Now it's becoming ever more obvious that Tom Cooper is just a clean moron. Gosh, I used to be a part of the translation group who used to translate his texts into Ukrainian when the big war began. Now he's just a typical zradoyob.
Ты что себе позволяешь, Тони? Кто ты такой? Переводчик чужих мыслей? Так за тебя Гугл сделает перевод - я так и читаю Тома! Думаешь, что твоя работа была важна как переводчика? Нет, ты просто просрал своё время... И кто же идиот из вас?
Yeah. It's me to blame for Zele's failure to develop a coherent defence strategy of Ukraine.
It's me to blame for the Zele's abysmal failure to fortify the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the last four years.
It's me to blame for Zele refusing to pay Ukrainian companies to manufacture SAMs of their own design - while channeling money into Yermak/Mindich's corruption plots.
It's me to blame for Zele thinking that fighting a war is fighting an election campaign by the means of collecting likes in the social media.
It's me to blame for Zele failing to explain the West it needs to massively ramp-up its production of SAMs.
I'm an idiot. And a pesimist. And working for the FSB.
While you and everybody else in Ukraine avoiding reality is so super-clever, there are no words to describe.
You come here and do something. I'm not a primary school teacher to ask you grade-2 questions:
HOW do you fortify a fucking power plant?
HOW do you fortify a fucking heat plant?
How do you easily take down 500/600 drones a single volley?
Everything, every freaking piece of info that you're shitting is twisting around Zele. Dude, we know his faults way better than you can imagine. But in this specific case your takes are meme BS.
The agenda about refusing to pay UA companies for UA made SAMs is just another piece of Poroshenko-inflicted bullshit.
You're not working for FSB, you're just an idiot, of which there are many.
Sure. And, how more often shall I confirm your brilliant conclusion that I'm an idiot and you know better?
Aaaand: why are you still paying attention at the blog of an idiot? And (especially you still don't know the answers to your own questions, but know better, nevertheless): what does this say about you?
How adult of you anyway calling ppl idiots if they have some critique , and your arguments are some questions .. lost in dreams and tiktok memes , no adaptation ,no evolution for 4 years but if someone tells you the reality u call them idiots … this is the mentality that will get u under orcs boot … but its ok you will fit right in
I am sure Zelensky coming out and publicly begging Putin to stop the attacks on the energy sector and that he ran out of Patriots had no effect on the Russians doubling down and throwing what ever they got left on the energy infrastructure.
Zelensky was exposed for all too see , you care about a kleptocrat more than about the country he mismanaged into an absolutely unnecessary military and financial failure , seethe more , no one cares about Zelensky, only Ukraine as obvious from the title of the article
Tom, with all respect, to protect a power plant from Ballistic missile you have to build a concrete megastructure much bigger and thicker than Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant sarcophagus. It is possible but with the cost of billions and billions dollars for every plant and peace times - without hitting the constructure site. And it will likely not help eventually because of 10 hits in 1 place. And yes, you have seen the reports from October 2025 that the effectiveness of Patriot systems against Russian ballistic missiles has “fallen from 42% to 6%” recently because of the latest Russian modifications. You have seen these reports, right?
Well, I'm a declared, convinced and practicising idiot. That's meanwhile beyond any doubt.
....just that, somehow... well, the last I recall, have never come to the idea to discuss 'fortifying power plants', but have, in detail, discussed the failure of the Zele admin to fortify SUBSTATIONS against strikes by attack-UAVs.
Which... well, who can say, considering I'm such an obvious idiot... but, that itch in my fucking little toe is telling me that this might help lessen the burden of the PSU, through making it capable of focusing on the defence against ballistic- and cruise missiles, instead of wasting its scarce SAMs for the defence from Gerans (as 'documented' by kill-markings on containers with command posts of multiple of its PAC-systems, showing Gerans).
But, I'm an idiot, and a pesimist, and obsessed with blaming Zele & his Hero-Buddies... and that's all too technical and too complex to think about and explain. No fun in comparison to BS-itting around with ZSU killing so many Russian troops with single FPVs, but having no idea how to fight even at the operational level, not to talk about the strategy.
Thus, please, PLEASE: feel free to disregard.
The same is valid for my reporting about the significant decrease in precision of PACs, and the Ukrainian demands for more of SAMP and similar European stuff, too: it's my fault I've reported about this, not yours - or anybody else's - for not reading the report in question.
All because I'm an idiot. And because I've reported something, but you didn't read it.
Tom, the size of Kyiv 750kV substation is even bigger than CHP-5 powerplant. I just measured both with the ruler in Google Maps. You can recheck it by yourself. It is a huge object. And all these substations are open air because they are air-cooled by design so that's why I have seen photos of substations with sides protection only. Side protection is ineffective in case of direct hit but effective somehow in case of near hit. Really, I don't know how to make a complete concrete shell even for small substations. They are likely have to be redesigned and rebuild from scratch with different cooling systems. In peace time, obviously. Because a lot of these builders and energy industry workers who is fixing all these damage on these objects have been killed because of repeated attacks.
Ask your tenants ruzzians how they protected their refineries while ZZ with orc Syrk have forbidden to strike them last year and obviously continue the crime this year as well.
Just wire nets or meshes are enough for that. UAVs have no kinetic power, they explode on such light structures with no or light damage to the protected stuff.
Russia has not enough missiles to knock out all substations and power plants. But has enough long range UAVs to do it combines with the missiles.
Have you seen the size of the Geran? It carries a 90kg warhead and many are armed with cluster or thermal munitions. The Russians are sending FPVs 1000km. As Tom said they would use swarm tactics anyway. There really isn't a good method to protect energy infrastructure other than to put it underground.
bld, can you count how many bloody ballistic missiles hit? Not enough? OBviously kh32 are fucking hard to intercept. Try yourself, will you?
Tsirkons another pain in the arse, but we were both lucky and mindful on the approach. Now, the rest are obvisouly for the lack of interceptors. Stop skyglyty, get back to work.
Why does PSU waste the prescious interceptors on cheap Gerans or Shaheds as ruzz enemy wants (why do you play in their game of loosing a war?) instead of much more preferable and dangerous missles? The UAVs can be neutralized with much more cheaper alternatives like Gepards for example.
Where is military wise and logically correct really effective frontline AD intead of not working and useless object AD?
If everyones will stop "skyglyty" as you ask, there will be no Ukraine left after your such a "work"
bro, there were FEW cases when the intercepters were lost on shakheds, either because of wrong target designaton or as a measure of the last resort, maybe to protect actual pac launchers and/or radar sites. Go figure.
Maybe we do maybe we don't. Again, about gepards you think they are some kind of wunderwaffe available in 1000s with all personell and support equip? Watch that Tom's video he quoted. A gepard will give you a 1/2 sphere barely covering 2km in radius. Front fucking line is 800km. To have overlapping coverage would require at least 600 gepards. BUT THEN THINK about bloody logistics, etc. And then shakeds mostly operate in chain groups of 10-15. two gepards on their intercept will probably take out 4-6 max. Kapisch? We're trying diff apporach with x-wing tie fight interceptors. Stay put. Keep on working.
I don't understnad what is the problem to ask for Patriot. Of course it is better to use Tomahawk or Taurus. Zele also asks for them. The problem is that everyone having a cup of cappuccino in the morning and watching (this is not about you personally but in general). It requires unreal PR activities (which Zele performs constantly) to make this idea popular amont people that will lead to be popular between politics to give this weapon to hit destroy plant in Elabuga.
Problems with Patriots that they are not longer effective, their stockpile is seriously exhausted, and production cycle of 1 rocket is too slow. Very slow. And yes, almost all of the Tomahawks will be destroyed near Elabuga - Russians have very good AA there and Tomahawk is just an old cruise missile from 70s, not ballistic, not hypersonic.
I am from Ukraine, bro, living 4 years in this hell, so I have Gidazepam instead of cappuccino =) And I am giving you a crab. Elabuga hit with Aeropract airplane drones was 1 time event 2 years ago. Then pigdogs improved their AA significantly in this city. Since 2024 we have seen deep strikes on oil refineries and plants even in Chelyabinsk oblast. Much further then Elabuga. But no drone strikes on Elabuga anyway
The final assembly can be easily dispersed, which is apparently what was done, because now we can see attacks on factories that produce components for their production and even on ships transporting components from Iran
The number of simultaneous attacks by Shahids has long remained at the same level from 200 to 600, although they promised 1000...2000...3000 per day.
There's not a single figure, not a single fact, no statistics. It's all amateurish speculation. A steep trajectory implies a shorter launch range—any schoolchild who studied physics will tell you that. The number of hits has indeed increased, but the reasons are: 1. Ballistic missiles have become more widely used. 2. Ballistic missiles have become used in areas where Patriot missiles aren't available. 3. The last batch of Patriot missiles arrived a week later than planned because the EU didn't pay for them on time—Zelenskyy stated this directly in Davos.
There is no plan. US haș left the game it started. EU is poor in money and courage. You are alone. You can not run a revolution now and you can not win the war. Shit happens.
This what they want you to do, the army of paid trolls attacking you in comments. Ukrainians don't deserve this, you are very valuable asset for Ukraine in describing the war with such a barbaric asian aggressor
The Zelenskyi bashing is getting tiresome Tom, to me I find it distracts from the real meat of your analysis and reporting.
He's by no means perfect, but it seems to me that now you're just de-legitimizing and bashing Zelenskyi every chance you get, with no view as to the effect of doing so. It's near impossible in the eyes of the public in the 'West' to separate Zelenskyi and Ukraine, what hurts Zelenskyi also hurts Ukraine right now, wrong as that may be, it is what it is.
There is at long last a competent person in charge of defense, but he's not had time to effect any system-wide changes.
Zelenskyi's made plenty of mistakes, especially keeping Yermak around for so long, and like it or not, he's running a democratic state and must keep an eye on internal politics - which used to be Yermak's job. With Tymoshenko actively working to break up the majority in VK, with an eye on future elections (she and Poroshenko were both approached by Trump advisors eyeing a coup against Zelenskyi), he has to deal with that added dimension. He is not as omnipotent as some believe.
I think you know that we have Yermak's protection of Mindich to thank for substations not being fortified. Did Zelenskyi know about this, should he have known? We don't know, how much micro management can you do when running a country at war for six years without a break?
Was he naive in trusting Yermak? 100% yes.
The reason there are less Patriots and SAMs is due to the failings of the US and Europe, where this narrative of Zelenskyi and a fistful of dollars (as seen on your FB today) is being used to slow down support for Ukraine even further.
If you have intel on Ukrainian SAM manufacturers being starved or hindered please share that. I am personally unaware of any Ukrainian Patriot manufacturers.
What exactly are you expecting from Zelenskyi here? He can't magic up a bunch of SAM missiles, or money - which they were dangerously low on at the end of last year.
As to FIFA and IRGC
FIFA talks about letting Russia back in and you don't want any focus on that?
IRGC follows EU designation of them as a terrorist organization a few days ago, is it all possible these things are related?
1) In a few days the 5th year of this war will start. 2026 will be the year of the decision ond which side the 'dice' will land and it is now clear that it is reduced to the question which side will break first.
So many wasted opportunities and so little advance planning. It feels like a blind believer is leading a pilgrim through a minefield several kilometers deep.
2) The price of incompetence is paid by the common people with their blood, limbs and finally lives.
3) The idiots in Western government have a "breathing space" as long Ukraine still stands fighting, but the consequences afterwards will be als heavy and punishing in Europe.
4) In sum, it is a tragedy of ancient proportions that should never have happened.
5) For those, who understand this and have empathy it produces an avalanche of bitterness.
If only you knew how bad things really are , if Ukraine survival and unity was dependent on Zelensky the Russians would have taken him yesterday , but the Russians would love nothing more than Zelensky staying in power indefinitely, the damage he dealt to Ukraine is incalculable and he handed the them the war single handedly.
If you really doubt that Ukraine would survive or even thrive without the efforts of the Supreme leader please give me exactly what Zelensky did not Ukraine that no other could do ten times better?
You think Poroshenko or Tymoshenko could have done better? Yermak? Prytula?
Ukraine isn't dependent on any one person at this point, in 2022 maybe. Had Zelenskyi and his admin fled then things might have turned out differently, but they didn't, and the nation united behind them.
I'm sure someone like Biletskyy would be very effective as a wartime leader, probably much more effective on the battlefield, I'm equally sure I would not like what Ukraine might become under him.
If you read what I actually wrote, instead of superimposing your feelings onto it, I did not say Ukraine couldn't have done better, I did not say Zelenskyi is infallible, quite the opposite.
Zelenskyi is the elected leader of the country, end of story.
The russians have tried enough times to kill him, they stopped because after the initial months killing him would have created a martyr, preserving an idealized image of him the country could rally around, putin is not dumb, he knew the honeymoon would end. Now he can kill him, but only when a suitable gauleiter has been found to replace him.
Zelenskyi has to deal with the VK who are not always on his side, to put it mildly, with Tymoshenko who's advocating for breaking with Europe, he has to deal with the pro russians in OPZZh, with enemies in the US, and the EU, the moscow patriachate and what have you. This doesn't mean he's infallible, or couldn't do better, but he's one man balancing a wide range of interests during war. He also has to deal with the US and Europe effectively banning certain military actions that Ukraine really needs to take.
I recall Tom himself saying Syrskyi could be better than Zalushnyi at one point, which didn't turn out so well. Because Syrskyi is good at tactical planning, but terrible at systems and leadership. Zalushnyi was was good at delegation, and well read, but probably scared Yermak, so when the Zaporizhzhia offensive failed (due to US betrayal), he was blamed.
My point, if you cared to read what I wrote, is that just senselessly bashing Zelenskyi is not productive, and it detracts from real analysis. If Tom wants to bring a case against Zelenskyi, using real intelligence and facts, and not rumors, conjecture and name calling, I would welcome it. Blaming Zelenskyi for a lack of Patriot missiles is just silly.
Do you honestly think Europe and the US would have been so supportive if someone like Stefanchuck was in charge, or Boyko, or Medvedchuk? These politicians need a sympathetic and charismatic figure to latch on to, and to sell the spending of so much money to their populations. It's not pretty, but that is the way the world works. The sad state of affairs is that a lot of Europeans still don't understand the dangers of a russian victory. Every time someone spread the 'Zelenskyi is corrupt and doesn't care about his people' narrative, russia wins just a little bit.
So I ask for constructiveness, and 'waaah waah Zele bad' just doesn't cut it.
The entire narrative is built on the basis that because Zelensky did not flee the country because the entire Ukrainian nation did not flee and stopped the Russians in thier tracks now he gets to take credit for what the nation did, not him.
Perhaps had he fled may be other more competent and determined people could have taken his place , which might have been a better thing , I will elaborate on this later
No, again you are superimposing your feelings onto what I wrote, you should stop that. Don't misrepresent my words.
He should be credited for staying, and it did help in the early days when everyone was unsure of what would happen - this is psychology 101. If the leaders flee in the face of an invasion morale sinks.
If Zelenskyi had fled it would have damaged morale in a big way, and Stefanchuk would have become president - are you stating he's more competent? If he'd fled they would have elected a new Chairman - to become automatically Acting President, who would they have elected? They would have been gridlocked as everyone fought over power and payouts, the country would have been leaderless at the exact moment when leadership was needed. You can't deny that what Zelenskyi did in the first weeks and months was beneficial. And you seemingly forget the extremely successful defense of Kyiv, and the Kharkiv/Kherson offensives.
Or are you arguing there should have been a coup?
Who would be both more competent, and able to get support from the West?
No-one associated with OPZZh, Pravi Sektor, Azov, or Svoboda for sure - they were 100% toxic in the West at the time, Biletskyi and Azov have managed to rehabilitate themselves to some degree, but are still not 'savory' in the West.
Prytula doesn't have what it takes, neither does Tymoshenko or Poroshenko, you know this. So who then?
But for now clearly many people here did not fight a war as a decentralized people united by necessity and will to resist at all cost and so they think a corrupted bureaucracy like that of Putin's is the panacea to win all wars and be able to hold thier ground against a superior enemy.
Imagine a corrupt regime like ISI could survive a beheading of all military and perhaps political figureheads and still manage to survive and even stand its ground against the total might of the US and that without a Zelensky like figure at the helm.
Ukraine in 2026?
What are we going to without Zelensky tomorrow, imagine if we lost Zele in 2022 what could've happened.
Meanwhile in Iran and Gaza they replace leaders on a daily basis without giving up
I guess there is a lesson to be learned there somewhere
Unlike these other places you mention Ukraine is a democracy, it's not bound by extremist death cults like IS or Hamas. Iran hasn't changed leaders since Khomeini died in 1989..., and I guarantee that if you decapitate the Iranian leadership a very different country will emerge, sadly probably a ghastly civil war first. Iranians are not behind the IRGC or Khamenei.
I guarantee you that if some right wing military leader had seized control of the Ukrainian state in 2022 there would have been no support from the West, no Gepards, Leopards, 155mm ammo, no Patriots or SAMs, no F-16s. The West (who believed in the Kyiv in 3 days scenario) would have made some deal with putin and carried on. You can't escape political realities.
I notice you're not answering any of my questions, just throwing out non-sequiteurs and 'what ifs'.
First, I have really enjoyed your comments. In Ukraine TV's recent interview of Tom, Tom mentioned an anti-drone company who approach him about a $4,000 drone they wanted to sell to Ukraine. Tom called some contacts but they didn't return a message. So Tom can see no open procurement process in Ukraine for drones--just his limited experience.
I understand Ukraine's desire to do everything in house, to protect from Russian stalking horses, etc., nonetheless, I find it odd no one is in Ukraine to consider such things.
That's a political problem. That problem comes from the top. Who else is Tom supposed to blame? I'm not attacking you with that, literally, who should he address?
Thanks. I can't speak to this particular company and how they've approached the issue, nor Tom's contacts. I've met real life Ukrainian drone manufacturers who didn't have a problem getting government contracts.
If one wants to sell to the AFU one could start here
There are official channels, for foreign companies that can be through their own government programs, or embassies. There's the Come Back Alive foundation who are licensed for arms dealing. Or one could contact the Ministry of Defence directly.
My understanding is that they're trying to get away from the 'informal contacts' way of doing business.
He could lay this out in an orderly fashion and I would read with interest, it's the constant name calling and spending a third of an article on fuzzy personal attacks that I object to. I think it's counter productive, there are probably Ukrainians in leadership and AFU who read this Substack, and do they really want to work with someone who's constantly attacking leadership?
There is lots of work going on behind the scenes, especially in procurement, and lots of criticisms, anyone who follows Sternenko or Butusov will have noticed many angry posts about failures in procurement.
I do follow the Ministry of Defence, and I have seen various initiatives be mentioned from time to time, but it's not my interest so I haven't paid close attention.
Thanks. I can't speak for Tom, but for myself. I always have a list of around 50 stories I'm working on (and many more I just give up on). They all start with a spark of emotion. Then the emotion fades and I can't decide which story to finish. I'll work on one, then suffer from analysis leading to paralysis.
Only a renewed emotion gets me through.
It's also hard to engage readers if there's no emotion. I don't get a salary from some government agency to be methodical and unpolitical in my analysis.
Therefore, only emotions will power me to the finish line. Those emotions weaken what I want to say, but again, without emotions all I have is dry analysis. That's the bargain I make.
From the beginning I've felt like you do. That Tom is too judgmental of various people. I let it pass because I don't have another mechanism he could use to bridge the gap between one's cold analysis and emotional connection to others.
I assume you're right. That there are channels for drone makers to go through. It is best to have a transparent system like that. But for anyone looking for a job, in general, the reality is most deals are done outside that system.
If Tom's reputation doesn't give him any weight in that system I think that means something, don't you?
Why would constant attacks and allegations of corruption and incompetence over a four year period give Tom weight in AFU leadership?
I don't mind emotion, but there are limits.
He's blaming the Zelenskyi for the US not delivering Patriot missiles, as if Zelenskyi could affect that in any way. It's just unnecessary, I've seen it for the last couple of years and I'm just tired of it.
There is an old saying, you catch more bees with honey than with vinegar.
I find Ukrainians to be quite a bit like Norwegians in some sense, altho we've been tamed by prosperity and peace of late, I can tell you that attacks like this wouldn't endear him to anyone in Norway, on the contrary, it's a turn off.
This is why I finally decided to speak up, because name calling and the constant corruption accusations is going to close ears - not open them.
Where did Tom ever blame Zelenskyi for the US not delivering Patriot missiles? My memory is, if anything, Tom wrote Zelensky is naive to believe they'll definitely come (which has become true)?
Maybe the fact that Tom has not exactly been wrong about the progression of War in the past 4 years might give him some weight in the AFU leadership? What you're basically implying is the AFU is of one mind and it doesn't accept criticism. If that's the case, the shouldn't we all pack it in?
I can't stand Scott Ritter. Can't stand him! But he too--I hate to say--was right in the beginning that everyone who underestimated Russia were doing Ukraine no favors.
To suggest the AFU is monolithic, a system of patronage, that Tom shouldn't ever expect to communicate with is a bit mind-blowing to me.
"A man is only as big as the things that make him mad". It the AFU is mad at Tom I don't know what to say ;)
"because, precisely as assessed several times the last year, Zele’s fighting the war by winning likes in the social media is no strategy at all. It’s neither serving the purpose of protecting the Ukrainian energy production, nor the supply of energy to factories manufacturing arms and ammunition. Just like deliveries of additional SAMP-Ts and Patriots are no replacements for missiles necessary to make these work and defend Ukraine: because even 150 Patriot systems would be entirely useless if they have no missiles to fire. "
Here he ties together social media strategy and patriot deliveries in one point.
I don't claim to speak for anyone but myself, don't change my words to mean something I'm clearly not saying.
I never suggested AFU was monolithic, tho it has become more so under Syrskyi, nor a patronage system (tho that's what Tom's been saying for years, specifically about Syrskyi and company).
I'm not suggesting they're mad at him, or even aware of him at the top level. What I'm suggesting is that the form may lead to people ignoring him, or reading the first few paragraphs and deciding 'this is bullshit'. I'm suggesting that it may very well be possible that they didn't pick up the phone because they're tired of it. Tom isn't in the AFU leadership, is not a Ukrainian, and I don't see why there should be an expectation of a direct line to AFU procurements? Exactly the kind of direct line corruption he's railing against?
Thinking foreigners should have, or deserve, weight in the AFU leadership because 'they know best', is a bit of a stretch.
I've always found that insulting people rarely gets results, but maybe that works in Tom's world.
It is precisely because Tom has valuable insights that I want to see less of the personal attacks, less hyperbole, because I do want him to be read and heard by the right people.
I am 110% with you on this which is why I did try to push back on some of the stuff Tom wrote when I first subscribed. I 100% agree with your comments. He and others aren't addressed when they speak calmly. They're vilified when they speak emotionally.
I'll argue that only outsiders have the freedom to pound the table. Insiders can't because all organizations reject criticism. Again, not the solution I want. I go back and forth.
Typically, all you wiseacres that 'know' I'm offering 'nothing constructive', and only memorise 'name-calling' etc. - have failed to read every single article specifically listing what Ukraine needs.
...and I grew tired of searching them for you. Here's the site map:
I'm not new here Tom, as you should know I've been reading your posts for years, I have found your analyses interesting and valuable, I never said you offered nothing constructive - on the contrary.
What I'm saying is that the constant attacks on Zelenskyi, the constant claims of corruption, of leading a 'gang' and all the rest - distract from your analysis, and I believe it hurts Ukraine, it feeds nihilism and apathy.
To the point that for me I've tired of parsing through a page of name calling to get to the meat of the analysis.
You are correct a political problem, in the sense as elected President of Ukraine, Zelenskyi is in charge PLUS his advisers/ministers.
Constructive criticism is always good for pluralism/real democracy governance, the only way to LOOK for solutions, efficient systems, etc with fact based/real information not PR information.
1. "Collecting likes" is something every government has done since the advent of mass media, and especially during the war. The governments of NATO are doing the same.
2. I see a lot of criticism of Zele and NATO, and that's normal. But I don't see any proposals for how to fix this. In particular, how to protect distribution substations, which have a huge area
in simple words: "we are cooked", there's nothing else left to do but to just sit and watch the ship sinking. I've been reading this substack for a while and there were plenty of proposals on how to fix things(literally the most simple thing to do is to fire Syrskyi). None of those things were done. I'm not trying to doom but again I repeat WE ARE COOKED.
Zelensky is not interested in winning the war, he doesn't care. The only thing he cares about is getting re-elected and his whole decision making is based on that. There's no point in looking at this situation from the perspective of "what can Zelensky do", the correct question was "what should've Zelensky done?". His decision making throughout the war has led us to this exact point, where Ukraine is losing the war. Poor Zelensky though, he's so tired and needs a rest, surely he'll step down after the war ends.... oh wait
this whole thing gets tiring to repeat, because this trajectory of the war was predicted here many months ago and the same thing is being stated over and over again to readers that are in denial about the situation. and the said thing is that apparently to western readers here the victims and people deserving sympathy is someone like Zelensky and not Ukrainian people that are suffering.
The decisions of a single commander were effective in ancient times, when several thousand men converged on the field, and one mistake led to defeat, while an unconventional move led to victory. But by the Middle Ages, this no longer worked, with the advent of military science. Since then, resources have played a decisive role. With strategy and tactics, only savages could be defeated with small forces. In the 20th century, however, not only resources but also advanced science and technology became decisive.
Ukrainians count thier blessings because Putin and his military leadership were so incompetent in 2022 they through thier resources to a buttomless pit and fumbled a done deal because they did not have a long term plan , they are still incompetent but they learned.
Meanwhile Putin's generals are counting thier blessings from 2023 till 2026 because Zelensky literally grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory.
If you want to win battles study tactics and military art, if you want to win wars study strategy and logistics
Amount of resources is only useful when applied correctly, no amount of resources will solve a problem if not spent on the right solution and If the commander in chief decided to waste the military and financial resources aimlessly , no amount of these will bring victory , case and point look at the Russians
You do know that it was the US that forbade Zalushnyi to keep the Kherson offensive going into Zaporizhzhia? That forbade him from attacking Surovikin's 40K retreating troops, that delayed deliveries in the spring of '23, that forced the AFU to adopt a strategy for the Zaporizhzhia offensive that could not work - because the US gave Surovikin 9 months to prepare defenses, with the 40K troops they allowed him to withdraw unharmed from Kherson?
That the Kharkiv offensive stalled in part because Starlink were delaying activation in newly freed territories?
Jake Sullivan bears a larger responsibility for Ukrainian casualties than anyone apart from putin himself.
There have been errors, in long term thinking, in dealing with corruption (for example non-existant or poor defenses presented as strong defenses, or the issue of protecting substations), but to lay the current situation at Zelenskyi's feet is dishonest in the extreme.
You have missed mate, ..Ukrainian people that are suffering from zelensky, his boss pudding and his team of looters traitors who are seized the power in UA
Zelensky is interested in winning the war, otherwise he will be president in exile (in the best personal case).
He is just absolutely clueless how to do it. He does what he knows and that is PR show. He delegated to the wrong people and now the consequences of wrong decisions show up.
Could not have said it better, I knew it was over since the first day of the counter offensive in 2023 , just looking at the composition of the forces , the schwerpunkt and axis of attacks I knew it was over because I did not someone get hanged for that and many others facing the firing squad, now after all the strategic plunders were made many years ago we still have people now in anno domini 2026 wondering what went wrong
Typically, all you wiseacres that 'know' I'm offering 'nothing constructive' - have failed to read every single article specifically listing what Ukraine needs.
Error. I started reading your blog in April 2022. I don't recall your proposals for protecting the power grid. No air defense system can protect gigantic thermal power plants and distribution fields from massive ballistic missile attacks. The only solution is distributed generation. As an energy engineer, I follow this topic closely and I assure you, the Ukrainians are working on this issue. Several companies produce systems of varying capacities for different fuel types, including piston and gas turbine systems. Much similar equipment comes from Europe. Naturally, replacing the system will take years and billions of dollars. Incidentally, it was precisely the large number of small private boiler houses, thermal power plants, and water supply systems that saved Germany and England from complete blackouts during the all-out bombing.
Search up my tag in your inbox and stats, I mean, how can I even comment here without paying your subscription? Gaslighting me because you don't like criticism is a bit far isn't it? I can post screenshots if you prefer?
No amount of AA's will suffice to protect any kind of static target in the long term, even if Zele along with whole Rada shat with concrete slabs 24/7 since 2022.
The only thing that would really help is demolishing Russian military factories and more strict sanctions, embargo preferably. Neither is achievable by Ukraine alone. Of all people here you should know it better than anyone, Mr. Cooper.
Russia is European problem, but somehow Europe is still is too busy sucking Kremlin's oil and sniffing its natural gas, not to mention other rare-earth resources.
As a native russian-speaking inhabitant of Crimea who was forcefully occupied in 2014 among many others: you are weak, timid and docile, Europe. Will you ever wake up?
Because that wouldn't work. Gepard is from the 70's of last century and was built to protect mechanized columns during the march.
Skynet is modern last ditch protection (i.e. SHORT range) and useless against ballistic missiles.
SAMP-T and it's next version (currently under developement) are very useful, but the number of available missiles is just a drop of water on a very hot stone.
Quality has to be in needed numbers otherwise it's impact is negligible.
Addendum:
Basically the Russian AD has the same problem, but on a very much different scale.
I seem to recall having had some arguments with Oskar in the past, but paid troll he's not.
You can't stop ballistic missiles with Gepards.
Cruise missiles, yes, a few have been shot down.
Shahed/Geran - yes, many have been shot down.
Ballistic missiles - need Patriot or similar, and they're missing more and more.
As Oskar says, you need quantity, it takes 12-18 months to produce 1 (one)! Patriot missile, and the US hasn't ramped up production nearly enough. One of the reasons for that is that newer systems are here/coming, and they didn't want the sunk cost of obsolete Patriot missile production lines.
All the Patriots are going to the middle east to form a missile shield around Israel , even Zelensky support protecting Israel against the Iranian missiles , I do not know if he would perfer intercepting Iranian missiles over Russian missiles but seems he is more interested in supporting a war on Iran than winning the war his country is currently fighting
A religious fanatic tries to ignore reality and resorts to the age-old method of sophistry through defamation (also known as ad hominem) as a substitute for arguments.
Maybe even better. Gepards are very effective costwise as well SAMs against cruise mozcovian missiles and UAVs which used to hit Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukraine has received over 130pcs of them in total, but they surprisingly are not used at all currently to protect critical infrastructure by order of puppet kremlin government in Ukraine most likely
Are you trying to say you loose them daily or what? Why stupidly high expectatons? Isn't +100 Gepards enough to protect critical infrastructure even as object AD as you or your masters prefer?
Actually, he (Tom), needs your help, not because he can't do it himself, but because in my perception his plate is already overflowing and could use the assistance. **LOL**
Assuming that destroying Russian weapons production (facilities) is not yet possible to a substantial degree or to the necessarily large scale, what would it take at least to kill the archers instead of predominantly killing the arrows? ... or at least killing the airborne archers, e.g., Tu-22, Tu-160, Mig-31, Su-34, Su-35 and the like?
Ukraine simply can't do that, because the only way everything there - including the armed forces - works, is through oligarchy and thus corruption.
Correspondingly: nobody is going to come to the idea to develop the necessary reconnaissance-strike complex. Only to bribe commanders to buy selected weapons from selected companies and then strike targets of oligarchic preference.
And, well: VKS' airbases are of nobody's interest.
Therefore, 6-7 different Ukrainian agencies are, on order from 6-7 different gangs of oligarchy, striking 6-7 different types of targets.
...as and when they find the means to do so, and some of these 6-7 different gangs of oligarchy orders them to do so.
So instead to fix the problem with russians we should change the president to someone unknown (how?), who will be better (why?), oligarchs disappear (why?), we build own Tomahawk in 1 month (why?), etc.
You sounds like populist, no difference with Zele.
Maybe it is beter to build what works, scale Madyar, scale Khartia (where Butusov), build distributed heating system etc
I wonder where you read about oligarchs? What exactly works through oligarchs? Whom you think are oligarchs? Do you really think that commanders take bribes to order certain weapons? Which commanders?
It looks like you write a lot but without the facts.
Sigh... OK, then we're back to this: You can't fix that issue without fixing your incompetent and corrupt leadership - first. That's like if trying to heal a fever by cutting off the leg.
Of course, you can try. Just see where is that bringing you. 🙄
You wrote a lot about Zelensky’s responsibility, but very little about those who approved this strike when it was −28 degrees outside.
And yes, I agree: it is better to drink a cappuccino in the morning than to leave a метро station after spending the whole night there.
I would also note that even Rutte’s visit did not protect Ukrainians from shelling, and, of course, the West reacted calmly to yet another strike — as if it were something routine.
Call me a simpleton, but I don't understand how one country can start destroying another country's cash cow and then be surprised when that other country blows up their power plants and trains?
Tom never argued that Ukraine should try to make the economic costs for Russia so high that Russia would withdraw. Not once I can remember (Please correct me). Instead, he argued that Ukraine had to protect the front line to the point that Russia just gave up, because that's an economic and political cost too.
Anyway, Ukraine took the economic attritional approach (attack interior of Russia) and Tom has simply pointed out that Ukraine has done very well in making those moves, but seems to have not prepared for Russia's counter-moves which again, call me simpleton, anyone could predict?
Who would've thought that getting into a war of attrition against a bigger country with much much more population and resources means the smaller country would run out of resources first?
Certainly not Zelensky, its not like it is in the name "attrition" literally meaning constant loss of resources to bleed the enemy dry.
Ukraine can only win if they can mount a series of operations that can cumble the front line and cause dramatic losses to convince the Russians of the futility of continuing the at the current rhythm and scope and make thier disposition untenable like they did in Kharkiv, Kherson and Northern Ukraine
There was a perfect window to this , Zelensky willingly wasted it and preferred to considerate the power of his party over the military and country instead and we all can see the results of that, his fans can say what they will and blame the US and the West all they want .
I think the war of attrition idea started with the Biden administration. The sanctions were going to make it so that the Russian military and/or economy would collapse in 6 months. It seems Zelensky is continuing with this strategy. It should have been obvious quite a while ago, even back when Biden was still president, that it wasn't working.
Sadly in the best case scenario Zelensky is a military illiterate just like Putin.
I knew instantly since early 2023 that someone wanted this conflict to turn into another Iran-Iraq war that would exhaust both nations without a clear victor.
And if I can see this (I am less intelligent than most people) very clearly even back then , other much more intelligent and infinitely much more informed and advised people can see it too.
And if these peolpe are working toward an outcome they know full well that it will not end well then it safe to assume those in high command both in Ukraine and the US are insincere and does not hold the best interest of the common people at heart (which is a given anyway)
There is no way that all those people who lead multi-billion organizations are all idiots and morons who throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks.
Empires are not maintained that way , someone want this outcome , someone put effort and resources to reach this outcome.
It was not lets try this strategy and see what happens , thats like Saddam's modus operandi , and we know how all that ended
Well, in the US there are 2 different administrations, Biden and Trump, with completely different goals. Trump is crazy and prefers Putin but doesn't want to be too obvious about it. So lets talk about Biden. And Biden is largely the reason we find ourselves in the current situation.
Biden is no titan of industry or even very smart. He is a very friendly and somewhat charismatic guy who got elected in a small state that tends to reelect incumbents. He was in the US Senate for 36 years, never being seriously challenged. He only left to become Vice President under Obama. (Obama needed someone who would help him with the male white vote.) In the US the Vice President has almost nothing to do. It's boring job that LBJ hated. Biden seemed to love it. I don't think I'd ever seen someone so happy to be Vice President. He had run for President decades before but had very little success. He wanted to run for President after Obama but was talked into standing down to let Hilary get the nomination.
In 2020 he won the Democratic nomination for President. I think this is more due to the weakness of the Democratic Party than the strength of Biden. He wasn't a very good candidate but Trump was such a disaster that he eked out a win.
Now as President he seemed to imagine himself a foreign policy genius. He never grasped the threat that Russia posed to the US. Russia interfered in the 2016 US election and continued to support pre-Russia politicians and parties thoughout the world. Biden apparently saw the Russian invasion as something of a local border issue. Maybe he did imagine that it could be drawn out to weaken Russia. At any rate he never realized that this was only one theater in a Russian campaign against US, NATO, and the West. By fully supporting Ukraine he could have ended Russian aspirations. Instead he put restraints on what Ukraine could do to defend itself. He exagerated how much financial support he was giving Ukraine, I guess thinking it would make him look good. Instead it caused a backlash against Ukraine as people thought why are we sending money to this far away country that we don't care about? Biden never articulated why we were supporting Ukraine or explained coherent goals and how we were going to attain them.
It could appear they were trying to draw out the conflict to weaken both sides. More likely it was just shear incompetence. Biden and his administration couldn't imagine that they would lose reelection. They couldn't imagine that they wouldn't have another 4 years (at least) to work on their slow support strategy. They set up the situation where Zelensky felt he had to constantly impress supporting countries with Ukraine's successes in order to get weapons and ammunition.
I pretty much concluded this outcome since the first month of the invasion , i did not need a crystal ball because the US foreign policies are mostly filter through Israeli lenses no matter who is the incumbent President.
A total Ukrainian victory , an especially one that is does not include the total ruination of the country is a doomsday scenario, any prospect that includes regime change in Russia or total defeat is out of question, Russia is needed to keep both Europe and China under the sword of Damocles , any shift of power would unbalance the global scales which would dangerously threaten the post wwii world order , a big nar nar bo bo.
But a total Russian victory is also a not preferable outcome , remember that the Golem of Prague ultimately turned on its makers after it fulfilled it function and had nothing else to do and had to be put down.
So the total exhaustion of both countries in the style of the Iran-Iraq war was the perfect outcome , constantly balance the scales by giving one side a boost everytime the otherside gains the upper hand until both countries where completely drained financially and socially.
Every intelligence service and political figure knew Putin's intentions toward Belarusia ,Ukraine and Europe in general and everyone knew in advance that Europe buying cheap gas from Russia would only fuel thier military machine and future war yet they did it intentionally.
We can attribute that to incompetence, but if starting counting the amount of honest mistakes attributed to simple incompetence in the last 30 years we will reach only one of two logical conclusions, ether every politician, planner , military leader and think tank and decision maker in the first world was a complete drooling moron , and thats every last one of them which no way to maintaining a planet spanning empire , or we must assume some of them had an inkling of things to come and they were ok with it , and thats the actual policy that maintained the empire.
Make no mistake , all the time the Ukraine war was raging the Russian troops in Syria ,Sudan and Libya are coordinating and coopersting with the US and Israel in an extremely cordial manner even when Russian troops are getting pummeled by American bombs , because Putin knows full well it could get worse , way way worse , so he is counting his blessings and performs his role in the game.
After October 7th it was game over , Israel could not tolerate even the prospect of Ukraine ending the war in a stalemate , all the high end weapons were shifted toward Israel , the Biden administration would be succeeded with a new Technocracy full of hardliners and the entire foreign and domestic policies of the US would be changed dramatically.
Russia is needed to complete the ring around China and keep the Euros in check , and need to end this war on face saving manner , an ignominious defeat (i.e. peace on Ukrainian terms) would shatter the Russian psyche and put the entire Putin regime in jeopardy and thus future prospects of using Russia as a cats paw.
As for Zelensky he did not need to impress anybody , the Ukrainians already did that for him , everybody saw how stopped the entire invasion in its tracks with minimal foreign support, Ukraine was a solid investment to dismantle the entire Russian military machine for practically peanuts.
Now enter Zelensky, whose job is actually to prevent such an outcome , dismissed all the competent ones and replaced with the worst types and made sure all efforts and sacrifices go in vain siphoning the monetary aid , wasting the military resources needlessly in the most incompetent manner and making everybody who can fight flee the country in record time for a peak where the Ukrainian military could not even find weapons and gear to equipp the influx of volunteers.
The result was breaking the trust with everyone inside and outside Ukraine and ofcourse he had to cover his failures and perhaps self sabotage by lying blatantly to sell his supposed achievements.
The argument that the West would never had supported any other leader other than Zelensky is correct but for the wrong reasons , any other leader would have a very good use of the foreign aid and would've never squandered it , ergo ofcourse he would never get the same support.
Same goes for Putin , any other Russian leader would have used the gas revenues to make Russia super power instead of squandering it invading neighbors, therefore no other Russian leader would get such sweetheart economic deal except for Putin , because that is the actual purpose of the deal.
The question for me then is what Clausewitz called the Center of Gravity of your enemy. Does Russia have a C of G in this lousy war? If so, then what is Russia's C of G in relation to Ukraine? Does Ukraine have the capability to attack it or is it too late for Ukraine to do so? In my perception Russia's C of G could be political as much as military when it comes to a military's primary wartime function: to break things & kill people.
Their C of G has to be oil & gas. But, why has the EU taken so long to stop buying, why have the Turks been exeempted from aiding Poutine? Why is the US still buying Uranium, and selling comms equipment to them? Is no one other than the Kremlin serious about this war?
But hold.on, if UA hadn't done what they did, would RU then have spent its drones/ballstic missiles on frontline (or at least military) targets instead of powerplants and trains? I find that hard to believe, maybe I misunderstood?
Bro, common, ruzzia started pounded on Ukraine's electricity generation back in October 22 , 2022 (twenty bloody two). Restore your memory banks, will you? That's when first blackouts started occuring.
Now, about your bloody "power plants and trains" tirade. Bro, these are THERMAL fucking plants that generate HEAT and push hot water via centralised heating system.
In the fall of '22 Jake Sullivan specifically ordered the AFU to stop in Kherson, this is common knowledge now. The starling issues in Kharkiv were also widely disseminated at the time.
Seeing that the US just shot down a Shahed-129 observing their carrier group, it looks like we are very shortly going to find ourselves in a situation where Zelenskiy won't be getting a single PAC-3 interceptor to replenish his stockpiles: free-fire for the Russians on the capital. Meanwhile the President of Social Media has been Tweeting in Persian wishing revenge upon Iran for all the Shaheds that have struck Ukraine. But of course: as readers here know by now, he doesn't have the slightest interest in understanding Ukraine's strategic position, and besides, to the extent that he has any clue what he's doing whatsoever, that's currying favour with the Epstein network/Trump administration which naturally means indulging his affinity for Israel.
Now it's becoming ever more obvious that Tom Cooper is just a clean moron. Gosh, I used to be a part of the translation group who used to translate his texts into Ukrainian when the big war began. Now he's just a typical zradoyob.
Moron? That's not strong enough. I'm a super-idiot.
...because I've got no penchant for avoiding unpleasant facts.
Finally something adequate coming from Tom Cooper
Ты что себе позволяешь, Тони? Кто ты такой? Переводчик чужих мыслей? Так за тебя Гугл сделает перевод - я так и читаю Тома! Думаешь, что твоя работа была важна как переводчика? Нет, ты просто просрал своё время... И кто же идиот из вас?
Times when I was commenting "you should pick less biased sources in Ukraine, Tom" are long gone. Freaking idiot.
Yeah. It's me to blame for Zele's failure to develop a coherent defence strategy of Ukraine.
It's me to blame for the Zele's abysmal failure to fortify the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the last four years.
It's me to blame for Zele refusing to pay Ukrainian companies to manufacture SAMs of their own design - while channeling money into Yermak/Mindich's corruption plots.
It's me to blame for Zele thinking that fighting a war is fighting an election campaign by the means of collecting likes in the social media.
It's me to blame for Zele failing to explain the West it needs to massively ramp-up its production of SAMs.
I'm an idiot. And a pesimist. And working for the FSB.
While you and everybody else in Ukraine avoiding reality is so super-clever, there are no words to describe.
You come here and do something. I'm not a primary school teacher to ask you grade-2 questions:
HOW do you fortify a fucking power plant?
HOW do you fortify a fucking heat plant?
How do you easily take down 500/600 drones a single volley?
Everything, every freaking piece of info that you're shitting is twisting around Zele. Dude, we know his faults way better than you can imagine. But in this specific case your takes are meme BS.
The agenda about refusing to pay UA companies for UA made SAMs is just another piece of Poroshenko-inflicted bullshit.
You're not working for FSB, you're just an idiot, of which there are many.
Sure. And, how more often shall I confirm your brilliant conclusion that I'm an idiot and you know better?
Aaaand: why are you still paying attention at the blog of an idiot? And (especially you still don't know the answers to your own questions, but know better, nevertheless): what does this say about you?
How adult of you anyway calling ppl idiots if they have some critique , and your arguments are some questions .. lost in dreams and tiktok memes , no adaptation ,no evolution for 4 years but if someone tells you the reality u call them idiots … this is the mentality that will get u under orcs boot … but its ok you will fit right in
I am sure Zelensky coming out and publicly begging Putin to stop the attacks on the energy sector and that he ran out of Patriots had no effect on the Russians doubling down and throwing what ever they got left on the energy infrastructure.
Zelensky was exposed for all too see , you care about a kleptocrat more than about the country he mismanaged into an absolutely unnecessary military and financial failure , seethe more , no one cares about Zelensky, only Ukraine as obvious from the title of the article
Fan base. Dude, you're so cool, come to Ukraine, see how we're dying from cold. Botshit
Tom, with all respect, to protect a power plant from Ballistic missile you have to build a concrete megastructure much bigger and thicker than Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant sarcophagus. It is possible but with the cost of billions and billions dollars for every plant and peace times - without hitting the constructure site. And it will likely not help eventually because of 10 hits in 1 place. And yes, you have seen the reports from October 2025 that the effectiveness of Patriot systems against Russian ballistic missiles has “fallen from 42% to 6%” recently because of the latest Russian modifications. You have seen these reports, right?
Well, I'm a declared, convinced and practicising idiot. That's meanwhile beyond any doubt.
....just that, somehow... well, the last I recall, have never come to the idea to discuss 'fortifying power plants', but have, in detail, discussed the failure of the Zele admin to fortify SUBSTATIONS against strikes by attack-UAVs.
Which... well, who can say, considering I'm such an obvious idiot... but, that itch in my fucking little toe is telling me that this might help lessen the burden of the PSU, through making it capable of focusing on the defence against ballistic- and cruise missiles, instead of wasting its scarce SAMs for the defence from Gerans (as 'documented' by kill-markings on containers with command posts of multiple of its PAC-systems, showing Gerans).
But, I'm an idiot, and a pesimist, and obsessed with blaming Zele & his Hero-Buddies... and that's all too technical and too complex to think about and explain. No fun in comparison to BS-itting around with ZSU killing so many Russian troops with single FPVs, but having no idea how to fight even at the operational level, not to talk about the strategy.
Thus, please, PLEASE: feel free to disregard.
The same is valid for my reporting about the significant decrease in precision of PACs, and the Ukrainian demands for more of SAMP and similar European stuff, too: it's my fault I've reported about this, not yours - or anybody else's - for not reading the report in question.
All because I'm an idiot. And because I've reported something, but you didn't read it.
Avoid me. PLEASE.
Tom, the size of Kyiv 750kV substation is even bigger than CHP-5 powerplant. I just measured both with the ruler in Google Maps. You can recheck it by yourself. It is a huge object. And all these substations are open air because they are air-cooled by design so that's why I have seen photos of substations with sides protection only. Side protection is ineffective in case of direct hit but effective somehow in case of near hit. Really, I don't know how to make a complete concrete shell even for small substations. They are likely have to be redesigned and rebuild from scratch with different cooling systems. In peace time, obviously. Because a lot of these builders and energy industry workers who is fixing all these damage on these objects have been killed because of repeated attacks.
Ask your tenants ruzzians how they protected their refineries while ZZ with orc Syrk have forbidden to strike them last year and obviously continue the crime this year as well.
Man, read that again:
> against strikes by attack-UAVs
Just wire nets or meshes are enough for that. UAVs have no kinetic power, they explode on such light structures with no or light damage to the protected stuff.
Russia has not enough missiles to knock out all substations and power plants. But has enough long range UAVs to do it combines with the missiles.
Have you seen the size of the Geran? It carries a 90kg warhead and many are armed with cluster or thermal munitions. The Russians are sending FPVs 1000km. As Tom said they would use swarm tactics anyway. There really isn't a good method to protect energy infrastructure other than to put it underground.
The photograph of the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant that you used in your post was taken two years ago, on April 11, 2024.
Thx. I'll remove it.
On the night of 03.02.26, according to the Air Force report, the Defense Forces destroyed from the number of launched weapons:
⚠️ 412/450 strike and imitation UAVs were shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare.
The enemy used:
(300×) UAVs of the Geran-2 / Shahed-136 type;
(150×) UAVs of the Gerbera / Italmas type and UAVs of other types.
❗️ 4/4 hypersonic cruise missiles 3M22 "Tsirkon";
☄ 11/32 ballistic missiles 9M723 OTRK "Iskander-M" / ballistic anti-aircraft guided missiles 5V55 / 48N6DM (S-300 / S-400);
❗️ 3/7 Kh-22 / Kh-32 cruise missiles;
❗️ 20/28 Kh-101 / 9M727/729 Iskander-K cruise missiles;
In total, 92% of UAVs were neutralized.
In total, 38/71 missile weapons were neutralized, 54% of those launched.
Yup. As said above: now everything's perfectly fine in Zele's La-La-Land...
Then why so many enemy's cruise missles hit the targets?
La-la-land?
bld, can you count how many bloody ballistic missiles hit? Not enough? OBviously kh32 are fucking hard to intercept. Try yourself, will you?
Tsirkons another pain in the arse, but we were both lucky and mindful on the approach. Now, the rest are obvisouly for the lack of interceptors. Stop skyglyty, get back to work.
"lack of interceptors"? LOL.
Why does PSU waste the prescious interceptors on cheap Gerans or Shaheds as ruzz enemy wants (why do you play in their game of loosing a war?) instead of much more preferable and dangerous missles? The UAVs can be neutralized with much more cheaper alternatives like Gepards for example.
Where is military wise and logically correct really effective frontline AD intead of not working and useless object AD?
If everyones will stop "skyglyty" as you ask, there will be no Ukraine left after your such a "work"
bro, there were FEW cases when the intercepters were lost on shakheds, either because of wrong target designaton or as a measure of the last resort, maybe to protect actual pac launchers and/or radar sites. Go figure.
Logical question, why do ruzz aware about your pac launchers and/or radar sites? Why don't you move them after every case of use?
Where are Gepards? Why don't they being used? Frontline AD?
Maybe we do maybe we don't. Again, about gepards you think they are some kind of wunderwaffe available in 1000s with all personell and support equip? Watch that Tom's video he quoted. A gepard will give you a 1/2 sphere barely covering 2km in radius. Front fucking line is 800km. To have overlapping coverage would require at least 600 gepards. BUT THEN THINK about bloody logistics, etc. And then shakeds mostly operate in chain groups of 10-15. two gepards on their intercept will probably take out 4-6 max. Kapisch? We're trying diff apporach with x-wing tie fight interceptors. Stay put. Keep on working.
The information seems to vary a bit.
I don't understnad what is the problem to ask for Patriot. Of course it is better to use Tomahawk or Taurus. Zele also asks for them. The problem is that everyone having a cup of cappuccino in the morning and watching (this is not about you personally but in general). It requires unreal PR activities (which Zele performs constantly) to make this idea popular amont people that will lead to be popular between politics to give this weapon to hit destroy plant in Elabuga.
Problems with Patriots that they are not longer effective, their stockpile is seriously exhausted, and production cycle of 1 rocket is too slow. Very slow. And yes, almost all of the Tomahawks will be destroyed near Elabuga - Russians have very good AA there and Tomahawk is just an old cruise missile from 70s, not ballistic, not hypersonic.
Ok I see, then just having a cup of cappuccino in the morning and watching. Thanks for a great advice and help.
By the way, have you ever seen this https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68712158
=))) very good AA there
I am from Ukraine, bro, living 4 years in this hell, so I have Gidazepam instead of cappuccino =) And I am giving you a crab. Elabuga hit with Aeropract airplane drones was 1 time event 2 years ago. Then pigdogs improved their AA significantly in this city. Since 2024 we have seen deep strikes on oil refineries and plants even in Chelyabinsk oblast. Much further then Elabuga. But no drone strikes on Elabuga anyway
No problem Gidazepam and cappuccino works better =)
The final assembly can be easily dispersed, which is apparently what was done, because now we can see attacks on factories that produce components for their production and even on ships transporting components from Iran
The number of simultaneous attacks by Shahids has long remained at the same level from 200 to 600, although they promised 1000...2000...3000 per day.
Where are the statistics on the Patriot's effectiveness?
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/what-happened-to-ukraines-ballistic
There's not a single figure, not a single fact, no statistics. It's all amateurish speculation. A steep trajectory implies a shorter launch range—any schoolchild who studied physics will tell you that. The number of hits has indeed increased, but the reasons are: 1. Ballistic missiles have become more widely used. 2. Ballistic missiles have become used in areas where Patriot missiles aren't available. 3. The last batch of Patriot missiles arrived a week later than planned because the EU didn't pay for them on time—Zelenskyy stated this directly in Davos.
This. All this talk about "ineffectivness" come from people who look at the aggregates, not understanding positons and converage areas.
Dear heaven... this is really hopeless...
You're not alone, but: 'together', today you and plenty of other Ukrainians have managed to convince me that your country is a hopeless case.
Simply a waste of time. I'm giving up.
I convince you =). We are 30 millions country with 30 millions opinions on any entity, issue. So don't judge on me, as voice of all.
I don't undrsnand the goal to critisice Zele from Austria. Everyone in Ukraine around me understand that he is a populist. So what? What is the plan?
Is it better to infuence the people that reads you to demand the government to send weapone to stop russians?
There is no plan. US haș left the game it started. EU is poor in money and courage. You are alone. You can not run a revolution now and you can not win the war. Shit happens.
This what they want you to do, the army of paid trolls attacking you in comments. Ukrainians don't deserve this, you are very valuable asset for Ukraine in describing the war with such a barbaric asian aggressor
Many thanks Tom for writing the truth about what is really happening in UA, how the traitors, who seized power, are selling out Ukraine to its enemy.
Tom should not care about wailing of paid fsb trolls here.
The Zelenskyi bashing is getting tiresome Tom, to me I find it distracts from the real meat of your analysis and reporting.
He's by no means perfect, but it seems to me that now you're just de-legitimizing and bashing Zelenskyi every chance you get, with no view as to the effect of doing so. It's near impossible in the eyes of the public in the 'West' to separate Zelenskyi and Ukraine, what hurts Zelenskyi also hurts Ukraine right now, wrong as that may be, it is what it is.
There is at long last a competent person in charge of defense, but he's not had time to effect any system-wide changes.
Zelenskyi's made plenty of mistakes, especially keeping Yermak around for so long, and like it or not, he's running a democratic state and must keep an eye on internal politics - which used to be Yermak's job. With Tymoshenko actively working to break up the majority in VK, with an eye on future elections (she and Poroshenko were both approached by Trump advisors eyeing a coup against Zelenskyi), he has to deal with that added dimension. He is not as omnipotent as some believe.
I think you know that we have Yermak's protection of Mindich to thank for substations not being fortified. Did Zelenskyi know about this, should he have known? We don't know, how much micro management can you do when running a country at war for six years without a break?
Was he naive in trusting Yermak? 100% yes.
The reason there are less Patriots and SAMs is due to the failings of the US and Europe, where this narrative of Zelenskyi and a fistful of dollars (as seen on your FB today) is being used to slow down support for Ukraine even further.
If you have intel on Ukrainian SAM manufacturers being starved or hindered please share that. I am personally unaware of any Ukrainian Patriot manufacturers.
What exactly are you expecting from Zelenskyi here? He can't magic up a bunch of SAM missiles, or money - which they were dangerously low on at the end of last year.
As to FIFA and IRGC
FIFA talks about letting Russia back in and you don't want any focus on that?
IRGC follows EU designation of them as a terrorist organization a few days ago, is it all possible these things are related?
95% agreement, but:
1) In a few days the 5th year of this war will start. 2026 will be the year of the decision ond which side the 'dice' will land and it is now clear that it is reduced to the question which side will break first.
So many wasted opportunities and so little advance planning. It feels like a blind believer is leading a pilgrim through a minefield several kilometers deep.
2) The price of incompetence is paid by the common people with their blood, limbs and finally lives.
3) The idiots in Western government have a "breathing space" as long Ukraine still stands fighting, but the consequences afterwards will be als heavy and punishing in Europe.
4) In sum, it is a tragedy of ancient proportions that should never have happened.
5) For those, who understand this and have empathy it produces an avalanche of bitterness.
Yeah, no disagreement there.
If only you knew how bad things really are , if Ukraine survival and unity was dependent on Zelensky the Russians would have taken him yesterday , but the Russians would love nothing more than Zelensky staying in power indefinitely, the damage he dealt to Ukraine is incalculable and he handed the them the war single handedly.
If you really doubt that Ukraine would survive or even thrive without the efforts of the Supreme leader please give me exactly what Zelensky did not Ukraine that no other could do ten times better?
You think Poroshenko or Tymoshenko could have done better? Yermak? Prytula?
Ukraine isn't dependent on any one person at this point, in 2022 maybe. Had Zelenskyi and his admin fled then things might have turned out differently, but they didn't, and the nation united behind them.
I'm sure someone like Biletskyy would be very effective as a wartime leader, probably much more effective on the battlefield, I'm equally sure I would not like what Ukraine might become under him.
If you read what I actually wrote, instead of superimposing your feelings onto it, I did not say Ukraine couldn't have done better, I did not say Zelenskyi is infallible, quite the opposite.
Zelenskyi is the elected leader of the country, end of story.
The russians have tried enough times to kill him, they stopped because after the initial months killing him would have created a martyr, preserving an idealized image of him the country could rally around, putin is not dumb, he knew the honeymoon would end. Now he can kill him, but only when a suitable gauleiter has been found to replace him.
Zelenskyi has to deal with the VK who are not always on his side, to put it mildly, with Tymoshenko who's advocating for breaking with Europe, he has to deal with the pro russians in OPZZh, with enemies in the US, and the EU, the moscow patriachate and what have you. This doesn't mean he's infallible, or couldn't do better, but he's one man balancing a wide range of interests during war. He also has to deal with the US and Europe effectively banning certain military actions that Ukraine really needs to take.
I recall Tom himself saying Syrskyi could be better than Zalushnyi at one point, which didn't turn out so well. Because Syrskyi is good at tactical planning, but terrible at systems and leadership. Zalushnyi was was good at delegation, and well read, but probably scared Yermak, so when the Zaporizhzhia offensive failed (due to US betrayal), he was blamed.
My point, if you cared to read what I wrote, is that just senselessly bashing Zelenskyi is not productive, and it detracts from real analysis. If Tom wants to bring a case against Zelenskyi, using real intelligence and facts, and not rumors, conjecture and name calling, I would welcome it. Blaming Zelenskyi for a lack of Patriot missiles is just silly.
Do you honestly think Europe and the US would have been so supportive if someone like Stefanchuck was in charge, or Boyko, or Medvedchuk? These politicians need a sympathetic and charismatic figure to latch on to, and to sell the spending of so much money to their populations. It's not pretty, but that is the way the world works. The sad state of affairs is that a lot of Europeans still don't understand the dangers of a russian victory. Every time someone spread the 'Zelenskyi is corrupt and doesn't care about his people' narrative, russia wins just a little bit.
So I ask for constructiveness, and 'waaah waah Zele bad' just doesn't cut it.
The entire narrative is built on the basis that because Zelensky did not flee the country because the entire Ukrainian nation did not flee and stopped the Russians in thier tracks now he gets to take credit for what the nation did, not him.
Perhaps had he fled may be other more competent and determined people could have taken his place , which might have been a better thing , I will elaborate on this later
No, again you are superimposing your feelings onto what I wrote, you should stop that. Don't misrepresent my words.
He should be credited for staying, and it did help in the early days when everyone was unsure of what would happen - this is psychology 101. If the leaders flee in the face of an invasion morale sinks.
If Zelenskyi had fled it would have damaged morale in a big way, and Stefanchuk would have become president - are you stating he's more competent? If he'd fled they would have elected a new Chairman - to become automatically Acting President, who would they have elected? They would have been gridlocked as everyone fought over power and payouts, the country would have been leaderless at the exact moment when leadership was needed. You can't deny that what Zelenskyi did in the first weeks and months was beneficial. And you seemingly forget the extremely successful defense of Kyiv, and the Kharkiv/Kherson offensives.
Or are you arguing there should have been a coup?
Who would be both more competent, and able to get support from the West?
No-one associated with OPZZh, Pravi Sektor, Azov, or Svoboda for sure - they were 100% toxic in the West at the time, Biletskyi and Azov have managed to rehabilitate themselves to some degree, but are still not 'savory' in the West.
Prytula doesn't have what it takes, neither does Tymoshenko or Poroshenko, you know this. So who then?
I will elaborate further later.
But for now clearly many people here did not fight a war as a decentralized people united by necessity and will to resist at all cost and so they think a corrupted bureaucracy like that of Putin's is the panacea to win all wars and be able to hold thier ground against a superior enemy.
Imagine a corrupt regime like ISI could survive a beheading of all military and perhaps political figureheads and still manage to survive and even stand its ground against the total might of the US and that without a Zelensky like figure at the helm.
Ukraine in 2026?
What are we going to without Zelensky tomorrow, imagine if we lost Zele in 2022 what could've happened.
Meanwhile in Iran and Gaza they replace leaders on a daily basis without giving up
I guess there is a lesson to be learned there somewhere
What are you on about?
Unlike these other places you mention Ukraine is a democracy, it's not bound by extremist death cults like IS or Hamas. Iran hasn't changed leaders since Khomeini died in 1989..., and I guarantee that if you decapitate the Iranian leadership a very different country will emerge, sadly probably a ghastly civil war first. Iranians are not behind the IRGC or Khamenei.
I guarantee you that if some right wing military leader had seized control of the Ukrainian state in 2022 there would have been no support from the West, no Gepards, Leopards, 155mm ammo, no Patriots or SAMs, no F-16s. The West (who believed in the Kyiv in 3 days scenario) would have made some deal with putin and carried on. You can't escape political realities.
I notice you're not answering any of my questions, just throwing out non-sequiteurs and 'what ifs'.
First, I have really enjoyed your comments. In Ukraine TV's recent interview of Tom, Tom mentioned an anti-drone company who approach him about a $4,000 drone they wanted to sell to Ukraine. Tom called some contacts but they didn't return a message. So Tom can see no open procurement process in Ukraine for drones--just his limited experience.
I understand Ukraine's desire to do everything in house, to protect from Russian stalking horses, etc., nonetheless, I find it odd no one is in Ukraine to consider such things.
That's a political problem. That problem comes from the top. Who else is Tom supposed to blame? I'm not attacking you with that, literally, who should he address?
Thanks. I can't speak to this particular company and how they've approached the issue, nor Tom's contacts. I've met real life Ukrainian drone manufacturers who didn't have a problem getting government contracts.
If one wants to sell to the AFU one could start here
https://market-brave1.delta.mil.gov.ua/vyrobnykam/
There are official channels, for foreign companies that can be through their own government programs, or embassies. There's the Come Back Alive foundation who are licensed for arms dealing. Or one could contact the Ministry of Defence directly.
My understanding is that they're trying to get away from the 'informal contacts' way of doing business.
He could lay this out in an orderly fashion and I would read with interest, it's the constant name calling and spending a third of an article on fuzzy personal attacks that I object to. I think it's counter productive, there are probably Ukrainians in leadership and AFU who read this Substack, and do they really want to work with someone who's constantly attacking leadership?
There is lots of work going on behind the scenes, especially in procurement, and lots of criticisms, anyone who follows Sternenko or Butusov will have noticed many angry posts about failures in procurement.
I do follow the Ministry of Defence, and I have seen various initiatives be mentioned from time to time, but it's not my interest so I haven't paid close attention.
Thanks. I can't speak for Tom, but for myself. I always have a list of around 50 stories I'm working on (and many more I just give up on). They all start with a spark of emotion. Then the emotion fades and I can't decide which story to finish. I'll work on one, then suffer from analysis leading to paralysis.
Only a renewed emotion gets me through.
It's also hard to engage readers if there's no emotion. I don't get a salary from some government agency to be methodical and unpolitical in my analysis.
Therefore, only emotions will power me to the finish line. Those emotions weaken what I want to say, but again, without emotions all I have is dry analysis. That's the bargain I make.
From the beginning I've felt like you do. That Tom is too judgmental of various people. I let it pass because I don't have another mechanism he could use to bridge the gap between one's cold analysis and emotional connection to others.
I assume you're right. That there are channels for drone makers to go through. It is best to have a transparent system like that. But for anyone looking for a job, in general, the reality is most deals are done outside that system.
If Tom's reputation doesn't give him any weight in that system I think that means something, don't you?
Why would constant attacks and allegations of corruption and incompetence over a four year period give Tom weight in AFU leadership?
I don't mind emotion, but there are limits.
He's blaming the Zelenskyi for the US not delivering Patriot missiles, as if Zelenskyi could affect that in any way. It's just unnecessary, I've seen it for the last couple of years and I'm just tired of it.
There is an old saying, you catch more bees with honey than with vinegar.
I find Ukrainians to be quite a bit like Norwegians in some sense, altho we've been tamed by prosperity and peace of late, I can tell you that attacks like this wouldn't endear him to anyone in Norway, on the contrary, it's a turn off.
This is why I finally decided to speak up, because name calling and the constant corruption accusations is going to close ears - not open them.
Where did Tom ever blame Zelenskyi for the US not delivering Patriot missiles? My memory is, if anything, Tom wrote Zelensky is naive to believe they'll definitely come (which has become true)?
Maybe the fact that Tom has not exactly been wrong about the progression of War in the past 4 years might give him some weight in the AFU leadership? What you're basically implying is the AFU is of one mind and it doesn't accept criticism. If that's the case, the shouldn't we all pack it in?
I can't stand Scott Ritter. Can't stand him! But he too--I hate to say--was right in the beginning that everyone who underestimated Russia were doing Ukraine no favors.
To suggest the AFU is monolithic, a system of patronage, that Tom shouldn't ever expect to communicate with is a bit mind-blowing to me.
"A man is only as big as the things that make him mad". It the AFU is mad at Tom I don't know what to say ;)
"because, precisely as assessed several times the last year, Zele’s fighting the war by winning likes in the social media is no strategy at all. It’s neither serving the purpose of protecting the Ukrainian energy production, nor the supply of energy to factories manufacturing arms and ammunition. Just like deliveries of additional SAMP-Ts and Patriots are no replacements for missiles necessary to make these work and defend Ukraine: because even 150 Patriot systems would be entirely useless if they have no missiles to fire. "
Here he ties together social media strategy and patriot deliveries in one point.
I don't claim to speak for anyone but myself, don't change my words to mean something I'm clearly not saying.
I never suggested AFU was monolithic, tho it has become more so under Syrskyi, nor a patronage system (tho that's what Tom's been saying for years, specifically about Syrskyi and company).
I'm not suggesting they're mad at him, or even aware of him at the top level. What I'm suggesting is that the form may lead to people ignoring him, or reading the first few paragraphs and deciding 'this is bullshit'. I'm suggesting that it may very well be possible that they didn't pick up the phone because they're tired of it. Tom isn't in the AFU leadership, is not a Ukrainian, and I don't see why there should be an expectation of a direct line to AFU procurements? Exactly the kind of direct line corruption he's railing against?
Thinking foreigners should have, or deserve, weight in the AFU leadership because 'they know best', is a bit of a stretch.
I've always found that insulting people rarely gets results, but maybe that works in Tom's world.
Let me put it like this:
It is precisely because Tom has valuable insights that I want to see less of the personal attacks, less hyperbole, because I do want him to be read and heard by the right people.
I am 110% with you on this which is why I did try to push back on some of the stuff Tom wrote when I first subscribed. I 100% agree with your comments. He and others aren't addressed when they speak calmly. They're vilified when they speak emotionally.
I'll argue that only outsiders have the freedom to pound the table. Insiders can't because all organizations reject criticism. Again, not the solution I want. I go back and forth.
Typically, all you wiseacres that 'know' I'm offering 'nothing constructive', and only memorise 'name-calling' etc. - have failed to read every single article specifically listing what Ukraine needs.
...and I grew tired of searching them for you. Here's the site map:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/sitemap
Read, inform yourself, find out what nonsense are you babbling.
You can't have read what I've written. I'm criticising the name calling.
I'm not new here Tom, as you should know I've been reading your posts for years, I have found your analyses interesting and valuable, I never said you offered nothing constructive - on the contrary.
What I'm saying is that the constant attacks on Zelenskyi, the constant claims of corruption, of leading a 'gang' and all the rest - distract from your analysis, and I believe it hurts Ukraine, it feeds nihilism and apathy.
To the point that for me I've tired of parsing through a page of name calling to get to the meat of the analysis.
You are correct a political problem, in the sense as elected President of Ukraine, Zelenskyi is in charge PLUS his advisers/ministers.
Constructive criticism is always good for pluralism/real democracy governance, the only way to LOOK for solutions, efficient systems, etc with fact based/real information not PR information.
Yeah, I enjoy Tom's bleak assessment as a counterpoint to other less dramatic sources and appreciate your considerations outlined here.
Cheers Sasha.
1. "Collecting likes" is something every government has done since the advent of mass media, and especially during the war. The governments of NATO are doing the same.
2. I see a lot of criticism of Zele and NATO, and that's normal. But I don't see any proposals for how to fix this. In particular, how to protect distribution substations, which have a huge area
we are long past making any proposals
in simple words: "we are cooked", there's nothing else left to do but to just sit and watch the ship sinking. I've been reading this substack for a while and there were plenty of proposals on how to fix things(literally the most simple thing to do is to fire Syrskyi). None of those things were done. I'm not trying to doom but again I repeat WE ARE COOKED.
Zelensky is not interested in winning the war, he doesn't care. The only thing he cares about is getting re-elected and his whole decision making is based on that. There's no point in looking at this situation from the perspective of "what can Zelensky do", the correct question was "what should've Zelensky done?". His decision making throughout the war has led us to this exact point, where Ukraine is losing the war. Poor Zelensky though, he's so tired and needs a rest, surely he'll step down after the war ends.... oh wait
this whole thing gets tiring to repeat, because this trajectory of the war was predicted here many months ago and the same thing is being stated over and over again to readers that are in denial about the situation. and the said thing is that apparently to western readers here the victims and people deserving sympathy is someone like Zelensky and not Ukrainian people that are suffering.
How will Syrsky's dismissal protect the energy sector from missiles?
Let keep em around , no need to plan ahead or think big , there are a lot of things that needs to be screwed, who'd do that if we dismiss Syrsky
No strategic genius will change the balance of power and resources; changing the commander will not increase the number of fighters and weapons.
The decisions of a single commander were effective in ancient times, when several thousand men converged on the field, and one mistake led to defeat, while an unconventional move led to victory. But by the Middle Ages, this no longer worked, with the advent of military science. Since then, resources have played a decisive role. With strategy and tactics, only savages could be defeated with small forces. In the 20th century, however, not only resources but also advanced science and technology became decisive.
Ukrainians count thier blessings because Putin and his military leadership were so incompetent in 2022 they through thier resources to a buttomless pit and fumbled a done deal because they did not have a long term plan , they are still incompetent but they learned.
Meanwhile Putin's generals are counting thier blessings from 2023 till 2026 because Zelensky literally grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory.
If you want to win battles study tactics and military art, if you want to win wars study strategy and logistics
Amount of resources is only useful when applied correctly, no amount of resources will solve a problem if not spent on the right solution and If the commander in chief decided to waste the military and financial resources aimlessly , no amount of these will bring victory , case and point look at the Russians
You do know that it was the US that forbade Zalushnyi to keep the Kherson offensive going into Zaporizhzhia? That forbade him from attacking Surovikin's 40K retreating troops, that delayed deliveries in the spring of '23, that forced the AFU to adopt a strategy for the Zaporizhzhia offensive that could not work - because the US gave Surovikin 9 months to prepare defenses, with the 40K troops they allowed him to withdraw unharmed from Kherson?
That the Kharkiv offensive stalled in part because Starlink were delaying activation in newly freed territories?
Jake Sullivan bears a larger responsibility for Ukrainian casualties than anyone apart from putin himself.
There have been errors, in long term thinking, in dealing with corruption (for example non-existant or poor defenses presented as strong defenses, or the issue of protecting substations), but to lay the current situation at Zelenskyi's feet is dishonest in the extreme.
Could you explain how they can launch an offensive with only 10% of the weapons Zaluzhny requested? And what does Zelenskyy have to do with this?
You have missed mate, ..Ukrainian people that are suffering from zelensky, his boss pudding and his team of looters traitors who are seized the power in UA
99% agreement with one exception:
Zelensky is interested in winning the war, otherwise he will be president in exile (in the best personal case).
He is just absolutely clueless how to do it. He does what he knows and that is PR show. He delegated to the wrong people and now the consequences of wrong decisions show up.
Could not have said it better, I knew it was over since the first day of the counter offensive in 2023 , just looking at the composition of the forces , the schwerpunkt and axis of attacks I knew it was over because I did not someone get hanged for that and many others facing the firing squad, now after all the strategic plunders were made many years ago we still have people now in anno domini 2026 wondering what went wrong
Sigh... like Sasha the Norwegian' above, you've read two articles on this blog, and think to know everything that's been posted here. 🙄
For your orientation, there's a site map, here:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/sitemap
Typically, all you wiseacres that 'know' I'm offering 'nothing constructive' - have failed to read every single article specifically listing what Ukraine needs.
Error. I started reading your blog in April 2022. I don't recall your proposals for protecting the power grid. No air defense system can protect gigantic thermal power plants and distribution fields from massive ballistic missile attacks. The only solution is distributed generation. As an energy engineer, I follow this topic closely and I assure you, the Ukrainians are working on this issue. Several companies produce systems of varying capacities for different fuel types, including piston and gas turbine systems. Much similar equipment comes from Europe. Naturally, replacing the system will take years and billions of dollars. Incidentally, it was precisely the large number of small private boiler houses, thermal power plants, and water supply systems that saved Germany and England from complete blackouts during the all-out bombing.
Now you're plain lying Tom, I've read you for years, commented, even pmed you.
Now you're BS-itting so much (and so hard), that I'll stop responding to this BS right here.
Search up my tag in your inbox and stats, I mean, how can I even comment here without paying your subscription? Gaslighting me because you don't like criticism is a bit far isn't it? I can post screenshots if you prefer?
A quick search to find this from a year ago:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-kursk-bulge/comments
First PM 27th Feb'25
Really: either you unsubscribe on your own, right away - or I'll ban you as next. By side all your moronic nonsense, but: you're wasting my time.
No amount of AA's will suffice to protect any kind of static target in the long term, even if Zele along with whole Rada shat with concrete slabs 24/7 since 2022.
The only thing that would really help is demolishing Russian military factories and more strict sanctions, embargo preferably. Neither is achievable by Ukraine alone. Of all people here you should know it better than anyone, Mr. Cooper.
Russia is European problem, but somehow Europe is still is too busy sucking Kremlin's oil and sniffing its natural gas, not to mention other rare-earth resources.
As a native russian-speaking inhabitant of Crimea who was forcefully occupied in 2014 among many others: you are weak, timid and docile, Europe. Will you ever wake up?
What Gepards, Skynets and similar stuff are designed for? Why don't PSU use them to protect critical infrastructure?
Because that wouldn't work. Gepard is from the 70's of last century and was built to protect mechanized columns during the march.
Skynet is modern last ditch protection (i.e. SHORT range) and useless against ballistic missiles.
SAMP-T and it's next version (currently under developement) are very useful, but the number of available missiles is just a drop of water on a very hot stone.
Quality has to be in needed numbers otherwise it's impact is negligible.
Addendum:
Basically the Russian AD has the same problem, but on a very much different scale.
BS from a paid troll. Get lost.
Gepards has shot down many cruise missles in 2022-2023
I seem to recall having had some arguments with Oskar in the past, but paid troll he's not.
You can't stop ballistic missiles with Gepards.
Cruise missiles, yes, a few have been shot down.
Shahed/Geran - yes, many have been shot down.
Ballistic missiles - need Patriot or similar, and they're missing more and more.
As Oskar says, you need quantity, it takes 12-18 months to produce 1 (one)! Patriot missile, and the US hasn't ramped up production nearly enough. One of the reasons for that is that newer systems are here/coming, and they didn't want the sunk cost of obsolete Patriot missile production lines.
All the Patriots are going to the middle east to form a missile shield around Israel , even Zelensky support protecting Israel against the Iranian missiles , I do not know if he would perfer intercepting Iranian missiles over Russian missiles but seems he is more interested in supporting a war on Iran than winning the war his country is currently fighting
Come on man, get a grip, given a choice he'd take every Patriot in existence, now you're just being silly.
😁😂😂🤣
A religious fanatic tries to ignore reality and resorts to the age-old method of sophistry through defamation (also known as ad hominem) as a substitute for arguments.
😁😂😂🤣
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard (short article, english)
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flugabwehrkanonenpanzer_Gepard (long article, german)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgWN6zlP1NI (video, german)
The Gepard has been effective over 80% of the time a cruise missile or drone entered their 4000 meter range.
Of course no surprise. That fits his design. Within the design limits it was and is a very effective weapon system.
The high water mark for it was 377 tanks (Bundeswehr) and Ukraine did get ~50. The short-lived successor was Roland.
Maybe even better. Gepards are very effective costwise as well SAMs against cruise mozcovian missiles and UAVs which used to hit Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukraine has received over 130pcs of them in total, but they surprisingly are not used at all currently to protect critical infrastructure by order of puppet kremlin government in Ukraine most likely
According to published data only, Gepard's effective fire range is 5.5 km (3.4 miles) and 15km radar range
bro, you think skynets are being delivered daily or what? Are you even for real? You all have stupidly high expectatons.
Are you trying to say you loose them daily or what? Why stupidly high expectatons? Isn't +100 Gepards enough to protect critical infrastructure even as object AD as you or your masters prefer?
No, you expect AFU/PSU to have 100% coverage with 100% intercept rate. I say -- hold your horses.
I didn't, you just distorted what I meant
bro, what about those "masters"? ^))) wtf is that about?
Zelensky and Yermak couple with their puppet Syrsky obviously. Not saying about their masters you know
What? You assumed I'm covering for them here because... ? Whatever works for you.
The name of the game is "Corruption meets greedy idiots" and it is as old as mankind.
Oskar! :) Tom needs you to write his titles.
Thank you! 🤣
But no, really he doesn't. 😁
Actually, he (Tom), needs your help, not because he can't do it himself, but because in my perception his plate is already overflowing and could use the assistance. **LOL**
In theory that sound easy, but he has his own work rhythm and has been used to it for a long time.
That is his decision. I am happy if I can help someone within my limits. (BTW he has my private e-mail address)
Russians are killing us regardless of Zele. So let's first fix this issue ;)
Help us to get weapone to stop russians aggression.
Why is that so 'impossible' to comprehend?
You can't fix that issue without fixing your incompetent and corrupt leadership - first. That's like if trying to heal a fever by cutting off the leg.
Of course, you can try. Just see where is that bringing you. 🙄
Assuming that destroying Russian weapons production (facilities) is not yet possible to a substantial degree or to the necessarily large scale, what would it take at least to kill the archers instead of predominantly killing the arrows? ... or at least killing the airborne archers, e.g., Tu-22, Tu-160, Mig-31, Su-34, Su-35 and the like?
Ukraine simply can't do that, because the only way everything there - including the armed forces - works, is through oligarchy and thus corruption.
Correspondingly: nobody is going to come to the idea to develop the necessary reconnaissance-strike complex. Only to bribe commanders to buy selected weapons from selected companies and then strike targets of oligarchic preference.
And, well: VKS' airbases are of nobody's interest.
Therefore, 6-7 different Ukrainian agencies are, on order from 6-7 different gangs of oligarchy, striking 6-7 different types of targets.
...as and when they find the means to do so, and some of these 6-7 different gangs of oligarchy orders them to do so.
IOW, too disorganized to pull off an effective attack against the archers even if Ukraine had the weaponry and delivery systems to do so.
So instead to fix the problem with russians we should change the president to someone unknown (how?), who will be better (why?), oligarchs disappear (why?), we build own Tomahawk in 1 month (why?), etc.
You sounds like populist, no difference with Zele.
Maybe it is beter to build what works, scale Madyar, scale Khartia (where Butusov), build distributed heating system etc
I wonder where you read about oligarchs? What exactly works through oligarchs? Whom you think are oligarchs? Do you really think that commanders take bribes to order certain weapons? Which commanders?
It looks like you write a lot but without the facts.
Sigh... OK, then we're back to this: You can't fix that issue without fixing your incompetent and corrupt leadership - first. That's like if trying to heal a fever by cutting off the leg.
Of course, you can try. Just see where is that bringing you. 🙄
Tom, obviously, electiion is impossible now. So there's no sense to talk about this. Russians will completelly destroy us during election.
Let's do what we can to stop russians aggression.
And you don't answer anything regarding oligarchs but blame a lot. It's unfair…
Power can always be shared , no need to keep all the decisions solely at the hands of one person and his inner circle of hangers on
...especially not considering how often and how much is that one person wrong, and how many mistakes is he doing every single day...
You wrote a lot about Zelensky’s responsibility, but very little about those who approved this strike when it was −28 degrees outside.
And yes, I agree: it is better to drink a cappuccino in the morning than to leave a метро station after spending the whole night there.
I would also note that even Rutte’s visit did not protect Ukrainians from shelling, and, of course, the West reacted calmly to yet another strike — as if it were something routine.
Call me a simpleton, but I don't understand how one country can start destroying another country's cash cow and then be surprised when that other country blows up their power plants and trains?
Tom never argued that Ukraine should try to make the economic costs for Russia so high that Russia would withdraw. Not once I can remember (Please correct me). Instead, he argued that Ukraine had to protect the front line to the point that Russia just gave up, because that's an economic and political cost too.
Anyway, Ukraine took the economic attritional approach (attack interior of Russia) and Tom has simply pointed out that Ukraine has done very well in making those moves, but seems to have not prepared for Russia's counter-moves which again, call me simpleton, anyone could predict?
Who would've thought that getting into a war of attrition against a bigger country with much much more population and resources means the smaller country would run out of resources first?
Certainly not Zelensky, its not like it is in the name "attrition" literally meaning constant loss of resources to bleed the enemy dry.
Ukraine can only win if they can mount a series of operations that can cumble the front line and cause dramatic losses to convince the Russians of the futility of continuing the at the current rhythm and scope and make thier disposition untenable like they did in Kharkiv, Kherson and Northern Ukraine
There was a perfect window to this , Zelensky willingly wasted it and preferred to considerate the power of his party over the military and country instead and we all can see the results of that, his fans can say what they will and blame the US and the West all they want .
I think the war of attrition idea started with the Biden administration. The sanctions were going to make it so that the Russian military and/or economy would collapse in 6 months. It seems Zelensky is continuing with this strategy. It should have been obvious quite a while ago, even back when Biden was still president, that it wasn't working.
Sadly in the best case scenario Zelensky is a military illiterate just like Putin.
I knew instantly since early 2023 that someone wanted this conflict to turn into another Iran-Iraq war that would exhaust both nations without a clear victor.
And if I can see this (I am less intelligent than most people) very clearly even back then , other much more intelligent and infinitely much more informed and advised people can see it too.
And if these peolpe are working toward an outcome they know full well that it will not end well then it safe to assume those in high command both in Ukraine and the US are insincere and does not hold the best interest of the common people at heart (which is a given anyway)
There is no way that all those people who lead multi-billion organizations are all idiots and morons who throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks.
Empires are not maintained that way , someone want this outcome , someone put effort and resources to reach this outcome.
It was not lets try this strategy and see what happens , thats like Saddam's modus operandi , and we know how all that ended
Well, in the US there are 2 different administrations, Biden and Trump, with completely different goals. Trump is crazy and prefers Putin but doesn't want to be too obvious about it. So lets talk about Biden. And Biden is largely the reason we find ourselves in the current situation.
Biden is no titan of industry or even very smart. He is a very friendly and somewhat charismatic guy who got elected in a small state that tends to reelect incumbents. He was in the US Senate for 36 years, never being seriously challenged. He only left to become Vice President under Obama. (Obama needed someone who would help him with the male white vote.) In the US the Vice President has almost nothing to do. It's boring job that LBJ hated. Biden seemed to love it. I don't think I'd ever seen someone so happy to be Vice President. He had run for President decades before but had very little success. He wanted to run for President after Obama but was talked into standing down to let Hilary get the nomination.
In 2020 he won the Democratic nomination for President. I think this is more due to the weakness of the Democratic Party than the strength of Biden. He wasn't a very good candidate but Trump was such a disaster that he eked out a win.
Now as President he seemed to imagine himself a foreign policy genius. He never grasped the threat that Russia posed to the US. Russia interfered in the 2016 US election and continued to support pre-Russia politicians and parties thoughout the world. Biden apparently saw the Russian invasion as something of a local border issue. Maybe he did imagine that it could be drawn out to weaken Russia. At any rate he never realized that this was only one theater in a Russian campaign against US, NATO, and the West. By fully supporting Ukraine he could have ended Russian aspirations. Instead he put restraints on what Ukraine could do to defend itself. He exagerated how much financial support he was giving Ukraine, I guess thinking it would make him look good. Instead it caused a backlash against Ukraine as people thought why are we sending money to this far away country that we don't care about? Biden never articulated why we were supporting Ukraine or explained coherent goals and how we were going to attain them.
It could appear they were trying to draw out the conflict to weaken both sides. More likely it was just shear incompetence. Biden and his administration couldn't imagine that they would lose reelection. They couldn't imagine that they wouldn't have another 4 years (at least) to work on their slow support strategy. They set up the situation where Zelensky felt he had to constantly impress supporting countries with Ukraine's successes in order to get weapons and ammunition.
I pretty much concluded this outcome since the first month of the invasion , i did not need a crystal ball because the US foreign policies are mostly filter through Israeli lenses no matter who is the incumbent President.
A total Ukrainian victory , an especially one that is does not include the total ruination of the country is a doomsday scenario, any prospect that includes regime change in Russia or total defeat is out of question, Russia is needed to keep both Europe and China under the sword of Damocles , any shift of power would unbalance the global scales which would dangerously threaten the post wwii world order , a big nar nar bo bo.
But a total Russian victory is also a not preferable outcome , remember that the Golem of Prague ultimately turned on its makers after it fulfilled it function and had nothing else to do and had to be put down.
So the total exhaustion of both countries in the style of the Iran-Iraq war was the perfect outcome , constantly balance the scales by giving one side a boost everytime the otherside gains the upper hand until both countries where completely drained financially and socially.
Every intelligence service and political figure knew Putin's intentions toward Belarusia ,Ukraine and Europe in general and everyone knew in advance that Europe buying cheap gas from Russia would only fuel thier military machine and future war yet they did it intentionally.
We can attribute that to incompetence, but if starting counting the amount of honest mistakes attributed to simple incompetence in the last 30 years we will reach only one of two logical conclusions, ether every politician, planner , military leader and think tank and decision maker in the first world was a complete drooling moron , and thats every last one of them which no way to maintaining a planet spanning empire , or we must assume some of them had an inkling of things to come and they were ok with it , and thats the actual policy that maintained the empire.
Make no mistake , all the time the Ukraine war was raging the Russian troops in Syria ,Sudan and Libya are coordinating and coopersting with the US and Israel in an extremely cordial manner even when Russian troops are getting pummeled by American bombs , because Putin knows full well it could get worse , way way worse , so he is counting his blessings and performs his role in the game.
After October 7th it was game over , Israel could not tolerate even the prospect of Ukraine ending the war in a stalemate , all the high end weapons were shifted toward Israel , the Biden administration would be succeeded with a new Technocracy full of hardliners and the entire foreign and domestic policies of the US would be changed dramatically.
Russia is needed to complete the ring around China and keep the Euros in check , and need to end this war on face saving manner , an ignominious defeat (i.e. peace on Ukrainian terms) would shatter the Russian psyche and put the entire Putin regime in jeopardy and thus future prospects of using Russia as a cats paw.
As for Zelensky he did not need to impress anybody , the Ukrainians already did that for him , everybody saw how stopped the entire invasion in its tracks with minimal foreign support, Ukraine was a solid investment to dismantle the entire Russian military machine for practically peanuts.
Now enter Zelensky, whose job is actually to prevent such an outcome , dismissed all the competent ones and replaced with the worst types and made sure all efforts and sacrifices go in vain siphoning the monetary aid , wasting the military resources needlessly in the most incompetent manner and making everybody who can fight flee the country in record time for a peak where the Ukrainian military could not even find weapons and gear to equipp the influx of volunteers.
The result was breaking the trust with everyone inside and outside Ukraine and ofcourse he had to cover his failures and perhaps self sabotage by lying blatantly to sell his supposed achievements.
The argument that the West would never had supported any other leader other than Zelensky is correct but for the wrong reasons , any other leader would have a very good use of the foreign aid and would've never squandered it , ergo ofcourse he would never get the same support.
Same goes for Putin , any other Russian leader would have used the gas revenues to make Russia super power instead of squandering it invading neighbors, therefore no other Russian leader would get such sweetheart economic deal except for Putin , because that is the actual purpose of the deal.
The question for me then is what Clausewitz called the Center of Gravity of your enemy. Does Russia have a C of G in this lousy war? If so, then what is Russia's C of G in relation to Ukraine? Does Ukraine have the capability to attack it or is it too late for Ukraine to do so? In my perception Russia's C of G could be political as much as military when it comes to a military's primary wartime function: to break things & kill people.
Their C of G has to be oil & gas. But, why has the EU taken so long to stop buying, why have the Turks been exeempted from aiding Poutine? Why is the US still buying Uranium, and selling comms equipment to them? Is no one other than the Kremlin serious about this war?
To your last question: No ... except perhaps for a few Ukrainians, mostly those suffering on the front and in the cities under bombardment. And Tom.
But hold.on, if UA hadn't done what they did, would RU then have spent its drones/ballstic missiles on frontline (or at least military) targets instead of powerplants and trains? I find that hard to believe, maybe I misunderstood?
Bro, common, ruzzia started pounded on Ukraine's electricity generation back in October 22 , 2022 (twenty bloody two). Restore your memory banks, will you? That's when first blackouts started occuring.
Now, about your bloody "power plants and trains" tirade. Bro, these are THERMAL fucking plants that generate HEAT and push hot water via centralised heating system.
In the fall of '22 Jake Sullivan specifically ordered the AFU to stop in Kherson, this is common knowledge now. The starling issues in Kharkiv were also widely disseminated at the time.
Well Churchill would also have failed and had no strategy but the USA to enter the war against the dictator.
...that was still a strategy of the kind Zele and his idiots can't imagine putting together.
Seeing that the US just shot down a Shahed-129 observing their carrier group, it looks like we are very shortly going to find ourselves in a situation where Zelenskiy won't be getting a single PAC-3 interceptor to replenish his stockpiles: free-fire for the Russians on the capital. Meanwhile the President of Social Media has been Tweeting in Persian wishing revenge upon Iran for all the Shaheds that have struck Ukraine. But of course: as readers here know by now, he doesn't have the slightest interest in understanding Ukraine's strategic position, and besides, to the extent that he has any clue what he's doing whatsoever, that's currying favour with the Epstein network/Trump administration which naturally means indulging his affinity for Israel.