Unplanned Plan

Hello everybody!

Didn’t plan anything for today: actually in need of rest. But, it so happens that the same is the case for many other people - and so, ‘here we are’…

***

Through the afternoon and evening yesterday, Israel continued its operations against Iran… where the question is meanwhile: ‘what exactly are the Israelis (still) targeting’?

Think I’ve stopped yesterday late in the afternoon, around the time the IASF began bombing air defences of the Fordow nuclear facility. This is burried deep underground and the Israelis have no means to hit it directly. They can target approaches and entrances to it, of course - especially with such stuff like AirLora (essentailly: air-launched variant of the Lora tactical ballistic missile, visible on the still from a video below, as released from an F-16I).

The next wave of IASF fighter-bombers was tracked at several points in Syria and Iraq while approaching Iran. For example, this F-16 high above Dayr az-Zawr (eastern Syria):

…and this F-15 while passing high above Tuz Kumratu (southern central Iraq):

This was followed by appearance of videos showing contrails left by Israeli jets releasing their air-launched ballistic missiles:

Except for ‘many’ incoming Israeli missiles, the Iranians claimed to have shot down a single Heron TP during Israeli attacks in the Fordow area (reportedly: by Tor M1E/SA-15 Gauntlet SAM-system), but have shown no videos of its wreckage.

For your easier orientation, here two maps of western Iran. One showing major air bases of the IRIAF:

…and the other showing the pre-war disposition of the IRGCASF’s and IRIADF’s primary SAM-systems:

Shortly after (that was around 19.00hrs local time), the Iranians claimed to have shot down ‘an Israeli jet’, apparently in the Tehran area. Before soon, the ‘jet’ in question was widely reported as ‘F-35’. The video ‘confirming’ this is actually showing a small white parachute with ‘something hanging underneath’ - something like parachutes used to recover some of UAVs - but certainly none of orange, black and white parachutes as used by F-35-pilots.

Such unofficial claims were rapidly ‘expanded’ to official reports about the downing of two, and then three F-35s - including one by Iranian (Grumman) F-14A Tomcat interceptors (‘the jet flown by Tom Cruise in “Top Gun” movies’; back in the 1970s, Iran was the sole export customer). Some were reporting that one female pilot was captured, but that she was dead (some even reported the name of the pilot in question as ‘Sarah Ahronot’). Point is: no clear evidence for all these claims has surfaced: the Chinese social media then came up with a number of fake ‘photographs’ (all generated by the AI) ‘showing wreckage with big Israeli national insignia’. All of that is simply bollocks.

So far, have found only one video showing any kind of genuine wreckage: this was taken the last night, outside Buin Zahra (Qazvin Province), appeared early this morning, and is not enabling exact identification of whatever was shot down:

During the evening, the IASF then bombed the Tactial Fighter Base 3 (TFB.3) of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF). Positioned outside Hamedan (western Iran) and also known as ‘Nojeh’ (after an IRIAF pilot killed when crashing his F-4 while fighting Kurdish insurgents in north-western Iran of 1979), this is a facility famous from the times of Iran-Iraq War. It used to house the 31st Wing of the IRIAF, equipped with old F-4E and RF-4E Phantom II fighter-bombers and reconnaissance fighters, respectively. According to official Israeli claims, the TFB.3 was ‘destroyed’. The IDF did not release any imagery confirming this, though. Only this diagram of the TFB.3:

Shortly after, the IASF reportedly targeted the TFB.8. This is a much bigger facility outside Esfahan, in central Iran: the home base of the IRIAF flight schools and the F-14-fleet. Haven’t found any photos or videos confirming this, though.

Finally, reports surfaced about Israeli strikes on unknown objects in the Bushehr area (this port-city on the coast of the Persian Gulf is including the site of two operational nuclear reactors, and the TFB.6, which is housing F-4s responsible for the defence of the area).

During the night, Mossad operatives inside Iran then hit the TFB.1, in Mehrabad (district in southern Tehran) with UAVs, prompting vicious reaction from Iranian air defences (primarily anti-aircraft artillery). IASF hit the Koohdasht radar station (used for regulating civilian air traffic) north-west of Tehran, the IRGC HQ in Pirouzi Street (Tehran), a column of TELs for inter-mediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) underway outside Asadabad, the base of the 216th Armoured Brigade in Zanjan (also north-west of Tehran), and Qom.

How is the 216th Armoured Brigade ‘mortal danger’ for Israel - no idea, but to me it appeared as if the Israelis began running out of targets they could find and pilots began unloading ordnance upon ‘alternative’ targets (whatever was ‘next in the area in question’ on their targeting lists).

Overall, unofficial Iranian sources are reporting both TFB.2 (Tabriz) and TFB.3 as ‘out of service’, and ‘heavy losses’ of air defence units, though no details.

***

Between 20.00 and 21.00hrs local time, the IRGCASF then began deploying its ballistic missiles for strikes on Israel. Considering how many of its TELs the Israelis have claimed to have destroyed earlier, the sheer size of the same came as quite a surprise. Indeed, according to official Israel, throughout the night Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. Correspondingly, ‘only’ about 25% of these (‘less than 50’) were ‘not intercepted, ‘according to protocol’ - because they were about to come down within empty areas.

A closer look at the developments is revealing a fundamentally different situation.

The first, and most of the second wave of Iranian ballistic missiles were met with vicious reaction of Israeli and US air defences deployed in Israel. Dozens of Arrow-II, Arrow-III, David’s Sling- and THAAD interceptors were fired, and they shoot down the majority of incoming missiles. This was particularly valid for missiles targeting the Rafael Military complex in Haifa.

However, already during the third wave, the reaction of Israeli and US air defences was much more reduced (seems: they’ve spent the most of their ammunition to defend from the first and second wave, and haven’t had enough time to re-load) and numerous Iranian missiles came trough. Around 01.14hrs, one hit near the building of the Israeli Ministry of Defence, in downtown Tel Aviv, damaging the same and the nearby David’s Sling SAM-site.

The MOD building was set afire: immediately after, the Israeli military censorship cut off all further reporting about damage caused. As result, there are only videos taken from the distance showing additional Iranian missiles striking a 50-story skyscraper, the area with the compound of Mossad HQ, a ‘strategic area’ in southern Tel Aviv (where, RUMINT has it, a SAM-site and a nuclear research centre were hit). Another missile was shot down over Rishon LeTsion, but still killed two civilians and caused massive material damage:

The fourth and fifth missile waves encountered next to no Israeli air defences: they primarily targeted… ‘something in southern Israel’: apparently, the Nevatim AB and the nearby Dimona nuclear complex. There are no reports about the damage caused there.

With other words: this is a ‘pure battle of attrition’.

Crucial factors are now going to be such like (just few examples coming to my mind right away):

• how many ballistic missiles has Iran left?

• how many ballistic missile interceptors has Israel left, and the USA can rush to Israel?

• how much longer can the IASF continue operating over 1,200-1,500 kilometres range to maintan ‘continuous’ presence over Iran, and continue striking targets there?

Right now, I do not have any clear responses.