Came across some reports that UA MP revealed EW production plant in Ternopil. Any clue if this has something to do with that missile hitting block of flats? Seems to be corelating at least on the timeline =\
And did you reserved also some Bugatti to the Ferrari? Because for 100-150 Grippen E’s, that were announced week prior Rafales, you could have some.
Re. Ternopyl: single Kh-101; demolished two 9-story residential apartment buildings in a civilian neighborhood (no military facilities are anywhere nearby). One building: Partial collapse from the 3rd to 9th floors (upper section "torn away" or caved in). Second building: Severe fire damage across multiple floors; heavy structural compromise. Overall: Buildings rendered uninhabitable; extensive rubble requiring manual clearance in places due to instability.
I highly doubt Dassault has the capacity to produce 100 Rafales, even if the funding appeared out of thin air. Since 2022, Dassault — like the rest of the French defence industry — has enjoyed full order books after raising prices and selling extensively abroad, particularly to wealthier South-East Asian countries.
In true French noblemen rentier fashion, the sector opted for minimal measures. The most significant effort amounted to introducing tax-exempt overtime, rather than making structural investments.
The result is that our mighty armament giants achieved heroic feats such as Nexter almost producing a two-digit number of cannon barrels per month. At least that’s what our current Prime Minister was claiming last year — back when he was still defence minister — insisting Nexter would soon get there. Meaning that, two years into a major war, CAESAR barrel production still hadn’t hit 10 per month.
The Macron–Zelensky summit resembles the performative diplomacy France deployed toward Lebanon after the 2020 Beirut port explosion: two governments overstating their closeness to maintain the illusion of geopolitical relevance.
To any outside observer, it is a self-inflicted embarrassment.
For Moscow, it simply provides another example of weakness in both Kyiv and Paris.
"Indeed, that the quality of my reporting on Ukraine has decreased so much, they can’t say. "
No, although the quality of reporting varies, it has not decreased. On the contrary, it has improved. As the situation descends into a kind of chaos which is really hard to understand, only the best minds retain any capacity to figure out what is actually going on.
Not only that but it isnt a robotic journalist, you can (unfortunately) understand the swamp of shit this situation is all in, thanks for comming back from the dead to give us this observation general
So what if they're showing such videos? Should that mean Ukraine is winning? It's not on the verge of losing even Siversk (not to talk about plentiful of other places)?
Zelensky and EU are living in Dreamland. You can have industry with huge energy prices. You can buy actual things by taking ever huge debt. Nobody reads bad News and everything will be fine.
The funny thing is what the Raffale is going to accomplish yet the Migs and F16 could not.
Launch Meteors? I partially share your frustration, but let's not pretend that 40 years old pieces of Soviet and American barely modernised legacy are the same as 4+ jet, especially if it is armed with West only long range air-to-air missiles. Considering how Su 34 sometimes approach 30 km from front to drop bombs, even low altitude Raffale would earn a few kills. And jamming, definitely more protection and awareness for pilots than in mig 29
Old F 16 incapable to do it, radar is too weak, missiles have too short range, it would be quickly eaten alive by su 35 if tried, its role is to drop bombs and shot down cruise missiles.
Patriot ambushes are risky due to russian recon+Iskander combo, they sometimes appear even 80+ km from front. Althought it can change with saturation of UA anti air with anti shahed drones, as they confirmed to reach 200+ km per hour, that will quickly deal with recons and even guided shaheds. Right organisation and they will be able to establish sufficiently big recon free zones to allow Patriot to operate safely and survive, but it is in theory.
1 and 2 are true, although they will be more protected due to newer jamming. And no one expects them to solo VKS, it will simply make game fairer, we could see much less carelessness from Ru, who now drop freaking Fab 3000 UMPK from 40 km. With proper preparations, unlike F 16, Raffals will be capable to shot down a few Su 34, if they continue to perform a role of target by flying fully loaded on max speed and great height on counter direction to missile. It would go from one sided game of survival for UA planes to more dangerous affair. But it shouldn't be 100 planes in 10 years, but 12-24 planes(could be 12 rafalls and 12 gripens) in year
So depressing and frustrating. Zero possibility of any kind of hope. Ukrainian people pay the price and West will go back 'business as usual' with Russia. Our only luck is that Russian future is (almost) irreversibly doomed after this senseless war
Mate, BRICS are just switching from western-driven economy to a chinese ruled system one. It won't change the fact that Russia is completely into a long (but not even so long) term existential-threating demographic crisis, that this war just escalated.
Russia as we know just dug (and is going further down drilling) it's own grave just like USSR did in Afghanistan... And wait for Pudding to remove visa necessity for Chinese citizens just like promised during last "hyperturbotruebrofriendship russo-chinese meeting"
Erm... the PRC will have major problems just trying to survive without the USA. Just like the USA meanwhile cannot survive without the PRC. No surprise Dumpf and Pee have delayed their tariffs-negotiations for a year.
Just wait for Chinese "ah-so-trustworthy-friends" to settl... Ehm, visit eastern Russia en masse once visiting visas won't be required anymore.
Realize that Russia just failed reconstruction from USSR dissolution in much more recent days, becoming nowadays banana-republic heavily (supposedly?) nuclear-armed
Mate, hands on heart, Russia is already currently selling its sovereignity to China, in order to continue having the possibility to maul Ukraine (and Georgia).
Better: Putin did, because, to Putin, it just matters Putin's power, stockpiled personal richness and continue to flow richness into his pockets day by day. At expenses of? Doesn't matter so much. To grant such, he would have zero problems to concede even ius primae noctis to somebody on all russian females, shrink Russia, handing influence over -stan-nations to China (already done ✅) and so on.
Putin is just an USSR wreck that is repeating the same suicidal (yet bloody for the neighbours) USSR policies that led to USSR death and disregation in late 80s
Russia (but we could also cite Germany or Japan post WW2) managed to recover from previous shocks because fertility rates at the time were high so the lost population got replenished relatively fast, in one generation, even if the echo of the missing people are still visibile in their demographic tree.
Russia simply does not possess the constellation of necessary things to rebound, primarily due to abysmal demographics, period, but I can also cite just general lack of capacity to direct such an effort and lack of economical basis to finance it.
Handwaving it as "taking a breath" is utterly simplicistic and ignores all conditions necessary for a post-war boom.
The demografic question boils down to cheap housing and high wages for men. These conditions allow the women to stay at home while raising the children.
Both conditions are fully in the grasp of any goverment. Your GDP might not grow so fast yet the population and the quality of living will jump high.
This would have chances to apply if Russia would be limited from Belarusan border to approximately Urals. However, with an autochthonous population irreversibly destined to heavily shrink, good luck in keeping actual whole russian territory united under the same flag. Even (cit) Keystone cops of Moscow perfectly know that allowing Chinese settl... Ehm, brotherly friendly visitors to come in without any kind of visa and control (as extort... ehm, obtained by "best russian bromance pal" Xi) will pose an existential threat to Russia as we know. Then, just add to the equation the fact that, in the past, nowadays and certainly in the (almost near) future, Kremlin couldn't (and wouldn't) care less about russian population living conditions and needs except of Moscow and St Petersburg mid/upper class. Finally, consider that this pointless war of aggression, made just for the whim of a mobster tyrant, just escalated all these issues, probably already far beyond a point of no return: it will probably just be a matter of time, when the war ends (or at least halts), for all such self inflicted major blows to take their inevitable (and probably bloody) toll. Scenario is going to be a new post-Afghanistan, but probably exponentially worse.
This is purely hypothetical. We do not have an example of how a postmodern, reasonably developped country with substantial material and human losses recovers post-war. All recent examples were typically poor nations that had high TFR but also generally poor state capacity.
Your assumption that russia will have cheap housing and high wages post-war is also, why, just because it's theoritically possible? Where will all the men work now that defense orders will be downsized, and the energy industry is agonizing due to losing markets and low prices?
what-ifs are cute, but if you actually think any country of today is going to do a massive societal upheaval, im not sure what to tell you.
putin's system is just going to redistribute its wealth when the average poccnr doesn't complain a blip as it is? hahaha, no. they will also keep bringing in *stan migrants who work for even lower wages.
Also considering real ruzzian population is not even close to declared by pudding's propaganda 142 millions, but more than two times lower number. Soon chinese will replace ruzzian population on moscovia, LOL.
Interesting, how this blog grew from 1 to now 4 members. Of course, it would still be interesting to check Frank's other reports too, if he posts them somewhere.
Regarding Lviv, I find it quite interesting, that even pro Russian channels draw it less catastrophic than you, but they aren't known for their analysis either, except parroting some propaganda shit.
Anyway, I find it quite strange that the hub, housing 50% of UA logistics existed so long. I mean, Lviv was attacked massively with missiles just less than 2 months ago, there were multiple attacks before too, but I never heard from you or others, that you could cause such a significant damage by relatively small number of missiles, considering that it wasn't even a quarter of the barrage. Heard they used more missiles on Burstyn electro station and factory of almost dead radio military producer, looks quite disproportionate.
And it doesn't look like you could build this hub in 2 months either, I though UA logistics was more decentrilised in entry phase too, I really hope you and Frank will be wrong about UA spare logistical capacity, but it is likely a wishful thinking.
Anyway, thanks for the report, looks like you started to write more independent stuff again last time
I really do have a clue why did I start calling the MOD in Moscow (including the GRU there) the Keystone Cops in Moscow.
But... sigh... like 'even a broken watch is showing the right time, two times a day'... so also the Russians had to learn their lessons, sooner or later. Only Zele & Co can't learn anything at all.
I do not think Russians are so dumb. Early in the war Russians did campaign against UA railways. But it was not effective. Ukrainians were not storing stuff in Lviv for a long time. (Maybe except oil.) Some random strike could hit "just" empty buildings. So, there's a possibility Russians got some intel (maybe by satellites, maybe traitors), where ammo or some other stuff is stored at the moment.
Also, what arms used Russians to hit that hub? If (semi)ballistic, expensive, missiles, that would point they had some special intel. If cheaper cruise missiles and/or drones, then could just mean UA air defence has failed. (Maybe the depot was targeted before but UA AD was more successful.)
I really don't follow how without a proper after action sitrep, one can conclude that the strike effectively knocked out half of Ukraine's logistics capacity. I'm sorry but that seems very ludicrous to me at first and multiple glances. And the assumptions western sat companies are intentionally not publishing data because its so bad, sorry but they are in a business, you can pay for them fo release, assuming data exists and whatever restrictions regarding Ukraine exist, they aren't just going to casually release sensitive data for free.
I tried re-reading the post multiple times but it just jumps from a few hazy statements and whats on social media (few videos and photos that to me dont show anything dramatic, buildings are burning yes but no explosions or outright demolished hub, see https://x.com/lostarmour/status/1991173593695146309 )
I'm ready to accept the conclusions with proper proofs, but I don't see them.
Bad no matter how you look at this. It's baffling how after four years of war the Russians have now figured out they should hit the main logistic hub, unless they're too scared to strike close to Poland.
So the bastards finally ran out of schools and kindergartens and are now striking logistics ?
They are still targeting apartment buildings though.
What does your source say about the probable reason why the Russians are not even trying to destroy railway bridges over the Dnipro ?
It is pretty obvious the Ukrainian AD has been degraded to such an extent that they wouldn't be able to stop salvos of drones and missiles launched at any Dnipro bridge.
Russia can't destroy the bridges. There are around 25, half in Kiev, and they aren't in range of VKS FABs, which would be the only economical option. We are talking about Soviet engineered bridges which were designed to survive, for the most part, a World War. The only option would be to employ dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles, and to what end? The Ukrainians will compensate by using ferries and will unload cargo, truck it across the Dnepr Dams, and load it back on to rail. These dams cannot be touched without catastrophic consequence for the civilian population, possibly killing hundreds of thousands.
The Russians, instead, are heavily targeting Ukrainian rail junctions, depots, and rolling stock. Haven't noticed Tom Cooper mention it (though he might have), but in the Ukrainian military blogger sphere, the Ukrainians are complaining about this to no end because of how successful this campaign has been over the last few months.
Makes me wonder: if Ukraine accepts this - or if the USA accept these Russian conditions over Ukraine (and the EU) - why did Ukraine fight for the last 3,5 years? Why all the destruction and losses?
On the other hand - what did all those Russians die for? This does not look like a victory for them. They don't even gain control over the 4 regions of mainland Ukraine which they have already written in their constitution as Russian territory.
Yes, almost the conditions for which he ordered the invasion which he expected to end with clear victory in 3 days.
Now he has lost up to half a million dead, as many disabled, and has nothing to show in return.
And the currently leaked "plans" limit the Ukrainian army to half of its current strength, i.e. 600K, which is much larger than its pre-war size. And it does not limit weapons. Which were the items of the original plan that caused it to be rejected. And if the current plan also contains real security guarantees from the US, it may be accepted, because the strong Ukrainian army and US involvement should make it unprofitable for Russia to retry.
Mate, sorry, but: if even only 50% of this goes through, it's a major victory for Russia. So much so, then Pudding was right even with that about 'it's worth it'.
It's a major PR bomb for the Great Russia which was unable to defeat the corrupt no-state Ukraine ruled by a stoned clown on the battlefield for almost 4 years, and thus has to cede its claims for the territory already registered in its constitution. Where is its greatness?
Ukraine also benefits. The main thing is that it retains its independence, its core territory, armed forces sufficient for peacetime, the remaining functional infrastructure, and the remaining population will have the opportunity to work peacefully on rebuilding the territories under Kyiv's control. Western aid is completely insufficient to recapture what Russia has seized. Ultimately, a bad peace is better than a good war.
Well, if you read at point 4 that "... The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture" it's kind of obvious its Trump's plan only so far. Can't imagine Russia agree to jack up a 100 billion - would be really hard to sell
Написано, что даже серая зона будет юридически признана территорией РФ, с "обещанием" не ставить там войска РФ. А так же, "с обещанием", что войска РФ позволят ВСУ выйти без потерь. Зная, как РФ выполняет "обещания", через неделю после подписания этого договора, их войска зайдут в Днепр и скажут, что "зелёных человечков нет", как говорил в 2014 про Донецк.
It is clear that the Russians will not accept this plan.
For some reason, everyone unanimously forgot how the war in Ukraine began.
And it began with Putin's Ultimatum to America and Europe. In short, the content of the ultimatum: a radical reduction in the military infrastructure and activity of the North Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe and neighboring countries with Russia. Putin also said that if the ultimatum is rejected, Russia will resort to a tough military-technical response. A month after America rejected this ultimatum, the war in Ukraine began.
Ukraine has never been the target of war. For Putin, the war in Ukraine is only a means to force America and Europe to fulfill this ultimatum. Capturing part of Ukraine or the whole of Ukraine is a nice bonus. No more.
Therefore, the Russians will seriously negotiate on Ukraine only if negotiations are held to fulfill the conditions of the Ultimatum. If there are no negotiations on the Ultimatum, the Russians will pretend to be negotiating on Ukraine. And the war will continue.
It is clear that the Russians will not accept this plan.
For some reason, everyone unanimously forgot how the war in Ukraine began.
And it began with Putin's Ultimatum to America and Europe. In short, the content of the ultimatum: a radical reduction in the military infrastructure and activity of the North Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe and neighboring countries with Russia. Putin also said that if the ultimatum is rejected, Russia will resort to a tough military-technical response. A month after America rejected this ultimatum, the war in Ukraine began.
Ukraine has never been the target of war. For Putin, the war in Ukraine is only a means to force America and Europe to fulfill this ultimatum. Capturing part of Ukraine or the whole of Ukraine is a nice bonus. No more.
Therefore, the Russians will seriously negotiate on Ukraine only if negotiations are held to fulfill the conditions of the Ultimatum. If there are no negotiations on the Ultimatum, the Russians will pretend to be negotiating on Ukraine. And the war will continue.
How reliable is this information, and not just another media hoax or a cover-up by interested parties? Maybe someone will use their brains and realize that the media won't publish the details of an intergovernmental agreement BEFORE it's signed?
Came across some reports that UA MP revealed EW production plant in Ternopil. Any clue if this has something to do with that missile hitting block of flats? Seems to be corelating at least on the timeline =\
And did you reserved also some Bugatti to the Ferrari? Because for 100-150 Grippen E’s, that were announced week prior Rafales, you could have some.
First things first: sorry, but, Bugatti is not expensive enough - to me.
Re. Ternopil: Frank's still checking that one.
Re. Ternopyl: single Kh-101; demolished two 9-story residential apartment buildings in a civilian neighborhood (no military facilities are anywhere nearby). One building: Partial collapse from the 3rd to 9th floors (upper section "torn away" or caved in). Second building: Severe fire damage across multiple floors; heavy structural compromise. Overall: Buildings rendered uninhabitable; extensive rubble requiring manual clearance in places due to instability.
I highly doubt Dassault has the capacity to produce 100 Rafales, even if the funding appeared out of thin air. Since 2022, Dassault — like the rest of the French defence industry — has enjoyed full order books after raising prices and selling extensively abroad, particularly to wealthier South-East Asian countries.
In true French noblemen rentier fashion, the sector opted for minimal measures. The most significant effort amounted to introducing tax-exempt overtime, rather than making structural investments.
The result is that our mighty armament giants achieved heroic feats such as Nexter almost producing a two-digit number of cannon barrels per month. At least that’s what our current Prime Minister was claiming last year — back when he was still defence minister — insisting Nexter would soon get there. Meaning that, two years into a major war, CAESAR barrel production still hadn’t hit 10 per month.
The Macron–Zelensky summit resembles the performative diplomacy France deployed toward Lebanon after the 2020 Beirut port explosion: two governments overstating their closeness to maintain the illusion of geopolitical relevance.
To any outside observer, it is a self-inflicted embarrassment.
For Moscow, it simply provides another example of weakness in both Kyiv and Paris.
x10
https://simpleflying.com/europe-annual-fighter-jet-production-analysis/
according to sources France can manage 20-30 planes per year.
They should have done this in 2022, shelved all other export deals, and we would have the delivery done by now.
"Indeed, that the quality of my reporting on Ukraine has decreased so much, they can’t say. "
No, although the quality of reporting varies, it has not decreased. On the contrary, it has improved. As the situation descends into a kind of chaos which is really hard to understand, only the best minds retain any capacity to figure out what is actually going on.
Second that
Not only that but it isnt a robotic journalist, you can (unfortunately) understand the swamp of shit this situation is all in, thanks for comming back from the dead to give us this observation general
Curiosamente las redes sociales de la PSU suben videos de F-16, Mirage 2000 y Patriot casi al mismo tiempo.
Suman para la distracción de Zele?
So what if they're showing such videos? Should that mean Ukraine is winning? It's not on the verge of losing even Siversk (not to talk about plentiful of other places)?
Digo que funcionan igual que en la guerra de Malvinas con el infame título "Estamos ganando "
Yup. Along the Rundschau, the Wehrmacht was 'destroying the Bolshevik hordes' right until 29 April 1945...
Zelensky and EU are living in Dreamland. You can have industry with huge energy prices. You can buy actual things by taking ever huge debt. Nobody reads bad News and everything will be fine.
The funny thing is what the Raffale is going to accomplish yet the Migs and F16 could not.
Launch Meteors? I partially share your frustration, but let's not pretend that 40 years old pieces of Soviet and American barely modernised legacy are the same as 4+ jet, especially if it is armed with West only long range air-to-air missiles. Considering how Su 34 sometimes approach 30 km from front to drop bombs, even low altitude Raffale would earn a few kills. And jamming, definitely more protection and awareness for pilots than in mig 29
Well sure, they can reduce the flow of KABs. The Ukrainian have surd Patriots and F16 to do this until This spring I think.
Old F 16 incapable to do it, radar is too weak, missiles have too short range, it would be quickly eaten alive by su 35 if tried, its role is to drop bombs and shot down cruise missiles.
Patriot ambushes are risky due to russian recon+Iskander combo, they sometimes appear even 80+ km from front. Althought it can change with saturation of UA anti air with anti shahed drones, as they confirmed to reach 200+ km per hour, that will quickly deal with recons and even guided shaheds. Right organisation and they will be able to establish sufficiently big recon free zones to allow Patriot to operate safely and survive, but it is in theory.
Raffale will face the same problems as F16:
1. Airfields which are harrasrd each night by Shaheds and missiles
2. Russia air defense
3. Large Number of Russian bombers which can not be neutralized quickly
The Rafales will fight an attritional warfare where Numbers will overwheight quality.
1 and 2 are true, although they will be more protected due to newer jamming. And no one expects them to solo VKS, it will simply make game fairer, we could see much less carelessness from Ru, who now drop freaking Fab 3000 UMPK from 40 km. With proper preparations, unlike F 16, Raffals will be capable to shot down a few Su 34, if they continue to perform a role of target by flying fully loaded on max speed and great height on counter direction to missile. It would go from one sided game of survival for UA planes to more dangerous affair. But it shouldn't be 100 planes in 10 years, but 12-24 planes(could be 12 rafalls and 12 gripens) in year
So depressing and frustrating. Zero possibility of any kind of hope. Ukrainian people pay the price and West will go back 'business as usual' with Russia. Our only luck is that Russian future is (almost) irreversibly doomed after this senseless war
With rise of BRICS and the eventual collapse of the economy in the US, Russia and China will be doing just fine.
Mate, BRICS are just switching from western-driven economy to a chinese ruled system one. It won't change the fact that Russia is completely into a long (but not even so long) term existential-threating demographic crisis, that this war just escalated.
Russia as we know just dug (and is going further down drilling) it's own grave just like USSR did in Afghanistan... And wait for Pudding to remove visa necessity for Chinese citizens just like promised during last "hyperturbotruebrofriendship russo-chinese meeting"
Erm... the PRC will have major problems just trying to survive without the USA. Just like the USA meanwhile cannot survive without the PRC. No surprise Dumpf and Pee have delayed their tariffs-negotiations for a year.
Russia doom is overrated. Russia did just fine 10 years after Russo-Japanese war or 10 years after WW1 or 10 years after WW2.
Any nation after a catastrofe can take its breath and re-build quickly.
Just wait for Chinese "ah-so-trustworthy-friends" to settl... Ehm, visit eastern Russia en masse once visiting visas won't be required anymore.
Realize that Russia just failed reconstruction from USSR dissolution in much more recent days, becoming nowadays banana-republic heavily (supposedly?) nuclear-armed
Russia is sovereign and is not controlled by UȘ or China. So Russia is not a banana republic.
How are the Chinese going to brake the laws of a nuclear armed state? How can they retaliate when FSB starts arresting Chinese citizens?
About reconstruction and infrastructure. There is a bridge on Kerch strait which is still standing.
Mate, hands on heart, Russia is already currently selling its sovereignity to China, in order to continue having the possibility to maul Ukraine (and Georgia).
Better: Putin did, because, to Putin, it just matters Putin's power, stockpiled personal richness and continue to flow richness into his pockets day by day. At expenses of? Doesn't matter so much. To grant such, he would have zero problems to concede even ius primae noctis to somebody on all russian females, shrink Russia, handing influence over -stan-nations to China (already done ✅) and so on.
Putin is just an USSR wreck that is repeating the same suicidal (yet bloody for the neighbours) USSR policies that led to USSR death and disregation in late 80s
Russia (but we could also cite Germany or Japan post WW2) managed to recover from previous shocks because fertility rates at the time were high so the lost population got replenished relatively fast, in one generation, even if the echo of the missing people are still visibile in their demographic tree.
Russia simply does not possess the constellation of necessary things to rebound, primarily due to abysmal demographics, period, but I can also cite just general lack of capacity to direct such an effort and lack of economical basis to finance it.
Handwaving it as "taking a breath" is utterly simplicistic and ignores all conditions necessary for a post-war boom.
The demografic question boils down to cheap housing and high wages for men. These conditions allow the women to stay at home while raising the children.
Both conditions are fully in the grasp of any goverment. Your GDP might not grow so fast yet the population and the quality of living will jump high.
This would have chances to apply if Russia would be limited from Belarusan border to approximately Urals. However, with an autochthonous population irreversibly destined to heavily shrink, good luck in keeping actual whole russian territory united under the same flag. Even (cit) Keystone cops of Moscow perfectly know that allowing Chinese settl... Ehm, brotherly friendly visitors to come in without any kind of visa and control (as extort... ehm, obtained by "best russian bromance pal" Xi) will pose an existential threat to Russia as we know. Then, just add to the equation the fact that, in the past, nowadays and certainly in the (almost near) future, Kremlin couldn't (and wouldn't) care less about russian population living conditions and needs except of Moscow and St Petersburg mid/upper class. Finally, consider that this pointless war of aggression, made just for the whim of a mobster tyrant, just escalated all these issues, probably already far beyond a point of no return: it will probably just be a matter of time, when the war ends (or at least halts), for all such self inflicted major blows to take their inevitable (and probably bloody) toll. Scenario is going to be a new post-Afghanistan, but probably exponentially worse.
This is purely hypothetical. We do not have an example of how a postmodern, reasonably developped country with substantial material and human losses recovers post-war. All recent examples were typically poor nations that had high TFR but also generally poor state capacity.
Your assumption that russia will have cheap housing and high wages post-war is also, why, just because it's theoritically possible? Where will all the men work now that defense orders will be downsized, and the energy industry is agonizing due to losing markets and low prices?
Post modern means low wage, high debt and no free speach for low classes? Yes it’s pretty hard to grow a population this way.
What if you change the rules of society? Move economic output from upper 1% of the population to the lower 50% and no imigration?
if grandma had wheels she'd be a car
what-ifs are cute, but if you actually think any country of today is going to do a massive societal upheaval, im not sure what to tell you.
putin's system is just going to redistribute its wealth when the average poccnr doesn't complain a blip as it is? hahaha, no. they will also keep bringing in *stan migrants who work for even lower wages.
Also considering real ruzzian population is not even close to declared by pudding's propaganda 142 millions, but more than two times lower number. Soon chinese will replace ruzzian population on moscovia, LOL.
Is there a link available to subscribe to the feed of Frank Armitage ?
Sorry, nope. But, I'll be posting more by him in the coming days.
Interesting, how this blog grew from 1 to now 4 members. Of course, it would still be interesting to check Frank's other reports too, if he posts them somewhere.
Regarding Lviv, I find it quite interesting, that even pro Russian channels draw it less catastrophic than you, but they aren't known for their analysis either, except parroting some propaganda shit.
Anyway, I find it quite strange that the hub, housing 50% of UA logistics existed so long. I mean, Lviv was attacked massively with missiles just less than 2 months ago, there were multiple attacks before too, but I never heard from you or others, that you could cause such a significant damage by relatively small number of missiles, considering that it wasn't even a quarter of the barrage. Heard they used more missiles on Burstyn electro station and factory of almost dead radio military producer, looks quite disproportionate.
And it doesn't look like you could build this hub in 2 months either, I though UA logistics was more decentrilised in entry phase too, I really hope you and Frank will be wrong about UA spare logistical capacity, but it is likely a wishful thinking.
Anyway, thanks for the report, looks like you started to write more independent stuff again last time
Mate, considering how dillatantic was the Russian targeting so far - that's actually no surprise (have described that process, in detail, either in War in Ukraine 6 or War in Ukraine 7: https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-6-the-air-war-february-march-2022.php and https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-7-air-and-missile-warfare-march-june-2022.php ).
I really do have a clue why did I start calling the MOD in Moscow (including the GRU there) the Keystone Cops in Moscow.
But... sigh... like 'even a broken watch is showing the right time, two times a day'... so also the Russians had to learn their lessons, sooner or later. Only Zele & Co can't learn anything at all.
I do not think Russians are so dumb. Early in the war Russians did campaign against UA railways. But it was not effective. Ukrainians were not storing stuff in Lviv for a long time. (Maybe except oil.) Some random strike could hit "just" empty buildings. So, there's a possibility Russians got some intel (maybe by satellites, maybe traitors), where ammo or some other stuff is stored at the moment.
Also, what arms used Russians to hit that hub? If (semi)ballistic, expensive, missiles, that would point they had some special intel. If cheaper cruise missiles and/or drones, then could just mean UA air defence has failed. (Maybe the depot was targeted before but UA AD was more successful.)
I really don't follow how without a proper after action sitrep, one can conclude that the strike effectively knocked out half of Ukraine's logistics capacity. I'm sorry but that seems very ludicrous to me at first and multiple glances. And the assumptions western sat companies are intentionally not publishing data because its so bad, sorry but they are in a business, you can pay for them fo release, assuming data exists and whatever restrictions regarding Ukraine exist, they aren't just going to casually release sensitive data for free.
I tried re-reading the post multiple times but it just jumps from a few hazy statements and whats on social media (few videos and photos that to me dont show anything dramatic, buildings are burning yes but no explosions or outright demolished hub, see https://x.com/lostarmour/status/1991173593695146309 )
I'm ready to accept the conclusions with proper proofs, but I don't see them.
Bad no matter how you look at this. It's baffling how after four years of war the Russians have now figured out they should hit the main logistic hub, unless they're too scared to strike close to Poland.
Thanks for the update. Rather depressing, but that what the situation is.
So the bastards finally ran out of schools and kindergartens and are now striking logistics ?
They are still targeting apartment buildings though.
What does your source say about the probable reason why the Russians are not even trying to destroy railway bridges over the Dnipro ?
It is pretty obvious the Ukrainian AD has been degraded to such an extent that they wouldn't be able to stop salvos of drones and missiles launched at any Dnipro bridge.
Russia can't destroy the bridges. There are around 25, half in Kiev, and they aren't in range of VKS FABs, which would be the only economical option. We are talking about Soviet engineered bridges which were designed to survive, for the most part, a World War. The only option would be to employ dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles, and to what end? The Ukrainians will compensate by using ferries and will unload cargo, truck it across the Dnepr Dams, and load it back on to rail. These dams cannot be touched without catastrophic consequence for the civilian population, possibly killing hundreds of thousands.
The Russians, instead, are heavily targeting Ukrainian rail junctions, depots, and rolling stock. Haven't noticed Tom Cooper mention it (though he might have), but in the Ukrainian military blogger sphere, the Ukrainians are complaining about this to no end because of how successful this campaign has been over the last few months.
Дякую Вам за ваш труд. Я з Запоріжжя, мені дуже сумно...
❗️❗️28 пунктів мирного плану США, — нардеп
1. Безпека та політичний статус України
🟠Підтвердження суверенітету України.
🟠Україна отримує гарантії безпеки від США, але з умовами.
🟠Україна закріплює позаблоковість і відмову від НАТО в Конституції, НАТО підтверджує НЕ членство України назавжди.
🟠Чисельність ЗСУ обмежується.
🟠Україна залишається без’ядерною державою.
2. Територіальні питання
🟠Крим, Донецьк і Луганськ визнаються де-факто російськими.
🟠Херсон і Запоріжжя — «заморожені» на лінії зіткнення.
🟠Частина територій стає демілітаризованою буферною зоною під контролем РФ де-факто.
🟠Обидві сторони зобов’язуються не змінювати кордони силою.
3. Військові домовленості
🟠НАТО не розміщує війська в Україні.
🟠Винищувачі НАТО розміщуються в Польщі.
🟠Діалог щодо безпеки між США—НАТО—РФ, створення американо-російської робочої групи.
🟠Росія юридично фіксує політику ненападу на Україну та Європу.
4. Економічний блок та відбудова України
🟠США та Європа запускають великий інвестиційний пакет на відбудову України.
🟠100 млрд доларів заморожених російських активів — на відновлення України; США отримують 50% прибутку.
🟠Європа додає ще 100 млрд.
🟠Інші заморожені російські активи підуть на спільні американо-російські проекти.
🟠Створення Фонду розвитку України, інвестиції в інфраструктуру, ресурси, технології.
5. Росія у світовій системі
🟠Поступове зняття санкцій.
🟠Повернення РФ до G8.
🟠Довгострокова економічна співпраця США—РФ.
6. Гуманітарні питання
🟠Обмін «всі за всіх», повернення цивільних і дітей.
🟠Гуманітарні програми, возз’єднання сімей.
🟠Освітні програми про толерантність.
🟠Відмова від «нацистської ідеології» (як умова в документі).
7. Енергетика та спецоб'єкти
🟠Запуск ЗАЕС під наглядом МАГАТЕ, електрика — 50/50 між Україною і РФ.
🟠США допомагають відновлювати українську газову інфраструктуру.
8. Внутрішні політичні процеси в Україні
🟠Вибори через 100 днів після підписання угоди.
🟠Повна амністія всім учасникам війни.
9. Виконання та контроль
🟠Угода юридично обов’язкова.
🟠Контроль здійснює «Рада миру» під керівництвом Трампа.
🟠Порушення — санкції.
🟠Після підписання — негайне припинення вогню та відведення до узгоджених позицій.
Таке зараз постять в нашій країні
These are the Russian conditions. OK, thx.
Makes me wonder: if Ukraine accepts this - or if the USA accept these Russian conditions over Ukraine (and the EU) - why did Ukraine fight for the last 3,5 years? Why all the destruction and losses?
On the other hand - what did all those Russians die for? This does not look like a victory for them. They don't even gain control over the 4 regions of mainland Ukraine which they have already written in their constitution as Russian territory.
If this is accepted by Kyiv, it's a clear cut victory for Russia. Precisely the same conditions for which Pudding ordered the invasion.
Yes, almost the conditions for which he ordered the invasion which he expected to end with clear victory in 3 days.
Now he has lost up to half a million dead, as many disabled, and has nothing to show in return.
And the currently leaked "plans" limit the Ukrainian army to half of its current strength, i.e. 600K, which is much larger than its pre-war size. And it does not limit weapons. Which were the items of the original plan that caused it to be rejected. And if the current plan also contains real security guarantees from the US, it may be accepted, because the strong Ukrainian army and US involvement should make it unprofitable for Russia to retry.
Mate, sorry, but: if even only 50% of this goes through, it's a major victory for Russia. So much so, then Pudding was right even with that about 'it's worth it'.
It's a major PR bomb for the Great Russia which was unable to defeat the corrupt no-state Ukraine ruled by a stoned clown on the battlefield for almost 4 years, and thus has to cede its claims for the territory already registered in its constitution. Where is its greatness?
Ukraine also benefits. The main thing is that it retains its independence, its core territory, armed forces sufficient for peacetime, the remaining functional infrastructure, and the remaining population will have the opportunity to work peacefully on rebuilding the territories under Kyiv's control. Western aid is completely insufficient to recapture what Russia has seized. Ultimately, a bad peace is better than a good war.
Well, if you read at point 4 that "... The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture" it's kind of obvious its Trump's plan only so far. Can't imagine Russia agree to jack up a 100 billion - would be really hard to sell
Написано, что даже серая зона будет юридически признана территорией РФ, с "обещанием" не ставить там войска РФ. А так же, "с обещанием", что войска РФ позволят ВСУ выйти без потерь. Зная, как РФ выполняет "обещания", через неделю после подписания этого договора, их войска зайдут в Днепр и скажут, что "зелёных человечков нет", как говорил в 2014 про Донецк.
No need even to comment about this junk ruzz plan. Let them dream along with their plan
It is clear that the Russians will not accept this plan.
For some reason, everyone unanimously forgot how the war in Ukraine began.
And it began with Putin's Ultimatum to America and Europe. In short, the content of the ultimatum: a radical reduction in the military infrastructure and activity of the North Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe and neighboring countries with Russia. Putin also said that if the ultimatum is rejected, Russia will resort to a tough military-technical response. A month after America rejected this ultimatum, the war in Ukraine began.
Ukraine has never been the target of war. For Putin, the war in Ukraine is only a means to force America and Europe to fulfill this ultimatum. Capturing part of Ukraine or the whole of Ukraine is a nice bonus. No more.
Therefore, the Russians will seriously negotiate on Ukraine only if negotiations are held to fulfill the conditions of the Ultimatum. If there are no negotiations on the Ultimatum, the Russians will pretend to be negotiating on Ukraine. And the war will continue.
It is clear that the Russians will not accept this plan.
For some reason, everyone unanimously forgot how the war in Ukraine began.
And it began with Putin's Ultimatum to America and Europe. In short, the content of the ultimatum: a radical reduction in the military infrastructure and activity of the North Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe and neighboring countries with Russia. Putin also said that if the ultimatum is rejected, Russia will resort to a tough military-technical response. A month after America rejected this ultimatum, the war in Ukraine began.
Ukraine has never been the target of war. For Putin, the war in Ukraine is only a means to force America and Europe to fulfill this ultimatum. Capturing part of Ukraine or the whole of Ukraine is a nice bonus. No more.
Therefore, the Russians will seriously negotiate on Ukraine only if negotiations are held to fulfill the conditions of the Ultimatum. If there are no negotiations on the Ultimatum, the Russians will pretend to be negotiating on Ukraine. And the war will continue.
Here is the English version
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia
How reliable is this information, and not just another media hoax or a cover-up by interested parties? Maybe someone will use their brains and realize that the media won't publish the details of an intergovernmental agreement BEFORE it's signed?
I take a very strong coffee, and hope for the best, read about very bad situation.
I have issued a Letter of Intent to buy the book on the 88 Hour War when it's released
Oh come on: just 20 bucks. That's not that expensive... 😉