Ukraine War, 29 May 2024

Good morning everybody!

Few updates on latest developments in the air and on the ground…

On the diplomatic scene it’s funny to watch Macron lecturing Scholz about prohibition of deployment of Western-made weapons for attacks on the Russian proper, where Macron is THE character in western Europe that is doing exactly the least to help Ukraine… Somebody in his staff, please remind him about his.

Surprisingly enough, this had its effects: yesterday, Scholz did say something like that henceforth Ukraine is free to deploy such weapons for attacks on Russia, provided, ‘that this must always be within the framework of international law’.

….but: it’s interesting to monitor how the staff of the German chancellor can’t do its job, while a babbler from Élysée - can…

(Overall, considering this drama….well, no surprise then to hear how ‘white mad’ were Biden-Blinken-Sullivan when, back on 13 May 2023, the PSU deployed its Patriot SAMs to smash two Russian Mi-8s, a Su-34 and Su-35 inside the Russian airspace… at least one needs not wondering why were such actions not repeated ever since.)

On the battlefield… well, Pudding-fans, can’t help it but call a spade a spade: the Russians continue suffering heavy losses. What’s of particular interest is the pattern of their ground attacks in this month: first they assault with mechanised forces, and get smashed. Then they follow up with infantry mounted on BMPs and MT-LBs, and get smashed. Then they’re down to attacking on golf-carts and motorbikes. Some of these are successful - as far as Ukrainians let them. Means: they first attack with (what’s left of) ‘their best’, then with ever less…

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AIR/MISSILE WAR

After weeks-long ‘mapping’ of the PSU’s air defence system with help of small-scale Shahed attacks, in the night from 25 May to 26 May, the Russians run a bigger air strike on Ukraine. Have released 12 Kh-101s and Kh-555s, 2 Kinzhals, and 31 Shaheds. All of cruise missiles and Iranian-designed drones were shot down, but both Kinzhals scored hits. Not yet sure if it was one of these missiles, or an S-300 that hit a shopping mal in Kharkiv, killing at least five, and wounding more than 40 – civilians. But, can’t but repeat something like my ‘warning’: whatever one thinks about this kind of strikes on ‘purely civilian objects’, one should keep in mind that for the Russians, any kind of a ‘hall’ is meanwhile ‘storage centre for Western weapons’. They simply can’t actively search for these on their own, and depend on dubious ‘intelligence’ provided by local informants. Thus, ‘if it has a big roof, it’s a military target’.

Please, keep that in mind, Ukrainians…

Then… in reaction to Macron’s demands and Scholz’s declaration, Putin issued another threat (‘they should know what are they playing with’ – as if he doesn’t know?), actually expressing his fear of Western long-range weapons: and indeed, already few hours later something (probably Ukrainian UAV?) hit something in Belgorod, causing a big fire… Also hit, already yesterday in the morning, was the eastern side of the Taganrog AB: probably the 325^th Aircraft Repair Works. And because on 26 May the Russians hit the Starokostiantyniv AB in western Ukraine (results seem to be unclear), late on 27 May, Ukrainians have hit the Luhansk Airport with ATACMS: there’s still not much clarity in this regards, but first reports were indicating the destruction of at least one radar and several launchers of another S-300/S-400 SAM-system.

BTW, the PSU has not only received another IRIS-T SAM-system (4^th in total), but also adapted at least one of its MiG-29s to carry BRU-61 multiple ejector racks, which in turn enables them to deploy up to six GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDBs) at once.

Here you can see the ‘how’: essentially, there is a ‘do-it-yourself’ style of pylon/adapter (top of the photo), which in turn is carrying the BRU-61 multiple ejector rack (dark grey shape in the centre). The BRU-61 can load a maximum of four GBU-39s. However, MiG-29 can’t take as many as eight at once. Thus, Ukrainians are loading ‘only’ three GBU-39 bombs per every BRU-61 - for a maximum of six per aircraft.

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In general, the last few days, also the number of reports about destruction of the Russian artillery went down – simply because this is ever more seldom deployed in combat: it suffered such heavy losses over the last few months (and that while ZSU artillery was so short on ammo): now, when Ukrainians have artillery ammo again, the Keystone Cops are trying to save what’s left of their artillery. Of course, the less the Russian artillery is shooting, the better.

Rarely reported (especially by Ukrainians): destroyed Russian artillery. This used to be a MSTA-S self-propelled howitzer. It was smashed around 10-13 May this year.

Northern Kharkiv…

On the western side, the Russians have approached the northern outskirts of Lyptsi, some three or four days ago. Didn’t get any further so far.

Vovchansk… It was (relatively) ‘quiet’ for 2-3 days after a counterattack of the 82^nd Airborne, the last week. Then, on 25 May, the Russians assaulted en mass into central Vovchansk and have captured the School No. 2. Ever since, it’s (relatively) ‘quiet’ again: it takes them time to bring in replacements for all of their losses.

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

Svatove-Kupyansk… on 26 May, the Russians assaulted from Kolomychykha towards west, and seem to have gained one field, yesterday. Yesterday, an assault group on motorbikes attacked from Novodyane in western direction and was promptly destroyed.

Bakhmut… Over the last two days, the Russians continued assaulting with small assault groups from Bohdanivka on Kalinina, north-east of Chasiv Yar, and into the Kanal District. Haven’t seen any kind of significant gains. Indeed: as often as they enter the Kanal District, Ukrainians counterattack and destroy them. South of there, the Russians continued assaulting along the T0504, and south-west from Ivanivske, but Ukrainians are not letting them establish a new bridgehead over the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal.

Avdiivka-Pokrovsk… The Russians are still assaulting from Ocheretyne towards Novooleksandrivka, still without success. West of Ocheretyne, they are pushing along the railway berm in direction of Sokil, and seem to have gained another field. The last week, the Russians have captured Soloviove: ever since, they are pushing on Novoprokorvske – and are heavily hit by Ukrainian artillery and FPVs whenever they do so.  

In the south of this sector, after four weeks of grinding, on 25 May the Russians have secured Umanske and then attempted to press north and west of it. Further south, they are assaulting from Netaliove in western direction (in direction of Karlivka).

Mariinka… the Russians continued assaulting the centre of the (completely ruined) Krasnohorivka from the south, and the eastern side of the place, too. Not sure they really made any advances there, though. Moreover, on 28 May, a battalion of the 47^th Mech run a counterattack in this area (yes, with its Bradley IFVs): might have encircled some Russians there.

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SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA & DNIPRO

Staromaiorske-Velyka Novosilka… after something like two weeks of heavy bombardment by UMPKs and attack drones, and ground assaults, the Russians have secured southern Staromaiorske. They are still outside Urozhaine, though.

Krynky… since they have been replenished with artillery ammunition, Ukrainians have widened their attacks in southern direction: through southern Krynky towards Kozachi Laheri. Makes clear why the Keystone Cops in Moscow actually re-deployed the 76^th VDV Division in this direction – as reported the last week – but: also the fact that the security within upper ranks of the ZSU is still far from perfect. Ukrainian HIMARS are known to have hit multiple targets on the left/southern bank of Dnipro, the last few days, too. For example, on 25, they smashed a forward supply depot of the VSRF in Kardashynka.