Ukraine War, 4 March 2023

Hello everybody!

Hello everybody!

I’m a little bit short on time, today, thus ‘just most important’ details and few thoughts…

STRATEGIC

Yes, there is a glimmer of hope — that at least few of idiots calling themselves ‘Western decision-makers’ might have understood what might matter in Ukraine. Correspondingly, there’s a — slowly, very slowly — growing number of reports about an increasing number of shipments on ammunition and heavy infantry weapons.

Not going to post any of related links, because — in grand total — these are still too few. Foremost, such reports do not mean any of supplies in question have already reached the battlefield: there’s no reason even to be happy about them, because it’s still too few, too late.

On the contrary: there’s only yet more reason for bitter critique. Just for example, and after all the marvelous announcements since ‘Rammstein Meeting, 20 January’, and all the public pushing, kicking and belittling of Germany, and critique for Scholz, it turned out that all the dummies promising Leopards aren’t standing to their pledges, and — surprise, surprise — even M1s from the USA aren’t going to reach Ukraine any time soon. As a result, now it’s down to Germany and Poland to provide ‘tanks’…

….all of which is a natural result of short-sighted, ad-hoc and haphazard decision-making of the last 12 months, in regards on how to support Ukraine — bolstered by sensations-horny- but incompetent mainstream media, the reporting of which is meanwhile below standards of the Russia Today. And then people wonder why do I call them idiots…

Now mind: in grand total, and actually, and regardless of all the Russian wrongdoing and violations of all the possible international arrangements, agreements and treaties, we — the ‘collective West’ — are still at the level of ‘shall we or shall we not’ (support Ukraine). We’re still at least ‘miles away’ from making 1000% sure Ukraine is really going to get everything it needs, and that on time, and as long as it takes (so also regardless of any possible changes in our governments in future elections); not to talk about being ‘light years away’ from taking care the ZSU to get the high-tech weaponry that would enable it to kill VSRF at ‘exchange ratios’ actually necessary to win this war (which would be anywhere between 20-for-1 and 100-for-1 or higher). Instead, ‘we’ are still discussing whether Ukraine should get 30(+)-years-old Western weaponry — atop of all the ex-Soviet junk we’ve already dumped upon it — and expect it to be grateful for that, too… and we’re still outsourcing: after all, it’s ‘cheaper’ — read: more profitable — to re-launch production of 122mm shells in Kostenets in Bulgaria, just for example…

But hey: we have all the time of the world…

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

The VKS remains highly effective with its ‘S-300-Offensive’: blasting about a dozen of these at Ukraine a day: on average, 6–7 out of 12 are malfunctioning, those that do decide to actually function are then massacring Ukrainian civilians…

The VKS flew another 50+ strikes against targets in the Bakhmut area; the PSU some 13. Ukrainian air defences claimed the downing of one Mi-24/35 attack helicopter and one Su-25, but haven’t found any evidence for this. ZSU’s long range artillery seem to have hit two additional Russian supply depots some 20–30km behind the frontline, but that was still not enough to slow down the pace of Russian assaults. Indeed, it didn’t even slow-down the pace at which the VSRF is meanwhile deploying its Lancet UCAVs in the Bakhmut area, for example.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kupyansk…yesterday, Ukrainian authorities announced a partial evacuation of the local population. The first to go are disabled, elderly and kids. The decision seems to be based on reports about a big concentration of VSRF troops east of the town, including the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Divison, 18th Motor Rifle Division, and 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade.

I’m always a little bit of a ‘Devil’s advocate’, so let me remind you that a lots of locals are pro-Pudding/Russia, and are looking forward for these to ‘return’. This might be unpleasant to conclude, and unfair to those Ukrainains from this and similar areas who are not, but it’s a matter of fact. Thus, it’s safer to have them out of the way also in order to prevent them from informing the FSB and GRU about what is the ZSU doing there.

Kremina…for all the Russian attacks in this area of the last six weeks, and to the best of my knowledge the ZSU is meanwhile in de-facto control over Dibrova, and back in the southern outskirts of Kremina. Indeed, according to the GenStab-U, the VSRF artillery meanwhile has to shell south-western parts of the town. There’s very little as satisfactory in this war as monitoring all the abysmal failures of such of ‘crack’ VSRF-formations like this Group Tsentr.

Bakhmut…the situation as of the last night was still the same as of the night before, depicted on the map below. The ZSU has completed its withdrawal from positions west of the Bakhmutovka River (apparently, it was the 93rd Mech that was the last to cross); other units have been completely withdrawn from the town.

Shouldn’t mean the entire Bakhmut ‘fell’ or the ‘Russians broke through the Ukrainian defences’: indeed, and contrary to reports by all the possible Pudding-fans in the social media — even by highly praised, self-congratulating ‘journalists’ of the Austrian national broadcaster ORF, just for example — the ZSU garrison is far from ‘completely surrounded’. What happened in eastern Bakhmut was what’s called a ‘phased withdrawal’, going on already since 28 February (as reported). Once the troops have left, the bridges were blown up. Sure, the Wagner claims to have already crossed the Bakhmutovka, somewhere in the Tsentralnyi Rynok area, but it’s on them to provide evidence for this, too.

As of yesterday evening, the 3rd Assault, the Georgian Legion, the 24th Mech, the 80th Assault….to name a few — have held their positions where it matters the most. For example in Khromove, in Ivanivske, south of the Korsunskogo Street, and that hill above Klishchivka, like in the days before. The ZSU actually has another way into the town, mentioned earlier, but let’s leave it at the fact that both the Roads 0504 and 0506 remain ‘open’, even if under the Russian shelling. In between other, because the three artillery brigades of the ZSU deployed in this area (26th, 40th and 43rd) are still restricted in their ammunition expenditure…

Ozeryanivka-Mayorske… somebody asked, a few days ago, ‘what’s going on there’. No clear idea, because both sides are only mentioning shelling. But, seems, the Russians attacked from that area (both Ozeryanivka and Mayorske are under the Russian control) on Toretsk, and got smashed in the process, as visible here, too.

Avdiivka… The last 7–10 days, the Russians are grinding through the complex of ZSU fortifications north of Vodyane and Optyne. Reportedly, have suffered massive casualties in the process — further increased when the 53rd Mech (ZSU) repelled a Separatist mechanised assault, some 3–4 days ago. As meanwhile usual, the ‘Separatist’ was relative, because Separatist units were ‘re-filled’ by mobiks from Mordovia and Mari El, and from Irkutsk, who then began complaining about their losses. RUMINT has it that in reaction to their complaints, the VSRF re-grouped them and sent them into a new assault. That said, my impression is that they have grinded themselves about half-way to southern Avdiivka, meanwhile. I.e. that this show-down is also about to reach its climax.

Pervomaiske…actually, the VSRF didn’t even secure the western part of Vodyane, and thus remains well away from Pervomaiske, which it reached for the first time back in August the last year…but hey, they’re ‘advancing’… somewhere in that direction, or so say Pudding-fans.

Mariinka… the Russians are still assaulting into the centre of the town, still without success, and still on Pobieda, further south, still without success.

Vuhledar…over the last week, the VSRF re-directed the mass of its attacks further east, in direction of the Pvdennodonbaska Coal Mine — and continued wasting own troops and vehicles in the process.

***

For the end, Something like ‘my personal memo’, particularly regarding Bakhmut: within the ZSU there are many who seem to be convinced that the plan was envisaging a withdrawal from Bakhmut ‘already’ around 16 February. According to them, the withdrawal was delayed for political reasons — but also because Syrsky promised to Zelensky he’s going to hold the town…

No idea if its truth, but to me it appears quite a few involved people are too much in love with themselves — probably because a lots of Ukrainian public is, whenever forced to make up its mind, ‘short-cutting it’: always distrustful of its oligarchy, politicians, and decision-makers, it prefers ‘social-media heroes’ — for example because these are releasing lots of videos shown them ‘bombing the Russians’.

If you didn’t already know it, you might become aware of it now: I’m not only a party crusher but also somebody with ‘ruined reputation’ and ‘highly controversial’. And, if nothing else, thanks to the fact Ukrainians are fighting as well as they do, I’m ‘safe’ (for the time being) and have it easy to say… Anyway, my point is: permit me to remind everybody that from the ‘I’m ah-so-popular in the social media’-point of view, it’s easy to blame — whether directly or indirectly — both ‘fagot generals’ and ‘jealous politicians’.

Actually, the popularity of social-media-releases is no indication of anybody’s effectiveness in combat. For example, UAV-drivers are never going to show us all their misses, and rarely show us losses of their UAVs. Indeed, they’re not going to let us know even how many hundreds of UAVs have they lost in the Bakhmut area of the last two months alone. In comparison: every single mistake of decisionmakers is, usually, obvious before soon.

To make sure: there’s no doubt that the politicians are to blame: after all, they have left themselves be ‘elected’ into their positions and it was their responsibility for failing to listen to warnings and to properly prepare Ukraine for this war. It was their responsibility that they’ve squandered the last five-six months discussing ‘offensive’ weapons with NATO (see: ‘F-16s and tanks’), instead of taking care NATO to bolster the supply of UAVs, heavy infantry weapons and, above all, AMMUNITION (especially artillery ammunition) and spares.

And, it was the responsibility of ‘fagot generals’ to, for example, build up defences of the country instead of sending units like, for example, the 57th Motor Rifle to Donbass, in turn leaving places like, for example, Nova Kakhovka open to a quick Russian advance (and that on the very first day of the war).

It’s the combination of such mistakes that’s the reason why the ZSU now has to liberate so much of Ukraine — or suffer additional losses in lives and limb while trying to prevent Pudding’s hordes from capturing and destroying even more.

They — the politicians and the generals — will have to find a way to sleep with all of their failures.

‘Namely’, one should keep in mind that neither ‘politicians’ nor ‘fagot generals’ are anything else than average people: people, ‘actually’, exactly like you and me, and thus, regularly, making mistakes in judgement. Where there is a difference is that they have to keep entire nations together while kicking all the possible idiots in the West to continue providing supplies, or preventing hyenas of the World Bank and similar noble instances from converting Ukraine into another gambling house, like Grenada after 1983, Panama after 1989, or Afghanistan after 2001 (that’s Zelensky’s job). Others have to keep entire ZSU — and all of its little Napoleons, plus characters who think ZSU is a suitable playground for their political games — together, while finding a way to screw up Pudding (that’s Zaluzhny and Syrsky’s job). And one should keep in mind that all of them, plus all the popular UAV-drivers, are ‘kept afloat’ by little else than their ‘public popularity’: thus, they’re all certain never to brag in the public about their failures.

Lesson should be obvious: it’s on every single one of us to remain sober and not to idolise anybody. Otherwise, we’re going to end like the Russians.