Ukraine War, 20 June 2024
Hello everybody!
Yes, I know: on this blog you want to read the latest news from the War in Ukraine. Well, sorry, but sometimes I cannot but disappoint you. Principally because the state of ‘western civilisation’ is certainly reaching entirely new levels of… ‘development’… so much so, sometimes I can’t hold back.
Mind few examples?
How about this one: precisely the third of the US public that can’t stop complaining about ‘all the billions donated to corrupt Zelensky’ (i.e. Ukraine) – which, as explained time and again: is simply not the case – is freaking out these days.
….and that over the ‘Russian fleet near Florida’ and ‘Biden’s Bay of Pigs 2’…!!!
What’s the fuzz?
Well, after his announcement that (in reaction to the US/EU/NATO permissions for Ukraine to use Western-made weapons against targets on [an extremely small portion of] Russian territory) Russia is now going to ‘supply arms to US/Western enemies… Pudding has sent a group of Russian Navy vessels to pay a visit to Cuba. The ‘fleet’ in question is including the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, a Project 885M Severodvinsk/Yassen-class attack submarine Kazan, replenishment oiler Academic Pashin, and the ocean-going tug Nikolay Chiker (constructed in Finland, back in 1989, and used for logistics support).
Ironically, the US Navy and the Canadian Navy deployed a bigger group of warships to monitor this ‘fleet’: US Coast Guard Ship Stone (VMSL-758), guided missile destroyers USS Truxtun (DDG-103), USS Donald Cook (DDG-75), USS Delbert Black (DDG-119), nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Helena (SSN-725), and the Canadian frigate HMCS Ville de Quebec (FFH-332)… plus numerous Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, and an even bigger number of flying and sea-going drones…
….and, between others, it turned out that super-turbo-wunderwaffe-submarine Kazan is so much ‘super-stealth’, it can be tracked by all possible means, in real time, via the social media…
Doesn’t matter. For the ‘best-informed’ part of the US mainstream- and the social-media this is a clear ‘stop spending billions for Ukraine and use them to bolster defences of the USA instead’-time…
As nerd and as weirdo as I am, amid all the ‘breaking’ and ‘alert’ news about this affair, and ‘the Russians within sight of Miami’ – I’m actually more concerned about somebody on one of yachts off the coast of Miami actually deciding to open fire at the Russians as they are passing by…
But, never mind: actually, this was such a perfect opportunity to monitor the activity of all the possible Pudding-trolls in the social media – permitted to go on spreading PRBS, always in the name of the ‘right to free speech’. Brought me to the idea to wonder: what would happen if the USA or Great Britain would have left Göbbels publish paid advertisings in The Times (of London) or The New York Times in 1942 or so…?
…in the name of freedom of speech and democracy, of course…
***
…which brings me to the issues of our governance, in general – because there’s another ironic affair in this regards: while the EUNAVFOR was celebrating four months of ‘successful’ operation to ‘protect the shipping in the Red Sea’ (ho-hum!), the Houthis have sunk another – second in total – merchant.
And now pay attention: MV Tutor (the video-still above is showing the first hit at its stern) was a Greek-owned ship hauling 82,000 tons of Russian coal for the port of Aqaba in Jordan… and it was sunk by the Houthis using (two) ‘uncrewed surface vessels’…
With other words: not only the USA - for which this operation is little else but ‘another classic screw up in the Middle East’ - but the EU, too, is wasting taxpayer’s money so it can protect shipping… not the shipping bound for Israel, or the EU, but owned by Greek shipowners and used to help Pudding avoid EU-imposed sanction for exporting Russian coal… while supposed ‘Russian allies’ (‘via Iran’, as some think) are using ‘Ukrainian methods and tactics’ to attack that shipping…
Makes me wonder how successful would’ve that EUNAVFOR operation be – without the EU sending anybody to the Red Sea at all, just for example…?
….or if diverting some of SAMs wasted there in the Red Sea - to Ukraine, so to bolster its air defences and prevent a situation where the entire country is going to have perhaps 4-6 hours of electricity a day, during the coming winter…
***
But, you know, it’s June 2024, and thus: why should anybody in the USA or in the EU ever come to the idea to think about ‘Ukraine’ and ‘winter 2024-2025’?
Irrelevant!
Both are not even ‘somewhere between priorities No 113 to 798’ in the light of all the pending elections of this year…
***
Therefore, that’s uninteresting. More interesting is wasting yet more of taxpayer’s money for all the possible useless purposes. So also for latest ideas of our glorious defence sector. From that aspect, the US-EU operation in the Red Sea is only ‘almost as cool’ as when the BAE Systems Inc. is bragging about developing a turret-less version of the M2/M3 Bradley, to make it a ‘heavy armoured personnel carrier’
….only to then add a 30mm gun in an even bigger turret atop of it – to make it a Bradley…
….as next, we can expect them to announce the discovery of hot water, followed by declaration that the installation of that even taller- and heavier turret is a ‘cost- and weight-saving measure’…
At this point in time, dear reader, I cannot but - and that for XYth time - recommend you watching this:
It’s not like all of that is ‘truth, nothing but the truth, so God help me’: a lot is irony and the story about ‘Bradleys sold to Israel’ is fantasy. But, the way things are done in thousands of such cases - whether in the Pentagon, in Brüssels, or few other places (not to talk about Moscow) - are presented in the best possible fashion.
Read: the characters there - and in design bureaus of most of our glorious ‘defence sector’ - really need a lots of fresh air, and a lot less taxpayer’s money, and that for decades already…
***
But, and again: you all expect me to remain serious and just to report about developments on battlefields in Ukraine?
OK, so… and please mind: this is actually a summary for the last 7-10 days, because, by all the Russian assaults and losses, and so much blood spilled and destruction caused… there is ‘nothing else to report’.
Northern Kharkiv… the much-reported Russian pocket in central Vovchansk was demolished and at least some 20+ troops captured alive. Additional Russian attacks from the north repelled: actually, the Russians are still holding only the last few houses in northern Vovchansk. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are busy targeting Russian construction equipment building a ‘defence line’ north of the town with their FPVs…
Chasiv Yar… good the Russians have managed to establish positions in the Kanal District, because now they’re continuously pounded by Ukrainian artillery and FPVs there. So much, so they didn’t get any further, the last few days. They did launch another attack into Kalynivka, north of Chasiv Yar, two days ago, but the ZSU is mopping them up there.
Avdiivka-Pokrovsk… the Russians are (still) assaulting through Novooleksandrivka and still assaulting into Sokil, and losing troops and vehicles like there’s no tomorrow… well, there is none for the mass of their troops there. In similar fashion, and while the ZSU is slowly withdrawing from the area between Yasnobrodivka and Karlivka, the Russians are still assaulting these two places…
Mariinka… the 46th Airborne has mopped up most of the Russians that have entered Heorhivka, the last week, but the Russians are still bombing and shelling the village. BTW, a good example for what happens even once the Russians do capture ‘some abandoned/empty Ukrainian trench-line’: they’re still eliminated by Ukrainian FPVs. In Krasnohorivka… well, the same like for months already: the Russians are assaulting, Ukrainians are cuddling them…
Should that mean this war is ‘not interesting any more’?
Au contraire, mon ami!!
Sure, Ukrainians have stabilised the frontline in northern Kharkiv, and have the situation under control both in Chasiv Yar and in the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector. Sure, the Pudding and his henchmen, the entire GenStab and the VSRF have proven, definitely, that they are unable to run large-scale offensive operations: that the Russians can’t, say, ‘breach the frontline’ (no matter where) and then ‘advance deeper into Ukraine’.
But, hand on heart: is that their actual intention?
I do not think so.
Up front: mind that, by now, the situation on the battlefield should really be more than obvious to everybody. The biiiiiiig offensive on northern Kharkiv failed, miserably. Indeed, if it has shown anything, then only that whenever the Russians attack in big units (which, nowadays, means ‘something like a reinforced company, a weak battalion at most’), they’re only making things easier for the ZSU. They are obliterated. K… kuddled in big numbers – and that for next to no or no gain at all.
The only Russian ‘tactics’ that ‘something like works’ are relentless small-scale infantry attacks, survivors of which then hunker down in whatever holes they can – but Ukrainian UAVs can’t – find.
You think Pudding, Gerasimov & Co KG GesmbH AG do not know this?
Of course they know.
Point is this: it doesn’t matter what’s the actual or perceived condition of the Russian economy. It doesn’t matter if the Rubel is losing in value. it doesn’t matter how many Russian oil refineries, other industrial facilities, air bases, or early warning radars get hit almost every night by Ukrainian UAVS. What does matter is the fact that Pudding is paying ever better and better. The wages in the Russian industry are rapidly increasing, and so are wages for those volunteering to go fighting in Ukraine. And not by a notch or two, but by 20-30% per annum. This is granting the mass of the Russians (and, I’m sure you’re going to agree: we’re ‘talking millions’ here) an ever-greater incentive to take part. Either to go working in the oil- or defence sector, or, and even more so, to volunteer for fighting in Ukraine.
They’re promised lots of money, and most of them are getting that money, too – dead or alive.
And if that is not enough, Pudding has it easy to ‘recruit students’ all over Africa – including Ethiopia and Somalia, meanwhile. These are attracted by advertisements for ‘jobs in security sector’; sent to Russia, given a week of training during which nobody tells them where are they going to serve or what are they expected to do – and then sent to be spent in another grinding infantry assault somewhere in Ukraine.
Right now – and for the rest of this year – Ukraine simply can’t get enough artillery shells, bullets and FPVs to kill ‘all of that’…(nope: not even Northrop-Grumman really launches production of 155mm shells in Ukraine, as announced a day or so back).
Therefore, conclusion is on hand: nope, this is no problem for Pudding & Co.
They’re perfectly fine with their usual solution: that of ‘freezing’ the conflict in an endless war and waiting for their next opportunity. For them, the things are fine the way they are. Even more so considering they can always be 1000% sure: Ukraine has no solutions on hand (not now and not for another year or so), and the West is going to make another mistake, sooner rather than later.
Unsurprisingly, this month the Russians have – significantly – ramped up their campaign of air strikes and missile strikes on Ukraine. Sure, nowadays, they’re deploying a lower number of ‘classic’ ballistic- and cruise missiles per attack. But, and contrary to Western oligarchy and the politicians in its service: they have learned many valuable lessons, too.
For example: nowadays, they’re rarely attacking well-defended pieces of real estate (see: Kyiv and Odesa), and instead pounding parts of Ukraine that are not as well-protected. Foremost Kharkiv and Dnipro. And they’re doing that by a combination of Shaheds, Iskander-Ms, and S-300 SAMs fired in ballistic mode on basis of targeting data collected by UAVs like Zala and Orlan, dozens of which are infiltrating the Ukrainian airspace every single day.
Cruise missiles (in combination with Shaheds) are foremost deployed to target air bases in western Ukraine, because Moscow remains… ‘nervous’ pending the arrival of first F-16s in Ukraine. But, and foremost: they’re meanwhile running such attacks almost every night. Which means that the total number of missiles and attack-drones deployed by the Russians is actually higher than in previous months, and thus the total number of SAMs expended by the Ukainians is much higher, too.
….good then, the USN and the EUNAVFOR are wasting SAMs around the Red Sea - to protect the Russian coal exports…
Bottom line: this remains a war that is bogged down, a war of attrition – and, between others, a war of systemically corrupt and incompetent Western governance against a Russian regime smart enough to exploit every single of plentiful opportunities offered to it. A war of ‘bread, games, and celebrity backsides vs. WAR, Pudding style’.
At least for me, there is only one question left open: in some of their latest public appearances, Pudding and some of his puppets have declared the Year 2024 for something like the ‘year of decision’. The year in which they’re going to ‘liberate Donbass’. ‘Defeat NATO and Ukro-Nazis’.
Sounds ridiculous?
Oh, it certainly does. But mind: because it’s crystal clear they can’t do so on the battlefield, the question is then: how else can they achieve such a feat?
In the US-elections of this November?
Thanks Tom, great read. There are many bitter words to be said about the so called West. However, I believe the economic aspect of this war is your blind spot. You keep talking about "freezing" the conflict, like many in NATO/EU countries do. However, this is fantasy.
It is not possible to freeze/pause/temporarily stop a war, while a country is running a war economy. It simply cannot be done and expect anything else than the total economic collapse. Like many others, you are misconceiving the difference between colonial conflicts (Chechnya, Afghanistan, 2014 invasion of Ukraine) and a total war in Ukraine today. Russia cannot go back to a civilian economy and build up/rebuild the military, because it will end the current regime. The inevitable economic collapse and political vacuum, may lead to the repeat of the dissolution of the USSR, when 15 new, sovereign countries were founded.
Russia today, no longer has any advanced civilian economy. The mostly state companies working for the war effort today, will be completely uncompetitive. If you want to see what will happen to Russia's economy if it reverts back to the civilian mode, look at the Russian automotive industry. Today, virtually all cars are Chinese, at best assembled in Russia from complete Chinese kits. Often they are all made in China and simply "made in Russia" label slapped onto them after crossing the border. In at least one of the former car factories (VW IIRC), they cut the machines to pieces because they didn't have anything else to do with them.
Freezing the conflict must lead to reverting to the civilian economy, because it is necessary to rebuild and prepare for the next round. For today's Russia, reverting to the civilian ecnomy, while keeping the defence spending, will mean the total economic collapse and becoming a 100% Chinese vassal. All advanced (and many basic as well) parts of the economy will be taken by Chinese businesses and imports. Moscow will not be able to do anything about it, because they rely totally on the trade with China.
Last but not least, you are talking about the salaries in the Russian military and defence sector as if it was caused by some great economic performance. Russia is simply bleeding dry their entire civilian economy and the savings of their people. Those salary increases are still not keeping up with inflation. You are writing about it as if bankrupting not just the state but the entire population was not only sustainable in the long term but also a sound economic management. Madness.
Thank you very much, Tom, as much as I am relieved that the front has stabilized to some degree, I can understand your concerns about the destruction in the hinterland only too well.
This war of attrition is so diverse, encompassing so much destruction on so many different levels, all important for the functioning of both civil society and warfare, that I don't really know how much longer it can go on like this.
The Russians are doomed, no doubt about this, but I am very worried that they will be able to bring about some kind of collapse in Ukraine before they themselves implode - after all, they unfortunately have a wide choice.