Ukraine War, 14 February 2023
Hello everybody!
Hello everybody!
The last few days I’ve not only been busy, but also subjected to an outright campaign of defamation, harassment and mobbing by specific groups of Italian ‘intelligentsia’ — and that to the degree where I’m contemplating finding a way to block all the ‘visitors’ from that country.
I’ve got no problem with understanding that ‘academics’, and all other sorts of ‘good people’ who have never had a real life, nor have a trace of clue what ‘war’ looks like, feels, how much it terrifies, how it stinks, nor what it sounds — and who couldn’t make an F-16 from a T-72 tank — think this is a good opportunity to get me involved in what they’re excelling at: intrigue. ‘For mutual benefit’, they say. However, your intrigues are your, and not mine: leave me out of that.
Similar is valid for all those spreading lies about my person, whether because they’re ashamed of their own ignorance, or jealous about the quality of my reporting; and for those complaining I’m ‘spreading propaganda’. I’ve never challenged anybody, so your feelings are not my problem. And if you consider my work for ‘propaganda’: let me remind you I’ve never forced you to read and never chained you to any of my online appearances.
Advice: DO NOT READ. Avoid me. In a big circle. Stop right here, go and find yourself some other activity but to waste my time with teaching me who am I, how should I live or do my job, or explaining me how much better, more cultivated, and what a high-nosed academic you think you are. That’s no ‘misunderstanding’: I’m not interested at all.
Finally, two notes for journos:
a) If you’re ‘quoting’ me (like CNN and Mail Online did), then do so correctly. Nowhere did I call Vuhledar a ‘big, tall fortress in the middle of the desert’. I wrote:
‘It’s almost like one of those typical (even if completely stupid) Hollywood movies with a big, tall fortress in the middle of an empty, flat desert — just surrounded by fields.’
b) If you’re quoting me, then post a link to where have you read what you’re (mis)quoting.
You might be unable to understand the difference, and/or consider this for unimportant, but it’s important to me. Moreover, you’ve got no right to misuse and/or misinterpret my content — but a duty to let your readers convince themselves on their own.
STRATEGIC
Essentially, the problem remains the same like months ago: Ukraine remains overdependent on Western support for its survival, while the ‘West’ — see: USA, NATO, EU — is still entirely unable just to comprehend the scope of this war, and is still scared by Putin. That’s why, ‘Yes sure, arms deliveries are necessary, but we must not provoke that madman in Kremlin’, and that’s why, ‘here’s 5 Leopards, and here 3 machine guns, but no jets and don’t overdo it, Ukrainians’. That’s also why one is still getting to hear idiocies like ‘why is US wasting its taxpayer’s money to support the regime of that corrupt Jew who’s living in luxury’; demands like, ‘turn off the StarLink’, babbling about ‘Red Lines’, and of course:, ‘we must negotiate with Putin’. That’s why — and this is particularly fascinating — such nonsense can be heard from the full range of political spectrum.
Ladies and gentlemen, let me remind you that Putin is dumb, no doubt, but also no madman. He has — knowingly — violated the UN Charter; he knows his Dirlewangers are violating all the Geneva Conventions and committing all sorts of atrocities and crimes every single minute of their stay in Ukraine; he knows he’s violated the Budapest Memorandum, even ‘his own’ Minsk I and II. He might not be perfectly aware how much has he ruined his own army, but he’s still insistent on immediate capitulation of Ukraine, and still pushing and kicking his generals into this ‘biiiiiig’ offensive. If anybody thinks there’s anything to negotiate with him: lead by example, please. Go to Moscow, negotiate, and — best of all — be the fool who’s going to expect Putin to respect the resulting agreement.
Next point: arms deliveries…. Oh dear, NATO has decided to ‘challenge Putin’ — by ‘pledging to deliver’ 400 MBTs. Therefore: everybody and his/her next kin is now busy discussing ‘the next stop: fighter jets’.
Sorry, but that’s something for fools and horses only. Entirely pointless. Ukrainian Armed Forces need
a) a communication system free of an oligarch pursing ideology of his best pal, along which democracy should be replaced by privately-controlled dictatorship or at least tax-evasion;
b) artillery;
c) shiploads of artillery ammunition, or
d) at least shiploads of heavy infantry armament, like mortars and automatic grenade launchers (and a ‘sea’ of ammunition for these). Plus
e) yet more air defence systems.
As mentioned in my last update, have explained this already about a dozen of times, but: here you are again.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) are operating ‘in masses’: masses of artillery, armoured vehicles and — nowadays — masses of undertrained infantry. And nobody less than Putin has brought this war to its lowest common denominator: ‘either you destroy my army, or you capitulate’ — and that already back in April 2022. Ten long and bloody months ago. Correspondingly, there is no other solution but to destroy that army. The sole conventional (read: reasonable) method of destroying that army is fire-power: the tonnage of high explosives (HEs) deployed against the VSRF.
Cold fact is: there is no other means of warfare that can unleash the necessary tonnage of HEs — but artillery. Artillery necessary to knock out Putin’s artillery, tanks and other armoured vehicles, and the masses of his infantry — and that either well before the VSRF can cause yet more damage to Ukraine by its offensives, or in order to enable Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) to advance. Those scared of Putin’s reactions might want to consider: artillery is much cheaper than fighter jets, and thus available in much bigger numbers, while having a much smaller footprint than any ‘fighter-jets’, too.
Now, because even 12 months since Putin’s (re-)invasion of Ukraine, USA, NATO and EU are
a) still ‘slow’ (not to say: unable) to understand the amount of necessary tonnage of HEs the ZSU needs to destroy the VSRF, and thus
b) still can’t manufacture the necessary amounts of artillery shells (although, technically, this should’ve become possible already in summer of the last year),
- the alternative solution is to supply ZSU with enough heavy infantry armament.
See: mortars and automatic grenade launchers. These are even cheaper than artillery, and having a negligible footprint. They are easy to manufacture in necessary numbers: their ammo, too. And since even 12 months since the (re)start of this war, the Western industry is still not manufacturing enough heavier armament and ammunition — but has to import shells from such like Taliban-supporting China-ally Pakistan and similar ‘sources’ — it is important to find a simpler, cheaper, and quickly-available alternative. This is: heavy infantry armament. Best of all: no politician needs to brown his/her underwear about their deliveries because even Putin’s not going to pay attention about them.
As for why ZSU needs them: they are much more effective than machine guns, which — especially when fired at their maximum rate of 30 rounds per second — tend to overheat whenever engaging sustained human-wave attacks of the VSRF. No surprise then, one can see scenes like this one, where a Ukrainian MG-team ‘spent’ three weapons (and few thousands of rounds of ammunition) to repel successive Russian assault waves…
Finally, dependable communication system is necessary not only to get rid of dependence on a megalomaniac who is out of control, but for early warning and coordination of Ukrainian armed forces (ZSU) — at all levels of command — while air defences are serving dual purposes: protection of civilians and critical infrastructure in the rear, and protection of the ZSU on the battlefield. Thus, dear politicians: here you have your ‘humanitarian’ aspect, too.
Give the Ukrainians that — and that right away, not in ‘6–9 months’ — and, and that is meanwhile beyond any trace of doubt, they are willing and able to destroy the VSRF, and thus end this war, and that in the quickest and safest way.
Babbling about F-16s and A-10s, Tornados and Eurofighters, and submarines might appear ‘sexy’ — especially to the mainstream media who always likes to hyperventilate about sensations and ‘breaking’ news. However, it’s not only scary for own glorious politicians and a big part of the public (‘oh my, but Putin’s gonna nuke us if we do that…’): already deliveries of tanks are actually pointless because they’re wasting precious resources and time, while not going to increase the total firepower of the ZSU to the necessary degree.
AIR WAR
On 10 February, the VSRF run another cruise missile attack on Ukraine. The ZSU claimed to have shot down 61 out of 71 cruise missiles and ‘suicide drones’ (LPGMs/UCAVs) launched its way. Another stream of Shahed-131/136 LPGMs was released later in the evening: all 20 were claimed as shot down by the ZSU.
Now, this sounds like ‘great’, but it is not: it cannot be denied that the Ukrainian air defences are far from reaching even a 90% intercept rate. As a result of these strikes, four TPPs operated by the DTEK were damaged, as were several important power lines, plus a bridge in the Odessa area. That’s not funny.
Lesson for politicians and the likes: get them more air defence systems, finally.
As usual, the cruise-missile strike was ‘accompanied’ by interceptors of the VKS, which tried to exploit the opportunity to hunt for interceptors of the PSU. Haven’t heard about the Russians scoring any kills, this time, but one of their R-37M long-range air-to-air missiles missed its target and then failed to detonate before falling, almost intact, to the ground. If it was really captured by Ukrainians….well, then I’m taking any bets it was just hours before its was delivered to ‘innocent bystanders’ of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center in the USA (former Foreign Technologies Division), so they can study it and develop electronic countermeasures…
In the aftermath of numerous reports about Ukrainians spending their last remaining OTR-21 Tochka tactical ballistic missiles, last summer, must admit I was surprised to see two of these in action. Reportedly, they have targeted something in the Mariupol area: locals reported several big explosions, and the Russians claimed all incoming missiles as shot down.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Point 1): after blackmailing Ukraine (and the Pentagon) for two days, SpaceX has fully restored all functions of the StarLink communication system, already the last weekend. And, hear-hear: the ZSU can use it for whatever it likes….
Lesson for politicians and the likes: there are more capable and cheaper alternatives to the StarLink. They might take longer to deploy, but are provided by companies not run by megalomaniacs. Get yourself properly informed and then get them to Ukraine.
Point 2): No, the ‘biiiiiiig’ Russian offensive didn’t start, at last not yesterday. It’s in full swing — and that for nearly three weeks, meanwhile.
Point 3): as reported earlier, the VSRF is not operating in BTGs any more, but is back to operating in regiments, each of which is nowadays ‘reinforced through addition of an entire artillery battalion. ‘Everything goes’: in some cases, it’s a battalion of multiple rocket launchers, in others a battalion of anti-tank guns; only tank regiments appear to have a ‘proper’ artillery battalion attached.
Kupyansk-Svatove…no big Russian attacks known (yet), just ‘relatively small action’, usually involving the 138th Motor Rifle Brigade, VSRF, in the Hryanykivka area; but, the ZSU is certainly on defensive and on alert.
Kremina…I’ve got no doubt the Russians would love punching through to recapture Lyman, but: the last week, they didn’t make any significant advance from the P066 highway. Sure, they’ve been attacking a lot and along multiple directions, but by best will, can’t find evidence of them securing anything ‘new’ (and even they do not claim to have managed that). Essentially, their assaults running from Chervonopopivka to Zhytiivka in direction of Terny seem to be smashed to pieces every time they enter the open terrain in between. Further south, their 30th Motor Rifle Brigade might have managed to push the 80th Airborne away from Kremina by some 500–1000m, but thus entered the open area east of Yampolivka and Zarichne, and suffered heavy losses. If they made any kind of advance, then in the area of the Serebryanka Forest, where two or three VDV regiments supported by the 90th Guards Tank Division have managed to push the 95th Airborne and two TD brigades about 500m away from Dibrove.
This is where the Ukrainian shortages of artillery and ammo are showing, time and again, enabling Russians to ‘run amok’ with their IFVs equipped with 30mm automatic guns. Fighting in the forest takes lots of UAVs to control, too, and thus successes like knocking out a single BMPT are rare, and frequently paid in blood.
Bakhmut…General… remains the focus of the Russian offensive, and the only area where they were still making any kind of serious advances, until about a week ago. Ukrainian authorities are now prohibiting the movement of civilians and journalists into what’s left of the town: between 2,000 and 5,000 of are still inside, though. . ….as are at least three brigades of the ZSU, all ‘patched up’ by battalions from multiple other brigades. At least the Soledar Debating Club is meanwhile silent: probably because the StarLink is up and running…
Bakhmut….North… it’s silly to see claims about Russians ‘capturing Krasna Hora’ (or denials of Ukrainian officials that the ZSU lost the place), of the last two days, because they’ve captured it about a week ago (as reported)… To make sure: no, there’re no ZSU troops there: the frontline runs up the M03. At least since the StarLink is up again, the Russians didn’t manage to penetrate it, though.
Bakhmut…Centre….the ZSU completed its withdrawal to the Bakhmutska River, the VSRF followed, cautiously, with troops of the 106th VDV Division. RUMINT is mentioning the presence of the (rebuilt) 31st VDV Brigade, too, but information is conflicting: some say this is somewhere in the Svatove area, others it’s in the Bakhmut area…
Bakhmut…South…the last few days, the Russians pushed on the full width over ‘that hill above Klishchivka’ in direction of Ivanivske: reports indicated infantry assaults (always supported by artillery) lasting 4, 8, 14 hours; ZSU positions held out.
….but, have no doubt: there are reliable reports in the Russian social media that Bakhmut is short of falling, that the ZSU was completely destroyed and left without Ukrainian troops, and thus those still fighting are genetically modified Satanic transgender mercenaries…
A part of me is leaning towards trying to explain them that such are currently busy somewhere in Africa, or on Mars, but that would be a waste of time..
Vuhledar….the series of defeats of the assaulting VSRF units in this area is meanwhile reaching such proportions that it’s ‘openly’ discussed in the Russian social media. Where that with ‘openly’ is very, very, very relative. Instead about losses of four Russian brigades, most reports are focusing on ‘sending to slaughter’ of the ‘elite’ 155th Naval Infantry Brigade: like that unit would’ve still be ‘elite’ or no other units were involved — or like if they wouldn’t have continued their assaults, the last week (always with the same result). And of course, it wasn’t just one Ukrainian brigade causing all the losses, but 5–10 of them…
Eventually, it transpired that the 155th Naval Infantry was — just like most of other of VSRF’s Naval Infantry Brigades — ‘rebuilt’ with help of sailors from warships of the Russian Navy. For example: sailors from the guided missile destroyers like Admiral Tributs and Admiral Panteleyev: ships lacking compatibility with cruise missiles like 3M54 Kalibr, and thus useless for the ongoing war — and people trained to operate warships: they’ve got army uniforms, a ‘week or so of training’, and then have been gang-pressed into serving as ‘naval infantry’. Those wondering ‘how could that be’ are strongly advised to go a few days back and check my detailed explanation.
It’s a guess that the same has happened with most of crews of amphibious ships nowadays seen ‘neatly parked’ in ports like Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, as reported here: since I have some doubts even Putin could find a way to deploy them for assaults on Bakhmut or Vuhledar (I’m sure he thought about that, though), no point in ‘continuing to feed their useless crews’....?
That is how the VSRF is ‘solving’ its shortages of infantry, nowadays. The other method is recruitment of convicts: sure, we’ve seen the Wagner PMC doing this for months already, with a success rate comparable to that of Japanese Kamikaze-units of 1945. However, RUMINT has it that Prigozhin was meanwhile ordered to shut up and Wagner is out of that business: it’s nobody less than the Keystone Cops in Moscow (Russian MOD) which is hiring convicts.
On the high-tech plan: the Russians began deploying their LMUR PGMs to target tall chimneys of Vuhledar. Free along the moto: Ukrainians have their observers up there. Yes, dear Russian friends: I’ve got no doubt that this is how you think, and how the VSRF thinks. But, I doubt this is ZSU-style: at prevailing temperatures, ‘installing cameras’ is a much more convenient — and safer — solution.
In turn, the Russians are complaining about Ukrainian HIMARS-attacks (for them, everything is HIMARS, no matter of M142, M270, BM-27, BM-30 or long-range artillery) massacring headquarters of their brigades, and about ‘NATO-operated’ anti-armour mines, deployed with help of artillery. Supposedly, they’ve removed all the mines from the way of their (15–20 different) venues of advance on Vuhledar, but then these 155mm shells came in and have sown additional mines…. Really unfair, isn’t it? They clear a mine-field and then the….um… whoever is still left on the other side….is mining the same spots again. First time, ever, ever, ever this has ever happened at war…. (:rolleyes:)
One is left to wonder: why are the same sources then complaining that all their tankers have left their mine-rollers back in the rear…?
….ah, me and my rude, uncivilised way of asking open questions…