The (preliminary) End of Protesting in Iran
Hello everybody!
Once upon the time, in the land beyond beyond, there was King Dumb Dumb. And he’s had a major problem. So much so, he’s had to at least postpone, if not outright cancel an invasion - or ‘at least’ a military intervention - in the land named Iran….
Yes, it does seem that Prince Bibi’s and King Dumb Dumb’s ‘invasion’ of Iran is not goign to take place. By side that both - plus the ‘actual prince’ Reza Pahlavi - have repeatedly shown that their level of ‘information’ and ‘knowledge’ about Iran are similar to that of the majority of expatriate Iranians (and others, foremost including the Israelis) - read: that they’ve got no trace of clue what’s going on in Iran, nor can care less to inform themselves - but: especially King Dumb Dumb was facing numerous problems, you know.
On 9 and 10 January, the IRGC-regime quickly massacred few dozens of thousands: as a ‘warning’ to the others. If it couldn’t get them on the streets, then it sent its thugs to drive up and down the roads and randomly shoot at whoever wsa around. Wherever that was not enough, the regime thugs were combing hospitals: removing injured protesters and summarily executing them outside. Then they’ve put thousands of bodies on display - wherever they only could, and that while cashing, deftly, from selling bodies to the families/relatives/friends that wanted to pick up these and bury them. This, de-facto, stopped protesting. At the same time, the regime began jamming the StarLink, was successful in either killing, jailing, or forcing leaders of protests to flee, has organised counter-protests etc..
Finally, not only that the protesting caught the Pentagon with its trousers down - and thus the US armed forces haven’t really had ‘what it takes’ in position (for example, not a single aircraft carried was anywhere near the Persian Gulf) - but by the time the White House was ready to act, it was also receiving lots of calls from King Dumb Dumb’s major buddies and investors in the area - see such fanatic and practicising pluralists like Erdogan, Emir al-Thani of Qatar, and Mohammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. All people renowned as horny for having a major ‘democracy’ right at their door-step.
…eventually, King Dumb Dumb was reduced to ‘standing with Iranians’.
Where the emphasis was on standing. And doing nothing.
For me, this was a very interesting affair, exposing almost all the factors important for the state of affairs in the Middle East of these days. Gauging by your questions and commentary, the same was valid for many readers of this blog, too. Therefore, would like to address a few.
Iranians - those in Iran, and willing to protest, but especially expatriates: sad fact is that 15 years since similar protests in Syria, the Iranians (as well as 99.9% of the public in the country and abroad) are still blissfully unaware of the fact that back in 2011 (and then well into 2012) the Assadist regime reacted in exactly the same fashion to mass demonstrations like the IRGC-regime did it now: brutal violence and mass murder.
Considering the presence of several hundreds of IRGC-advisors in Syria at the time, actually, this is no surprise. Or should be none.
Still, thanks to - between others - systematic denial of the IRGC’s presence in Syria - by the Oblablah Administration, by the Kind Dumb Dumb’s Administration, and by the Biden Administration alike (indeed: even by the Israeli governments) - this remains unknown.
With other words: it’s the Iranians who did not know that ‘their’ IRGC was mass-murdering Syrians, back in 2011-2012, and thus would never come to the idea that ‘their’ IRGC would do so in Iran now. Unsurprisingly, the mass-murder of protesters caught the Iranian protesters entirely unprepared and quickly silenced them. They were shocked by the extension to which the IRGC was ready to mass-murder them while they’re protesting.
What’s worse: both the protesting Iranians and those abroad, are absolutely clueless about the IRGC-regime and its methods of operations, not to talk about how to organise themselves. More specifically, and for example, they have no ideas about outmanoeuvring the regime’s street-blockades, rapid scattering followed by resumption of protests at other spots, and similar ‘tactics’ (applied, for example, by Syrians in 2011-2012), and are also (very) ill-advised in regards of picking themselves international supporters.
Sadly, this means that both the protesting Iranians and their supporters abroad are unlikely to realise that the IRGC-regime can’t be toppled through ‘loud’ activism in the social media, nor by US bombs and cruise missiles, or Israel’s Mossad and its assassinations, and certainly not by all sorts of wishful thinking and daydreaming - but only through a well-organised, unified, massive action from the inside.
By Iranians.
Just like Assad was (eventually) toppled by Syrians.
Not by anybody else. In this regards, conclusion is crystal clear: Iranians are on their own.
(You don’t like to hear that? Oh, how bad - for you, but especially for thousands of Iranian protesters mass-murdered by the IRGC-regime.)
This is of particular importance considering that - even if the IRGC-regime would be ‘in its death throes’, as so many say - gauging by the participation of some 14-17 million of voters in the last elections in the IRI, at least some segment of the Iranian population still believes in the ‘Islamic Republic’.
Unsurprisingly, the regime was never ‘short on manpower’ during this wave of protests. At most, it needed somebody ready to pull the trigger and machine-gun masses of unarmed civilians.
As usual - see ‘classic examples’ like the Soviet military interventions in Hungary of 1956 and Czechoslovakia of 1968, or the Tienanmen Massacre in Beijing of 1989 - it solved the problem through bringing in ‘foreigners’: people not personally affiliated with those protesting. In the case of Iran of 2026, that solution was the Katayib Hezbollah: the ‘Hezbollah Iraq’, which sent (reportedly) at least ‘50 busses carrying 60 militants each’.
Make no mistake: this should never meant that it was the Katayib Hezbollah ‘only’ that was machine-gunning unarmed protesters en masse. Far from that.
Indeed - or ‘even if’ (the USA would have attacked) - many seem to have naively expected that the ‘cumulative effect’ of mass protesting in Iran, ‘combined’ with a US military intervention, plus Israel’s clandestine operations, would be ‘enough’ to topple the IRGC-regime. That this would strain the regime to the breaking point.
This is nothing short of stupid. Simply because, the IRGC does not consist of ‘few thousands of motorcycle-mounted Basiji’ - which which I’m moving into answering the questions from those who were asking for an assessment of the Iranian military capabilities.
As first, the IRGC: this is including the Cyber Security Command/SAVAMA/Ministry of Information, the Qods Force (the ‘foreign affairs department’), the 20,000-strong Airspace Force (IRGC’s own air- and missile force), the 20,000-strong IRGC Navy, the 150,000-strong IRGC Ground Force, and the Nuclear Protection Corps (units tasked with protection of nuclear facilities). The IRGC barely deployed anything of this: its primary tool of smashing protests was the Basij Corps, which - depending on assessment in question - might count as many as 600,000 (which in turn depends on the level of its mobilisation).
With other words: the IRGC alone has had more than enough troops to smash the protests on its own. Even without the General Command of the Law Enforcement (a.k.a. the ‘Police’). It brought in the Khatayib Hezbollah merely because these illiterate stupids have it easy to shoot at unarmed civilians. That’s all worth knowing in this regards.
When it comes to the issues of Integrity of the IRI, it’s only after all the branches listed above that the ‘regular’ armed forces of Iran - which, contrary to the IRGC, are neither trained nor tasked with ensuring the integrity and safety of the IRI - start to ‘matter’. The ‘regulars’ (a.k.a. Artesh in Farsi) are including the 340,000-strong Army, the 15,000-strong IRI Air Defence Force, the 30,000-strong IRIAF (air force), and the 20,000-strong IRIN (navy). AFAIK, none of them became involved in smashing the protests - but also not in countering the IRGC.
This is so because while the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (IRIA) might have more troops under arms than the IRGC does (when the latter is not fully mobilised): its commanders were carefully hand-picked by the IRGC. For their loyalty. Not for their merits or skills or anything else.
Unsurprisingly, while there were single Army-soldiers taking part in protesting (in their off time), it was naive to expect the IRIA to come to the rescue of the protesters.
Not only that the USA decided to ‘stand by Iranians’, but Israel eventually followed in fashion. Word is that a sort of ‘I’ll not attack you if you don’t attack me’-arrangement between Iran and Israel was reached via - who else - Moscow.
In this regards, cannot but remind: not only that Netanyahu and Pudding are buddies, but anybody who considers Iran a ‘paper tiger’ is simply ignorant of all the damage caused by Iranian ballistic missiles to Israel during the ‘12-Days War’ of the last June. Indeed, I would recommend a closer check of the damage the Iranian missiles have caused to Israel. Sure, until today, the IDF is refusing to discuss what of its bases have been hit and how much damage was caused there; at most, one can catch a few clues from the Israeli media (though then has to follow this extremely carefully). Moreover, it took the collective effort of all the possible Western companies providing commercial satellite imagery to hide this fact. Nevertheless, once the dust settled, it still became clear that the Israelis were lying about 'no damage' and '90-100% of Iranian missiles shot down'. Moreover, the amount of damage to civilian objects grew so much that the Netanyahu government turned off the website existent for the purpose of claiming the same from the government - because this was 'revealing' too much. And that damage went into billions.
Finally, while the Israelis were claiming 'full aerial superiority from the border (to Iraq) to Tehran', they didn't dare flying their manned jets deeper than 40-50km into the Iranian airspace even on the last day of that war - i.e. after US strikes. They were only sending their UAVs there. Which means that, despite all of their telegenic claims, the mass of the IRGCASF and the IRIADF was still intact and operational.
Alas, ‘anybody who says the Iranian missiles were effective is just an anti-Semite’, right?
Well, dear professionals (in particular): that’s the perfect recipe for distorted- and thus completely useless-, totally unrealistic intelligence, which is then undermining both the politics and military action… and can easily result in dozens of thousands of massacred protesters.
Besides, who’s said Israel is ‘horny’ about ‘helping establish democracy’ in Iran? Since when, and based on what matters of fact?
Unsurprisingly: expecting Israel ‘to come to the rescue of Iranian protesters’ - cannot but be summarised as ‘endlessly naive’. Even ‘deadly naive’.
The majority of expatriate Iranians is meanwhile bitterly complaining about ‘deafening silence’ of the international media both about protesting and about the mass murder instigated by the IRGC-regime.
Now, by side that all the possible mainstream media (apparently: all the platforms about which people are usually paying attention) is full of reports about Iran. Actually, my impression is that especially here in Europe the platforms in question were more than pleased to conclude they ‘need not to care any more’ about the Zionist genocide on the Palestinians, and can now, ‘finally’, ‘report about those disgusting Iranian Mullahs massacring dozens of thousands of fine young Iranians’.
Because, and between others, in countries like the UK and Germany, it’s ‘against the law’ (indeed: ‘supporting terrorism) to protest against the Zionist genocide on Palestinians, but - de-facto - perfectly welcome to cheer and support that genocide.
Moreover, one should keep in mind that the majority of our ‘free’ media (between 80% here in the EU and 95% in the USA) is privately owned, and so disinterested in _seriously informing_ it customers, that they’ve all killed their foreign desks, already years ago. Correspondingly, they can neither offer serious information, nor dependable analysis. Plus, all the possible ‘Experten’ about Iran haven proven themselves as wishful thinkers. Thus, the mass of the media has not even the clue about what questions to ask, not to talk about where.
Usually expressed right after complaints about the lack of reporting are complaints about inaction of foreign governments and international bodies.
Here the question is: Why the apparent lack of action?
And: Who should act and how?
Well, it’s neither the UN’s job, nor was the organisation ever created and equipped to go bombing/invading countries for the purpose of saving people protesting against ‘their’ murderous regimes. Otherwise, there would be another ‘UN intervention’ every 2-3 months.
(Simply because the majority of countries on this planet are dictatorships.)
Considering such interventions are out of fashion at least since the DR Congo of the early 1960s, conclusion is on hand: the majority of UN-members has concluded that they do not want such operations.
Furthermore, shall King Dumb Dumb go saving Iranian protesters at the time he’s on the best way of dismantling whatever was left of ‘democracy’ in the USA after decades of systematic political corruption? …and when his fascist ICE is short of doing the same in the USA?
Well, perhaps after he’s ‘sorted out the USA’, but surely not right away.
And the ‘super-turbo Israeli military capabilities’ - were fully exposed during Israel’s aggression on Iran the last year in June, when they couldn’t semi-finish the job without the USA. Shit happens, as they say, and it seems that fighting a war against a country 1,000km away might be a little bit different than staging assassinations...?
(Who would ever think, eh?)
Besides, who’s ever told you a UN, or US, or Israeli intervention would bring any good to Iran? You’ve never checked the results of the UN interventions in the DR Congo, just for example? Or US interventions in some 50-60 countries over the last 80 years? Never checked what happened to Grenada, Panama, Iraq, Afghanistan etc...? Or all of the Israeli aggression in 80 years of history of that colonial enterprise?
What’s left? NATO? This is frozen already for 12 months. Thanks to King Dumb Dumb. Means: NATO can’t, effectively, act because it’s involving the USA and nobody in Europe trusts the USA since 12 months already. Because the intel services know that King Dumb Dumb is known as ‘Asset Krasnov’ - in Russia. I.e. that he’s an asset of the Russian FSB/SVR already since the late 1980s; at least since the times he was money-laundering KGB/FSB’s savings through selling them different pieces of real estate in the USA….
EU? EU is busy saving Ukraine, and white-washing the Zionist genocide on the Palestinians, thanks for asking. It’s no military power, though, nor meant to be one - and even less so one launching expeditionary interventions 1,500+ km away from home.
Overall: if you like, dear Iranians, feel free to be resentful - but against those characters that have brought you and all of us all into this situation. They’re not many: some 62-65, of which about 45 in the USA, the rest in the EU. All are super-rich Nazis, experts in tax-avoidance and/or convicted felons, mostly child-molesters, too (thanks Epstein) etc. - and yet: they own more than 50% of what is to own on this planet.
Including the politics and the media.
Oh, wait... isn’t that the same media you expect to cry about massacred Iranian protesters, 24/7...?
Damn...
Historically, successful revolutions have been carried out either by the military or by mature people who had previously attempted a revolution. That is, by those who already had practical experience. And the youth and students, they are too naive. I don't know of a single successful student revolution that ended in success. Therefore, the result of the Iranian revolution was immediately obvious to me. For example, you can go back in time and remember what the regime did to the students who came out to protest when the Iranian army shot down a Ukrainian plane, belonging to Igor Kolomoisky's company "UIA" with Iranians on board. The mullahs' regime shot over one and a half thousand students and imprisoned over twenty thousand protesters. So supporting the Iranian protests is like supporting the student protests in Hong Kong. What does it do? Nothing, really. First, they are too few to overthrow the government. Second, they have no weapons, no real leaders, no experience, no plan for how to seize power and what to do next. I, of course, feel very sorry for these Iranian youth who are striving for a better future for themselves, but they clearly had no chance for purely objective reasons. Their main mistake is naivety and gullibility. In this, they even reminded me somewhat of the student revolution on Maidan in 2013, when the elite first organized the anti-Maidan, then allowed the police, together with internal troops and criminal elements, to quietly kill protesters, and when that didn't work, they ordered the special services and security forces to shoot people. When more people began to join the protests after the shock of the mass killings in the center of Kyiv and killings in other regions of Ukraine, Yanukovych fled to Crimea and then to Rostov-on-Don. Other oligarchic clans filled the power vacuum by leading the protests. More precisely, they declared themselves the main ones in these protests through their media. Thus, the oligarchy in Ukraine prevented the complete destruction of the system, preserved its assets, and deceived the protesters. This is what happens during all anarchic transitional periods. Usually, those who start revolutions perish if they are unable to bring the revolution to its logical conclusion and seize power. Either a counterrevolution immediately follows, ending in a cycle of revolutions, or another force comes along, seizes power, and restores order.
There's a lot of hypocrisy going around. If the West cared about the Iranian people they could remove the sanctions. This would greatly improve the economy. Provided of course that they bury the hatchet with Israel (at least provisionally) and agree to strict monitoring of their nuclear program. In the long run, this normalization could gradually lead to the evolution in the society and the change of the type of government.