Ukraine War, 10 February 2023
Hello everybody!
Hello everybody!
Today I’ll start another unplanned update in a different fashion: through recommending everybody two things to read and/or watch ‘while I’m away’.
1.) For a merciless, though harrowing dissection of all the horrors of Putin’s war of extermination of Ukraine, and for what kind of bestialities are the Russians committing every minute, every hour, every day in that country, read this report:
Take your time, read and inform yourself — and don’t search for such excuses like, ‘it’s in foreign language’: that was a lame explanation already two days after the appearance of browser-translators.
2.) As for why are they — the Russians — doing that, what is their motivation, and who is doing what, I recommend Volodymyr Zolkin’s YouTube presence: https://www.youtube.com/@zolkinvolodymyr9639/videos
Zolkin is a journalist from Ukraine, ‘specialised’ in running interviews with Russian and Separatist Prisoners of War (POWs). All are conducted on voluntary basis, and with a purpose that might appear ‘morbid’ at first: interviews are posted on the YouTube so the Russian military authorities can see, first hand, that troops they have declared for ‘missing in action’, even ‘killed in action’ are alive. In that way their relatives can request Moscow to exchange them — because, if the relatives do not have clear evidence that the troops have been captured, the Russian authorities simply do nothing.
Why all of that?
So that Ukraine can get its own POWs back from Russia, in exchange.
I’m following Zolkin’s work since around April the last year. Yes, I do think that he and his team could do a lot better: for me as military analyst and historian, it’s often striking what kind of details about ‘armed forces’ and ‘military arts’ they obviously do not know, and thus ‘can’t ask right questions’. And I do find his contacting of relatives or attempts to teach them or groups of Russian/Separatist POWs how to use their brains to think — for entirely pointless exercises. After all, his own work is providing clear evidence that after 20 years of barrages of Putin’s propaganda, large segments of the Russian population have lost all capability of critical thinking, and are throwing all the ethics and morale out of the window. At least they have replaced them with money.
But, have no doubt, this is an eye-opening project: one can get a feeling for such topics like ‘motivation of Russian soldiers in Ukraine’, just for example. And, time and again, one learns something useful for such weirdos like your very own, i.e. for research of contemporary military history…
As next, I guess many of you expect me to comment Zelensky’s appearances in London and Brüssel, of the last two days?
Make no mistake: I did try to follow that episode. Even prepared quite a long commentary….but, oh come on: you seriously want me to comment about a president of a country experiencing such horrors like described in the article linked above, desperately attempting to appease entire armies of professional experts in self-promotion, ignorance, incompetence, and corruption…?
I’ve got a lots of thoughts and plenty of descriptions of this, but most of these can be summarised with: pointless exercise in futility.
Sure, since the last meeting in Rammstein, even I have created a — lengthy, and growing ever longer — list of all the main battle tanks (MBTs) different NATO members and their allies (like Morocco) have promised to deliver. Came out with over 400: foremost Leopard 2s, but quite a few T-72s, T-74s, etc., too. However, the crucial question is: ‘when’? Considering the mass of Leopards 2 in question is in such a poor condition they’re going to need 6–9 months of rebuilts and overhauls… which is not to talk about their possible upgrades to standards like Leopard 2A6 (as would be necessary for the war in Ukraine, except half NATO is keen to see yet more Ukrainian soldiers getting killed?)…. The answer is: not very soon. Thus, sorry, right now discussing this is simply making no sense. At least not to me.
My standpoint was (already in March last year), and remains: what Ukraine needs is artillery and artillery ammunition. Lots of artillery, and even more ammunition. Followed by air defence systems and a dependable communication system.
Another of my standpoints was, and remains, that NATO is lagging (at last) a year behind in delivering anything at all, and is always going to deliver far too little. Indeed, that the characters in charge of NATO cannot even comprehend the horrors Ukraine is going through, or what’s at stake in this war — to the degree that they have no trace of clue about how to handle Putin, either.
I’ve tried to explain, to the length, in multiple reports and several interviews for the media the ‘whys’, and I’m not going to continue wasting your time with re-explaining the same all over again.
Ah yes… ‘that’ with the dependable communication system….? Yes, that is a new addition. And then one, which, I’m afraid, is going to make it clear to all of well-meant Ukrainians with what kind of narcissistic war-profiteers are you all dealing with, in the West. And that while being taught about corruption of Ukrainian oligarchy and endemic corruption of Ukrainian authorities… The hope is slim but, it might help some in the West understand what kind of jerks are they electing to power, or making rich while buying their famed products, too…
Two days ago, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that, complaining that Ukraine has ‘weaponised’ its StarLink satellite communication system, Elon Musk’s company SpaceX has restricted the ZSU’s access to the same. This did ‘ring a few bells’ in my head: if nothing else, it might explain how comes the Russians took Ukrainians north of Bakhmut by surprise and advanced on the M03, the last three days (see below for details). The president of SpaceX, Shotwell, explained this decision with StarLink being ‘meant for humanitarian purposes….communication in hospitals, banks, and on the frontlines’, but ‘using StarLink in drones’ is ‘outside the scope of he agreement’….
Now, by side all of Musk’s absurdities — many of which are solely, yet directly comparable with Putin’s behaviour. By side that back in October he was complaining about SpaceX losing money on deployment of the StarLink in Ukraine, even if it turned out the bills for terminals that were in use were regularly serviced (and that on time): Ukraine simply didn’t need all the 25,000 terminals he’s sent (‘only’ about 45% of them). And, by side that this is exposing Musk as both a greedy war-profiteer and somebody with negotiating skills comparable to those of Erdogan (see: idiot): i.e. as another oligarch….
The point is this: the reason for Musk mimicking Putin when sending Shotwell to complain in the public, is little else but his jealousy. He’s super-smart, but now it turns out Ukrainians are smarter? These sneaky sons of a gun have started installing StarLink terminals on their UAVs, thus allowing for widespread use of jamming-resistant control channels for their other UAVs. Blasphemy!
Of course, a StarLink terminal is relatively large and heavy, and thus can be installed on large UAVs only. Rather unsurprisingly, some of such UAVs have been shot down and captured by the Russians, who, apparently, then complained to Musk…
…and now an oligarch who got too powerful, is blackmailing a country of 40 million fully exposed to a war of extermination run by another oligarch… and this came just at the time the Russians began deploying their counter-UAV quadcopters and jammers in the Bakhmut area, causing a loss of up to 100 Ukrainian UAVs since early January.
Hope, Ukraine might learn a useful lesson from this, and in the future do its best to avoid dependence on megalomaniacs.
Finally, let me address something else that is, slowly, starting to make me worried. Over the last few days, there have been ever more reports from the ranks of Separatists, about the ZSU ‘deploying chemical weapons’ in combat against them. To make sure: that’s little else but most primitive sort of dumbest propaganda imaginable. Describing it as ‘distilled idiotism’ would be an understatement.
Why? The reported ‘amounts’ of chemical weapons, the reported methods of their storage, and the reported methods of their deployment are so absurd that people in my position can only ridicule all of this.
BUT, and that’s the point: having monitored similar behaviour by both the Russians and Assadists in Syria of 2015–2019, and after reading thoughts of one of Separatist tactical commanders about necessity to strike places like Vuhledar with nuclear weapons…. Well, I cannot avoid issuing a warning: in the case of the War in Syria, such behaviour of ‘emitting propaganda nonsense about deployment of chemical weapons by Syrian insurgents’ turned out to be a pattern of actual use of chemical weapons by Putin’s allies, Assadists.
Bottom line: there’s a lots of things in this war worth paying closer attention — instead of monitoring the Western politics of useless pledges and belated promises. If nothing else, mind that in 1994 the West issued a written guarantee for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, in exchange for Ukraine dismantling its nuclear arsenal — and now see how and where did that end…
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kremina…The Russians spent the last few days pushing from Chernopopivka towards Ivanivka, from Kremina on Yampolivka, via Dibrova on Torske, and from Kremina towards the Siversky Donets and Serbryanka in the south. Net result: they might have managed to establish new positions up to 500 metres forward of their former positions, at least in a few places, though while losing a number of troops and vehicles — including (at least) one of vaunted BMPT Terminators…
Siversk…as mentioned earlier, the Russians have captured Bilohorivka. That’s about 1374% sure — and the reason why they’ve continued assaulting it the last 4–5 days, too…
Bakhmut… North: the Russians have captured Mykolaivka and are meanwhile pushing from there on Vasyukivka, Fedorivka, and Rozdolivka.
Bakhmut… northern outskirts: while the Soledar Debating Club seems to have sorted out its differences (at least for the time being), the loss of lots of UAVs, blinded HQ of the local garrison, repeated deployment of TOS-1 multiple rocket launchers, the loss of two TD battalions to incessant Russian infantry assaults are having their effects. Yes, ‘Bakhmut holds’, though the section of the M03 directly north of the town is under the Russian control, and Putin’s Dirlewangers are meanwhile pushing across it towards the south. The Russians are in control over most of Krasna Hora, and pushing through Paraskovivka in direction of the local hospital, too.
Bakhmut….East: if there is anything positive to report from Bakhmut any more, than that the ZSU is running an organised withdrawal to the Bakhmutska River, while still causing heavy losses to the Russians; and that….
Bakhmut…South: Ukrainians have managed to stop the Russian onslaught on Stupochky, Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske, the last few days, but the Russians are still in ‘fire control’ over the T0504.
With other words: the road from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut remains the last venue for providing reinforcements and supplies to the defenders inside the town.
The action on battlefields further south is summarised rather quickly: the Russians attack — for example in the Avdiivka area, in the Pervomaiske area, in the Marinka area…. — lose a few vehicles and another bunch of troops, and then withdraw.
Vuhledar…. Perhaps under impression of that account from Bakhmut linked above, I’ve actually got no words about what kind of a freaking mess have the glorious commanders of the 58th CAA, VSRF created south of Vuhledar. I find there is no way to describe the scenes there and what are these beasts doing to their own troops — but with help of bitter sarcasm. From that point of view, conclusion is simple — and cheerful: the VSRF must be running one of its famous Military Decathlon Games on behalf of Krasnaya Zvezda TV there!
Correspondingly, and as reported earlier … the gold medal in the prestigious discipline ‘1000 Metres Losing Tanks and Troops’ was quickly secured by the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, closely followed by the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade. Almost unsurprisingly, what’s left of the former is now leading in the discipline ‘Surrendering in Droves for Men’, too. However, few days ago a new, an unexpected contestant appeared on the scene in form of the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade, including the Alga Battalion staffed by Volga Tatars. This unit is currently leading in such highly complex disciplines like ‘Find every Mine, Freestyle’ (photo below) and ‘Drive over your Comrades for Money’. The VKS was lagging far behind, early on, but appeared rapidly catching since one of its Mi-24 or Mi-35 helicopter gunships was shot down. Then its team was disqualified because it appeared on the scene east of Kharkiv: too far away from Vuhledar, and thus out of limits. Moreover, local VSRF commanders were deeply disappointed by survival of the crew that was picked up by a Mi-8: after all, they’re insistent on securing a win in the discipline ‘No Survivors, Outdoor’.
Today, there is great trepidation in expectation of the appearance of multiple separatist teams. After all, such like the Kaskad and Kalmius Battalions, and the 11th Motor Rifle Regiment underwent intensive training in ‘Suicide Assaults for Idiots, Russian Style’, the last eleven months: this was so successful that most of units in question had to be completely re-built for the fourth time…
Viewers are advised to supply themselves with sufficient coke, hotdogs and popcorn before continuing to follow the VSRF’s performance in ‘Bolstering Failures into Oblivion’…