Ukraine, 20 October 2023: Alo! Alo!

Ukraine, 20 October 2023: Alo! Alo!

Good evening everybody!

Please accept my most sincere apology for not reporting on developments in Ukraine for something like 10 days. I know, many of you can’t wait for my next ‘update’. And yes, I’ll admit with some shame: have been ‘distracted’ by developments in Israel/Palestine. However, it’s not like I didn’t care: I’ve also tried to assess what exactly is going on in Ukraine, and how are these two conflicts interconnected.

Now, I’ve got no doubt that many of you would now like to hear me offering you something like a comparison of the Ukrainian battle for survival with something like ‘Israel’s battle of survival’. Alternatively, some might expect me to tell you about ‘Russian training for Hamas’. However, sorry, that’s not going to happen. Not because I would be ‘anti-Semitic’, because I would ‘hate Israel’ or whatever other nonsense different primitives can’t stop explaining about me, but because I’m one of those weirdos, thinking in entirely different directions.

For example, I cannot escape the impression that just a few days after the outbreak of a major ‘crisis’ in Israel/Palestine (which then prompted the USA to re-route much of its military aid from Ukraine to Israel; see below), Putin launched the biggest Russian offensive in Ukraine since February 2022.

Considering Putin’s close friendship to certain Benjamin Netanyahu – and complaints from multiple former directors of the Shin Bet (Israeli security service), and ex-generals of the IDF (Israel Defence Force) about Netanyahu’s government ignoring their warnings for months, if not for years – or Putin’s KGB/FSB-background and predilection for intrigue and conspiracies, not to talk about the power and influence of these two characters….well, hand on heart: this must be the purest, most distilled, and absolutely unintended accident in contemporary warfare.

Equally accidental – and entirely unpredictable (really: who would’ve ever thought?!?) - is the speed at which the USA are rushing huge volumes of military aid to Israel. Including thousands of shells calibre 155mm manufactured for Ukraine. I’m so surprised by this, can’t say. I’ve forgotten to ask myself such questions like: how many Ukrainian soldiers were killed or maimed this summer alone because of months-long delays in deliveries of (or outright refusals to deliver) advanced weaponry from the US, Germany, French, British, and other stocks? How many were killed or maimed by Ka-52s of the VKS, because, just for example, USA delayed the delivery of MGM-140 ATACM missiles?

And then….another question that never came to my mind: how comes the very same super-smart and turbo-democratic Western governments bringing such decisions – the very same people having sleepless nights out of worries about the well-being of the people whom they govern, and about Ukraine – and armies of their turbo-eloquent ‘national security advisors’, plus all the Western media, are excelling in damning corruption in Ukraine…but all of them are ignoring Netanyahu’s corruption, his dismantlement of whatever there was of Israel’s democracy, and that almost as well as they’re ignoring his friendship and business-relations to Putin?

But, you know me, and my unpleasant questions: there’s never an answer…

Don’t worry: you are not going to hear any kind of complaints about all of this from Kyiv. Both Washington and Brussel are meanwhile experts in preventing any of these, while (at least) half of Ukrainian media is busy expressing their deepest concerns about the safety of Israel…

…it was therefore quite comforting to conclude that (at least until some 10 or so days ago), there is no end of complaints about ‘shell deficit’, but from Russia – and this despite US reports about huge deliveries of artillery ammunition from North Korea. I’m only a bit worried about the amounts mentioned in some of assessments: say, up to 6 million rounds calibres 122mm and 130mm. At the time the USA are re-routing 155mm ammo from Ukraine to Israel… hm…

….hm….  

….gosh, this is going to be hard to explain… Don’t know why – really: no trace of clue – but, for months already, whenever I’m thinking about Ukraine’s, and Kyiv’s position vis-à-vis USA and NATO, only one association is coming to my mind.

Back in the 1980s, there was a TV-comedy in the UK, titled ‘Alo! Alo!’ Essence of the story: a café in a small French town, during the German occupation in the Second World War.

Now, the owner of that café is all the time cheating on his wife with his young waitresses. And every time his wife catches him with one, and that happened in almost every episode, he yells at his wife things like, ‘Youuuuuuu, stuuupid woman! Don’t you see the poor girl has hurt her head, and I’m trying to prevent her from falling…?’

….and his wife bought it. Every single time…

(For all the thin-skinned people reading this: don’t worry, they’re not making such shows nowadays any more: they’re ‘politically incorrect’…)

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

Yes, yes, I know: have promised my update on air warfare at least 20 days ago, if not longer. It’s not that I do not care, or can’t. On the contrary: started working on it at least some 5-6 times. And just when I thought I’ve finally collected enough info and understood the latest developments, there’s something new happening…

For example: the last 5-6 days, Ukrainians claimed 5-6 Russian Su-25 as shot down. mostly over the Avdiivka sector, which is no surprise, but also over the southern Zaporizhzya, which is. Hand on heart: after decades of studying modern air warfare, cannot but observe (indeed: ‘warn’) that claims alone mean nothing unless there is at least such evidence like video or photo. Essentially, these 5-6 Ukrainian claims are as ‘valid’ as some 10-12 Russian claims for Ukrainian MiG-29s and Su-25s issued over the same period. And raising the total of Ukrainian jets claimed by the Keystone Cops to roundy 500 (pay attention: 500. No 499, or 501…). So, wouldn’t have lost too many thoughts about this. But, when then a Russian contact added two Ka-52 to Ukrainian claims – which, AFAIK, Kyiv didn’t even claim - …..hm…. the only thing coming to my mind is that, ‘something is rotten in the land…. of the VKS’.

What exactly: no idea yet, simply because there are no videos or photos showing any of downed jets in question (the sole photo purportedly showing a ‘Su-25 going down in flames’, and shown as such to General Zaluzhny, is showing a Su-34 shot down over a year ago). Not to talk about what exactly has got them. We’ve got to wait and see…

On the contrary, what is sure is that over the last 48 hours, and after – finally – receiving MGM-140 ATACMs – though the old version with range of only 165km, and M39 Block 1 warheads, what else… – the ZSU had some great times blasting forward operating bases of the VKS in eastern and southern Ukraine. See: Luhansk airport, see Berdyansk airport, see Melitopol airport. On the basis of resulting satellite photographs, somebody counted some 20+ Russian helicopters as destroyed, including something like year-worth of production of new Ka-52s. Plus few ammunition depots. And there were dozens of dead, too.

Best of all is: this is visually confirmed. Indeed, reportedly code-named the Operation Dragonfly, and undertaken in cooperation with Ukrainian special forces, this enterprise was a full success. In a matter of ‘few hours’, the VKS was left without much of its attack helicopters deployed close enough to the combat zone.

…and in between of all of this, something hit the Khalino AB, outside Kurks, and blew up (at least) 18 Russian UAVs, and that right next to a field camp for 80 vehicles and 4,000 troops, so that one can expect some damage in that area, too.

To make things even better: this is confirmed even by widespread complaints in the Russian social media, where the word is that somebody has ‘forgotten’ to provide sufficient protection in form of suitable air defence systems, for all of these important installations. I would say that nobody forgot about that, but ‘somebody else’ ordered the withdrawal or re-deployment of all the available air defence systems to protect much more important places. Like Moscow…or the Crimea… and thus not enough was left to cover Luhansk, Beryansk, and Melitopol… but then, who am I to say…?

Ah well… enough of foreplay. Lets go over to developments on the battlefield.

NAVAL WARFARE

Can you imagine: after a Romanian tanker hit a Russian mine inside Bulgarian territorial waters, NATO started cleaning Russian naval mines from Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters. Good there’s NATO and the two countries are NATO-members, otherwise one might come to the idea to question the purpose of that alliance. Like, for example, preventing the Russian mines from reaching their territorial waters… But never mind: I’m sure all of the NATO HQ in Brussels is now very proud of itself… because the entire operation was initiated by Ukrainians…

At least the function of the Ukrainian grain-export corridor appears to be safe: ships are loading in ports in southern Ukraine and diligently moving stuff to its customers.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kupyansk-Svatove…The last ten days, and essentially, the Russians first assaulted from Lyman Pershyi in direction of Synkivka, and from Yahidne on Ivanivka, before they were driven back and, north of Ivanivka, the 115^th Mechanised hit them into their northern flank, and liberated quite a sizeable chunk of terrain, including a dominating elevation.

Bakhmut…. South of the ruined town, the Russians did run few counterattacks from the T-0513 in direction of the railway berm, but all were repelled, and the ZSU is cautiously encroaching the enemy frontline between Opytne and Mikolaivka.

That said, all of this was ‘just a diversion’ from what was going on (and is still going on) in the Avdiivka sector of the last few days.

Why Avdiivka?

The town – or what’s left of it after 19 months of Russian air strikes, artillery barrages, and ground attacks - and ZSU positions in this area is the last sector of the old ‘Line of Control’ (LOC) from 2014-2015 still under Ukrainian control. It’s also close to Donetsk. Thus, the Russians decided to drive Ukrainians out for good.

As reported back on 11 October, the Russians attacked in form of a pincer:

-          The northern prong led by the 114^th MRB (reinforced by two rifle battalions) which first pushed from the Krasnohorivka area in direction of Stepnoye and the Hill 230.

-          In the centre, in the Krutaya Balka area, few Russian volunteer units (Pyatnashka and Yurga Battalions), attempted to reach the N-20 road.

-          In the south, the 1^st MRB attacked in direction of Avdiivka.

Additional diversionary attacks were undertaken by the 9^th MRB and the 110^th MRB from Vodyane on Netailovo and from Pisky on Pervomayske, respectively.

As reported on the 11^th, already the first Russian assaults run into trouble. What happened? Well, as first, the ZSU returned the favour and deployed over 500,000 mines in this area during this year alone. Read: in addition to (probably) the same amount that was deployed in the same area before. And then, as the Russians continued their attempts to advance, the ZSU continued deploying additional mines with help of artillery and UAVs. This is why the Russians were not only plastered by Ukrainian shells and rockets – by the 43^rd Artillery- and the 107^th Rocket Artillery Brigades – as soon as they were on the move, but also constantly running into ever new, and unknown minefields, and suffering catastrophic losses. Moreover, by around 15-16 October, the ZSU artillery knocked out some 80 Russian artillery pieces north of Avdiivka, too.

Still, the Russians continued pushing and by 12 or 13 October have reached the railway berm east of Stepove. Ukrainians counterattacked and pushed them back. Around 16 or 17 October, the Russians then realised they can’t reach Stepove without capturing a dominating elevation north of Avdiivka. Essentially a huge pile of coke slack from the nearby Avdevevskiy Coke Plant. Tall enough to control the entire area, and an ideal defence position. Therefore, they brought in their ‘operational manoeuvre reserve’, the 21^st Motor Rifle Brigade, to capture that ‘hill’ and this pushed, ‘all out style’.

Have no doubts: defending this wasn’t easy for Ukrainians: some of forward positions were overrun by the Russians and there were losses. Indeed, the latest Russian assaults were launched from within captured Ukrainian positions and several ZSU-troops are describing 18 October as ‘hell’. The Russians came with ‘everything’: air strikes by Su-25s, continuous barrage from artillery and multiple rocket launchers, and then a mass of tanks and other armoured vehicles of the 21^st MRB. This were no mobiks, but professional Russian troops, and they fought well. Still, they’ve suffered catastrophic losses: the ZSU counted a total of 97 destroyed Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers. Some are comparing the intensity of the Russian assault with ‘Battle of Kursk’.

Scenes from different videos showing the ‘death march’ of the 21st MRB on 17 and/or 18 October, north of Avdiivka. Entire columns of IVFs can be seen afire: first stopped by mines, then hit by artillery…

Since yesterday, word is that the Russians ceased attacking with armour. Ever since, they’re assaulting with infantry alone – often even without artillery or air support…

Make no mistake: this battle is far from over, because the Russians have meanwhile deployed additional reserves behind this sector of the battlefield. Thus, one has to expect them to attempt again.

Now lets hope the ZSU doesn’t run out of ammo, because… ah well, by now you should know why…

SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA & KHERSON

This change of the title is conditioned by the fact that it can be concluded – and then with a high dose of certainty – that the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in June is, at least temporarily, over. Sure, Ukrainians are in the process of rotating their units in and out of the ‘bulge’ in southern Zaporizhzhya once again. They have also re-deployed the 128th Mountain Assault to the Kopani area, and replaced some of Naval Infantry units in the Staromlynivka area. But, they’re continuing to raid selected Russian positions at every opportunity. Fighting remains heavy. But, the ‘big-style, multi-prong offensive operation in several sectors’ – is over.

In the Robotyne-Verbove-Novoprokopivka area, the Russians exploited the opportunity to re-group their forces. Essentially, what is left of the 42^nd MRD (1429^th and 1441^st MRRs, plus 71^st and 291^st MRR) was now re-deployed to the area west of Robotyne (see: Kopani and south of it); what’s left of the 76^th MRD (remnants of different BARS-regiments) is now covering the area between Novorprokopivka and Verbove. The 7^th VDV was rushed to replace the battered 108^th VDV Regiment north of Verbove, after this has lost a number of positions – and some 1,5km of terrain. The rest of the VDV (both parts of the 7^th and the 76^th VDV) was withdrawn further to the rear: while licking wounds, they’re now something like ‘2^nd Line of Defence’.

Sadly, Ukrainians have failed to take any of dominating heights (see: Hill 161, Hill 166, and Hill 169).

SOUTHERN KHERSON

What’s left of the Russian defence line down the eastern bank of the Dnipro River is nowadays defended by the 18^th CAA (Skadovsk area; this is the former 22^nd AK, re-organised and expanded in summer this year, as reported earlier), and the 49^th CAA (Nova Kakhovka).

On Wednesday, reports surfaced about Ukrainians crossing Dnipro few kilometres upstream from Antonivka to liberate the village of Poima, north of Oleshky, and then – along the Russian reports – ‘achieve a break-though’ of the VSRF’s frontline in this area. Now, not really sure there is any kind of a ‘break-through; Poima is behind the Russian frontline between Oleshky and Pischanivka and, AFAIK, still under the Russian control. Ukrainians should have liberated the village of Krynki, further north, though.

Think, that’s about that for today. I’ll see to come back with the next update as soon as possible.