Syria, 7 December 2024: Homs Falling (too) & Where is the SyAAF?
And the final one for today…
Perhaps you are going to be surprised, even disappointed now, but the last feature for today is going to be ‘dominated’ by answers to a question from a colleague: ‘and, where is the Syrian Arab Air Force?’ (SyAAF)
Oh dear…
Don’t worry, I can understand this question. For example, both in South Vietnam of 1975, and in South Yemen of 1994, the air forces fought to the last minute, to the last bullet, and the last operational aircraft. Indeed, they both fougth even once the regime they’ve served has fallen…
Have no doubts: it’s the same with the SyAAF now, too.
Just because the incompetent media in the West didn’t catch any of related videos, nor any of news about SyAAF’s latest ‘achievements’, and now everybody is busy reporting about the downfall of the Assadist regime, doesn’t mean the flying Assadists didn’t continue their dirty work. Indeed, the flying militia of mass-murderers once known as the Syrian Arab Air Force - the ‘armed force’ the written orders of which are always beginning with addressing ‘Ba’ath Squadrons’ (as designation for units) - has continued bombing and killing civilians the whole day today.
For example in the north: the people there say ‘Russian aircraft’, but there are no videos nor photos, so nobody actually knows who bombed the Türkish-supported SNA in the Qabaisn area, in north-eastern Aleppo.
Then, Hama this afternoon: a strike with cluster bomb units (CBUs) directly into the centre of the city. Once again, it’s the ‘Russian warplanes’ that are blamed, but there are no photos or videos to confirm this.
Talbiseh and Rastan were hit heavily, too. There are no photos nor videos, thus hard to say who was the perpetrator, though.
However, just few kilometres further south…. over Termaala the cloud cover was high enough, and then lookie here: Su-22 of the SyAAF (the Russians are not flying these old ‘flying tanks’). To make sure, here a still from that video:
Another video, from downtown Homs… can’t find the link any more, but have made a still from it, and see here: Su-24MK2 of the SyAAF:
Bottom line: I’m not entirely sure about exact numbers (the White Helmets are not present in most of the places bombed today), but about a dozen of dead civilians, including several children.
***
How do I know the Su-24 visible above is from the SyAAF, no VKS?
Several reasons.
Su-24 is an aircraft that can sweep its wings, depending on the speed at which it is operated. The Russians always bomb from high altitude, but while flying slow. They have to fly slow so the fire-control systems of their old aircraft have a serious chance to release free-fall bombs with any kind of precision (especially considering altitude of 5,000-6,000 metres at which they’re usually operating). Therefore, wings of the Russian Su-24s are always fully spread forward. On the Su-24MK2 visible above, wings are swept half-way back and the jet zoomed over Homs at less than 700 metres altitude. No Russians would risk flying that low over insurgent-held areas. That’s making this an Assadist jet.
Should there be any doubts: back in 2016, I’ve created ‘ID cards’ of the following kind, explaining this with help of two inserted photos. Their tactics never changed ever since: there was no need, because civilians and hospitals they were bombing most of the time were entirely unprotected from air strikes.
Bottom line: at least the flying Assadists have continued bombing civilians the whole day.
However, contrary to the South Vietnamese and the South Yemenis, Assadists remrained faithful to their usual expertise: if they’ve tried to hit the insurgents - for example those in the Homs area - they remained entirely ineffective.
How do I know?
Because after bitterly resisting the last night and this morning, this afternoon, surviving Assadist ground forces began falling back from Homs: the mass is withdrawing down the M1 Highway in direction of Tartous. This evening, insurgents are in the process of mopping up northern and central Homs: we’re going to see if they might find any kind of opposition left in the city by the morning.
***
Meanwhile, during the afternoon, the SyAAF re-focused its attention to evacuating:
Shayrat AB (50km south of Homs; Su-22s and MiG-23s)
T-4/Tiyas AB (150km east of Homs; Su-24s)
Dmeyr (80km north of Damascus; MiG-23BNs, MiG-29s)
Bases further south - foremost Khelkhleh (south of Damascus IAP; basing MiG-23s and Mi-25 helicopter gunships), and Thaleh (Suwayda) - were overrun by insurgents without any resistance. Haven’t seen any videos showing the aircraft or helicopters abandoned there, yet: thus, can’t say how much was evacuated.
Indeed, presently, I do not know where have the Assadists flown all the remaining operational aircraft and helicopters, but, I do dare guessing that the probable destination was the Hmeymim AB. Because there was simply no other air base in Syria left under their control. Of course, we’re going to find out tomorrow or a day after.
Whenever the Assadist regime is definitely down, its air force is going to be completely destroyed by the insurgency. I doubt even a rock is gong to remain standing of it (even though I do hope somebody might save at least some of its documentation: as a historian, I would love working myself through the same).
Point is: it was already Hafez al-Assad (a former Gloster Meteor- and MiG-17-pilot) who converted the Dmeyr Air Base into his personal fortress, back in 1965-1967; he also converted the Air Force Intelligence into his private security service, and - ever since - also the most murderous of all in Syria. A part of me does not want to know for how many Syrians were murdered by this air force over 59 years of Assadist terror.
That much for today. It was a very, very long day.
Have a good night, everybody.
Since there seems to be hardly any resistance in Damascus so far, the Syrian Mediterranean coast will apparently actually become the Assadists' last stronghold, regardless of how the soldiers who fled from the south managed to get there. According to local reports, the high-ranking officials from the Al-Shayrat Air Base have now been brought to the coast by helicopter.
It is quite possible that the Khmeimim Air Base will be the Assad regime's last seat of government. This is currently being hastily evacuated by the Russians by sea and air.
Thank you for your reports. It is simply astonishing on all levels how quickly an entire country with millions of people can be turned upside down and how a small spark of hope (the rapid fall of Aleppo) can get thousands of people up and running, so that the actually feared military has no chance.
Thank you Tom.
Have a good night, Tom!
Thank you for the good news.