Ukraine War, 24 August 2024, Part 1: the end of Free Roaming

Hello everybody!

It’s always funny to watch interviews with Russian citizens… or, shall I say: citizens of Moscow – because in Russia it’s so that there is ‘Moscow’, then ‘St Petersburg’…. who ‘matter’….and then, long, long after, ‘the other Russians’ – who do not matter the least. And, the ‘rule of thumb’ is something that as long as Muscovites and ‘Burgers’ are happy, Pudding (or whoever else is in power) is safe.

Sure, to many here in ‘the West’ it might appear as ‘absurd’ to watch their reactions and explanations like, ‘victory will be ours’, and that ‘victory will be when there is peace’. However, one should keep in mind: the System Putin has them firmly under control, and for 20 years has taught them not to meddle into politics – or there will be drastic punishment. Atop of that, it is indoctrinating them already at schools and patiently feeding them its own version. Finally, the country is huge, the population (rapidly declining but still) huge; very few Muscovites have felt the war seriously so far, and the mass of developments in Ukraine is ‘very, very far away’. So, why should people care….?

Besides, who said we here in the West can really say ‘we’ are so much better, and it’s on us to decide about our own future? The last 20 or so years, only 30-40% of those eligible to vote are going to elections; we’ve left our tax-avoiding oligarchy subvert our pluralist political systems, have elected entire armies of corrupt incompetents, and/or in the coming two to three months are about to re-elect exactly the same gangs in several countries, again. And, hand on heart: how many of ‘us’, here in ‘the West’, care about ‘Ukraine’…and why should we?

Summer vacation, new car, Olympics… all is so much more important.  

Add to this the systemic ignorance for Pudding supporting that subversion of our political system – because: why should our oligarchy and politics stop cooperating with Pudding, when there are such nice profits to make? - …and it’s rather unsurprising we’re on the verge of slipping into exactly the same situation in which the Russians already are.

But, of course, this is just another of my rants about the politics; ‘that’s Russians’ and we’re ‘not that dumb’ and ‘that’s never going to happen to us’…. atop of, ‘that’s not for what you’ve clicked on the link to the Sarcastosaurus’…

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OK, OK… then let me ‘review’ the last three weeks of developments on the battlefields. I’ll do so because, eventually, they’ve resulted in a ‘new’, and ‘interesting’ situation. So much so, I’ll start today with this – ‘instead’ with air warfare, which is to follow.

Causing shock and awe – foremost in ‘the West’, and especially within the ranks and file of our glorious politicians and the mainstream media – and instead of wasting their mechanised units for yet another assault over 20km-deep minefields and heavily fortified Russian positions inside Ukraine, or let them be bombed out by the Russian glide-bombs, the ZSU attacked where the Russians were not prepared at all. In Kursk.

Although (as widely known… or precisely because) he was planning for exactly this kind of eventuality at least since 24 February 2022, and thus everything was developing along his plan, Pudding reacted by ordering the VSRF to deploy only units from within Russia to counter. And assigned the FSB in charge of that natural disaster… erm… ‘anti-terrorist operation’.

The GenStab in Moscow reacted by deploying around 15,000 troops from a miscellany of units that were inside Russia and in the process of ‘re-building’ after suffering massive casualties inside Ukraine. Only partially re-equipped and staffed by poorly-trained conscripts, the VSRF failed, and about 5,000 initially-involved ZSU troops continued advancing for two weeks. Arguably, this was good for the VSRF Group Tsentr’s operations in the Donbas: there, supported by continuous air strikes deploying UMPK glide-bombs, this continued advancing in direction of Pokrovsk, seized Niu York and entered Toretsk.

There’s no denial: another of Pudding’s brilliant strategic ideas was working precisely along the plan… that is: at least the latter part, which was obvious at least as of March this year. The part in Kursk didn’t work at all, but: lets not go into such details. Especially Pudding-fans abroad, but also the few Russians reading this might feel offended if I express critique of their master strategist. After all, everybody knows it was not-, and could never be Pudding’s fault: he’s never-ever to blame for his own corruption, or that his own governors, his own Ministry of Defence, his own GenStab, and his own defence sector have, once again, been proven as corrupt and incompetent.

Irrelevant, isn’t it?

OK, then comes the ‘first best part’…

Before soon, it became obvious that the FSB can’t scratch together enough VSRF troops to waste them for driving the ZSU out of Kursk. One counter-attack after the other ended in…. lots of kuddled Russian conscripts. And lots of kuddled or captured Akhmats, FSBs etc. Correspondingly, the GenStab in Moscow began withdrawing units from northern Kharkiv, Bekhmut, and southern Zaporizhzhya, and re-deploying them to Kursk.

This is as ‘funny’ because,

a)       It’s a blasphemy! Pudding ordered something else!

b)      Alternatively, if Pudding really said the FSB (and thus the GenStab) must repel the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk without re-deploying troops from Donbas (as reported by some of top Western ‘war monitors’), but, then,

c)       ‘somebody there’ – which can only be the GenStab in Moscow – began re-deploying units from within Ukraine to Kursk, then

d)      FSB must know about this, too.

e)      Which, in turn, well, along this line of ‘news’ means that the FSB knows the GenStab is violating Pudding’s order, but doing nothing about this? On the contrary: it’s supporting it, and lying to Pudding?

Indeed, that’s imposing the question: how much is the FSB – or anybody else – informing Pudding about what?

Of course, it should be crystal clear by now that in the System Putin nothing anybody says is worth a pence. The only thing that matters is who has the final say. (Arguably, the Russian Federation is no exception from this rule: all the glorious ‘Western liberal democracies’ are ‘preaching water and drinking wine’ all the time). And, arguably, Pudding is the first to (regularly) violate his own promises, pledges, plans etc. Therefore, this is near-certain to appear entirely irrelevant.

…but… I’m a weirdo with that famous/notorious itch in my small toe… and ‘focused on Russia’. Thus, let’s lean back, take a deep breath and think about the following: sure, it is likely to be ‘news’ for many but, regardless where – in Moscow, in Washington, in Berlin, in Rom, in London… in Lilongwe, in Santiago de Chile, in Vatican or in Nauru – what a politician at the top gets to hear is what his/her closest aides let him/her to hear. It doesn’t matter if that politician at the top is a ‘president’ or ‘chancellor’, democratically-elected politician or a bloodthirsty dictator, the situation is always and exactly the same: in order to reach him/her, any kind of information first has to pass a number of man/woman-made hurdles. Sometimes, these are top intelligence services, other times closest aides and advisors, or top dignitaries of different political parties… at least as often it’s people ‘as simple as’ (usually: female) secretaries answering the phone. That is the ‘Rule No. 1’ in politics, and there is no exception from this rule.

This is resulting in situations where all the top political decision-makers are living in a sort of ‘information bubble’.

Arguably, the mass of information not reaching could be described as ‘irrelevant’ for their decision-making. However…

…if a dictator whose system of rule is based on FSB’s unconditional loyalty and support (in addition to a total control of society and all the governmental bodies), is then not informed by the very FSB that the FSB and the GenStab are lying to him…?

Well, yes, that ‘itch in my small toe’ is telling me that it is ‘important’ when the FSB is either hiding from Pudding, or lying to him about the GenStab in Moscow re-deploying units from within Ukraine to Kursk. Alternatively, it’s at least as important if Pudding is informed about this, but has (for the 719^th time) decided to overrule his own order.  

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One way or the other, since the GenStab has withdrawn (with or without Pudding’s and thus FSB’s permission) the 2^nd Spetsnaz Brigade, the 10^th Spetsnaz Brigade, elements of the 11^th VDV Brigade and the 98^th VDV Division, the 56^th VDV Regiment (7^th VDV Division), and then multiple regiments of the 4^th Tank-, the 20^th and 144^th Motor-Rifle Divisions-, plus at least one of VKS’ air defence regiments from Ukraine…. to name just the examples coming to my mind, ‘right away’ - and re-deployed these to the Kursk Oblast, the ZSU advance came – largely – to a halt. That is: while Ukrainians are busy overpowering multiple ‘pockets’ of surrounded Russian troops in their rear, the Russians began creating frontlines around areas ‘at least suspected’ as under ZSU control, if not roamed by its raiding teams.

A view at a monitor showing a video relayed from a UAV: visible is a T-90M from one of VSRF units recently-deployed to the south-western Kursk Oblast - after ‘receiving some attention’ of Ukrainian FPVs.

A still from a video made ‘somewhere inside the Russian Federation’, showing BMD airborne infantry fighting vehicles of the 56th VDV Regiment in the process of re-deployment from southern Zaporizhzhya to the Kursk Oblast.

Another reason is that the ZSU meanwhile has around 10,000 troops inside Russia. This requires a significant logistical effort, and that’s straining its logistics system to the limits: high-speed manoeuvring operations are not only rapidly exhausting involved troops, but gulping incredible amounts of ammunition and fuel, too (and that’s ‘just the ammunition and fuel’, i.e. not to talk about water, food, spares, the wear of the equipment and combat losses….and then an element entirely unknown to the VSRF: care for civilian population of the conquered areas). Moreover, the ZSU has only two roads into the Sudzha district on hand, and is yet to secure a reliable railway line…

One way or the other, the (unsurprising) result is what I’ve mentioned above. The last two days, there are very few reports about additional Ukrainian advances: ‘only’ reports about their UAV-units ever more frequently destroying the Russian mechanised counterattacks (and yes: usually in areas ‘well outside the frontlines’ drawn by different online war-mappers).

The first phase of the battle in Kursk is therefore over. Or at least, ‘about to end’. Before you all get scared: this shouldn’t mean the ZSU ‘suffered heavy losses’, even less so that the Ukrainians might stop attacking, or seizing one or another place. But, the times of ‘free roaming 10-25km behind the Russian lines’ is over.

…which is why I’m – ‘finally’ – feeling ‘free’ to go over to discussing latest developments in air/missile warfare.

(…to be continued…and it’s going to be a long, long day….)