Ukraine War, 1 September 2024: Vanity Fair
Hello everybody!
For the start today, a message for few people that complained my updates are growing ever bigger and more complex to read… indeed: that they have not read them to the end because they’re too long. Well, ladies and gentlemen: your options are very simple, actually:
Now to what matters… today is Sunday, and thus the time for a ‘slow morning with coffee and cigarettes, while browsing news’… at least as long as one can afford that, of course, and no Russian shells are blowing one up….
Point is: this is, unavailingly, bringing one to the ‘collision course’ with reports about Zelensky (i.e. the Zelensky Administration),
a) sending a list of targets inside Russia it wants to strike with US/Western weapons but is banned, to Washington, Brussel, Berlin, London, Paris etc…
b) preparing a peace-plan which it wants to share with Biden Admin, Harris, and Trump; and similar.
That the constitutional incompetence of Western ‘decision-makers’ (read: politicians systemically bribed by oligarchy to administer in their interest) is meanwhile breaking all the records, is nothing new. Essentially, characters like Trio Fantasticus in the White House are behaving like if back in May-June 1940 Roosevelt would have done his utmost to make peace with Hitler because that was in interest of JP Morgan, Standard Oil, Exxon, or Ford; and, because Roosevelt was acting that way, then Churchill became horny about saving interests of British Petroleum and convincing France to surrender its North to the Nazi-German invasion… while all the other countries in western Europe would’ve been gearing up for an invasion by the Mars People…
….always for exactly the same reason: because ‘that’s the evil we know’… indeed: the ‘lesser evil’…
….just like it was ‘lesser evil’ to let Pudding and the IRGC ‘save Bashar’ by driving half the Syrian population out of the country, or ‘bringing peace to the Middle East’ through supporting Zionist designs for annexation of Jerusalem and negotiating the ‘Abrahamic Accords’...?
Considering these glorious examples of Western peace-making and nation-building, is it really a surprise if the Zelensky Admin is in such a panic mode that it’s feeling compelled to waste its time with preparing ‘peace plans’ to appease armies of corrupt and incompetent Western idiots – although having about 40 million (+) other, far more important things to do?
…simply because it’s crystal clear that the only involved character that can make any kind of ‘peace’ in Ukraine is Pudding, but - except for Captains, Lieutenants, and thousands of non-commissioned ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, supported by thousands of Western volunteers, and donations from ‘the people’ – there’s next to nobody seriously trying to force him to do so?
Reminds me that back in the 19th Century, there were still people like Charles Dickens and William Thackeray around, to describe all the resulting disasters. Alas, their publications shocked lots of people: especially those in charge. Unsurprisingly, spin-offs of Jane Austen’s works were far more popular already then, not to talk about nowadays – when several are driven ab absurdum: why face reality (and do something about it), if it’s so much cosier to get lost in nonsensical fantasy?
Bonus: that’s the lesser evil, too.
Ironically, it’s not much different in regards of reporting about what’s going on around different battlefields of the war in Ukraine… where, yes, I’m still ‘having a problem’ with declaring the ongoing conflict the ‘Third World War’ – despite System Putin’s subversion of our politicals through corruption, fake news, and the growing number of sabotage operations by the GRU and FSB against selected factories, communication cables, NATO-bases, just for example. Not to talk about what are the Russians, plus the PR-Chinese doing all over Africa, Asia, Middle East, and a better part of Latin America…
After all: what’s the point of calling this war what it is, and thus adding oil to the fire of conspiracy theoreticians, considering our noble oligarchy – and thus our glorious politics – is insistent on not considering it for such?
…because it’s a lesser evil….sigh… and this all is just another vanity fair…
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STRATEGIC
Venezuela has handed over two Colombian citizens that were returning from serving with the ZSU in Ukraine - to Russia.
For the records, the former I and II Army Corps (essentially: armed forces of the ‘Donetsk Putin’s….erm… People’s Republic’ and the ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’) have been re-organised. Henceforth, they are wearing the designations of the 51st and 3rd Combined Arms Armies, respectively…
…is a bi-product of Pudding successfully liberating both republics of their male population, and replacing these by true Russians…
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AIR/MISSILE WAR
After Zelensky fired Oleschuk, Syrsky appointed Lieutenant-General Anatoly Krovonozhko as acting-CinC PSU. I.e. the decision is not yet final…and we’ll see if Krovonozhko can reform the service. Meanwhile, Germany has delivered another IRIS-T SAM-system to Ukraine. If my memory is of any use, should be the 6th in total.
On 30 August, the PSU claimed to have shot down 12 Shaheds and jammed 4 others; yesterday (31 August), the PSU claimed to have shot down 24 out of 25 Shaheds. This morning, the PSU claimed another 8 out of 11 Shaheds and 0 out of 1 Iskander-Ms fired at Ukraine.
According to the Russian social media, Ukraine has released well over 100 UAVs into the Russian airspace, the last 36 or so hours. There are reports about strikes in Lipetsk, Oriol, Bryansk, Tula, Belgorod and Voronezh.
Regarding ‘results’: for example, there was a large fire in a shopping mall in Belgorod. Also hit was the Katonoye oil refinery, outside Moscow. Reportedly, the one or two UAVs there have caused a ‘very complex fire’- which is still burning. The last night, Ukrainian UAVs have hit the Kashira thermal power plant (outside Moscow), and the Konakinska hydroelectric power plant (outside Tver; that’s the 8th biggest in the Russian Federation), and the GRES gas distribution centre (also outside Tver): all three were set afire. Another facility hit was the HOP Honeywell: the largest first-level oil processing factory in Russia. Of course, the two major POL-depots in Rostov, hit 13 and 4 days ago, respectively, were still burning as of the last evening…
This attack seems to be still going on. The last night a major detonation was reported from the Moscow-Vnukovo IAP, and a power-outage was reported from the Moscow’s train system and the Kurovskoye route (plus a traffic jam in the Kazan area). The Katonoye oil refinery (just some 16km from Kremlin) was hit again (video-still below). This morning, the Keystone Cops in Moscow reported to have shot down 158 UAVs over the last night alone, while average Russian railway workers put all the blame on Africans imported and contracted to help them…
Really, these Ukrainian sons of a gun: if they continue like this Indians and the Greeks shipping the Russian oil from Russia to India are going to increase their profit by only US%2 billion this season… and then Exxon-Mobile and its oil-fields in Kazakhstan… Oh dear: I’m getting a headache of worries about them all. Therefore, lets talk about something that’s cosy!
For example: about the state of the Russian UMPK glide-bombs.
According to official Kyiv, the VKS released a total of 96 UMPKs, yesterday. Read: the Ukrainian UAV-offensive on nearest Russian air bases does have its effects. If nothing else, it’s forcing the VKS to withdraw its most exposed Su-24- and Su-34-units to more distant air bases. The rest of that calculation is simple, actually: the more distant the air bases in question are, the longer it takes for bombers in question to reach the battlefield. The longer they have to fly, the less time they have to return and load a new set of bombs. Because: well, not only that types like Su-24 and Su-34 take their 2-3 hours to ‘turn around’ (refuel and re-arm), but this process is nowadays even longer because it takes longer to arm them with UMPKs than with ‘dumb’ bombs.
Bonus: a large portion of UMPKs deployed by the VKS nowadays is directed at towns and villages in the Kursk Oblast. In Russia, not in Ukraine. Should anybody wonder if that’s ‘good’: check what the Russian UMPKs have (once again) done to the population of Kharkiv, three days ago…
That said, on 29 and 30 August, the VKS spent lots of UMPKs to target roads and storage depots in the northern Sumy Oblast: Bereza and Studenok area were hit several times. Moreover, it bombed a ‘convoy, killing at least a company of Ukrainian troops’ - which turned out to be a convoy of trucks carrying wheat harvested from local fields… another major military achievement by the greatest strategist of all the times and his Keystone Cops in Moscow…
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KURSK…
Despite significant reinforcement of VKS’ air defence- and electronic warfare systems in this sector (see my earlier reports), the PSU and ZSU are managing to continue interdicting the Russian supply columns streaming in direction of both Korenevo and Glushkoye. And then more. Between others, on Wednesday or Thursday (28-29 August), they’ve smashed much of a PMP-battalion approaching the Seym River – using FPVs…
And the PSU’s MiG-29s are JDAM-ing whatever pontoon bridge the Russians are still managing to construct over the Seym River:
PSU’s Su-24s have deployed Storm Shadows to smash an ammunition dump somewhere in eastern Ukraine.
….and, yesterday, around 11.00hrs local time, the PSU claimed to have shot down one of Russian Orions over the Kursk Oblast. Is a nice, fat, slow, but potentially highly-dangerous UAVs, looking like this:
On the ground… it’s ironic: while different Western war-monitors are busy explaining how the Russians quickly stalled the Ukrainian offensive, or that the Ukrainians are pushing west (on Glushkovsky) or wherever else, or wondering if the Ukrainians are (still) attacking into Korenevo or not, the ZSU actually remains busy decimating several sizeable concentrations of VSRF troops encircled behind its spearheads, and raiding towards north (i.e. the E38 highway).
A few of such encircled Russian units were in southern Korenevo: arguably, this week the Russians managed to re-establish contact to several of them. Let me help you with a map:
The biggest of surrounded groups of Russian troops remains in the area between Vetreno, Zuravli, and Kremanoe. Seems, this is consisting of elements from several Motor-Rifle Regiments staffed by conscripts. They’re scattered over an area of around 5 by 5 kilometres, and trying to hide. A total is ‘enough troops’ for the FSB to have squandered most of two battalions of the 810th Naval Infantry in vain attempts to reach them - through counterattacks from the west and from the north (marked by red ‘broken arrows’).
At least two other, smaller groups of encircled Russian troops remain somewhere in the Skrylevka-Sheptukhovka area. This is why a third battalion of the 810th NIB remains as busy – and continues suffering extensive losses (to quote a Russian, ‘…and how many losses…’).
Ukrainian tactics here is simple, and really resembling a Wildschweinjagd: encircle a company or battalion of the VSRF consisting of inexperienced (and not particularly keen to fight) Russian conscripts (frequently corsetted by Akhmats). Then set up ambushes for any relief force. Then collect the loot from the battlefield (that’s why we’re still getting lots of videos showing captured Russian teenagers and few heroic Akhmats to see, every single day), and then repeat the exercise…
Another two sizeable groups of Russian troops seems to be encircled in the Novoselovka-Pogrebki area, and a third in the Kireevka area. All are north/north-east of Malaya Loknya: they’re cut off because the ZSU is holding not only a long stretch of the road to Lgov towards north, but also dominating heights in the Bakhtinka area. That is why this week the 11th VDV Brigade remained busy collecting and evacuating yet more of Pudding’s holly conscripts - only to get hit by several ZSU raids into its southern flank….
In the south, the Russians have recovered Ulanok (their biggest success in this campaign so far), but their counterattacks on Borki and Spalnoe were all repelled with heavy loss. Even the Spetsnaz has major problems in running grinding attacks over swampy terrain…
Overall… meh, a total failure and an utter waste of time, this Ukrainian counteroffensive… only weirdos like me can’t wait for the FSB to realise the extension of latest losses of the 810th and 11th VDV (plus about a dozen of different regiments), and then cry for yet more troops - whether from Burkina Faso, northern Kharkiv or souther Zaporizhzhya…
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BATTLE OF DONBAS
Kupyansk-Svatove… bad news from this area. The last 4-5 days, the Russians have managed to secure Pishchane and push further east, in direction of Kolisnykivka and Senkove on the Oskil River. Are meanwhile just six kilometres away from the latter. If they manage to reach the river… that’s going to make things really troublesome for the ZSU in this sector. The area is defended by the poorly-equipped 110th Territorial Defence- and the inexperienced 77th Airborne Brigades…
…and… well, you know me and my unpleasant questions, but: I can’t but wonder why was the 3rd Assault running its ‘counteroffensive’ further south, against positions defended by the 11h Tank Regiment and the 24th Spetsnaz Brigades, ‘instead’?
But then, as so often, I’ve got no clue what am I talking about…
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Pokrovsk-Avdiivka… the Group Tsentr continued its western- and southern advance. Arguably, the last two days it was not as successful as earlier this week: its assaults into Novotoretske and Hrodivka were de-facto stopped (seems, the 151st Mech was reinforced… not sure if by elements of the 14th Mech or the 71st Jäger, or by both). I guess the 47th Mech has received some serious reinforcements, too (the Skala Battalion?)…. if for no other reason then because there are, actually, enough of these in the rear. The issue was just that of bringing them to Pokrovsk while the local railway- and road network is still under the ZSU-control.
On the southern side of that Russian offensive, the VSRF has secured Mykhalivka, Memrik and Karlivka, and pushed towards Ukrainsk (which is exposed to massive air strikes and artillery shelling), Lisivka, Dolynivka, and Halytsynivka. The Russian FPVs are already targeting the rear ZSU positions in Tsukuryne and Hirnyk…
The (quick) fall of Memrik is a particular blow, because this Russian push is threatening to drive into the rear of the ZSU units east of the Vovcha River, including the 15th NG Kara-Dag, 68th Jäger, 59th Motorised (remains one of best ZSU brigades so far), and the 117th TD Brigades. Unless the 25th Mech finds a way to stop the Russians in the Ukrainsk area, they’ll all have to quickly withdraw to the west of Vovcha - or wait until they’re cut off by the Russians, and that behind a river…
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Kurakhove-Vuhledar… the Russians are still trying to overcome the resistance of the 79th Airborne in western Kostyantinivka (notable is the growing use of civilian vehicles in Russian assaults, not only in this sector) - and are grinding themselves over the Road 00532 in direction of Vodyane.
Moreover, early this morning, the VSRF launched another major attack on Vuhledar. Details of the same are pending.
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Ah yes and… a plea for the gents from the ‘Centre for Defence Strategies’: if you’re already using my list of Russian units re-deployed to Kursk (like you did yesterday), which took me days to collect and hours to assemble, please, be so kind, use some formatting (so the list is easier to read), and credit the source.
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On the lighter side…
Except for that itch in my small toe, which seems to be quite famous between my readers, meanwhile, I’ve also got a small, little, entirely red… creature… well, looks like a jumping jack with a long, thin tail and two little horns… ah, whatever… point is: that creature is all the time sliding from my left- to my right shoulder. And it’s having lots of nasty ideas, and ending every second sentence with, ‘hi, hi, hi’.
One of its latest ideas was to prompt me into imagining the Trio Fantasticus’ reaction to the Russians using the Kaliningrad enclave to nuke Berlin, London, Warsaw, or one of major US bases in Europe - like Ramstein or Aviano…
‘Oh, sorry, no: you can’t use ATACMS against Kaliningrad. It’s of higher national interest for Bezos to restore Amazon Prime service in Russia once the war is over…. hi, hi, hi….’
I read the first paragraph and suddently want let you know that I really appreciate you long update. It's never been long enough actually. So, I can read as much as you have time to write for us.
Now I'm back to continue reading the rest of this update.
I'm shocked, shocked I tell ya, that Amazon prime has not been available to Metropolitan Russians. War is hell.