Lessons We must learn to 'Keep Peace'
By Benjamin Cook
Am I the only one who thinks that Europe’s major defense export is meetings and summits?
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If we want to avoid an endless cycle of war in Ukraine, we need to face some hard truths. First, we have to understand why deterrence failed in the first place. We have to confront the mistakes we made and the lessons we ignored, or we'll keep repeating them until the stakes are too high to survive.
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1. The Fallout of Iraq and Afghanistan The US failures in Iraq and Afghanistan shattered the image of American resolve. We went into these wars with no clear endgame, stayed too long, and left in ways that broadcast weakness. None of that was lost on Vladimir Putin. The embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan was the cherry on top, a signal that America no longer had the military or logistics it boasts. That message was received loud and clear in Moscow.
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2. Europe's Energy Gamble Europe gambled its energy security on cheap Russian gas and “green” promises. Germany took it a step further, shutting down its nuclear power generation and leaving itself—and much of Europe—vulnerable to Kremlin blackmail. This wasn’t just a policy miscalculation; it was a geopolitical gift to Russia, giving Putin leverage that no dictator should have over Europe in the 21st century. Even though Europe has partially weaned itself from Russian oil and gas, the signal it sent to Putin pre-invasion was clear. Even if the outcome Putin hoped for failed.
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3. Weak Responses to Russian Aggression We failed the first test of deterrence in 2008 when Russia invaded Georgia. The world offered weak condemnations and little else. That was the green light. Then came Crimea in 2014. Again, the response was tepid, cautious, slow. Sanctions, sure, but not the kind that would actually hurt. Not the kind that would stop an army in its tracks. The West hoped diplomacy would work. Putin knew better. We handed him Crimea, and with it, the belief that he could take even more.
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4. Misunderstanding Dictators The West has spent decades misunderstanding how to deal with dictators. The playbook has been the same: engagement, normalization, commerce. We believed economic ties would tame aggression. Instead, they created rich dictators with growing armies and bigger ambitions. Putin isn’t unique here. He’s just one of many who learned that the West will trade moral courage for economic comfort.
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5. The "Red Line" That Wasn't Obama's "Red Line" in Syria was another failure that broadcast weakness. When Assad crossed it with chemical weapons, the response was... nothing. No consequences. No action. Another signal to despots everywhere that the West was all talk.
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6. Europe's Defense Dependency Europe has been happy to let the US pick up the tab for defense. Decades of underinvestment and political dithering have left NATO weaker than it should be. When the US started divesting from its role as the world's policeman, Europe was exposed. And yet, Europe’s contemplative governments moved at a glacial pace, as if hoping the problem would solve itself. Spoiler: it won't.
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7. Don’t Srebrenica My Ukraine Let's not forget the Srebrenica Genocide, which happened right under the nose of so-called "peacekeepers." We failed then, and we're failing again. We have to get Ukraine right. Putin did it again, and we were all slow to react, again. The same apathy, the same caution, the same outcome. The only difference is that the stakes are now higher, and the consequences graver.
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What Now?
If we want to ‘keep’ - actually: re-establish - the ‘peace’ in Ukraine, we have to stop wishing for an easier world and start dealing with the world we actually have. A broader conflict is inevitable if we don't. Meetings and Summits aren’t going to stop ballistic missiles tearing into children. Action will. That means rearming, rethinking energy policies, standing up to dictators, and making it clear that red lines are real. We need speed, courage, and resolve. Anything less is just another invitation to war. European leaders need to get acquainted with the notion that their militaries will soon be killing Russians, before this is all over.
Benjamin Cook continues to travel to, often lives in, and works in Ukraine, a connection spanning more than 14 years. He holds an MA in International Security and Conflict Studies from Dublin City University and has consulted with journalists on AI in drones, U.S. military technology, and related topics. He is co-founder of the nonprofit UAO, working in southern Ukraine. You can find Mr. Cook between Odesa, Ukraine; Charleston, South Carolina; and Tucson, Arizona.
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Mr. Cook’s Substack:
Last year, I would have agreed with you.
This year, I'll respectfully disagree.
Precisely for reasons listed in this article. Because (in)actions of our 'politicians' are all the while encouraging such like Pudding.
I'm very disappointed by the comments that mock my prediction that Europe's tripwire force will need to kill Russians. This means several things.
1. My inclusion of Srebrenice went right over your head.
2. You are STILL unfamiliar with Putin and his strategies.
European forces will be required to defend themselves. This means targeting and killing Russians. Putin will not pass on the opportunity to incrementally test Europe's resolve.
Some of you are applauding European deliberation. Europe has been deliberating on this since 2014. Children are still dying in Ukraine. There is no amount of summits and deliberation that will take the place of decisive action. No amount of meetings that will come to any other conclusion than confrontation with Putin.