Ukraine War, 9 December 2025 (UPDATED)
Hello everybody!
Writing this one out of… nah, it’s not even ‘frustration’ any more: I’m actually wondering if I could find suitable words to express how perplexed I am about the conduct of operations by the Glavcom Syrsky & Buddies: at least I do not think that what the same is doing - and what is the GenStab in Kyiv then reporting in the public - can be described as a ‘kindergarten’ any more…
For those on the ground in Ukraine, it’s ‘tragic’. For me: ‘precisely as expected’…
See here…
On 6 December,
Dobrotvir TPP in the Lviv Oblast was targeted by 8 Kh-101s (mind: these were actually the last Russian missiles of that night to reach their target);
Burshtyn TPP in the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast was hit by 3-4 Kh-101s;
Ladyzhyn TPP in the Vinnytsia Oblast was hit by up to four Kh-101s;
Kyiv 750kV substation (Kyiv) was targeted by 1 Kinzhal and 5 Kh-101s;
Pivnichna 330kV substation (Kyiv) was targeed by 3 Iskander Ms (1 shot down by SAMP-T);
the 110kV substation in Novi Petrivtsi (Kyiv) was hit by several Geran-2s;
an unknown object (related to power supply) in the Kremenchuk area was targeted by four Kh-101s;
Industrial zone in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast containing several 150kV substations was targeted by 2 Iskanders (1 shot down), and 4 Kalibrs;
750kV substation in Vasylivka (or in Znachkove? …both are in the Zaporizhzhya Oblast) was hit by four BM-30s;
In Kherson (City) also a substation was knocked out;
the Kryvyi Rih TPP in Zelenodorsk, was hit by five Iskander-Ms (I doubt anything but few ruined walls and lots of metal wreckage were left intact);
Adzhalik 330kV substation in the Odesa Oblast was hit by 1 Iskander M…
…another 5-6 Kh-10s and 3 Kinzhals have targeted unknown objects in the Khmelnytskyi Oblast; 5 Kh-101s and at least one Geran-2 have hit several objects in the Bila Tserkva area (including the combined PP and heat plant); 1 Iskander targeted unknown objects in the Dnipropetrovsk area, while Geran-2 (and similar) attack UAVs and BM-30s were deployed to target more than 50 different other places (incl. the logistics centre in Lutsk, again)…
AFAIK, five MiG-31Ks and four Tu-95s were involved (all from Engels-2 AB); the frigate Admiral Makarov, too.
Obviously ‘marking’ where they want to go as next, the last two days the Russians then pummelled the infrastructure in the Slovyansk-Kramatrosk area - or whatever is connected/related to it, even if outside the same area.
On 7 December, two or three Kinzhals have targeted the Kremenchuk power plant: one was shot down by a MIM-104, but the other (or the others) caused a large fire. In coordination with this strike, Geran-2s then hit the local refinery and a key electrical substation, knocking out the power-supply for most of Ukraine east of the Dnipro.
Then two Iskander-M (both with CBUs) and several Geran-2s hit Slovyansk (indeed: this town was hit the hardest), while Geran-2s have targeted different points in Kramatorsk and the Slovyansk TPP in Mykolaivka. Finally, additional Geran-2s hit the railways network in Fastiv (already badly damaged on 6 December, when it was hit by 10-12 Geran-2s), Chernihiv City, Novhorod-Siverskyi, and Ripky. The GenStab-U might be claiming something else (meawnhile it’s sure: they do live in Zele/Syrsky’s parallel universe), but when one cross-checks reports by the locals, at least 20 different hits were recorded…
Less than 24 hours later, two Geran-2s hit the Chernihiv powerplant, while two Kh-36 Grom E1s (the rocket-powered version of what is usually deployed as a glide bomb: the Grom E2) hit the Pechenihy Dam, knocking out the primary supply link for the ZSU in the Vovchansk and Kupyansk areas. Finally, two UMPKs targeted the Workshops 6, 46, and 60 of the JCS Motor Sich Plant in Zaporizhzhya: Ukrainains living there say both have missed; a video released by the Zaporizhzhya OVA showing damage to residential buildings across the Omelchenka Street (all windows blown out and lots of shrapnel damage) is indicating something else…
BTW, during these operations, the Kaskad Brigade (the Russia’s primary Geran-2-operator) also began targeting technicals of the Ukrainian Machine Gun Battalions: 4WDs mounting heavy machine guns - and that by attack UAVs equipped with video cameras. At least one vehicle was destroyed in Chernihiv.
Guess, I’m not the only one feeling like I do: when a senior officer of the 39th Brigade, PSZSU, Lieutenant Colonel Yevgeny Vitaliyovich Ivanov (yes, ethnic Russian), attempted to counter some of this flying a Su-27 interceptor, on 7 December, he encountered a typical VKS ‘trio’ of our days: an R-37M-armed Su-35S, escorting a pair of Su-34s (precisely as described in Air War: How’z dad working, Part 4) - that was in the process of deploying UMPKs on targets in the Dobropillya area. The Russian Su-35S detected the Ukrainian interceptor from well away and fired a single R-37M: the Su-27 was hit northwest of Malotaranivka, and Ivanov killed…
The GenStab-U is zip-lip about all of this: only reporting how much of what the PSZSU claims to have shot down. Indeed, the GenStab-U is also still showing Pokrovsk as ‘100% controlled by the ZSU’. Myrnohrad and Rodinske too… 🙄
Actually, in the Pokrovsk sector, the Russian advances from north of that town and from north of Myrnohrad have created a solid encirclement around the battalion of the 38th Naval Infantry Brigade still holding out inside Myrhnohrad. The ZSU’s efforts to punch through and lift the siege have all failed: that unit now definitely can’t get out. Where the ZSU-held pocket in Myrnohrad is constantly decreasing, too: the Russians have captured the Zapadny District, reached the Stusa Street and are infiltrating high-rise buildings in the 40th District.
…and if that is not enough: two days ago, north of Myrnohrad the VSRF completed the seizure of Rodinske.
As said: official Kyiv is zip-lip on this. Merely Suspilne reported a ‘successful withdrawal’ of forces - that was the 25th Mech - that were almost surrounded south of the two towns. Which is now making lots of people think that this would mean that all the ZSU forces have been evacuated from Myrnohrad on time.
That is plain wrong, however. What the Suspilne reported yesterday is what we’re reported back in early November (see Evacuation, Retreat, Withdrawal… Defeat, from 7 November) - and related to the withdrawal of the 25th Mech from the area south and in between of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
…and don’t let me go into the situations in Kupyansk, Siversk, or Kamyanske (where the Russians seized Stepove)…
But hey! It’s simple: if one intentionally and systematically ignores the problem, then there is no problem.
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Because it seems that in Ukraine of these days, next to nobody is ready to draw maps of this kind (indeed: that there is something like preference for denial of reality), here you are: the map of the situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area as known to me as of yesterday in the morning.
Didn’t enter them but, AFAIK, the VSRF units involved are (clockwise), 9th MRB (Chervonyi Lyman), 5th MRB (Kozatske), 29th CRBN Brigade (Petrivka), and 30th MRB (Pokrovsk).
…and, while I’m that, this was the Russian breach of the frontline in the Kamyanske area (southern Zaporizhzhya), the last two days.
For Syrsky, it’s hopelessly too late. Thus, can only hope, somebody might have the opportunity to throw a few buckets of ice-cold water into Zelensky’s face (one is certainly not going to be enough).
There is no super power like the power of denial! Thank you for the update. Much as I loathe the facts you are writing about I appreciate you writing them. We need to understand. And support a transformation in the Ukrainian defense forces. In the mean time, how about some Christmas stuff for the Rickshaw?
Tom, you were misinformed. I can surely claim that JSC Motor Sich wasn't hit last week. I am very familiar with the situation in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia. Not Motor Sich, not the designed bureau Progress, not the permanent duty station of the 55th Artillery Brigade weren't hit. It's 100%.