What is the cost of not supporting Ukraine? We have a Figure

by Benjamin Cook

You might want to sit down.

Those of us that spend hours pouring over documents, history books, philosophies, intel, news articles, and anything else that can give us a general view of geopolitics already knew it would be more expensive to let Ukraine lose than to help them win. Now we have a number. It’s big. It’s really big. Too big for Trump to ignore.

Elaine McCusker, a former Pentagon deputy comptroller, estimates the cost of allowing Ukraine to lose could hit a staggering $808 billion.

Let me longhand that for you: $808,000,000,000.

We need to see the zeros.

To put things in perspective, the U.S. has allocated $125 billion to assist Ukraine. Contrary to popular belief, most of that money (over 80%) stays within the U.S.

A significant portion is funneled to NATO allies and European partners, and only the remainder makes its way to Ukraine. Even then, it’s disbursed in ~$250-$500 million increments—there’s no Obama-style plane loaded with pallets of cash landing in Kyiv. The support comes in the form of arms, military equipment, and other resources.

But here’s the real issue: it’s not about the money—it’s about the policy. And the policy is failing. It’s meant to prevent Russian escalation (total failure) and degrade Russia’s ability to wage war (total failure).

Russia has escalated. It is openly attacking both the USA and Europe by hybrid and asymmetric means.

The Russians have doubled down on brutality, not pulled back. And while Russia is undeniably corrupt and broken, it is learning.

They’re adapting and figuring out how to fight a modern war. From February 2022 to the summer of 2023, their performance was abysmal. But every day they remain in this war, they’re learning how to fight this and future conflicts better—and that should worry everyone. I’ve used this analogy before. It’s like not finishing your course of antibiotics. The bugs just come back stronger and drug resistant. Everyday we allow Russia to remain in this war, they become stronger and more resistant to our capabilities.

Don’t just take my word for it—read the article. In January, there will be a full report with all the details, and I’m looking forward to diving into it. I’m not going to re-explain the how and why of the .808 trillion dollars. The article does a great job explaining it simply. I will say however that even Elon Musk and Donald Trump Jr can do math and see that a longer front is harder and more expensive to defend. If we allow a Ukrainian defeat that is what we will have. A more capable, battle hardened Russia that can press-gang trained Ukrainians into cannon fodder and meat waves along a much wider front. They will take the considerable Ukrainian resources and turn it towards NATO. The tab, just for the USA, would be almost a Trillion dollars to defend it.

***

Please become a paid member. Supporting independent research and dare I say it… journalism… has never been more crucial. I dedicate my time to uncovering and analyzing the complex realities of the war in Ukraine, bringing you well reasoned insights and perspectives you won't find elsewhere. If you value independent voices and fact-driven reporting, I humbly ask for your support. Every contribution helps sustain this work and ensures these stories reach those who need to hear them. Thank you for believing in the power of independent research! Thank you for helping me grow my Substack. Please become a paid member.
Benjamin Cook