War Monitoring - for Beginners, Take II (Part 2)

Here a few good examples for what I’ve explained in the ‘Part 1’.

Back in early July, one of principal of Putin’s PRBS-industrialists has released a video shown a column of Ukrainian MRAPs moving from north towards south along a hedgerow to a point about 1,000m north of Robotyne (southern Zaporizhzhya). The column then runs into mines and is hit by mortars and/or artillery pieces…

Geo-location was easy and, apparently, it ‘confirmed’ this Russian video is ‘truth’. Impression was created that Ukrainians have approached to within 1,000m of Robotyne but where then repelled with loss.

Problem No. 1: the very fact that Ukrainians were advancing in a column of MRAPs by day (as of early July); and,

Problem No. 2: the trees in that hedgerow were (still) intact (as of early July).

Actually: after suffering significant losses in Western-supplied vehicles (less so in troops, but still….) while advancing in this style, early during this (counter)offensive (i.e. back on 5-10 June 2023), both of ZSU units deployed in this area – the 47^th and 65^th Mech Brigades – ceased operating this way. It stopped trying to advance in form of a mechanised attack through the deep Russian minefields.

Instead, since the mid-June Ukrainian units in this sector of the frontline are doing what the 3^rd and 5^th Assault, 24^th Mech Battalion, 57^th Mech, 80^th Airborne, and other ‘infantry’ units are doing in the Bakhmut area since longer, and what the 35th, 36th and 37th Naval Infantry Brigades have so skillfully demonstrated in the Staromaiorske area, in mid-June: advancing in form of small assault units of infantry, supported by sappers and artillery. Such operations are usually run by night, and thus there are next to no videos of them.

Moreover, since its original mechanised drive in direction of Robotyne, the ZSU continued cleaning and widening both of resulting lanes through the minefields. This was necessary because the troops couldn’t move along them, supplies couldn’t move along them, reinforcements couldn’t move along them. Whether because the lanes through minefields were too narrow, too exposed to the Russian fire, or because the Russian artillery re-deployed additional mines. Because, and logically, the Russians reacted with heavily shelling and rocketing the lanes. Their artillery and rockets are lacking precision, though, and thus the hedgerow visible on that video is long since ‘past’: destroyed.

Conclusion is on hand: had this video been taken in early July, there would be next to nothing to see of the hedgerow. The fact the hedgerow is ‘intact’, means it was not. It was taken back in the first half of June.

Therefore: as ‘authentic’ as this video was as of 5-10 June, as of early July it was nothing else but misinformation. Something released for PRBS-purposes. A lie. Therefore, jumping to the conclusion that this video is ‘showing the situation as of early July’, is wrong.

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Another example is much more recent: on 17 July, the Russian PRBS-industrialists have released another video, this time purportedly ‘showing what happened in Staromaiorske a day earlier’ - when some of them reported that Ukraine has liberated the place, only to withdraw such reports, few hours later.

What can be seen on the video are few (probably three) MRAPs moving into the village; one apparently hitting a mine; and then the other two withdrawing….

Now, perhaps it is so that the entire ZSU is consisting of stupid commanders commanding ‘kamikaze’-soldiers: of commanders insistent on driving mechanised formations into build-up areas, where these are easily destroyed by mines and enemy infantry from short range (because there is plenty of cover in build-up areas), and troops either insistent on getting killed, or fatalist enough not to mind getting killed (or maimed). Perhaps it is so that the ZSU is all the time running what the Russians call ‘meat attacks’: pointless, frontal assaults, ending in catastrophic losses. And perhaps it is so that this video was taken on 16 July, as the Russians say.

…at least I have no doubts that there are plenty of people thinking that way. Some of them because it’s simple to think that way, and/or ‘because there is no evidence of something else’. And many because they want this to be truth.

However….Sorry, this is not my stand of information. This is not what I get to hear from the ZSU. No doubt, I could be wrong: but, if I would be, then two things would happen:

• A) after 6 weeks of this fracas, one can be sure that if the ZSU would really operate that way - i.e. still run mechanised attacks by small groups of MRAPs by day - it would have suffered such losses by now, that there would be nothing left of it. Because Ukraine simply has no ‘endless’ supply of troops and vehicles. Indeed: because even NATO has no ‘endless’ supply of vehicles. Quite on the contrary. And,

• B) if the ZSU would continue operating the way it did early during this offensive, have no doubt: there would have been not only a ‘few videos of survivors complaining about incompetent commanders’ to see in the social media. There would be nothing short of a mutiny within the ZSU.

Sure, time and again, there are mistakes. At other times, plans simply do not work (see: situational awareness, explained in Part 1).

But, especially in this counteroffensive, the mass of mistakes were done back in early June, and usually by inexperienced commanders on advice of their super-clever Western advisors. Unsurprisingly, and as mentioned above: the practice of running mechanised attacks by daylight was abandoned quite early. Instead, Ukrainians are fighting along tactics in which they are – by far and large – superior to the mass of the Russian infantry: infantry ‘raids’ by night.

On the contrary, there is plentiful evidence that it is the Russians who are all the time running ‘meat attacks’. And when people are doing things specific way, then they expect everybody else to do them the same way. Indeed: especially the Russian PRBS-industrialists are obsessed with explaining that it is Ukrainians who do not care about their and the lives of their troops, while the Russian commanders, so the same characters say, ‘are extremely cautious about not causing unnecessary damage to civilians and avoiding losses of own troops, but fighting all of NATO, plus Mars people and whomever else’….This is a classic method of the Russian war propaganda: blame the other side for what you’re doing. At every opportunity, please….

….just like there is more than enough evidence that the Russian PRBS-industrialists are all the time recycling old videos - videos taken in the first half of June - with the purpose of misinforming, and discouraging.

Overall, conclusion is on hand: as of, say, 16 July 2023, the ZSU is extremely unlikely to ‘start’ its assault by rushing three MRAPs into a village like Staromaiorske by broad daylight. But, it is extremely likely to try bringing reinforcements and supplies, and evacuating casualties in this way - to and from positions inside the village.

Certain other details can be deducted from the very same video, too.

Firstly, this video was taken from very far way. Gauging by how unclear it is, at least some 1,500 metres away, probably more. Not from inside the village. Secondly, keep in mind ‘that’ with the warfare being neither linear nor static: instead of some kind of ‘Ukrainian kamikaze attack by three MRAP’s, the video is showing the results of an infiltration by the Russian Spetsnaz and ambush of the Ukrainian vehicles, supported by mortars or artillery fire. ‘Easily done’ in the ‘heat of the battle’ and covered by ‘fog of war’ - because warfare is neither linear nor static, because neither Ukraine nor Russia have enough troops to line them up along the entire frontline, and even less so are their commanders as stupid as to try doing that.

….because there are always ‘gaps’ - places not protected by troops and weapons - in the frontline. Especially so after or while this frontline is heavily shelled by enemy artillery, during or after an enemy counterattack and similar.

Something that is regularly done by both sides, that’s happening very often. Because warfare is neither linear, nor static, and because war is constant terror and chaos.

(…to be continued….)