My assessment is that orange won't provide tomahawks like long range land attack missles (LR-LCM) or surface to surface missles (SSM) to the Ukrainians. It's just a ploy for him to being able to look more anti Russian since he's been outed as someone upon whom Russians have the Kompromat. Focus on his usual statements of "I might provide", this to Ukraine and that, but does he actually?? And not to mention that trump maga is pro Russian and it's vocal members in gop have given statements in support of putin. MAGA actually idolizes putin's Russia when it comes to culturally and militarily. So he may have been saying such things to appease his neocon representatives in the house like rep. bacon and others, but him in all actuality going forward with this tomahawks pitch to Ukraine should be taken with a pinch for a while.
Wondered where your estimate of 97-99% of Ukrainian long range drones / cruise missiles being shot down comes from? Do you think Russia is in any danger of running out of SAM or AAMs (like Ukraine)?
As for numbers, I have seen no figures, and would guess there's not that many, given the lack of munitions for them as you noted. Seems to me more of a "now China has to plan for these launchers being on land too" then a serious capability, at this stage anyway.
For Ukraine, it doesn't change the end result at all really, but at least it is technically possible without making a new TEL from scratch.
Thanks for this Tom. As far as I know the US Army only has two batteries of TLAM, with four TELs to a battery. I don’t see them selling these even for symbolic reasons. I think Z and Trump and others are are just talking to frighten the Kremlin, not that likely to do so, tho.
The analyst Resurgam links this talk to Oshkosh's announcement this week of a self propelled Tomahawk launcher (X-MAV), as a marketing tool/action test by the US, after Ukraine gets to fire a few Tomahawks from them.
The Oshkosh variant appears to be ready for battle testing.
Two phone calls between the orange one and Zelenskyi, and a visit, all aimed at getting the Europeans to pay for this experiment. Rumour is it's going to be limited to 20 or so missiles, enough to get invaluable real world data, paid for by Europe and Ukraine, but it won't have much effect on the war.
Tom the LRFL ROGUE FIRES launcher(compatible to Mk 41 VLS strike length cells)single weapon launcher would be deployed for next year's BK exercise in the PH.
So the Tomahawk might be tested in the live fire drill of the exercise series.
The 97% not currently getting through must be seriously depleting Russias SAM stocks ? Maybe dropping by 1,500 a month ?
I expect China will eventually step in if they have not already by providing their (probably better) analogs of Russian SAMs to Russia. A bit humiliating for Russia.
Of course they're depleting the Russia's stocks on SAMs. But, SAM-production is the least of Pudding's worries.
China can't step in in this regards because, regardless how often 'based on Soviet/Russian designs', the majority of PRC-manufactured SAMs are 'entirely different pair of shoes' than the Russian ones. Often enough, it's already the launch means ('cold' vs. 'hot') that are fundamentally different. Not to talk about fire-control radars, computers, software etc., etc., etc.
i haven;t heard any numbers. Some 2-3 years ago, i read they should produced 1000 missiles for S400 in 2-3 years. But this was only 1 type( with best range) and there can be other types of S400 produced and also many other types BUK, TOR, Pantsir but no numbers, just from Tom that too many.
The latest data on American Tomahawks is 4,150 units in stock, and only 20-50 could be transferred to Ukraine. This is definitely not a "weapon of victory"!
Your assessment of Trump is extraordinarily accurate. I am astonished and ashamed that someone so transparently pathological, stupid, repulsive and corrupt is not in jail. The level of moral depravity in our society required to elect such a person to be President is deeply disturbing. For current events and future implications.
Thank you for this sobering analysis. Regarding Drumpf I will claim I made the same analysis of my own. And also the strings attached point. But the rest was new. (Ok, you once again denounced something as a war winning weapon but that was also unsurprising. Still the reasons why matters.) I think the most crucial task for UAF then is to increase the survivability of their drones and missiles. And in the meantime hope that the 1-3 percent hurts.
Thanks. I hear a lot about Taurus missiles. Are they more capable?
Much shorter-ranged than Tomahawk.
Taurus is directly comparable to Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG.
My assessment is that orange won't provide tomahawks like long range land attack missles (LR-LCM) or surface to surface missles (SSM) to the Ukrainians. It's just a ploy for him to being able to look more anti Russian since he's been outed as someone upon whom Russians have the Kompromat. Focus on his usual statements of "I might provide", this to Ukraine and that, but does he actually?? And not to mention that trump maga is pro Russian and it's vocal members in gop have given statements in support of putin. MAGA actually idolizes putin's Russia when it comes to culturally and militarily. So he may have been saying such things to appease his neocon representatives in the house like rep. bacon and others, but him in all actuality going forward with this tomahawks pitch to Ukraine should be taken with a pinch for a while.
Wondered where your estimate of 97-99% of Ukrainian long range drones / cruise missiles being shot down comes from? Do you think Russia is in any danger of running out of SAM or AAMs (like Ukraine)?
It seems typhon was in fact completed, and even had an operational deployment a while back.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/u-s-army-deploys-new-missile-launcher-to-the-philippines/
As for numbers, I have seen no figures, and would guess there's not that many, given the lack of munitions for them as you noted. Seems to me more of a "now China has to plan for these launchers being on land too" then a serious capability, at this stage anyway.
For Ukraine, it doesn't change the end result at all really, but at least it is technically possible without making a new TEL from scratch.
Thanks a lot, Tom.
That's not any kind of "Assessment" more like half-assed hatred, word salad retardation from "Der Farten Führer."
Thanks for this Tom. As far as I know the US Army only has two batteries of TLAM, with four TELs to a battery. I don’t see them selling these even for symbolic reasons. I think Z and Trump and others are are just talking to frighten the Kremlin, not that likely to do so, tho.
Jericho 2/3 missiles in large numbers would do the trick even better than Tomahawks.
What?
Ukraine is as likely to get them as they are to getting large number of Tomahawks.
My (sad) point is that the west has the means to decisively help Ukraine.
It is the will that is not fully there.
The analyst Resurgam links this talk to Oshkosh's announcement this week of a self propelled Tomahawk launcher (X-MAV), as a marketing tool/action test by the US, after Ukraine gets to fire a few Tomahawks from them.
The Oshkosh variant appears to be ready for battle testing.
Two phone calls between the orange one and Zelenskyi, and a visit, all aimed at getting the Europeans to pay for this experiment. Rumour is it's going to be limited to 20 or so missiles, enough to get invaluable real world data, paid for by Europe and Ukraine, but it won't have much effect on the war.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/10/oshkosh-ground-based-tomahawk-launcher-breaks-cover/
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/10/oshkosh-ground-based-tomahawk-launcher-breaks-cover/?fbclid=IwY2xjawNcRitleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHkGaVyTaNYLs0ApmyPOUKGVM8iwqqo3FiFrO7GVPw8c7No0LChO7Q1xEKXYg_aem_kg7SeM56BIEiQoHP0ztVqw
Tom the LRFL ROGUE FIRES launcher(compatible to Mk 41 VLS strike length cells)single weapon launcher would be deployed for next year's BK exercise in the PH.
So the Tomahawk might be tested in the live fire drill of the exercise series.
Thanks again Tom, symbolic focus weapons will not really win wars efficiently or decisively.
The 97% not currently getting through must be seriously depleting Russias SAM stocks ? Maybe dropping by 1,500 a month ?
I expect China will eventually step in if they have not already by providing their (probably better) analogs of Russian SAMs to Russia. A bit humiliating for Russia.
Yup lots of copium
Of course they're depleting the Russia's stocks on SAMs. But, SAM-production is the least of Pudding's worries.
China can't step in in this regards because, regardless how often 'based on Soviet/Russian designs', the majority of PRC-manufactured SAMs are 'entirely different pair of shoes' than the Russian ones. Often enough, it's already the launch means ('cold' vs. 'hot') that are fundamentally different. Not to talk about fire-control radars, computers, software etc., etc., etc.
Thanks reassuring China cant step in easily.
Any finger in air how many SAM Russia may have left ? over 10K ?
Also, do we have any indication of how many Russia is producing pr. Month?
i haven;t heard any numbers. Some 2-3 years ago, i read they should produced 1000 missiles for S400 in 2-3 years. But this was only 1 type( with best range) and there can be other types of S400 produced and also many other types BUK, TOR, Pantsir but no numbers, just from Tom that too many.
Soon those kremlin swamps won't be able to produce anything
https://unn.ua/ru/news/ssha-mogut-peredat-ukraine-tolko-20-50-raket-tomahawk-ft
The latest data on American Tomahawks is 4,150 units in stock, and only 20-50 could be transferred to Ukraine. This is definitely not a "weapon of victory"!
Big thank you to Tom for that detailed and excellent analysis and point 1) about the 'orange idiot' was for me the icing on the cake. 😁
Your assessment of Trump is extraordinarily accurate. I am astonished and ashamed that someone so transparently pathological, stupid, repulsive and corrupt is not in jail. The level of moral depravity in our society required to elect such a person to be President is deeply disturbing. For current events and future implications.
Thank you for this sobering analysis. Regarding Drumpf I will claim I made the same analysis of my own. And also the strings attached point. But the rest was new. (Ok, you once again denounced something as a war winning weapon but that was also unsurprising. Still the reasons why matters.) I think the most crucial task for UAF then is to increase the survivability of their drones and missiles. And in the meantime hope that the 1-3 percent hurts.