Ukraine War, 3 October 2023

Hello everybody!

Another ‘shorty’ for today, in between of (if anybody is interested in ‘details’ of professional life of a military analyst & historian) finishing a certain book and drawing illustrations for it.

Bakhmut… Yes, fighting in the Bakhmut area is, definitely, ‘back’ – primarily because the Russians have realised that, if they do not resume their (costly) counterattacks, Ukrainians are free to advance north and east of the railway line south of the town. Indeed, in such case, the VSRF will have no time to mine and construct a line of fortifications along the highway from Bakhmut via Opytne to Odradivka and further south. This might be urgently necessary considering the activity of the ZSU artillery in this area: reportedly, this knocked out some 20+ Russian artillery pieces, south east of Bakhmut, the last 24 hours alone. Moreover, because of the Russian restraint, the last few days the 28^th Mech was free to exterminate most of the 57^th MRB, the ‘garrison’ of Kurdyumivka: for once, I’ll make a ‘prediction’ in so far that, yes, unless the Russians launch a major counterattack in that area, the ruins of this place are likely to become liberated in the week ‘or so’.

What is certain by now is that the Russians have regrouped their forces south of Bakhmut around the 31^st and 83^rd VDV Brigades, plus the 88^th Motor Rifle Brigade. They might have – this is RUMINT – added something like ‘Assault Corps’ of ex-Wagner PMC’ to that. And these have promptly returned to the practice of near-constant, small counterattacks – with, for the time being, such a success, that they’ve already lost a number of positions along the eastern side of the railway berm.

Indeed, by now it’s safe to confirm that - already back between 25 and 27 September - the ZSU has penetrated the first line of the Russian defences east of the railway berm in the Andriivka area and made good advance in the direction of Odradivka.

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Novoprokopivka-Verbove… Must admit, I’m still reluctant to go into more details - not only because detailed and reliable info is scarce these days, but also because there is a lots of ‘back and forth’. See: attacks, counterattacks, shelling, drone strikes, attacks, counterattacks, shelling, drone strikes… Thus, mind that whatever might follow ‘now’ might - and is likely to - change in the next 15 minutes…

What is sure is that - fierce - house-to-house fighting is raging through all of Novoprokopivka, from the big complex of Russian fortifications north-west and north of the village (many of these underground: that alone is going to take ‘few days longer to clear’), to centre of the ruined village, as the 46^th Airborne - supported by at least one extra battalion of troops trained in urban warfare (in addition to one UAV-detachment and most of ZSU’s artillery deployed in this area) - is pushing through what’s left of three different Russian regiments. RUMINT has it the foremost Ukrainians are ‘past the centre’ (of the village) - but I’m not sure if this was temporary advance, or something more permanent.

Some of hedgerows north-west of Novoprokopivka are still ‘relatively intact’. Trying to advance through them - and that while the area is now heavily mined (the Russians have had enough time to deploy additional minefields), and against positions not all of which are known to the ZSU…. is frequently resembling a ‘nightmare’. In other areas, the terrain is not only flat, but also lacking any kind of cover, which is also making any kind of advance a ‘nightmare’ (yes, even by night).

That said, my impression is that – after a break of several days - the Russians are back to counterattacking into flanks of the Ukrainian advance. It is certainly so that – supported by MPK/UMPK-strikes on the Mala Tokmachka area, and Lancet drones and Ka-52 attack helicopters (yes, both are back to this sector of the battlefield) – the 234^th VDV has forced the Ukrainian 65^th Mech – reinforced by parts of the 116^th Mech – away from Kopani and is pushing in direction of Robotyne again.

How comes?

As far as I know, the HQ of the 58th CAA is not even in control of the battle on the Russian side any more: its troops have been told to remain where they are, and not to fall back, no matter what’s happening around them. Occasionally, reinforcements are sent forward, so that selected positions remain ‘stuffed full’ of the Russians. But, there’s no reliable communication between headquarters of the army and those of different units left. The Russian troops are doing exactly what they’ve been told to do: sit inside their bunkers, and fight from time to time until killed (or, in very few cases: captured).

However, the VDV does have better communications and thus can run counterattacks.

Certainly enough, this resulted in higher Russian losses in IFVs, but nevertheless: it had (and still has) its effects. The reason is that the TF Tavriya simply can’t ignore a threat of Russians ‘squeezing’ its flanks, and that it has to ‘re-direct’ lots of its artillery fire at such counterattacks. If it re-directs its artillery fire at Russian counterattacks, it is lessening the volume of fire it’s providing to units assaulting in southern direction. Moreover, there is no denial that some of dozens of ‘small’ Russian counterattacks, and attacks by FPV-drones (and these are ‘out in masses’, these days), have caused Ukrainian losses, too…

It is for similar reasons that the ZSU seems to have directed the 71^st Jäger towards east, where it is helping the 118^th Mech suppress the Russians north/north-west of Verbove (combination of the 22^nd Spetsnaz and the re-built 108^th VDV Regiment), along the Road H-08 in general direction of Pavlivske. This is necessary to enable the 82^nd Airborne to continue destroying the remnants of the 417^th Recce Battalion, 247^th VDV Regiment, and BARS-11 inside Verbove.

South-east of Novoprokopivka, the 47^th Mech continues pushing down the first anti-tank ditch, the 116^th down the second anti-tank ditch – both in south-western direction – and the latter is also about 50-100 metres short of the summit of Hill 166 (that’s why there are videos like this one, showing Ukrainian drones scouting Russian positions in front and/or behind the ‘Toblerone Line’ of dragoon teeth). The obvious aim is advancing into the hilly area between Solodka Balka, Pshenychne, and Nove. This effort is coming forward as slowly because of near-constant attacks by Russian FPV-drones; because the terrain is meanwhile heavily mined; because of repeated counterattacks by the VDV - and for the reasons mentioned above: because Ukrainian artillery is, time and again, ‘necessary elsewhere’.

The Russians are shooting back with artillery and Lancets, and - time and again - have managed to knock out one or another of Ukrainian artillery pieces. That said, all available info is that the barrages unleashed by the 44th and 148th Artillery remain ‘murderous’, ‘massive’, and ‘continuous’, and that they’re continuing to strike well into the Russian rear, smacking the Russian artillery, too. For example, few days ago, the 44^th Artillery (ZSU) and one Ukrainian drone units killed this Msta-B, south-east of Verbove.

Problem: the longer it takes the ZSU to punch through here, the more time the Russians have to deploy additional minefields and construct additional field fortifications…

….all in the name of the Pudding’s ‘Plan S’: the ‘strategy’ we can even see ‘becoming effective’ in the USA and Slovakia of these days. Read: ‘hold out at any cost, until they either run out of US/NATO-supplied ammo, or US/EU financial support’…