figures you will not hear in the media: if the accepted losses percentage per day of hard battle is 4%, for a fighting withdrawal the expected and accepted percentage of losses is 40%. And everyone knows it, the guys tasked to stay behind and hold the line included. Ok, the soldiers might not know it but the officers do or at least they should. Why so many casualties? Because the guys tasked with holding the line need to cover a front 2-3 times wider than their normal capacity. So let this figure sink in to all cheering war, 40%.
Rather let it sink it to all holding back military support to Ukraine.
Here you lost me because I don't have a horse in this race. What I wrote is supposed to be a theoretical example on what happens with the defending side in a fighting withdrawal, with support or not. If you decide to turn it into another soul searching exercise, that's is entirely up to you but please leave me out of it.
So long as by "cheering" you weren't hinting also "supporting"
Nope, I meant the ones enjoying war. If you feel like material supporting either side, support away !
No one is cheering the war, except Russians.
It's tempting to see your enemies as evil, all of them, but there's good and evil on both sides in every war ever fought.
Yep, tell us how good Hitler was
Actually, Hitler had some opposition. Apparently, Putin has next to none (I can't be sure, because I have only the official sources from Russia, but this is how it looks like). And now Navalny is dead and this is quite striking and frightening.
You can see pictures of people bringing flowers and candles for Navalny all over the world, in Russia too https://meduza.io/live/2024/02/16/umer-navalnyy-onlayn-meduzy
Kara-Murza is in jail in Russia and several other opposition figures are in exile outside of the country. However, they don't have a cult following - Putin has successfully fragmented the opposition.
You should not forget those Wagners who don't thank Putin for the fate of their commanders.
The "intelligence" - those PR and IT white collars who serve the government - remember what Stalin did to the country and see that the time is biting its tail.
Thus there are very few who support Putin - the country is inflammable, though we don't see where the spark may come from (if Prigozhin is really dead).
May he rest in peace. What you say is very interesting. Indeed killing (literally) the opposition was a successful strategy for Putin. I would expect the country to be flammable, but there is nobody to follow. Who is not dead is in jail. I think for the West Prigozhin (or anybody of his kind) as a leader sounded worse than Putin. Since you mentioned him - his mutiny (hailed by Russians) was a move I still don't understand. I am sure he was able to reach Moscow, too.
https://meduza.io/feature/2024/02/16/kak-nam-zhit-bez-navalnogo-chto-delat-oppozitsii-i-stanut-li-repressii-esche-zhestche
So it is good that Russians are cheering the war, but it is not good that others help Ukraine? And do you think if Ukraine surrenders tomorrow, all the current problems will be miraculously wiped out, all is pink, bed of roses?
I never said any of the above. As for my bed, instead of roses I prefer E. Braun sheets. Frette will work also.
It was not about your preferences. You entered the strawman about "cheering war". Like us here are "cheering war" because we "have a horse" and you don't. This is a bit cynical. Anyways. I am done here.
Soldiers know it better than their officers in most cases. All good things happen out of radio contact with command - provided the link to fire support stays up. I am biased though, because I was trained as a scout.
Yes, it is a feeling of something bad is about to happen.
They're hurrying up for 24/02/24 the second anniversary of SVO. Mr. Pudding will represent this as a great achievement of the previous two years. Also capturing of Avdiivka shows that "all going to the plan"— no need to be worry.
At least GSUA learned enough to cut loose when the situation gets untenable. In Zolote/Hirske the rearguard lost what, a battalion captured? Hopefully much less this time.
except it didn't? share a link?
Ty for the info Tom.
Very sad news.
What do you think of this, Tom?
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1758452937515241902
Seems to be using "brigade" units. Would you agree on a tripling of the Russian OOB in Donetsk over 5 months?
When you compare just numbers it's the way to nowhere. There are a lot of characteristics of military units like experience, quality, military equipment and so on.
Is OK, Konrad is doing a good job.
The only problem is the fact that the mass of VSRF units is at 60-65% of their nominal strength.
Thus, even if having, say 90-vs-60 advantage in the number of units, actually, there's a parity in the number of active combat troops.
The problem is, really, fucking artillery ammunition and the West not, not, and not shipping what it promised it would. And then Biden complaints he can't bring Netanyahu under control...
ukrainian units are known to be fully manned, its not like they have been running on fumes for months
Some yes - others not. Many of 110th Mech's companies, for example, were down to 30-35 troops as of the last week....
While I am sure there are important details unknown, mistaken etc here I guess this shows the major elements of what is happening. And of course it is a loss, lets not say anything Else. I hope the rest of the troops manages to get out. But while it is bad news I hope that this can stimulate Europe and US into action regarding ammuntion and support.
The US left for holidays https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4470043-white-house-hits-johnson-for-going-on-recess-without-passing-ukraine-aid/
Acts of sabotaging while on vacation!
Normally, a bill is brought up for a vote by the Speaker of the House. If he refuses, there is a way for the members to call it up but it's long and difficult (on purpose). By shutting down the house Johnson can delay it even more.
I doubt that anything can be done before January, and then only if the democrats win both the house and senate. Johnson just dangles the hope that something could happen to defuse the pressure on him. The method to work around the speaker’s opposition would require a lot of republicans because some democrats are against funding Ukraine.
Thanks for linking to the post from the soldier caught in the withdrawal from Zenit. It's dangerous to extrapolate too much from one experience, but there are situations that just aren't supposed to happen. Command failing to understand the need to abandon a lost position in time goes against everything Ukrainian forces were suppposed to be good at.
Like, if by simply reviewing DeepState Map every morning people on the other side of the world can see the need for tactical adjustments, but they don't happen, there's a serious issue with command and control ZSU has got to resolve. Contrast that with the highly effective decentralized actions throughout the first year of the war, often fought by reservists backed by civilians.
Sure, the nature of the fighting shifts when trenches cover the front, but as impressed as I have been by the ZSU overall a certain rigidity is creeping into tactics that is going to be a serious problem if not addressed soon. Not as major of an issue as the USA predictably sucking as an ally in the short run, but losing personnel for no good reason is the greatest sin an officer in command can make at this point.
/endrant
It is already a serious problem, and that for quite a while, as the knowledge of losses leaks out and now no more men volunteer to go and fight.
Really great how you're covering this. However this goes, there will inevitably be a lot of spin surrounding the result so it's refreshing to read a summary from someone who isn't with a fixed opinion formed before the battle started or a journalist quoting an oversimplified popular narrative.
Thx a lot. It's the way I approach everything: I want to understand when, where, and why things happen, and then to explain that - foremost to myself. It so happens, I often better understand what's going on while writing that for somebody else (in this case, people like you).
How can they be outnumbered so much?