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Test Subject's avatar

Thanks Tom, great read. There are many bitter words to be said about the so called West. However, I believe the economic aspect of this war is your blind spot. You keep talking about "freezing" the conflict, like many in NATO/EU countries do. However, this is fantasy.

It is not possible to freeze/pause/temporarily stop a war, while a country is running a war economy. It simply cannot be done and expect anything else than the total economic collapse. Like many others, you are misconceiving the difference between colonial conflicts (Chechnya, Afghanistan, 2014 invasion of Ukraine) and a total war in Ukraine today. Russia cannot go back to a civilian economy and build up/rebuild the military, because it will end the current regime. The inevitable economic collapse and political vacuum, may lead to the repeat of the dissolution of the USSR, when 15 new, sovereign countries were founded.

Russia today, no longer has any advanced civilian economy. The mostly state companies working for the war effort today, will be completely uncompetitive. If you want to see what will happen to Russia's economy if it reverts back to the civilian mode, look at the Russian automotive industry. Today, virtually all cars are Chinese, at best assembled in Russia from complete Chinese kits. Often they are all made in China and simply "made in Russia" label slapped onto them after crossing the border. In at least one of the former car factories (VW IIRC), they cut the machines to pieces because they didn't have anything else to do with them.

Freezing the conflict must lead to reverting to the civilian economy, because it is necessary to rebuild and prepare for the next round. For today's Russia, reverting to the civilian ecnomy, while keeping the defence spending, will mean the total economic collapse and becoming a 100% Chinese vassal. All advanced (and many basic as well) parts of the economy will be taken by Chinese businesses and imports. Moscow will not be able to do anything about it, because they rely totally on the trade with China.

Last but not least, you are talking about the salaries in the Russian military and defence sector as if it was caused by some great economic performance. Russia is simply bleeding dry their entire civilian economy and the savings of their people. Those salary increases are still not keeping up with inflation. You are writing about it as if bankrupting not just the state but the entire population was not only sustainable in the long term but also a sound economic management. Madness.

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Peter Werp's avatar

"...….the USN and the EUNAVFOR are wasting SAMs around the Red Sea - to protect the Russian coal exports…" So true, and so stupid!!!

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