To make such drones, Ukraine must first develop the means to protect its own airspace. Otherwise, it can't protect those designing and manufacturing attack drones.
Thanks Tom, thanks Ben. Since countering Russian attack drones is very relevant now, I found information about the latest developments in fighter drones. At the same time, there was already a report in the press that German TYTAN drones are already being used by the Ukrainians. However, they are all controlled by operators, although aerial targets such as drones are much easier to detect, identify and attack than any ground ones.
Thanks for the analysis. As someone who has tried to develop predictive maintenance systems and works with AI people I can only say amen. An add, this is only the beginning of your problems. Your list is obviously correct, and it’s also probably very incomplete. Analysis of faults might tell more. Still. If research and field testing continues, these factors can be overcome. Or at least reduced. So there will be more. And the systems will be better.
You bring up a very good point. The list of problems is very long. Too long for even a semi-technical paper like this one. It's why I worry about western AI production. Even with all the money in the world, without the ability to iterate quickly like in Ukraine, you will never see the weak spots plaguing your systems.
Well, the Ukrainians have to innovate faster than the Russians. And let’s face it, Us defense companies are not fast enough for this. But I guess there will be a lot of interesting technology for sale after the war.
Even if the technical problems get overcome, the step 4 (kill decision) will be left to human operators, because nobody wants full autonomy in lethal machines under the current rules of engagement in western armies.
I suggest Daniel Suarez "Kill decision" for an entertaining/scary treatment of this problem (which is quite real).
The thing that people forget is that all those decisions are based on probability, like a lot of things in life when you try to forecast something—weather, for example. Nothing is ever going to be 100%. You train your algorithms and set an acceptable probability level, then you analyze errors, and the process goes in a loop.
The win for me would be a loitering AI drone over Moscow that recognises key members of Putler’s inner circle and takes them out automatically….
To make such drones, Ukraine must first develop the means to protect its own airspace. Otherwise, it can't protect those designing and manufacturing attack drones.
Thanks Tom, thanks Ben. Since countering Russian attack drones is very relevant now, I found information about the latest developments in fighter drones. At the same time, there was already a report in the press that German TYTAN drones are already being used by the Ukrainians. However, they are all controlled by operators, although aerial targets such as drones are much easier to detect, identify and attack than any ground ones.
https://building-tech.org/%D0%A1%D0%BE%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%89%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE/dron-perekhvatchyk-tytan:-nemetskye-tekhnologyy-pomogayut-ukraynskym-voennim-borotsya-s-vrazheskymy-bespylotnykamy#:~:text=Tytan%20%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%B5%D1%82%20%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9,%D0%B8%20%D0%B2%D0%B7%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%205%20%D0%BA%D0%B3.
Thanks for the analysis. As someone who has tried to develop predictive maintenance systems and works with AI people I can only say amen. An add, this is only the beginning of your problems. Your list is obviously correct, and it’s also probably very incomplete. Analysis of faults might tell more. Still. If research and field testing continues, these factors can be overcome. Or at least reduced. So there will be more. And the systems will be better.
You bring up a very good point. The list of problems is very long. Too long for even a semi-technical paper like this one. It's why I worry about western AI production. Even with all the money in the world, without the ability to iterate quickly like in Ukraine, you will never see the weak spots plaguing your systems.
Well, the Ukrainians have to innovate faster than the Russians. And let’s face it, Us defense companies are not fast enough for this. But I guess there will be a lot of interesting technology for sale after the war.
Even if the technical problems get overcome, the step 4 (kill decision) will be left to human operators, because nobody wants full autonomy in lethal machines under the current rules of engagement in western armies.
I suggest Daniel Suarez "Kill decision" for an entertaining/scary treatment of this problem (which is quite real).
I wouldn’t count on it.
What about the last Russian attacks when the "Patriots" seem to fail?
That depends on the place and timing of the attack. If the place is protected by advanced SAMs = no problem. If it is not... sigh...
Besides, the Russians are constantly adjusting the tactics for attack-UAVs...
The thing that people forget is that all those decisions are based on probability, like a lot of things in life when you try to forecast something—weather, for example. Nothing is ever going to be 100%. You train your algorithms and set an acceptable probability level, then you analyze errors, and the process goes in a loop.