The Rush for the African Horn
Hello everybody!
For weeks already, much of my attention is attracted by developments about a part of the World about which nobody cares. Ironically, also a part of the world that’s ‘just few hundreds of kilometres away’ from the scene of a major drama in the neverending war between Israel and its neighbours. However, while much of the public attention is focusing on the latter telenovela - see: the possible renewal of the Israeli-US aggression on Iran - developments on and around the African Horn are largely ignored.
In an attempt to ‘connect the dots’, here the ‘cornerstones’ of this story.
Ah yes, and… what I’m going to describe is near-certain to appear as ‘unlikely’ to many; even some sort of a ‘conspiracy theory’. However, it’s since longer than an alliance between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a well-established fact, and – at least since more recently – publicly confirmed by Israel. Just like it is a well-established fact that both are standing in an alliance with Putin in Russia. Arguably, Israel’s alliance with Russia remains (intentionally) under-reported, but: there are already studies in this regards. On the contrary, the strategic partnership between ‘Dubaigrad’ - frequently described as the ‘most trusted US security partner in the Arab World’, too – and Moscow was nicely described already years ago in the studies like this: Russia and the UAE: An Ideational Partnership and this: The UAE and Russia: Best Friends Forever.
Much of the following is also going to appear ‘unlikely’ because it was nobody less but the Emirati dictator Bin Zayed who was behind the PR-campaign that made the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), ‘great’ in the USA. Including, between others, linking up MbS with the Trump clan. It was also Bin Zayed who was arranging secret negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia (including secret meetings between MbS and Netanyahu).
…’however’, now there is such a deep rift between the two, such deep animosity, that I doubt even the PR China’s skilled mediators might manage a normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE?
Well, such things happen when the Israeli-Emirati alliance become so obvious that MbS and aides have concluded that the Israeli-UAE alliance is a direct threat for themselves and for the sovereignty of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
But, let me start with the start.
The Milk & Honey Dictatorship
I hope I need not explaining the story of Israel establishing itself in a position of economic and military hegemony over the Middle East (though, if necessary: just let me know; I’ll be glad to return to that topic).
The story of the UAE striving in similar direction might need some attention, though. For those who might not know it or have forgotten: officially, the pillar of the UAE’s foreign policy is countering what the Emiratis call the ‘Political Islam’, even ‘subversion of the West by Islamo-Fascists’ (and, thanks to Emirati financial influence: much of ‘the West’ thinks the same way).
This ‘Islamo-Fascism’ is foremost the Muslim Brotherhood: an organisation originating from Egypt that, when ‘mated’ with Wahhabism (state religion in Saudi Arabia and Qatar), and over the time, gave birth to such idiotism like al-Qaeda.
That said, what the UAE is doing has meanwhile next to nothing with countering the MBs and AQ. Foremost, the country is neck-deep into countering any kind of movements that might result in pluralism (or, for your easier understanding: ‘democracy’). The beginnings of this story can be traced back to the times of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ of 2011-2012, when the UAE ran a crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood at home, was involved in the GCC’s intervention on behalf of the King of Bahrain (against the unrest by that country’s majority population that are Shi’a Muslims), and it took part in the NATO-led intervention in Libya. Subsequently, the UAE became the principal supporter of the military coup against the internationally recognised (‘but’, Qatar & Turkey-supported) government in Libya of 2014, and – in cooperation with Egypt – conducted air strikes on the forces of the internationally recognised government from Egyptian air bases.
However, while these developments were catching attention, something else didn’t: this was that fact that, about 10 years ago, the governments of Israel and of the UAE have concluded that, essentially, their interests are very similar.
As result they began pursuing a very clear strategic plan: destabilise and then fragment Arab and other neighbouring states – convert as many as possible into ‘another Libya’: a collection of warring regions with no meaningful central control – indeed: countries that are ungovernable - then establish control over trade routes, thus the financing; finally, establish military presence and thus impose themselves in control.
Yemen
The first scene of joint action became Yemen. Sure, Israel might not be directly involved in the country (except for flying air strikes on the Houthis), but the UAE is neck-deep into fragmenting it at least since 2015. Originally, it was explaining its involvement in the Saudi-Emirati-led military intervention of March 2015 with ‘stopping the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated al-Islah Party’. Then both Dubai and Riyadh have explained their military intervention with the fact that the capital Sana’a fell under the control of ‘Iran-controlled’ (actually: ‘linked’) the Houthi movement (actually calling itself the Ansar Allah).
However, while the Saudis could still argue that they’ve meant that sincerely, the Emiratis certainly have not. For Dubai, this was all just a cover for its actual intention: organise, arm, and support a separatist state in form of the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Headquartered in Mukhalla, this has gradually established itself in control over the huge – but sparsely populated – Hadramawt and al-Mahra Provinces (the two are making almost 50% of Yemeni territory). Over the last eight years, the STC was bolstered not only through the Emirati troop presence, but also through massive shipments of arms. Finally, in mid-December 2025, it was prompted by Dubaigrad into recognising Israel and requesting help from it.
Despite its alliance with the UAE, Saudi Arabia was warning, for years, that it is not going to tolerate the spread of the STC. Even more so because Hadramawt is bordering on Saudi Arabia. As soon as the STC called for help from Israel, MbS and his aides have concluded: they were in the process of being surrounded and if they do not act they’re certain to become one of the next targets of the Israeli-UAE alliance.
In a matter of days, the Saudis have increased their support for the Yemeni National Army (YNA; controlled by the internationally recognised government), and then ordered it into an offensive on the Hadramawt Province. Finally, on 30 December 2025, the Royal Saudi Air Force bombed a large arms and vehicles shipment for the STC (two ships with more than 80 vehicles and containers; sponsored by the UAE), in the port of Mukhalla.
Bin Zayed knows he can’t mess around with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: it’s not only that mere 1 million of the UAE’s population of 10 million are native Emiratis, but: the country can get easily overrun by the Saudi armed forces. Rather unsurprisingly, only hours later, the regime in Dubaigrad announced it’s withdrawing all its forces from Yemen – including the strategically positioned island of Socotra….
Eritrea
Initially during the Saudi-Emirati-led intervention in Yemen of 2015, the UAE sought to use Djibouti as a forward base for operations in the Aden area. However, in April 2015, an ‘altercation’ between the chief of the local air force and the Emiratis derailed relations. Moreover, a jet of the United Arab Emirates Air Force (UAEAF) involved in operations over Yemen, was forced to land at Djibouti-Ambouli International Airport – and did so without official permission. The result was a diplomatic spat, and the Emiratis turning to the lovely, peaceful, and extremely brutal dictatorship in Eritrea instead (BTW, back in the 1990s, the Eritrean dictatorship used to be something like ‘favourite’ of lots of leftists in ‘the West’; ironically, all of its former supporters are very quiet about it, since it became known how much is the same terrorising the local population in fashion comparable only to that of the North Korean dictatorship).
From 2015 until 2021, the Emirati Armed Forces reconstructed the deep-water port and the airport of Assab, in exchange for financial aid to Eritrea. However, by 2021, amid Chinese-mediated negotiations with the Houthis, and the first differences between Dubai and Riyadh, the Emiratis were forced to case their presence: correspondingly, they suddenly withdrew their forces from the country.
Shouldn’t mean they have ceased influencing it: until 2025, the UAE was using Eritrea as a springboard for supporting its proxies both in Ethiopia and in Sudan. However, Bin Zayad then made a mistake and forged a close military partnership with Ethiopia, Eritrea’s arch rival.
Almost unsurprisingly, on 14 January 2025, Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki accused the UAE of being ‘the main force behind Sudan’s instability’, and, few days later, Egypt and Saudi Arabia began establishing ‘deeper security links’ to the country.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia attracted Emirati attention because of its cheap labour force, abundant arable land, and adequate water resources (that with arable land is particularly interesting, because the Emiratis are buying all the arable land in Africa they can only get, and that for some 20+ years now).
Of course, the country’s democracy was a thorn in Bin Zayed’s side, and thus the Emiratis did their best to establish the populist Ahmed Abiy to power: indeed, soon after he won elections and became the prime minister in Addis Ababa, Abiy was decorated by the Order of Zayed Medal, the highest Emirati medal.
To fraction the country, in 2020, a conflict between the central government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front was provoked, during which Eritrean Army - the very same that run a major invasion of Ethiopia thus sparking the Badme War of 1999-2001 (in which Eritrea was deftly defeated by Ethiopia) - deployed its forces on Abiy’s side.
Even once a cessation of hostilities was arranged for 3 November 2023, Eritrean forces remained in control over parts of the Tigray Federal State. Moreover, throughout its duration, this conflict was characterised by widespread war crimes, including ‘extrajudical’ murders of so many civilians that both the Ethiopian and Eritrean Armies were accused of conducting a genocide on the Tigrayans. Tigray was left devastated, and Ethiopia economically exhausted, but hey: no problem. The Emiratis were around to help Abiy’s government buy Sukhoi Su-30MKs overhauled in Belarus, Chinese-made UAVs and other heavy equipment.
Sudan
The UAE denies it, but there is meanwhile no doubt: in Sudan, and together with Russia and Israel, and in violation of international sanctions, the UAE is supporting the ‘paramilitary’ Rapid Support Forces (RSF; actually a broader coalition of Janjaweed militias) led by ‘General’ Hemedti. In April 2023, this launched a coup against the military junta led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (supported by Egypt; sometimes by Ukraine, too). By the end of the year, the RSF controlled much of Khartoum, most of Darfur and was on advance in Kordofan and Gezira. The government forces (Sudanese Defence Force/SDF) and allies (Transitional Sovereignty Council) have regained momentum in 2024: by March 2025, they have cleared all of Khartum and most of Omdurman.
However, in October the last year, the RSF has overran el-Fasher (government stronghold in Darfur), and then instigated a genocide on the 60,000-150,000 locals. Overall, this war created one of worst humanitarian catastrophes of this decade, with 25 million Sudanese suffering from famine, 12 million internally displaced persons, and 3.5 million registered as refugees abroad.
The UAE is using Libya (that is: the east of the country, where its proxy ‘Marshal’ Haftar is in power), and Ethiopia as bases to train RSF-troops and keep them resupplied. The last year, the UAE provided the RSF with Chinese-made FK-2000 short-range SAMs, to counter Turkish-made UAVs operated by the SDF: over the last 8-9 months, these have shot down about a dozen of Akinci and Bayraktars. It was only in recent days that the SDF found a solution and knocked out the first of RSF-operated FK-2000s.
BTW, lately, the junta in Khartoum has announced its intention to buy Sino-Pakistani-made JF-17 fighter-bombers. Where one should keep in mind: 80% [+] of these are made in the PR China. Means: provided this deal is going to be realised, it is likely that, sometimes in the future, Chinese-made FK-2000s operated by the RSF are going to be pitted against Chinese-made JF-17s…
Syria
While the Emirati proxies are savaging much of the African Horn, Syria became an Israeli playground. The plan there was obvious already as of the mid-2025. In south-western Syria, Israel is supporting the Druze militia that’s manufacturing and smuggling drugs into Arab states (primarily via Jordan). In north-eastern Syria, Israel is supporting a terrorist organisation of Turkish Kurds, the PKK (a.k.a. formerly US-supported ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’). Arguably, this part of the plan was spoiled by determined action of the provisional government in Damascus. Last year, the Syrian Army and forces of the Ministry of Interior have massively weakened the Druze militia. Early this year, they also quickly overrun most of north-eastern Syria held by the ‘SDF’. However, the tensions there are not over. Presently, the PKK-sympathisers are spreading lies about collaboration of the provisional government and what was left of the Daesh (a.k.a. IS) in Syria. According to them, the government has left ‘thousands’ of Daesh to flee and is collaborating with the idiots….
Actually, it was the PKK that has failed to de-extremise thousands of the Daesh-members for over a decade; and has failed to ‘democratise’ the areas over its control; then, while collapsing in the face of army’s advance, has left some of the Daesh to escape from prisons; and then the USA took over and bussed thousands of inmates to prisons in Iraq. Additionally, there-four days ago (around 10-12 February), and while withdrawing own troops from the at-Tanf area in Syria, along the border to Jordan – the CENTCOM of the US Armed Forces conducted over 40 air strikes on Daesh cells hiding in the semi-deserts of south-eastern Syria. Finally, Syrian Army and Ministry of Interior are currently combing the same area for survivors.
Right now, it might appear as if the government in Damascus won the upper hand, but don’t worry: both the Israelis and the Russians are at large, and already known to be planning the next effort – probably in cooperation with survivors of the Assadist regime (which used to hide in the PKK-controlled parts of Syria, but now appear to have fled with most of the terrorists over the border to Iraq).
Somalia
Somalia became the newest target of the Israeli-UAE-alliance. On 26 December 2025, Israel officially recognised Somaliland: a para-state including the northern part of the country, which unilaterally declared its independence from the government in Mogadishu. In turn, Somaliland is offering military bases to both Israel and the UAE.
What a surprise then, just two days later, a video surfaced confirming the deployment of three Lockheed-Martin F-16Cs of the Turkish Air Force to Mogadishu.
Meanwhile, there are videos showing the arrival of at least a battalion-worth of Turkish Army’s M48 main battle tanks, plus other forces. Turkey has also announced the deployment of three T.129 Atak helicopter gunships, TB.2 Bayraktar and Akinci UAVs to Somalia.
Finally, Egypt announced it’s about to deploy its army and air force to Somalia, supported by MiG-29M2 fighter jets (from the 104th Tactical Fighter Wing, EAF), Mil Mi-24 attack helicopters (originally acquired by UAE on behalf of Haftar in Libya), and IOMAX AT-802 Airtractors. BTW, on 12 February, the CinC Turkish Air Force and his team, have visited Egypt to meet the CinC Egyptian Air Force.
(BTW, ironically, the Egyptian acquisition of the AT-802s was financed by the Emiratis, back in around 2015: namely, it was the Emiratis who were delighted about this simple but effective COIN-aircraft - primarily on advice from characters that had entries about tours with the ‘Blackwater’ in their CVs - while the Egyptians needed them to combat the Daesh in the Sinai.)
EDIT: have forgotten to upload this map, for your easier orientation. The area controlled or dominated by the Israeli-Emirati alliance (and proxies) is marked yellow; that controlled by the Saudi-Egyptian-Turkish alliance in green.
Now comes the best part…
The government in Mogadishu is supported by the USA for some 30 years now. Not for nothing: it was there - in 1992 - that the US Armed Forces have had their first clash with AQ (see: ‘Battle of Mogadish/Black Hawk Down’). Over the years, the USA (and the collective ‘West’) not only paid for years-long deployments of the Rwandan and Ugandan armed forces in the country (within scope of a mission by the African Union), but were welcoming successive Kenyan and Ethiopian military interventions, too.
With other words: what Ankara and Cairo (and, possibly: Riyadh, too) are doing now, is nothing else but continuation of the same. Supporting the internationally recognised government in its war against the terror by the AQ-linked ash-Shabaab. Moreover, it’s not like if Turkey is supporting Somalia since late January: it’s involved at least since 2020, when it began delivering Kirpi armoured vehicles, logistical trucks, ammunition, heavy weapons and command and control equipment - and nobody was complaining.
But now, the deployment of Turkish troops to Somalia is causing a sort of ‘public outcry’ – in the ‘specialised’ US press. For example, and at the same time Turkish Air Force’s F-16s were also defending the NATO’s eastern flank by their deployment in the Baltic, the author of this feature is crying about the ‘Turkish betrayal’ and complaining that Ankara’s focus is ‘no NATO defence’: indeed, he declared it for ‘anti-American’ and ‘Islamist empowerment’, before (together with his editor) becoming fired up enough to start babbling about ‘Syria’s Ahmed al-Shabaab’ (ash-Shabaab are the above-mentioned Somali- and expatriate terrorists linked to the AQ and fighting the government in Mogadishu for some 30 years now), and concluding that Erdogan ‘treats… Trump and… Barrack as useful idiots’…
One is left to wonder: how comes? Why is it ‘anti-American’ for Turkey to continue doing something the USA were doing for decades?
…except that’s disturbing the Israel-UAE alliance…?
To make sure: despite complaints in that direction, nope, I’m not ‘paid by the MIT’ (Turkish top intel and security agency), nor ‘supportive’ for what are Egypt and Turkey doing in Somalia. Simply commenting this just like I’m commenting what are Israel and the UAE doing there.
Point is: Israel and the UAE thought they can continue as they like, without any problems. Well, for years: they could. ‘But’ and ‘now’ (i.e. since December 2025), Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey have concluded that the Israeli-Emirati efforts to establish presence – and thus dominance – over the local choke points are a threat for their national security.
This is having not just ‘local’ effects. Don’t forget that in late 2025, Saudi Arabia also signed a strategic agreement with Pakistan, while the Dubaigrad signed a strategic agreement with New Delhi.
…and nearly all of them (bar Turkey, ‘of course’) are ‘best friends’ of the USA, too…
With other words: the Season 2026 of the telenovela Earth, Humanity & Idiotic Greed, is promising to become highly interesting, and much of its outcome is near-certain to be decided by protagonists you are unlikely to have ever heard about.
It took forever for MbS led KSA to wake up about the danger Israel and its UAE servant represent to the Saudi throne.
But he, he was apparently too much busy playing video games, his self declared passion, up to buying Electronic Arts.
I have always found the MbS - MbZ bro-romance to be stupidly suicidal from the Saudi perspective. During the past decade, Emiratis made no secret about their ambition to become regional hegemon trhough their alliance with Israel. And that would mechanicaly involve taking over KSA and breaking it appart into smaller tribal states.
Tom you mention Algeria in your conclusion but you did not mention any Algerian action taken to counter the ever expanding Israeli led aggression on the Muslim world. ;)
Sorry for briging that rabbit hole but the EpsteIn affair (whom for reason the entirety of Western media decided to pronounce Epstine to reduce the jewish consonnance of the name) gave a funny light on the MAK.
MAK stand for French "Mouvement pour l’autodétermination de la Kabylie", in English "Movement for the Self-Determination of Kabylie", because nothing says Amazigh ethno nationalism like using French for the name of your cessessionist movement totally not created artificially by hostile foreign power. It was founded in June 2001. Fun note, the founded was arrested in Algeria for fraudulent sport betting. Last december, it pronounced Kabylia independance in Paris, France, because, again, nothing says self determination and ethno national independance like proclaiming it in previous the colonial occupant's capital.
Anyway, a man named Daniel Amar appear in the Epstain files. Born in Algeria proper, he moved to France in the early 1980s. He obtained the French citizenship first and later the Sweden citizenship as well. But most importantly, he became MEK representative in the UAE where he appeared to have, among other business, been involved into sending human cattle (aka girls) to Epstein.
TBH, everybody with 2 brain cells already knew the MEK is a artificial movement created by foreign states hostiles against Algeria. But it is sort of funny to have it proven in the open this sordid way.
Funny how all the dots connects to that Epstein dude.
On a side note, our French media spent the last days emphazing the Algerian origin of this man and conviniently avoiding a) his French and Swedish nationalities b) his renegation of his algerian identity as an Amazigh ethno nationalist c) his belonging to an obscur secessionist organization only supported by anti Algerian and viciously anti Muslims political actors whom are all gathered around Israel.
You wrote: «One is left to wonder: how comes? Why is it ‘anti-American’ for Turkey to continue doing something the USA were doing for decades?» Several reasons. 1) Lack of permission 2) This behavior being against either American or Israeli interest 3) Hypocrisy. At least these. Not mutually exclusive of course.