Ukraine War, 22 May 2024

Hello everybody!

This was intended as a ‘brief’ update, but the Russian offensive is so massive and there is so much going on, this can’t be kept ‘brief’. Essentially: the Russians are assaulting along the entire length of the frontline.

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AIR WAR

According to Ukrainians counting and posting such statistics in the social media, 249 Shaheds were released into the Ukrainian airspace in the first three weeks of May. 242 were shot down.

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Kharkiv… Ukrainians… Syrsky seems to have appointed General Sodol in Command of the Group Khortytsia (essentially: ZSU from Kharkiv down to Avdiivka-Pokrovsk). Word is, Sodol is a ‘real old-style Soviet Army butcher’. Must admit, I’m skeptic about such claims: the same was said for Syrsky, too…but, I’ve got no doubt the US-Americans are going to be as ‘happy’ to deal with him as they are ‘happy’ when dealing with Syrsky… (read: no surprise the US press is NOT full of interviews and chorus of praise for either).

The Russians are meanwhile complaining about heavy losses and Ukrainian artillery superiority in this area: so much so, some are fearing a possible Ukrainian counterattack. That said, there is no doubt that they are assaulting with everything they’ve got: some 27 battalions of the VSRF have meanwhile been identified as deployed in combat in this zone alone.

In the west of this sector, they are grinding themselves through the fields towards Lyptsi. BTW, back on 14 May, when the Kraken Battalion smashed a part of the 2^nd Spetsnaz Brigade in this area, the Russians reacted by claiming to have captured ‘more than 60 members of the neo-Nazi formation/terrorist organisation Kraken’, too… They also ‘defeated the Foreign Legion’, eliminating 205 of its personnel… hm… I only wonder why 205…? Why not 204 or 206….?

In the centre, they’ve secured Buhruvatka, but that’s a pointless win, because they can’t get anywhere from that area: it’s surrounded by swamps and forests. Except they have lots of time and plentiful troops to waste, of course…

Vovchansk…is a big mess and I’m afraid not much ist left of the town, meanwhile…. the Russians continued assaulting frontally from the north, supported by UMPK strikes, artillery barrages and plentiful FPV-attacks. Latest reports are indicating that the Russians are bringing their engineering units equipped with PMP pontoon bridges to this area: apparently, they’ intend to flank the ZSU positions inside the southern side by assaulting east or west of Vovchansk.

The Russians are claiming to have reached the centre of the town and they do seem to have captured administrative buildings there. At least that can be concluded from first the VKS glide-bombing objects like the Kindergarden No. 6, then the ZSU doing the same with JDAMs or HAMMERs.

BTW, it was in the course of one such sortie that, back on 17 May, the 831^st Brigade PSZSU lost its deputy commander, Lieutenant-Colonel Denys Vasylyuk. Seems, his Su-27 was shot down by a Russian interceptor while approaching the combat zone to release its guided bombs. Considering high-intensity of operations in this area, no surprise to see MiG-29s armed with ADM-160 decoys then, like this one:

The VKS is targeting the area by up to 30 UMPK strikes a day, including by UMPKs based on ODAB-1500s:

….and then by Lancets: reportedly, 128 videos of their strikes have been published in the third week of May alone. The number of FPV strikes jumped up to 550 on 2 and 3 May each, and is averaging at around 250 a day ever since. Certain is: these are hitting lots of ZSU’s vehicles: mostly different utility pick-ups, but tanks and infantry-fighting vehicles, too.

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

Lysychansk… back on 19 May, the Russians claimed to have ‘liberated’ Bilohorivka (the one west of Lysychansk) – and that by the Chechen ‘special forces’ Akhmat and Aida. Can confirm that there was a big assault from the east, but haven’t heard anything about the fall of the place or withdrawal of the ZSU there. Quite on the contrary.

Bakhmut… Chasiv Yar is continuously pummeled by Russian artillery: perhaps it’s a subjective impression (according to descriptions by survivors, Popasna was much more intensive), but I do not recall having seen so many videos of the same place being hit, hit, hit, hit yet again by the Russian artillery shells and artillery rockets. And if these stop for a minute, the place is hit by dozens of FPV and Lancet strikes. Interestingly, primary target of the last few days was the eastern side of the town – ‘not even’ the Kanal District, which the Russians are assaulting and assaulting without respite, but (in the words of one of them) can’t get, no matter how hard they try. South of the town, the Russians are back to assaulting in the area where they used to have a bridgehead over the (underground) local section of the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal.

At least as worrisome is the fact that the Russians have assaulted Klishchivka from two directions (north and south-east), and hoisted their flag on one of ruined buildings in the eastern side of the village, back on 20 May. Must admit: this is a rude surprise…

Avdiivka-Pokrovsk… Essentially, no end of Russian assaults: the mass is smashed but they keep on coming. No gains in the northern sector, but they are approaching Yasnobrodivka in the south and might have captured the rest of Netalove. Three or four Bradleys were hit by Lancets, the last two-three days, in addition to about a dozen of different other vehicles.

Mariinka… the Russians are still assaulting Krasnohorivka and Hoerhivka. They’re heavily shelling Illinka and Kostiantynivka, while Ukrainians are pounding the Russian troops by fighter bombers, GMLRS’ and helicopters.  

Vuhledar… surprisingly quiet… for days already…

Staromaiorsek… Some are marking the place already as under the Russian control, for days already, but: well, then the same people must explain me why would the Russians bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, and bomb the place with UMPKs – and that for 10 days (at least) in succession - if it’s under their control? The same is valid for the destruction of this Ukrainian BMP-2 – by an UAV, in southern Urozhaine:

Robotyne… ON 15 May, the Keystone Cops in Moscow officially announced a ‘liberation’ of Roboyne. Hm…using the same method of deduction as above, and gauging by Ukrainian FPV-strikes on the Russians on the western side of this place, the 141^st Infantry must have withdrawn towards the north-eastern side of this village.

Krymky… back on 20 May, the Russians announced to have ‘liberated’ the place (or what was left of it). Think, this is something like 10^th or 11^th announcement of that kind. Haven’t seen any evidence for that yet: only additional Ukrainian FPV-strikes on Russian positions around the bridgehead. The Russian drones have hit a number of Ukrainian boats further south, though – and that’s including the tugboat Burun, hit by an FPV: this was set on fire (not sure if it was outright ‘sunk’ as claimed by some).