Ukraine War, 24 May 2024 (UPDATED)

Good morning everybody!

Seems, it was something like ‘days of mechanised assaults’, the last 36 or so hours: because there are lots of reports about Russian mechanised assaults, and at least as many videos of lots of Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers being blown up (and that’s not to talk about all the bodies between them).

***

GenStab (the Russian one)

This time I’ll start with one of my ‘favourite topics’: the GenStab of the VSRF (VSRF = Armed Forces of the Russian Federation). That is: the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The top, overarching military decision-making body in Russia. The ‘brains’ of the Russian military, those converting Pudding’s dreams about the Russian empire into attempts to grab the same by launching aggressive wars. Also the ones responsible for all the military acquisitions.

Now… along what can be heard from Moscow the last few days, Pudding is literally ‘purging’ this body. Sure, everybody knows that on 11 May, Pudding replaced his minister of defence, Shoygu by Andrei Belusov, a 65-years-old technocrat – and a civilian. But: the minister of defence is no member of the GenStab. He’s ‘merely’ controlling its work (or looking the other way).

Point is this: when Pudding appoints a civilian to the position of a minister of defence, that’s something like ‘red flag’ for the GenStab. The body is dominated by so-called ‘traditionalists’: officers still heavily influenced by such like late Army General Gareev, insistent on studying and faming the Soviet Army of the Great Patriotic War, and acting based on experiences from 1941-1945. Arguably, that’s perfectly along the Pudding’s way of thinking. However, that’s also where all friendship between him and that body is ending, too. The reason: the GenStab can’t stand ‘outsiders’ - civilians - serving as minsters of defence. This is entirely unacceptable for them: they can’t even understand this concept and react ‘allergically’.

And so, ever since Pudding appointed Anatoly Serdjukov, back in 2007, the GenStab is ‘at barricades’. Now, Serdjukov did push some sweeping reforms, but only partially managed to realise them. Indeed, amid growing tensions with the GenStab, Pudding then had to replace him by Shoygu, in 2012. Shoygu was also a civilian, but ‘at least’ he wore a military uniform. Foremost, he reversed many of Serjukov’s reforms, and – oh, how important is that for the GenStab, can’t say – he reinstated the Soviet-style mythology within the VSRF…

Anyway… actually, and regardless of how much attention has Pudding’s decision gto replace Shoygu by Belusov caused, for me the much more interesting point is what’s Pudding doing with the GenStab. This is so because the GenStab was one of last (if not the last) major decision-making body/bodies in Russia still resisting Pudding’s direct control. Have written about this 2-3 times over the last two years. Thus, here just in essence: sure, ministers of defence were Putin’s favourites, but chiefs of the GenStab and all of their aides – not. On the contrary, they were resisting all sorts of reforms he was demanding. And if not, then bitterly complaining about them. And how bitterly…

Now, from what one can hear from Moscow, it is so that Lieutenant-General Vadim Shamarin, Deputy Chief of the GenStab (i.e. Gerasimov’s deputy!) and the Head of the Main Directorate of Communications, was arrested on charges of accepting bribery.

Then, Lieutenant-General Vladimir Verteletsky, Director of the Defence Order Support Department, was arrested. He’s another of Gerasimov’s close aides.

Must admit: I’m not really surprised. The fact that Shoygu didn’t manage to curb the (massive) corruption within the GenStab and the VSRF was also no surprise: he was as corrupt as generals he was supposed to control - which is as important because, at least according to unconfirmed reports/assessments, corruption is gulping somewhere between one quarter and one third of the Pudding’s spending for defence purposes. And, as can be seen from its performances of the last two years… well, the VSRF is anything else than ‘combat ready’, and even less so ‘combat effective’.

Now, sure, one could now argue the VSRF has never exercised offensive operations of the kind [and size] it runs in Ukraine, but still: it was supposed to be capable of running them….

Well, it is not, and thus Pudding is extracting his revenge. Shoygu is his friend, so he wasn’t arrested; ‘just’ replaced. However, top generals are no pals of Pudding; they are Gerasimov’s pals… and, so far, Pudding didn’t dare touching Gerasimov: seems, he’s fearing a possible unrest within the GenStab (in style of last-year’s mutiny by Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC). But, he’s removing his aides, one after the other.

Why am I paying attention and discussing this?

Because it’s going to be interesting to monitor whether (Pudding and) Belusov can effect any kind of significant improvement in performances of the GenStab (and thus Gerasimov), the VSRF, and thus the acquisition of new arms, ammunition and supplies, plus planning of combat operations.

With other words: ‘stay tunned’.

***

Ah yes, and a ‘PS’ to this topic: it’s with heavy, heavy, heavy heart that I must announce: Major-General Konashenkov was dismissed from his position as the top Keystone Cop in Moscow. See: he was the spokesman of the Ministry of Defence.

You know how it is: one must not love one, but after following his Göbels-like TV-appearances at least since 2015, I’m going to miss him.

A lot… sniff & sob…

***

AIR WAR

By all the public statements by Blinken of the last few days - widely copy-pasted by all of our glorious mainstream media without any cross-examination - the USA are still prohibiting deployment of US-made weapons against targets on the Russian territory. With other words: Biden-Blinken-Sullivan & Co KG GesmbH AG SPA continue excelling in being Zombie Idiots…

Hey! Perhaps they’re in some sort of race with Pudding and the GenStab?

Kind of: who’s going to make more of idiotic decisions about this war….?

Anyway… Yesterday in the morning, the Ukrainians (I’m never entirely sure, was it the 19th Missile- or the 27th or 107th Rocket Artillery Brigades of the ZSU?) - then run a severe ATACMS strike on the air defence positions of the VKS deployed in an open field (what a stupid idea…) near Klenivka, about 65km from the frontline:

The SAM-site opens fire in reaction to attack on it. One can see its 96L6E fire-control radar in the centre and at least four launchers around it.

….to no avail: the first ATACMS blasts the SAM-site with cluster warhead: small dark ‘chips’ are detonations of sub-munition…

…and then all the launchers do as if it’s 4th of July in the USA…

As far as can be said by now, the entire site is looking exactly as toasted as this 96L6E radar (ASCC/NATO-reporting name ‘Cheese Board’; see the photo below for the wreckage of the same). Apparently, two other S-300/400 SAM-sites were hit in similar fashion. One at Alushta and the other either in Obrizne, Mospine, or in the Perevalne area.

In turn, yesterday in the morning the Russians claimed to have destroyed ‘another’ Ukrainian MiG-29 at Aviatorske Airport, outside Dnipro. To me, this looks like if they’ve finished one damaged in attack of 18 April. This would be the 27^th Ukrainian MiG-29 written off since February 2022.

The Russians have also targeted the Myrhorod AB, in the Poltava Oblast – by Shaheds and/or cruise missiles, and that no less than three times the last two weeks: on 15, 16, and 18 May. I understand/interpret this as ‘PSU is using this facility as a forward operating base’. Probably to make short stops and refuel its MiGs and Sukhois before they fly combat sorties in the Kharkiv area. So far, only one PSU casualty is known: a member of the ground crew of the 831^st Brigade (which is operating Su-27s). This is the same unit that lost that Su-27 on 18 May, as reported two days ago….where there is another update, too: according to ZSU ground troops that saw the aircraft coming down, and the Russian social media, that jet was felled by a Russian Su-35, using R-37 or R-77 air-to-air missiles…

…where… pay attention, please: it must not have been a Su-35. Gauging by latest videos released by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, meanwhile the VKS has enough R-37 long-range air-to-air missiles to equip even its Su-30SMs with them. Like this example of the 43rd Naval Assault Aviation Regiment:

….which is, really, bad news for the PSU (Ukrainian air force) - and that with or without F-16s…

Finally, the last night, Ukrainians have targeted a Russian military communication centre in the occupied Crimea. First reports are indicating ‘significantly damaged equipment and many military personnel killed’…

***

Northern Kharkiv… Western side… well, the Russians continued bombing approaches to Lyptsi, which means that their ground assaults went nowhere. By best will: even should they ever reach the place… it’s something like 17km of build-up areas south of it, in direction of Kharkiv.

Do they seriously want to grind themselves through all of that….? …and that this is ‘viable tactics’, too?

Well, as of now, they’re still grinding themselves through the fields north of the place.

In the centre, they did manage to enter and take Buhruvatka, but as said: I’m not sure what do they want to do there. It’s the same like in the Lyptsi area, just with swamps and forests instead of villages.

On the western side, the last 48 hours, the VKS continued bombing Vovchansk: AFAIK, the place alone was hit by some 50-60 UMPKs – and that in addition to artillery barrages and MLRS-strikes on ZSU positions west and east of the (meanwhile: ruined) town. The PSU added to the carnage by sending its Mi-24 to spray and pray the assaulting Russian infantry on the northern side of the town.

Nope: this Ukrainian Mi-24 wasn’t ‘shot down’. It’s merely firing its Zuni unguided rockets at the Russian positions in the, usual, ‘spray and pray’ fashion.

Except with air strikes, Ukrainians have hit the Russians in Vovchanks with FPVs and artillery, and then the 82^nd Airborne (equipped with Strykers) counterattacked on the ground, from the East: word is, it has recovered the north-eastern side of Vovchansk, but I haven’t seen any evidence yet. Also, the Russians are still holding the administrative area (around the Kindergarden No. 6, for example).  

BTW, it turned out that at the start of this offensive, a Russian cyberattack knocked down the StarLink communications of the ZSU units in this area. Thus, the first 2-3 days, Ukrainians had to command and control ‘the old style’, with help of radios – and that while facing massive attacks by Lancets and FPVs, plus electronic warfare… ah ‘that’ about electronic warfare: one can’t get rid of it in modern warfare..

And another ‘ah yes’: people are asking me how are the Russians managing to continue assaulting here (and elsewhere), if they are suffering as heavy losses as Ukrainians claim they do?

Oh, my dear: that’s so simple.

By constantly re-filling assaulting units with thousands of mobiks. Their reservists.

The last four-five days, they’ve brought in so many of reserve motor-rifle battalions and regiments that my – carefully and patiently collected over the last two weeks – order of battle (ORBAT) of the VSRF in northern Kharkiv is meanwhile a pile of rubbish. They’ve pumped something like 20 reserve motor-rifle battalions into already deployed formations. Most of these ‘remain’ in the combat zone for less than a week. I say ‘remain’, because after some 5-7 days of combat, they are destroyed. Literally. For example, the 1855^th Motor-Rifle Battalion went in, was assigned to the 25^th Motor-Rifle Brigade for six days, and then… well, there was nothing left of it.

Unsurprisingly, the Russian social media is meanwhile full of reports about (quote) ‘colossal losses’ (these are, really, not my, but the Russian words), and calls for information on soldiers the whereabouts of whom are unknown, or such ‘cool’ videos like this one, listing (known) ‘200s’ (see: KIA) of the 1486^th Motor-Rifle Regiment from the Leningrad Oblast.

***

BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kupyansk-Svatove…there were Russian assaults from Lyman Pershyi on Synkivka….and that’s about that. All were repelled.

Kremina-Torske… The VKS first bombed Torske with UMPKs and hit Lyman with BM-27s or BM-30s, then the Ukrainian 63^rd Mech enjoyed watching lots of Russian explosions as a mechanised assault (5 tanks and 5 BMPs and/or BTRs) fell apart amid minefields and artillery fire (including DPICM cluster ammunition).

Lysychansk… well, sufficient to say the Keystone Cops were lying when claiming to have ‘liberated’ Bilohorivka (the one on Siversky Donets). Sure, the Russian assault groups have wedged themselves into the eastern approaches to the ruins of this village, but suffered such losses in the process that their assault collapsed. The Russians also assaulted Spirne from the east and south. Might have gained a field or two. The VKS was bombing Siversk by UMPKs.

Bakhmut…following days-long bombardment by artillery and UMPKs, the last 36 hours, the Russians (150th Motor-Rifle Division and 11th VDV Brigade) assaulted the Kanal District of Chasiv Yar on a wide front: really, from north to south, all the way to the Road T0504. They did manage to bring their infantry to the eastern edge of the town, but - as is meanwhile a tradition of their Group Tsentr - didn’t manage to enter it. The ZSU’s Lyut Brigade alone knocked out about a dozen of Russian armoured fighting vehicles. The Russians are also back to trying to establish a bridgehead across the underground portion of the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal.

South of Bakhmut….and I really have it hard to ‘admit’ this (even more so: ‘again’) – because of so much fighting for this place, the last year: the Russians (3rd Motor-Rifle Division, the re-built 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade, and then the 200th Motor-Rifle Brigade, 217th VDV Regiment, and 88th Motor-Rifle Brigade with 83rd VDV Brigade) have forced the ZSU completely out of Klishchivka. Yes, that was something like 1 division, 3 brigades, and 1 regiment - for one village…

Essentially, the situation is back to that from slightly over a year ago, where Ukrainians are in the hills immediately west and south of the destroyed village…

…sigh… no idea what exactly went wrong there on the Ukrainian side, but that famous itch in my small toe is telling me I need to take a closer look.

Avdiivka-Pokrovsk… The Russians (27th Motor-Rifle Division, 35th Motor-Rifle Brigade, 132nd Motor-Rifle Brigade, 30th and 55th Motor-Rifle Brigades…) launched massive assaults towards Kalynove, on Novoaleksandrivka (attacked by the 47th Motor-Rifle Regiment) in the north-west, and on Sokil (by the ‘fresh’ 15th Motor-Rifle Brigade and the re-filled 74th Motor-Rifle Brigade)… haven’t seen them gaining any ground, though. Indeed, ‘even’ the Ukrainian 115^th Mech  (the unit whose positions were breached in the Ocheretyne area, back in April) is meanwhile fighting well north of that town, just for example.

The 47^th Mech’s M1 Abrams tanks are back in battle – meanwhile modified through addition of the Kontakt-1 ERA (explosive reactive armour). The Russians did knock out another one, though…

Ah yes, and in the last two days, the 110th Mech claimed two Russian Su-25s shot down, both west of Avdiivka. At least one was ‘something like confirmed’, by the video here.

In the south, the last two days the Russians were assaulting Umanske, while in Krasnohorivka… the Russians have reached the western side of the village… in its south. But all their assaults north of the Tsentralna Road were, once again, repelled.

***

SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA & DNIPRO

Staromaiorske… following two additional days of bombings by UMPKs and artillery, the Russians launched a two-prong mechanised attack on Staromaiorske and Urozhaine. Seem to have entered the former, but still remain only in the ruins of the southernmost homes of the latter.

Robotyne… after four months of assaults, yes, the Russian 42^nd Motor-Rifle Division has managed to force the ZSU out of the village and to the higher ground along its northern and eastern fringes.

And yes, the Keystone Cops lied about ‘liberating’ Krynky, too: that conclusion is based on the fact that since claiming this ‘liberation’, on 20 May, they have brought in the 76^th VDV Division to that area (i.e. re-deployed it there from the Robotyne area).

***

At least one thing appears to be clear by now: since Belusov is around, the Keystone Cops in Moscow are lying more obviously than at earlier times.

Told you so: I’m missing Konashenkov…