'Suez 1956' - all over again?
Hello everybody!
As usually, ‘major developments’ are taking place whenever I’m absent. So also in the case of the Iranian-Israeli soap opera (with the USA and the UAE in supportive roles): was absent for only two days, and there was already a ‘cease-fire’… where, certain parties cased, and other(s) fired…
But OK: now there are these ‘indirect’ or ‘proxy’ negotiations in Islamabad. Lets check how comes and how far are these…
According to an article in the Financial Times, published yesterday, IQ47 became horny to have a cease-fire - for a war he’s started on, de-facto, Netanyahu’s command - as early as of 21 March (the same day, ‘BTW’, IQ47 also threatened to ‘destroy the Iranian power plants’ for the first time).
Reasons?
According to the same article: worries about oil prices and Iran’s resilience. Seems, the IRGCASF’s counter-strike on petrochemical industry of the UAE and Qatar, in retaliation for Israel (and, almost certainly: the UAE) striking the Iranian petrochemical industry.
Along the same article, members of IQ47’s administration then concluded that he might be more likely to accept a cease-fire if this was ‘mediated’ or even announced by... (drums) ...Pakistan. (Yes, the same country that was idolizing IQ47 the last year in May, for saving it from India’s wrath…)
Around the same time, the Iranian civilian authorities (foremost the President and the FM) were (still) ready for some concessions (probably the same like during negotiations mediated with Oman, back in late February).
Problem: the ‘Supreme Lader’ (Mojtaba Khamenei), but especially the IRGC - was not. Not only Mojtaba, but Ghalibaf, and all of the new IRGC command were not ready to any kind of agreement. If at all - some say: due to the pressure from Beijing - they’ve insisted that an IRGC officer must be a part of any negotiating team. Eventually, the choice fell on Ghalibaf.
What a surprise considering that, when one is then reading the Israeli media... for example the I24... turns out the IDF officials are confirming - almost word-for-word - something I’ve concluded already back around 3-6 March: that since Khamenei’s death, the IRGC-regime in Tehran is ‘more extremist’ and (quote), ‘less responsive to political considerations’.
Over the following days, something like ‘preliminary indirect/proxy’ negotiations began. Via Pakistan. During the same, the IRGC-regime forwarded its ‘10-point peace plan’ to the USA. This was ‘leaked’ in the public around 5-6 April, well before anything similar was then released by the Pakistani PM Sharif:
Pay attention about the Point 3: End of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
From my point of view, this is one of most racist- and most hypocrite aspects of this war. Ranking second after Israeli genocide on Palestinians.
In ‘the West’, in particular - but around the world too - we’re used to positioning, statements, and insistence like ‘Israel has the right to exist’, ‘Israel has the right to be safe’ etc… but: has anybody ever said the same for the Lebanese? And then for the Lebanese Shi’a?
By side that the idea with ‘country XY has the right to exist’ is actually laughable: no country is granted such a right, no matter by what law or regulation. It’s the PEOPLE who have the right to exist. Which is where reading some of books from the ‘reading list’ I’ve posted (almost) two years ago, might become handy: when, for example, one reads Provence’s The Last Ottoman Generation and Barr’s A Line in the Sand, one quickly finds out that when carving out Lebanon from Syria, back in the 1920s, the French - against best advice from the very locals ‘on behalf of which’ they’ve created Lebanon (Lebanese Christians) - added the southern and south-eastern part of the country. Full of Muslims.
Of course, back at the time, none of the noble idiots doing such things would ever come to the idea to find out there are two major sects in Islam (Sunni & Shi’a).
Meh, why care, right? Was no problem back in 1920s: even the vaunted super-fantastic Israeli intelligence services were not aware of this fact until around 1981-1982 (for this, you might want to read the book here). Fact is, however: this made the country that even nowadays many think is ‘Christian’ or ‘predominantly Christian’ - actually: one that is predominantly populated by the Muslims. Indeed, according to US State Department’s estimates from 2023, by making around 32.2% of the population, the Shi’a are the biggest ethno-religious group of Lebanon (the Sunni are the second, with another 31.2%… Christians - all together - make perhaps 24-25%).
And then, when one reads Green’s book Living by the Sword, one cannot avoid running into a ‘list’ of massive Israeli air- and artillery strikes of the 1970s (all in the name of ‘obliterating the Palestine Liberation Organisation/PLO’) - that savaged most of southern Lebanon, killing thousands of the Lebanese Shi’a. Which is what then - what a surprise in a country where every ethno-religious group has had its own militia already since the 1950s - resulted in the emergence of such militias like Amal. Which, few years- and reorganisations later (including a period during which Amal was supported ‘even’ by the Shah of Iran), became the Hezbollah. Add Bergman’s The Secret War with Iran, and you’re going to find out that it was Israel that provoked the war with Iran, starting in 1980-1981 - ‘even if only indirectly’: because its allies, the Maronite Christians, hijacked and bestially tortured, and then murdered Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon. Which the IRGC concluded: the Maronites wouldn’t do without Israel’s permission…
Yes: Israel first mass-murdered the Lebanese Shi’a, and then provoked the war with Iran that’s going on until this very day.
Now, I can understand if there are idiots still insistent that ‘this all began on 7 October 2023’. I can understand if many (especially ‘in the West’, but also in Eastern Europe and all the way to India) are convinced this is not truth; that Hezbollah is something like ‘Iranian proxy’, a ‘foreign and terrorist body/group inserted by Iran in Lebanon’ etc., and that therefore Iran has nothing to say in this regards. The Lebanese government (which is dominated by the Maronite Christians, who are Israel’s allies) is going to promptly agree with all of them. Unsurprisingly, the Israelis can’t stop repeating that the Lebanese government wants to disarm the Hezbollah.
Simple fact is that almost 80 years of systematic indoctrination with lies and fabrications have to have their effects.
I can also understand those who are better informed, and thus pointing out there are IRGC-officers serving in the Hezbollah (at least since the 1990s), and that the organisation was always strongly influenced by the clergy from Qom (in Iran). However, fact is that the Hezbollah is deeply ‘embedded’ in Lebanon, as a force standing for the rights of the Lebanese Shi’a. And not only the Shi’a: many of Lebanese Christians ‘like’ the Hezbollah because they are convinced the same was protecting them from the Daesh (IS/ISIS/ISIL/IGIL) when the latter was overrunning much of Syria, back in 2015-2017. That, BTW, is the part which you’re not going to read often - especially not ‘in the West’: what a surprise where the same is ignoring Israel’s ethnic cleansing of the last Palestinian Christians from the West Bank, too…
Why am I explaining all of this?
No, I’m neither a fan of the IRGC, nor of the Hezbollah, nor paid by SAVAMA/Ministry of Information or similar BS (have heard all of such accusations, plenty of times).
I’m explaining this because my standpoint is simple: same rights for everybody. If Israel has the right to be safe, then its neighbours must have exactly the same right. Then one can’t look the other way while Israel is genociding and/or massacring (enter the group of your preference) around, but complain and cry when the group in question hits back upon Israel.
…and because the cold matter of fact is that one can’t expect the IRGC-regime to now, all of a sudden, and after finding itself exposed to all-out Israeli aggression, start trusting Israel is going to cease mass-murdering the Lebanese Shi’a. Even if one ignores Israel’s ongoing genocide on Palestinians (nah, this didn’t stop, despite that farcical cease-fire in the Gaza Strip), the bestial Israeli air strikes on Beirut, three days ago (massacring over 300… including lots of Christians… and where the actual number of casualties is still unknown: so many are still missing under the rubble) are speaking more than clear language.
(For those - including the president of Lebanon - who are complaining that the IRGC-regime is thus violating the Lebanese sovereignty: well, I cannot but recommend expressing similar complaints when the Israeli Air Force is considering it a norm to violate the same sovereignty some 300 times, every single day… and that would be just the start of the list completed by the USA, UK, France etc. doing the same, regularly, for decades already. Resulting in Lebanon becoming a failed state… all provided it was ever anything else.)
OK, having cleared that, lets move on to the next point: after all, these negotiations in Islamabad are going on - and there are lots of countries/nations are might end being forced to swallow their results, no matter what…
On 7 April, while announcing an ‘immediate ceasefire’, the Pakistani PM presented - essentially - the same list of Iranian conditions as circulated already days before. Moreover, this list was accepted by IQ47:
As the CBS has reported yesterday, although
IQ47 was told the ceasefire would apply to the entire Middle East, including Lebanon, and
regardless what has Sharif announced, and IQ47 confirmed, and
regardless of the White House confirming to the CBS News that Israel has also agreed with the terms of the ceasefire,
…Netanyahu then called IQ47 and the latter, all of a sudden, changed his mind. Of course, not IQ47, but his vice, JD Vance, then explained to the reporters that there was a ‘legitimate misunderstanding’… and so, Israel went on and massacred 300+ in Beirut.
You find this ‘OK’?
I do not.
As next, please, be so kind and at least do not ignore this: two days ago, The Times of Israel has announced that Netanyahu’s corruption process is to be resumed on Sunday (i.e. tomorrow).
Besides the fact that Sunday is a working day in Israel: the corruption process against Netanyahu - who is also sought by the ICJ for Crimes against Humanity (read: War Crimes) - was stopped due to what the Israelis are terming with the ‘Iran War’ (read, the tripartite aggression on Iran, starting with 28 February 2026).
What a surprise then, Netanyahu is horny to continue ‘at least’ the war in Lebanon, to delay that process against him again - although it’s meanwhile clear the IDF cannot destroy Hezbollah?
Atop all of this, and although Sharif wrote ‘immediate’ (ceasefire), the Israelis and Emiratis continued bombing Iran for hours longer. Sure, the Kuwaitis were complaining about Iranian strikes, ‘too’, but: fact is that the IRGC - which is usually boasting with every single of its attacks, and that in advance - denied to have launched any. Indeed: it announced an ‘extensive and hard response’ for the evening of 8 April, but then cancelled the same.
…according to the Pakistanis: on their request. According to few orders: on request from Beijing.
And so, today, and after the PR Chinese have convinced Ghalibaf (and Vahidi & Co KG GesmbH AG) to fly to Islamabad and negotiate with the USA, they did so. Latest reports are that the first round of talks took 1 hour and 20 minutes: three committees were created, and these are presently meeting separately to ‘discuss technical issues’.
Meanwhile, the Hormuz remains ‘almost closed’: there’s some minimal traffic.
Outcome of this war?
Somewhere, it’s simple: despite their indisputable military superiority vis-a-vis Iran, it was the US-Israel-UAE alliance - the same party that initiated this war of aggression - that requested a cease-fire and then accepted Iranian conditions as these were. Regardless what are IQ47 and Netanyahu babbling and doing ever since, it did so although failing to reach even one of its objectives: the IRGC-regime is now even more extremist than it was before 28 February; it’s still got its missile program; and it’s still got its nuclear program - although much of the latter is at least badly damaged. And the Emiratis haven’t got even one of Iranian islands in the Hormuz. Finally, just like back on 27 February, the IRGC-regime is still ready to only talk about its stock of enriched uranium - which, from the IRGC’s point of view, was always there as a bargain for negotiations. The principal difference is that the Hormuz Strait is closed. At least almost.
This - the Hormuz - is also near-certain to become the first major change in regards of what comes next. Indeed, I’m quite sure that, one way or the other, after this war - and as a direct consequence of this war - the shipping in this area is never going to be organised the same way like before 28 February 2026.
As for other consequences… some are already comparing this war with the tripartite aggression (UK-France-Israel) on Egypt, in October 1956: the Suez War (or, for the British: the Suez Crisis). Especially in regards of, from the British point of view, ‘the end of the Empire’.
I do tend to lean in similar direction, but I’ll also ‘warn’: the British Empire didn’t ‘fall’ with the cease-fire of 7 November 1956. It didn’t collapse the next day either. That war was merely the ‘sign of times’: the affair making it clear that the British and the French are never going to dominate the Middle East the way they did for the previous few centuries. Mind that it took several years longer until Great Britain began releasing its colonies into independence: indeed, if you ask Brits who used to live back then, they’ll tell you that the early 1960s were ‘the best times ever’ - economically, first and foremost… and even then, through the following years the British were still keen to ‘extract revenge by screwing up Nasser’ - in Yemen, and with help of the Saudi gold, for example.
Similarly, the Grande Nation didn’t learn anything at all from the Suez War (nor from the one in Indochina, concluded around the same time), but made a headlong rush into the Algeria catastrophe - which ended with massacres and a military mutiny of the kind the mass of the French avoid talking until this very day. Indeed, following a short respite, France was back to playing wars all over Africa: in Mauritania, in the Central African Republic, in Chad, in the DR Congo, in Libya etc… for decades longer. Actually, until 2014, when it ‘concluded’ the Operation Serval in Mali… (which, hand on heart: is, actually, ‘continued by different means’, until this very day).
Therefore - and sorry to disappoint - even if, foremost thanks to Netanyahu, AIPAC and IQ47, the US have clearly lost this war, and are near-certain to follow in the wake of the British- and French empires: nope, the Pax Americana is not going to something like crumble ‘tomorrow in the morning’, either.
The question is rather: who’s going to take its place - and then where, and when or how soon?
Respect for all your analyses. Always interesting to read.
Two minor comments
1/ AMAL did not become Hezbollah. They are still two separate organizations both representing mainly the Shia community. AMAL is more nationalistic and politically embedded in the Lebanese government. Hezbollah is a more militant and military strong and has closer links to Iran. After fighting each other in the eighties they made up an agreement in 1989 and since then closely cooperate.
2/ the Maronite Christians do not dominate the Lebanese government as you seem to suggest.
The Christian President was only elected with support of the Shia. They have the speaker of Parliament ( AMAL). The Soenni have the Prime Minister.
Bellingcat has an interesting report, on how the UAE is trying to hide the damage that Iran has caused: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/04/02/war-uae-iran-infuencer-dubai-conflict-drone-successful-strike-intercept-fire/
And another article or rather tool, to show the damage in Iran and the Gulf Arab countries, based on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery captured by the Sentinel-1 satellite, which is part of the Copernicus mission developed and operated by the European Space Agency: https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2026/04/07/tool-damage-assessment-destruction-sentinel-satellite-imagery-iran-us-gulf/