Ukraine War, 28 February 2024: Regenbogenparade

Good evening everybody!

Was intending to ready ‘another telegraphic‘ update for this evening. Then this turned a bit longer than expected…

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Kupyansk-Svatove…by all the hysteria about a massive Russian offensive in this area, expected to drive all the way to Kharkiv… well, Ukrainians have recovered the village of Tabaivka, yesterday.

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Bakhmut… seems, the 98th VDV Division and the 11th VDV Brigade are, finally, spent. After three days of bitter assaulting - and lots of cuddling, of course - the Russian desantniki run out of steam. Read: out of troops and armoured vehicles. While they are counting how many dozens are left alive, the ZSU is clearing the eastern side of Ivanivske.

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Toretsk… no idea exactly who is it there… the 46th (Independent) Rifle Battalion or the 76th Airborne Battalion ZSU….but, somebody wrestled two nice positions from the Russians, the last few days. One in Maiorsk, the other on the Hill 190. Isn’t much in grand total, but a nice illustration: nope, the Russians are not ‘in offensive and on advance all along the frontline’.

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Avdiivka-Shahtarsk…

In my humble opinion, the ‘main crisis zone’ of these days.

But, and for the start, I must admit, I’m deeply in love. In love with all those wiseacres complaining the ZSU was late in withdrawing from Avdiivka. Because, now it’s becoming obvious this had not only political reasons (see: ‘Zelensky, Syrsky/Butcher or Bakhmut, or some third-grade cousin of one or the other… insisted on holding the place to the last bullet’), but is proving an excellent springboard for Russian assaults in western direction, too. Yes, even when completely ruined. So, think of the situation like this: had the ZSU not held as long as it could, the Russians would’ve been well to the west – already weeks ago. The only difference would have been that the ZSU troops would have been out in the middle of muddy season, with far less cover, and with as little artillery ammunition as they are all the time…

So, perhaps reading less of New York Trash and other of US-produced sensationalism, or having some clue about how wars work - might be of some advantage when discussing wars… who can say…

Anyway… principal problem right now is that the soil is rapidly drying. See: the winter is over very early this year, the mud is drying. And so, the Russians have it slightly easier with advancing.

Back on 26 February, after the withdrawal of the 47^th Mech, the Russians have secured Stepove. From there, they’re meanwhile assaulting Berdychi, the ‘northern hinge’ of the new Ukrainian defence line in this area. Further south, and from Lastochkyne, they began assaulting Orlivka and Tonenske (held by the 53^rd Mech). So far, the situation was simple: one Russian assault group assembles into a column, gets smashed by Ukrainian FPV-drones. Then the other is assembled and starts a new assault… and the Russians are losing so many BMPs, the last 5-6-7 days, it appears they want to get rid of them all - and that by the end of this year (plus mind: these are the Russians that brought one of their TOS-1-launchers to about 1,5km from forward Ukrainian positions, and then wondered how comes the ZSU blew it up…)

Thus, can’t but conclude, I do not like lots of things about this sector of the battlefield:

a)       The 3^rd Assault was originally intended to just go in to Avdiivka (and then with ‘two battalions, nothing more’), get the 110^th Mech and other troops out, then go somewhere else. Instead, the crisis is meanwhile severe enough that additional of its battalions have been re-deployed to this sector, and I do not see them being disengaged any time soon (it’s the 110th Mech that is back to the rear for some well-deserved R&R).

b)      It takes incredible amounts of concentration on the part of ZSU units, not to miss another Russian assault group’s assembly, so to hit it with their FPVs on time (mind: it takes time to bring enough FPVs over the target zone: they can’t beam themselves there…. of course, this would be so much easier to do with artillery, but when one has so many so brilliant allies in the West like Ukraine does…).

c)       …and that while ZSU command nodes are all the time under air strikes, artillery shelling, and drone attacks.

d)      Orlivka is a relatively big village, immediately in front of the new Ukrainian defence line. Means: if it falls, the Russians are going to have not only the Coke Plant in Avdiivka as an excellent staging point for their assaults, but also have lots of cover while assaulting further west.

e)      The only things ‘good’ here are something like: there’s a narrow lake stretching from Berdychi in the north, almost down to Umanske, in south-west.

f)        The terrain on the western side of that lake is higher than that on its eastern side. Means: Ukrainians should be able to see whatever is approaching them. However, and again,

g)       once they secure Orlivka, the Russians are going to find plenty of cover while approaching that lake – and then at its narrowest point.

Overall: it’s not like the Russians might need to find a way to walk over water. A few pontoon bridges might be perfectly enough, especially considering their vast artillery superiority….

Which, in turn, is bringing me to all the talk about that new ZSU defence line: some are already bitterly complaining that its construction began too late, and is run too slowly. Perhaps the same somebody/somebodies would like to check the state of engineering units of the entire ZSU. Every brigade has its engineering battalion, but all are in poor condition, underfunded, undertrained, and lacking equipment. What a surprise, most are serving as infantry… Besides, both the ZSU and civilian companies are working on that line for nearly two months now: it’s not like there is none. It’s just the same problem as usually: too few assets available to make it. So, perhaps the characters complaining should’ve gone there on their own, took some shovel into their hand and offered a helping hand.

From my POV, a much bigger reason for concern is the RUMINT that – just like the 110^th Mech – some of units (mentioned are the 21^st Mech, 53^rd Mech, and the 61^st Brigade) not only lack engineering equipment, but also training in constructing field fortifications…. i.e. that one of co-reasons for their withdrawals are their own failures to entrench properly. Which reminds me of the story we’ve heard time and again, the last summer: see, brigades trained by glorious NATO - but then only how to assault, not how to hold their new positions… hkhm.. excuse me, must be I’m coughing because I’ve smoked only 20 Camels today..

Further south…

Two days ago, I forgot to mention a Russian ‘banzai-attack’ on the eastern side of Krasnohorivka. A village immediately north of the Russian-controlled Mariinka. Meanwhile, the 3^rd Assault has managed to completely… erm… cuddle all the 100+ Russians that came in. Few were captured. (And yes, the 3^rd has a battalion there, too: have told you, this is a big brigade.)

Think I’ve already mentioned that the ZSU is back to Pobieda, few days ago: meanwhile, the Russians are holding only its eastern side. Further south, the 79^th Mech had lots of fun…. cuddling yet more Russian assault groups as these attempted to approach Novomikhailivka, the last two days. After all the cuddling of the last week, the Russian approach route to that village is now looking like the ‘Highway of De….’… erm… sorry… the Regenbogenparade on the Ringstrasse in Vienna, every year in June…

If my count is not completely off (mind: it’s been some 30+ years since I’ve had maths at school), this still from the 79th Mech video alone is showing the wreckage of some 20+ Russian armoured vehicles.

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Robotyne… actually, no news. In the aftermath of the catastrophic Russian defeat and withdrawal, the ZSU is mopping up the battlefield.

Thus, I’m going to use this opportunity to offer my apologies to the 128th Mountain Brigade for failing to mention their contribution to the successful… kuddling… of all the Russian attacks on Robotyne of the last few days.

Sorry guys: I thought you were further north… and further west… but, it seems the commander of the Russian 42nd Motor-Rifle Division thought the same - which, hand on heart, played into your hands.

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Southern Kherson…

Krynky… the Russians have so much ‘destroyed’ the ZSU bridgehead there, that Ukrainian naval infantry advanced into the western part of the village.

Tragically…. this evening it became known that in the course of an attempted landing by operators of the 73^rd Special Forces Centre on the Tenderov Spit, (at least) six Ukrainiian operators were killed in their boat. Mind: this is a very small community, people working very closely for years, and every single loss is felt heavily. Read: be ready to hear some bitter accusations and counteraccusations about this affair.

Boat with killed operators of the 73rd SFC, as found by ZSU troops off the Tenderov Spit, today…

….sometimes there’s no way to end in ‘optimistic’ fashion, no matter how much one wants to do so..