Ukraine War, 13 November 2024: Überraschungsei

Hello dear lonesome reader A!

Yesterday, You, Mein Herr, have complained this blog is now ‘endless rambling about genocidal Russians destroying apartment buildings, massive daily Russian losses’, and ‘f…’ .erm…. incompetent ‘Ukrainian generals’.

Therefore, I’m proudly informing you that I have promptly summoned all of them, all the executive producers directly responsible for this show: Putin and his Keystone Cops in Moscow; Zelensky, Syrsky, and their Buddies in Kyiv.

After my wife was so kind to serve us tea, coffee, and her famous sandwiches with ham, pickles, and cress, and following the usual exchange of pleasantries and small-talk, I went over to serious business.

Have lined them up and then dressed them down for over an hour. Have told them that they all can’t go on like the last few months. That the only reader of this blog is bitterly complaining and demands to read something new. Much more spectacular analysis. And that spectacular analysis demands spectacular operations. No (quote) ‘worthless Scheiß’.

Have told them that, for example, my only reader does not care about Ukrainian civilians being massacred by the Russian-made Shahed/Geran-2 attack UAVs, now mostly armed with thermobaric warheads, and – partially – equipped with TV-cameras to enable better terminal guidance. And when Shahed/Gerans start avoiding power lines, like here, then the Reader A expects some fancy aerobatics, with smoke and flashy, Hollywood-style effects, too. He demands fireworks to analyse, not lame incompetence, I said. 

I’ve explained them that the Reader A also expects them to run aggressive wars that are making sense: especially in regards of their geo-political and socio-economic context. Such wars must include serious military operations, and operations that are always precisely on schedule. Not a Sauhaufen like this failed big counteroffensive in the Kursk Oblast of the last four days. Told them I do not care about such episodes like when the 810^th Naval Infantry Brigade lost 10 BTRs, 30 troops killed and 10 captured in a single assault on Pogrebki, like here. That’s neither entertaining nor worth anybody’s attention. Dieter Bohlen could do better!

Have told them that the Reader A expects Blitzkrieg-style operations all over Ukraine, videos with tanks and others passing by at high speed, soldiers cheering and waving flags, aircraft and helicopters zooming by in the clear blue skies, Wiener Schnitzel und Krautsalat for free for all the public viewers, and that nobody cares if the mob still called the ‘Armed Forces of the Russian Federation’ can’t run, nor serve such.

Addressing Putin in person, I’ve insisted that the Reader A expects clear and steady videos of the Russians summarily executing surrendering and disarmed Ukrainian troops. No such amateurish takes like here and here. Putin promptly took Major-General Klimenko by his hand (CO 5^th Motor-Rifle Brigade; famous for summary executions of both the Ukrainian POWs and the Russians refusing to continue assaulting), led him outside, and had him ex…. erm…kud…ahem…demobilised. On the spot. Of course, some are now claiming that Klimenko was actually driving a bike with his staff when hit by Ukrainian FPVs, back on 6 November, but: that’s fake news. Just another part of shameless attempts to make things more interesting for you, dear Reader A.

So that everybody can instantly understand me, have ended addressing the Russians with, und lernts etwas Deutsch, ihr nichtsnutzige Jammerlappen!!!

Sure, Putin attempted to raise hand, but I didn’t let him answer: still furious, I’ve turned my attention at Zele and his Buddies. Was denkts ihr euch nur, I’ve yelled: it’s fun not to have to analyse anything spectacular enough for the sole reader of my blog to pay attention? If they are already striving to outmatch the System Putin in corruption and incompetence, and performing worse than their Russian counterparts, I said, then the Reader A expects something exciting, with chocolate and games. Like Ferrero’s Kinder Überraschung! Furthermore, I demanded crisp video takes of Ukrainian F-16s dogfighting Russian Su-35s, not some smudged shots of one or anther jet passing by through the clouds over Dnipro…

Concluding, faithfully in the name of the Reader A, I’ve reminded everybody that this is serious entertainment: not some nifty little war involving millions of people, deciding fates of dozens of nations, yet run by multiple groups of grotesque incompetents, and stalled in the mud. The Reader A simply does not want to see nor hear anything of that any more: that’s no war and thus no fun.

By the time our meeting ended - by streaming a video spot of the Polish Tourist Association, inviting Germans to visit - they all blushed and were deeply ashamed. Stood frozen there, like a bunch of little kids, unable to do more but stare at the floor in front of them. Not going to mention any names, but: a few were sobbing. Aware of their failures, they all have issued solemn promises to perform better.

Soon.

Indeed, the 47^th Mech has already launched a new recruitment campaign. One directly addressing defectors. To surprise of almost everybody involved, this attracted quite some attention: within 48 hours, there were more than 100 inquiries.

Having vented my deep frustration about displeasure of my most important reader, now to address the other 2,5 readers of this blog…

***

STRATEGIC

To the great relief (of Germany in particular), the fog caused by Trump winning US elections is slowly clearing. Essentially – and entirely unexpectedly, of course – turns out the Wisest and most sincere US President of all the Times intends to focus his foreign policy on engaging the People’s Republic of China in a war of economic dominance over the Pacific. And the Islamic Republic of Iran. And Israel should receive help to win quickly – through a complete defeat of its enemies, because these are all Iranian proxies, no grassroot movements, hands down.

Europe will be left at its own device: if it wants to continue supporting Ukraine and bolster its own defences, fine. If not, then not. Though, and in essence: whoever offers a better deal, might receive an offer in return. For example: if they side with US…. erm… Trump in his economic war against the PRC… he might award them with his thanks or something similar.

Ah yes, and: de-facto live during a show on Fox Entert… erm… News, Trump picked Peter Hegseth as his secretary of defence. Hegseth is a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan…and of Guantanamo, too…. Amid all the complains about misappropriations of donations for his PAC for Christmas parties, friends, and family, or axing drummers during TV-appearances, it’s a bit hard finding out if he’s really a ‘Ukraine-supporter’, as some claim, or not. Meh, misappropriating donations is not prohibited by law in the State of Minnesota, so praise the Lord: who cares…

Right now, it’s more important that the Biden Admin is going to provide the remaining ‘military aid’ to Ukraine before it’s out of office. Read: ‘fast’. So fast that the aid granted by the Congress in April, six months ago, might be delivered in January or February. In about two or three months from now.

….provided Trump, who’s going to take over on 21 January 2025, doesn’t stop it...

***

AIR/MISSILE WAR

Don’t want to bother you with discussion of additional operations of the Russian attack UAVs against apartment buildings around Kryvyi Rih and similar places. It was just some 90 Shaheds the last night, of which 37 shot down, 47 jammed, and two flown back to Russia. Plus two Kh-101s, two Iskanders or KN-23s, and two BM-30s or S-300s… All, strictly, military related, of course. Meh… worthless Scheiß. Which is my fault, of course.

Instead, here something much more exciting: a hit by Ukrainian attack UAV at the Aleksynsky chemical plant, outside Tula, yesterday.

Arguably, that’s just some facility manufacturing powder; and, the scene was captured by one of Putin’s poor cameramen still around. He didn’t organise better weather, and was late with capturing the actual hit with a fiery, oily, orange detonation: but, and as mentioned above, they’ve all promised to improve. Soon, the Russians are going to start delivering perfectly clear videos of their major installations being blown up. All taken from ideal positions. Is of particular importance pending the next Russian mass-missile-strike expected by Ukrainian experts for several weeks already.

***

How? You still want me to analyse the ground war in Ukraine, too?

Well OK. In…

…Kursk… by now it’s clear that the Russian counteroffensive initiated five days ago is not aiming to squeeze the ZSU positions from two sides any more, but is consisting of frontal attacks down three axes:

-          from Liubimovka via Zelenyi Shlyakh on Novoselivka;

-          from Korenevo on the ZSU-controlled mini-bugle south of Kremyanoe, and

-          from Khitrovka on Pogrebki.

Essentially, it’s run in style of ‘5-10 BTRs or BMPs + 50-100 troops’ sent into yet another assault, down exactly the same route, again, and again. Until all the involved Russians are dead or captured, or the Russians expect the Ukrainians to run out of ammunition but the Ukrainians then exploit the opportunity, counterattack and recover some ground. In the latter case, renewed Russian assaults are launched from new starting positions, of course. Hope, this is exciting and new, and to be found for worth the mention.

Behind the lines, the Russians are using Iskanders and similar tactical ballistic missiles to target ‘Ukrainian logistics’ – read: roads and crossroads – in the Yunakivka and Kaplytsya areas.

***

The Russian assaults in the Kupyansk-Svatove and Siversk sectors seem to have run out of steam, thus let me move over to the Chasiv Yar area. There, and when every other of their efforts failed, the Russians are foremost busy trying to widen their bridgehead over the Siversky Donets - Donbas Canal in the area east of Stupochky (south of Chasiv Yar). Seems, they are using the local forest to seize two elevations in order to obtain a solid base for further advance south of the town that’s their actual objective.

***

…Toretsk… what’s left of the Russian troops in the eastern side of the town is subjected to murderous and sustained Ukrainian FPV-strikes. Ukrainian FPVs are roaming the Russian rear positions all the way to Zalizhen and Shumy, too, causing severe disturbances in their operations. In turn, the Russians are back to attempting to advance from Niu York on Leonidivka…..with - surprise, surprise - usual quality of results.

One of numerous Russian AFVs knocked out by the Kzyzhak Police Brigade and the 12^th NG Azov Brigade, the last few days. Notable to the left is the wreck of a destroyed (Ukrainian) M113 APC.

….and another one, probably a T-80 – knocked out by a hit into the engine and/or a fuel tank.

***

Pokrovsk… where, meanwhile, this is like Vuhledar: due to the Russian advances, one sector of the frontline is ‘melting’ into another. Which is why the former Avdiivka and Vuhledar sectors are now the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove sector.

On the northern side, the Russians remain bogged down within the first line of defences constructed to protect that town, and nearby Myrnohrad. Logically, they’re using a better deal of their North Korea-supplied ammunition to randomly shell both towns instead of ZSU’s positions.

(…probably because some of the public in Germany is displeased by all the reports about intentional Russian shelling of Ukrainian civilians… )

On the western side, except for having secured Yurlivka, the Russians are pushing from Vyshneve via Petrivka on Zhoyte, trying to reach the southern flank of ZSU’s first line of Pokrovsk defences.

On the southern side, the Russians punched through and entered Sontsivka, north-west of Kurakhove. No idea who messed up on the Ukrainian side, but I’m ready to take bets, it was another battalion sent by Syrsky to patch up, and then left at its own devices.

…which would be yet another entirely new, totally unexpected development in this war - and thus, something entirely pointless to discuss…

Sure, the 59th Motorised is running counterattacks – principally by single tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, but so far these were insufficient to dislodge the assailants, the number of which is constantly growing as their commanders are sending ever additional assault groups into Sontsivka.

In Kurakhove, it does not matter how many Russian vehicles and troops the 46^th Airborne has killed, the last weeks and months: the Russians are inside the eastern side of the town. They have also reached Dalnye, 5km south of the place, thus securing not only the eastern side of the defence perimeter of Kurakhove, but starting to outflank the 33rd Mech. With other words: sure, the ZSU is going to continue resisting as long and as often as possible, but in essence: the Ukrainians are meanwhile withdrawing from Kurakhove and the area south of it.

The reason for the latter is that the Russian push into Kurakhove is driving into the deep northern flank of the 79^th Airborne, which is still bitterly resisting in the area further south-east. Moreover, the 57^th Motor-Rifle Brigade (VSRF) is making their task even more complex through assaulting Trudove. Something like this:

Here it is important to keep in mind that the ZSU has next to no defence positions, and next to no mines between Kostiantynopolske and Andrivka. Don’t worry: I’m not revealing any kind of super-sensitive intellligence. The Russians know this. That’s why they’ve attacked and punched through at Shakhtarske, two weeks ago.

Point is: the Russian advance up to the line Sontsivka – Rozdolne is now simply a matter of time. Indeed, I do not expect the ZSU to prove capable of stopping this push before being forced to withdraw to the line Novotroitske - Novopavlivka – Velyka Novosilka, sometimes in early December. Because there are no serious ZSU positions and no natural obstacles in between.

***

With other words: after all the failures in regards of electoral behaviour and the resulting failures in leadership – in Ukraine, in Europe, in the USA – of the last three decades, described again and again… and until there is a fundamental change at least in this regards, well, sorry: you like it or not, but no other kind of analysis is currently possible. Regardless if in English or in German: electing corrupt liars for the look of their eyes or the colour of their party, or because they’ve paid you to do so - or expecting sane people to continue supporting a genocide shown live on TV, every evening, is unavailingly resulting in an entire chain of massive strategic mistakes.

With corresponding results on battlefields like this one.