Ukraine War, 15 July 2023

Hello everybody!

Just a ‘quick and dirty’ one for today…

Generally, there are very few reports about what’s going on. Even Putin’s PRBS-machinery is quiet – though there are good reasons for that. The last four days, the Russians run large-scale counterattacks almost everywhere along the frontline: from western Luhansk, all the way down to southern Zaporizhzhya - and all were shredded to pieces.

As already reported in last two updates, the two Russian counterattacks in western Luhansk – one in the Kuzemivka area, the other in direction of Torske – were repelled rather easily. No surprise, actually: Ukrainians are well-entrenched there and this was ‘just’ the fourth strongest Russian counterattack of the last week. Foremost, I cannot avoid the impression that all the involved Russians knew they were thrown into a hopeless battle, perhaps to buy more time until they’re all killed or wounded and the ZSU has to replenish ammunition. The BARS-6 seems to have been slightly more successful in the southern sector of the forest south of Kremina: might have gained a few hundreds of metres along the Siversky Donets River.

North of Bakhmut, the attack by the 54^th Mech disintegrated a better part of the BARS-29, but the Russian Potok and Fakel PMCs then stopped the further advance north-west of Yakovlivka. Or Ukrainians decided to stop and wait for DPICM shells. Not sure.

The Russian counterattacks in the Berkhivka area were the second strongest of the last week, and have caused losses to the 57^th Motorised, but were paid dearly, and Ukrainians are still inside the village (as could’ve been expected when tanks are sent into an ‘urban’ area without enough infantry support, or when the latter is shredded to pieces by Ukrainian artillery). Foremost, the price for the Russian 51^st and 217^th VDV Regiments, the 9^th and the 1428^th Motor Rifle Regiments was horrendous (pay attention: four regiments were sent to counterattack, essentially, a single Ukrainian battalion!). Artillery of the 43^rd and 45^th Artillery Brigade is heavily targeting the Russian artillery deployed along the M3, plus supply convoys in the same area. Fearing a possible mutiny, the local Russian command is refusing evacuation of any kind of casualties: as far as not already dead, the wounded are left to die where they are. And there are hundreds of them. The commander of the Chechen battalion deployed in this area reported, essentially, that nothing was left to reinforce: gauging by the quality of mobiks around him, he’s expecting the command to, as next, send (quote) ‘miners with picks’ to replace losses.  

South of Bakhmut, the BARS-13, the 374^th Spetsnaz Battalion, and the 83^rd VDV Brigade launched the third strongest Russian counterattack of the last week, and have managed to push Ukrainians (total of four battalions from four different brigades) back by around 100 metres – but again: at awful price. The ZSU didn’t manage to capture it, but remains in ‘fire-control’ of the village and all approaches to it.

As far as I can say, the biggest Russian counterattack was run in the Vesele area, north of Avdiivka, on 8-9 July. There the 9^th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 1454^th Motor Rifle Regiment attacked positions of the 110^th Mech in force - and were smashed. Literally. Have seen about a dozen of videos from this area, and these are indicating a loss of 20-30 Russian armoured vehicles and over 200 troops… A similar Russian attempt in the Vodyane area ended in the same way…

In southern Zaporizhzhya… next to no news, the last two days. With one exception: I don’t know how many times they’ve tried, meanwhile, but another Ukrainian attack in Zherbyanky was repelled yesterday. Problem: the area is meanwhile so overfilled by mines, that Ukrainians can’t move a metre without de-mining support. And that’s taking time…

On the lighter side, a still from a video providing clear evidence for proficiency and high professionalism of modern-day Russian Spetsnaz troops deployed in Ukraine:

….and mind: he attempted to drop that bomb down the tube in ‘that direction’ - no less than three times….