The other huge shift on the battlefield is the decline of Russian artillery. I'm sure everyone here recalls the shocking intensity of the barrages that flattened Severodonetsk back in 2022. And also the "sky is falling reportage" in late 2024 when the US Republicans blocked munitions shipments to Ukraine whilst Russian artillery fire remained irresistible accorded to clueless reporters. Yet, somehow Ukraine did resist. Big surprise.
The days of Soviet-era thousand gun barrages appear to be long gone. And now, with Ukraine claiming its been jamming Russia's latest supposedly unjammable glide bombs for months, this could be another big factor in why Russia is gaining so little ground.
Drones on both sides have suppressed artillery fire and also forced the dispersion of targets. Drones cause 90% of the casualties.
Back when artillery was still widely used, the failure to send aid to Ukraine from October 2023 to April 2024 directly contributed to the fall of Avdiivka.
Exactly. Even then the fall of Avdiivka has been relatively insignificant on a strategic scale unlike Severodonestk which opened up the northern Donbas to Russian advances on a scale not seen since 2022 despite Russia's intense glide-bombing campaign.
Avdiivka was a strong position. You can draw a straight line from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk. The lateral pressure on Kurakhove, and later, Kostiantynivka, was strong.
Like Phillips O'Brien keeps pointing out, none of the towns/very small cities that have fallen since 2023 have any strategic significance. Sure, they're fortified but they are just ageing mining towns. Do you recall the fuss about how the frontline would collapse when the GLOCs that ran through Pokrovsk were severed? No collapse occurred. Just a withdrawal to the next line of defence. It was not strategically significant. Ditto Bakhmut. Ditto Chasiv Yar. And so on. No major city has fallen since summer 2022.
My point is that artillery was still a major factor in 2023 and the lack of ammo was a contributing factor in the fall of a strong position. The longer a position holds out, the more it slows the Russian advance. Artillery ammo shortage was a major factor at Avdiivka. Ukrainian mistakes contributed to the fall at Vuhledar, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. They all had the potential to hold out much longer than they did.
Paved roads are better for logistics than dirt roads but that is only a factor in speed, and therefore the rate of resupply. Long before Pokrovsk there have been several instances in which Ukraine was able to maintain logistical traffic on dirt roads. Logistical capabilities are constrained only by blocking terrain, such as rivers, and drones.
Thank you for this summary. You haven’t discussed the naval war. It might be seen as insignificant, but keeping the Russian Navy away from the Black Sea enables export. So I think it was important. And it was won by Ukraine through driving the Russian fleet away.
True. It is significant not just for Ukrainian exports but Russian exports. The impact of the Black Sea campaign on Ukrainian exports has been settled for a while and the impact on Russian exports is becoming more settled as the months go by.
Thanks from Asturias Spain
Excellent detail work 👍. A very good review.
Thanks, very good work.
Looking forward to your book(s) on the subject :)
The other huge shift on the battlefield is the decline of Russian artillery. I'm sure everyone here recalls the shocking intensity of the barrages that flattened Severodonetsk back in 2022. And also the "sky is falling reportage" in late 2024 when the US Republicans blocked munitions shipments to Ukraine whilst Russian artillery fire remained irresistible accorded to clueless reporters. Yet, somehow Ukraine did resist. Big surprise.
The days of Soviet-era thousand gun barrages appear to be long gone. And now, with Ukraine claiming its been jamming Russia's latest supposedly unjammable glide bombs for months, this could be another big factor in why Russia is gaining so little ground.
Drones on both sides have suppressed artillery fire and also forced the dispersion of targets. Drones cause 90% of the casualties.
Back when artillery was still widely used, the failure to send aid to Ukraine from October 2023 to April 2024 directly contributed to the fall of Avdiivka.
Exactly. Even then the fall of Avdiivka has been relatively insignificant on a strategic scale unlike Severodonestk which opened up the northern Donbas to Russian advances on a scale not seen since 2022 despite Russia's intense glide-bombing campaign.
Avdiivka was a strong position. You can draw a straight line from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk. The lateral pressure on Kurakhove, and later, Kostiantynivka, was strong.
Like Phillips O'Brien keeps pointing out, none of the towns/very small cities that have fallen since 2023 have any strategic significance. Sure, they're fortified but they are just ageing mining towns. Do you recall the fuss about how the frontline would collapse when the GLOCs that ran through Pokrovsk were severed? No collapse occurred. Just a withdrawal to the next line of defence. It was not strategically significant. Ditto Bakhmut. Ditto Chasiv Yar. And so on. No major city has fallen since summer 2022.
My point is that artillery was still a major factor in 2023 and the lack of ammo was a contributing factor in the fall of a strong position. The longer a position holds out, the more it slows the Russian advance. Artillery ammo shortage was a major factor at Avdiivka. Ukrainian mistakes contributed to the fall at Vuhledar, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. They all had the potential to hold out much longer than they did.
Paved roads are better for logistics than dirt roads but that is only a factor in speed, and therefore the rate of resupply. Long before Pokrovsk there have been several instances in which Ukraine was able to maintain logistical traffic on dirt roads. Logistical capabilities are constrained only by blocking terrain, such as rivers, and drones.
Thank you for this summary. You haven’t discussed the naval war. It might be seen as insignificant, but keeping the Russian Navy away from the Black Sea enables export. So I think it was important. And it was won by Ukraine through driving the Russian fleet away.
True. It is significant not just for Ukrainian exports but Russian exports. The impact of the Black Sea campaign on Ukrainian exports has been settled for a while and the impact on Russian exports is becoming more settled as the months go by.