Ukraine War, 27 June 2024: Silly Season, Part 1

Hello everybody!

Got up today, and realised that the weather in this part of Europe (roughly: the joint of borders between Austria, Hungary, and Slovenia) feels like it’s already mid-July… In German, we call this the ‘Kochtopfwetter’: stands for something like ‘weather inside a cooking pot’. See: 30°C+ and humidity is at more than 95%.... (yes, you can literally collect the moist from walls)…

….and this then reminded me that thanks to ‘non-existing’ and ‘not man-made’ climate change, meanwhile we frequently have at least similar weather to that in large parts of Ukraine.

…Makes it easier to imagine what is it like inside trenches there….

***

This association with ‘mid-July’ is not coming out of nowhere: indeed, it was bolstered by the impressions when monitoring what’s going on both in the mainstream- and the social media. In the same, there’s something like ‘silly season’. Usually, that’s the times of July and August, when ‘everybody is on vacation’, and thus there are ‘no news’. Therefore, and for decades already, the mainstream media is then always fabricating any kind of sensations in order to keep itself afloat.

Nowadays, it seems the social media is following in fashion, too.

…and, hand on heart: at the time the events in the war in Ukraine are dominated by air warfare, which is ah so hard and so complex to explain, that the mass of not only ‘journalists’, but even ‘Experten’ simply can’t do it…

….well, what’s better but finding a ‘rescue boat’….?

Which is why, dear Reader, some of you might accept my apology for starting my ‘review’ for today with discussing this instead of latest developments on the frontline. You have my promise, I’ll do my best to explain the ‘why’.

***

Apparently, it’s meanwhile not only the practice in the mainstream media, but also in the social media to, due to the ‘lack of news from the war in Ukraine’, fabricate alternative topics. Kind of: how about reporting on daydreaming, just for example?

Like, ‘is Israel, which obviously does not need them, going to deliver its 8-10 stored Patriot SAM-batteries (and giant stocks of related ammunition, i.e. surface-to-air missiles) to Ukraine?’

(Which, IMHO, is less likely to happen than that the Sun is going to go up in the West, tomorrow in the morning…)

Or…Is Israel (read: Netanyahu) going to invade Lebanon?

(As if it would be ‘entirely unknown’, even ‘unthinkable’, that Nentayahu has no other options but to extend the war, no matter where, when, why or how, simply in order to remain in power, because, the moment that war is over, everybody in Israel knows is going to be the final moment of Netanyahu being in power, too).

Or…. Ah yes: and how about the mass hysteria spreading in Poland and the three Baltic states, these days? This developed something along the following lines:

-          One or more articles by officers of the Russian GenStab were published in the Russian military media (there are multiple channels and newspapers for such), discussing the option of Russians attacking into southern Lithuania and northern Poland along the (90-kilometres-long) so-called ‘Suwalki Corridor’ to establish a land corridor to the Kaliningrad Oblast… (must admit: have missed these; I’m alone and can’t catch everything, even less so when busy working on this one);

-          and such articles recommending the deployment of a ‘tactical nuclear weapon’ somewhere along the border between Germany and Poland, in order to ‘cut off’ NATO air power and railway connections…

-          ….plus, this or these articles were then followed by (repeated…) ‘demands’ by different of Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists for invasions of Latvia and Lithuania…

-          …and, as a coup on cake, the FSB-asset Trump ‘revealed’ his ‘plan’ on how to end this war by conditioning provision of US military aid for Ukraine by forcing Kyiv into negotiations (obviously: on Russian conditions)…

…kind of ‘unsurprisingly’, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are demanding from NATO and/or the EU to finance the construction of a 700-kilometres-long defence line along their borders to Russia (incl. the Kaliningrad Oblast).

…and (also ‘unsurprisingly’…at least for me), before soon, related analyses are appearing, too: The Missing Link…

…and so, I’ve been asked to comment…

***

What shall I tell you?

‘For the start’, I must admit that my first, spontaneous reaction was in style of, ‘WTF? They (the Russians) can’t mean that seriously…and they (Poles and Baltic states) can’t take that seriously…’

….and that was followed by, ‘oh, please: not again’…

Of course, one should ‘never say never’. Therefore, I’m the last to say that. But, as somebody ‘swimming against the mainstream’ for the time of my life, there are so many issues with such ‘plots’, can’t say. But OK… sigh… I’ve been a ‘party-crasher’ so often: my ‘reputation’ is ‘ruined’ and I’m ‘controversial’ for so long, thus never mind if I now receive lots of ‘flak’. Points are:

1.)    If there is anything that’s crystal clear after two years since the Russian all-out invasion of Ukraine, then the FACT that the Russian armed forces (VSRF) simply can’t run an operation of this kind. They can’t organise, coordinate, command, and effectively run a mechanised force of the size necessary to run an operation to ‘operational depth’ (see: approx. 100-300km).

(….and no: I’m not going to tell you things like, ‘even the Russians say so’, or ‘even the Ukrainians say so’, and then list examples: this would be entirely pointless, meanwhile, and I’ve got no time to waste.).

With other words: even if finding the necessary troops and equipment, the VSRF couldn’t arrange, organise and run such an operation like trying to capture that ‘Suwalki corridor’. At most, it could repeat the exercise from northern Kharkiv, where it became bogged down after advancing for 2-5km over scarcely mined, de-facto undefended- (and definitely: not fortified) terrain, and that against defenders that couldn’t shoot at the Russians while these were preparing that operation, and in the first few days of the Russian onslaught were confused by a Russia-caused break-down in their communications.

But, no: ‘much more serious military analysts’ (than I can ever hope to become), are serious-serious into taking this option seriously?

2.)    Sometimes the last year, somebody was so kind to count a total of 24 instances between Pudding’s ‘red button’ (the one ‘he needs to press’ in order to order the deployment of nuclear weapons) and the actual guys pressing the red button. Can’t find that link any more, but Mark Gaelotti has nicely summarised the (intentionally cumbersome) procedure in question: here.

….which is leaving one without doubt that it’s foremost Pudding who can never be sure if that would work at all, i.e. if all the 24 people between ‘his red button’, and the ‘actual red button’ would all follow his orders…

…which is one of reasons why there are well-substantiated doubts about Putin even thinking about such options… (The other is the NATO response, which – here I’m going to agree with Pudding – would probably lead to the extermination of the entire humanity… which is why this option is a ‘no go’ one – foremost for Pudding.)

3.)    ….atop of which, there are serious analyses (seriously) questioning even the size and operationality of the Russian nuclear arsenal….

…and so on and on and on…

***

With other words: yes, no doubt, in minds of different of super-geniuses in the Russian GenStab, and even more so in the minds of the mass of Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists, there exist such ideas like, say, ‘blasting the Suwalki corridor open by nukes’, or for ‘isolating the Suwalki corridor by nukes so the Russian ground forces can go there and secure the area’.

Never have a trace of doubt about this fact.

However, mind that,

a)       It’s the job of the GenStab to think and plan for such options, even when they’re entirely unrealistic. Bare essence of such thinking – loud or not – is that they’re paid to think about such possibilities, and thus have also to show/demonstrate they’re doing their job. In form of articles, for example. That’s like when different academics are re-inventing the hot water in order to demonstrate their scientific approach to their own work (ho-hum)… or when the Swiss armed forces decide to buy US-made F-35s and Patriots on basis of assessment that the greatest threat for the country is a total collapse of the European Union, accompanied by a total collapse of the rule of law and order in all the neighbouring members of the EU…  

b)      It’s the job of Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists to run his ‘hybrid warfare’ in all the possible forms. They’re paid (and deftly at that), to do exactly that. Between others because it must’ve dawned even to Pudding, meanwhile, that he’s sucking and screwing up in any other forms of warfare. While, he can always brag about his high success rate in regards of bribing political actors and thus subverting our ‘democracies’, in spreading angst and panic in order to saw disunity and scare our glorious establishment (see: oligarchy) and thus make it – and thus our politics – even more hesitant, reluctant, afraid to take necessary decisions than it already is. If nothing else, he’s distracting: for example, scaring NATO into ‘re-arming’ itself (even when this is run in such a ridiculous fashion like in Poland), instead of up-arming Ukraine, for example… Indeed: the longer this Western establishment remains hesitant, reluctant, and scared, the better for Pudding. Because the more options for future, the more of similar actions is this offering him.

c)       In turn, such Russian publications, claims, and bragging are working into hands of those in the West, extremely horny about making billions from NATO’s ‘re-armament’. Especially so at the time it turns out, just for example, the Polish ‘major re-armament programe’, widely believed to have set the country on the course to become the biggest and most powerful military component of NATO – is, actually, heading exactly nowhere. Principally because the government in power since the last year is currently ‘reviewing’ all the major contracts signed by the previous government – and that foremost with South Korea, while South Koreans, of course, are horny about protecting their own interests…

d)      ….all of which is causing another of that notorious/famous itches in my small toe, which reminds me of similar hysteria over predictions that the Soviets would advance on Frankurt in (West) Germany along the ‘Fulda Gap’, from back in the 1980s…

But you know: I’m damn for having the memory of an elephant, and the life is full of irony. And so, the ironic moment in all of this is the fact that this all – ‘Pudding’s 40-XTth threat with nukes’, the ‘Russian threat for Suvlaki corridor’, combined with Dumpf’s idiotic commentaries – is also serving an interesting, even something like ‘positive’ purpose.

Far away from any sorts of mass hysteria, it’s – slowly, but still – dawning upon different characters in the EU (or at least the ‘EU part of NATO’) that the alliance must ready itself to act on its own, entirely without the USA.

Because, thanks to the endless greed of the US establishment (read: oligarchy) the USA as a system of governance are entirely out of control, at least unable to reform itself. Therefore, one simply can’t depend on the USA – at least not for any kind of intelligent foreign politics, and the least of all for the security of Europe (and that: nope, not ‘even if Biden remains the pres’).

With other words: instead of focusing on what really matters – which, right now, and beyond any kind of doubt: is bolstering the defences of Ukraine to the point where these can achieve a clear-cut victory against the Russian war of extermination – the Western establishment, the governments it’s bribing, and thus thousands… no: ‘armies’ of wise people working for them are busying themselves with re-inventing all sorts of nonsense.

Like if humanity would’ve been completely free of nonsense - ever since it exists…

(….to be continued…)