The Russian Missile Campaign against Ukraine: April 2024
by Adrien Fontanellaz
Hello everybody!
I’ll start this update with a short briefing on what’s up on the ground, because - and essentially - the fighting continues raging all along the frontlines of the war in Ukraine. Still, and somewhat ironically considering how tense is the situation, and how many efforts put up by both sides, there is not much to report in terms of advances of withdrawals, though. Essentially:
In Vovchansk, in northern Kharkiv, Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back into the northern fringes of the town, recovering nearly all of its north-west. The Russians are still holding out in the area around the Kindergarden No. 6, and north of it.
All the Russian attacks in the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina area have been repelled.
In the Bilohorivka area (the one on Siversky Donets), the Russians are now down to attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian positions. About a dozen of such attempts has been launched the last 24 hours: nearly all have been destroyed, but Ukrainians are still busy eliminating remaining infiltrators.
In the Chasiv Yar area, two days ago a Russian MT-LB loaded with troops took a wrong turn and, much to everybody’s surprise, drove all the way through Kalinina and across the Siversky Donets - Donbas Canal before realising mistake. It was knocked out while attempting to return to own lines, and all the troops it carried were killed or captured. Still, some jumped to the conclusion the Russians would now be advancing in this area.
Of course, the Russians continue pushing in few other areas. Foremost on Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, and Karlivka area (Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector), and less so in the Robotyne area (southern Zaporizhzhya).
Actually, one of ‘most interesting’ developments of the last few days (I know, I know: I’m ‘skimming’ hundreds, if not thousands of other combat events) is the fact that the Bulava Battalion of the Independent Presidential Brigade, ZSU, premiered the Wild Hornet attack UAV with an autonomous guidance system - to smack a Russian tank:
https://x.com/wilendhornets/status/1798079426594517195
Essentially, this is the ‘AI-guided’ version of the Wild Hornet UAV. The addition of this guidance system to the already existing weapon costs some US$150. As far as is known to us, this is the first-ever deployment of an AI-controlled UAV in this war (and thus in the history of warfare, too).
(With special thanks to Alex for ‘heads up’ and other details!)
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Therefore, I would say it’s a good opportunity to, finally, post Adrien’s summary of the Russian missile campaign against Ukraine in April this year.
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April 2024 saw a marked decrease in the number of Russian weapons launched deeper into the Ukrainian airspace. According to official Kyiv, a total of 429 ballistic- and cruise missiles, and attack UAVs have been registered. For comparison: back in March it was 860. That is a decrease of nearly 50%.
Despite the decrease in the overall number of missiles and drones fired at Ukraine in April, roughly one fourth went through the entire array of the integrated air defence system (IADS) of the Ukrainian Air Force (PSU). The PSU claimed to have shot down or spoofed 320 of them. As usual for over a year, this was due to the combined action of mobile fire groups equipped with heavy machine guns (HMGs) and man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), but also anti-aircraft missile batteries, electronic warfare systems such as Pokrova, and interceptors of the PSU, which are known to have been scrambled on at least five occasions. All their operations were coordinated with the - meanwhile - very efficient IADS of the PSU: this is using its early warning radars, electronic intelligence- (ELINT) and signals intelligence (SIGINT) stations, the Zvook sound-detection systems, and real-time intelligence provided by Ukrainian allies.
Nevertheless, the 109 weapons known to have not been intercepted did inflict serious damage - foremost to the Ukrainian energy sector, which remains one of two focuses of the Russian missile strikes. The other is air bases of the PSU.
In terms of equipment deployed, April saw a resumption in the use of 3M54 Kalibr cruise missiles - even if at small scale: nine were released in total. That said, in grand total, the number of cruise missiles deployed against Ukraine remains low - especially in comparison to December 2023 (120) or January 2024 (134). This is either,
a) confirming assessments that the Russian aerospace industry cannot maintain its earlier rate of output, or
b) confirming assessments along which the Keystone Cops are trying to reconstitute their total stockpiles.
The option b appears more likely because in January 2024, official Kyiv assessed that the Russian industry is presently manufacturing 115 to 130 ballistic- and cruise missiles with range of more than 350km - every month.
Whatever is the reason, from the Ukrainian point of view, this was just as fortunate because the stocks of PSU’s surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) were widely reported as reaching rock-bottom levels in April.
Another point of interest was the low number of ballistic missiles deployed by the Russians in April this year. Certainly enough, the VSRF is doing its best to waste its Iskanders against areas protected by US-made PAC-2/3 Patriot SAM-systems, like Kyiv and Odesa. Instead, these were deployed against targets in south-eastern Ukraine while few Iskander-Ms were fired during large-scale raids, whether as a form of harassment or to strike time-sensitive targets.
Chronologically…
The first days of the month withnessed the usual harassment raids combining Geran-2/Shahed 136 attack UAVs with smaller numbers of S-300 SAMs fired in ballistic mode; the occasional Kh-59s, and (on 5 April), three Iskander-M ballistic missiles. The first larger attack took place during the night from 5 to 6 April, when 32 Geran-2, 3 S-300s, a pair of Kh-101 and a single Kalibr were released. This effort was almost entirely ineffective: 28 Geran-2s and 3 cruise missiles were shot down.
A new series of harassment- and raids serving the purpose of ‘mapping’ positions of PSU’s air defence have followed until the night from 10 to 11 April, when the Russians launched what turned out to be the largest strike of the month, including a total of 81 weapons:
• Tu-95MS’ of the long range aviation launched 20 Kh-101/555 from the Saratov aera, of which 16 were shot down;
• 6 MiG-31Ks released 6 Kinzhal missiles from above the Tambov area;
• VKS tactical fighter-bombers fired 4 Kh-59 from the southern Zaproizhzhya area; two of these were shot down;
• 39 Geran-2 were launched from Cape Chauda (Crimea) and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, with all of them being shot down or spoofed over the Ukrainian airspace.
• 12 S-300 were fired against from the Belgorod region in another terror strike against Kharkiv.
While the PSU claimed a total of 58 of these shot down, those missiles and attack drones that went through have obliterated the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) and damaged at least two other power plants.
The harassment attacks resumed through the following week and until the night from 19 to 20 April, when a total of 36 weapons were launched, including;
• 2 Kh-101 launched by a single Tu-95MS over the Ryazan area, with both ending shot down;
• A pair of Iskander-K cruise missiles fired from Crimea;
• 14 Geran-2/Shahed-136, all shot down or spoofed; and
• VKS tactical fighters (most likely Su-34s) releasing a total of 12 Kh-59 and Kh-69s. Only one of those passed through the gauntlet of Ukrainian Air Defences.
Furthermore, at least two Tu-22M3 of the Long Range Aviation fired six Kh-22 missiles. This time however, the VKS met with two nasty suprises. At first, and for the first time in the war, two Kh-22 - so far immune to Ukrainian air defences thanks to their high-velocity quasi-balistic terminal trajectory - were shot down. Secondly, and far worst for the Russians, one of the Tu-22M3 was hit by a S-200 (ASCC/NATO-reporting name ‘SA-5 Gammon’) SAM while underway around 300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Badly damaged, the bomber crashed in the Stavropol Krai, while attempting to return to base. As far as is known, at least one, probably two crew-members were killed.
How comes?
Apparently, the GUR (or HUR; the Ukrainian military intelligence) got wind about this strike and was informed about the route about to be taken by the Russian bombers: therefore, the PSU was able to set up an ambush by emplacing one or two launchers and the fire-control radar of the (antiquated, but very powerful) S-200 system in their way. As far as is known, this was the first Tu-22M-3 shot down in combat during this war.
Harassment raids continued thereafter until the end of the month, with the exception of the night of 27 to 28 April, when 34 weapons were released;
• 9 Kh-101/555 fired by Tu-95MS over the Saratov area, of which 6 were shot down;
• 9 Kh-59/69, by tactical fighters from the Black Sea and Belgorod, of which eight were shot down;
• 4 Kinzhal fired by 4 MiG-31K from the Ryazan and Tambov areas;
• 2 S-300 from the Belgorod area;
• 8 Kalibr missiles launched by ships of the Black Sea Fleet, of which 6 were shot down.
Altogether, the following weapons were launched against-, and shot down over Ukraine, during April 2024:
286 Geran-2/Shahed-136; 258 were shot down.
80 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles; 60 were shot down, including:
9 3M54 Kalibr cruise missiles; 7 were shot down;
33 Kh-101/Kh-555; of which 26 were shot down;
32 Kh-59/69 guided missiles; 26 were shot down.
36 S-300 SAMs fired in ballistic mode; none was shot down
10 Iskander-M or NK-23 Hwasong-11; none was shot down.
10 Kinzhal; none was shot down.
6 Kh-22 (or, though less likely: Kh-32); 2 shot down.
The new AI self targeting drone is MASSIVELY important sea change in this war. If Ukraine can produce these fast, before Russia catches up, there will be a slaughter of Z AFVs...
But, isn't 'Bulava' the name of the drone operator unit in the Presidential Brigade, not the drone itself ? Or have they self named a drone after their own handle?
Thank you Tom for your support and the comprehensive review!