Israel/Palestine....Middle East: 26 October 2023
Hello everybody!
On basis of what one is getting to hear from all over the Middle East of these days, I think it’s safe to assess that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is on the best way into a major escalation.
Israel - General
In exchange for Israel permitting humanitarian aid (in form of 17-20 trucks loaded with baby food, water, and medications) to enter the Gaza Strip from Egypt, starting with 20 October, Hamas released two hostages (both US citizens) on the same day, and another two (both Israeli citizens) on 24 October. Up to 210 hostages are assessed as being held by Hamas and PIJ (they should be from 23 different countries); another 100 Israeli and foreign nationals are still missing, i.e. their fate is unknown since 7 October.
Notably, whenever hostages are interviewed by the media, Israeli propagandists are preventing them from making any kind of statements ‘positive’ about hijackers – like this one managed to do, nevertheless: Israel furious that elderly Captive spoke of humane treatment by Hamas.
On the contrary, everybody (and his/her next kin) is ah-so-very-much positive about Qatar and its role: even Netanyahu expressed his gratitude for Doha’s mediation. Arguably, reports about how are Qataris keeping the economy of Gaza afloat are published, time and again, but those explaining how Hamas is expecting Qatar to repair all the civilian facilities after every round of Israeli bombing are next to non-existent: if at all, then it’s EU and USA to blame for ‘funding Hamas’, right after Iran, of course (which is the primary sponsor of Hamas’ miltiary activities). Actually, the last week, an official EU investigation into its own financing of local charities revealed that no money was misappropriated at all. But, who cares…
What is also never explained - and thus next to unknown - is the obsession of Hamas-leadership with getting its own top commanders out of Israeli jails. Sinwar, CO of Hamas’ military wing, has spent most of his life in an Israeli prison: he was released in 2011, within frame of the so-called ‘Shalit’ deal. Ever since, he has prioritised the release of other Palestinians from Israeli detention: sources differ, but it’s certain that anywhere between 4,000 and 8,000 Palestinians – including hundreds of women and children – are held detained in Israel. Unsurprisingly, and as confirmed by captured Hamas’ documentation, primary aim of the ‘Operation al-Aqsa Flood’ of 7 October was taking hostages to use as bargain for negotiations. Obviously, a better part of this operation went horribly wrong, and resulted in a massacre, ‘instead’: exactly why, nobody is curious to find out and say in the public. Such ‘unimportant details’ are going to be left to historians and declared for ‘past’, and then declared for ‘antiquities’, sometimes in the future…
….and that foremost in Israel and the West, but also by Hamas, which, right now, couldn’t even explain in the public why did it treat civilians, women, and children in a fashion that is clearly against what’s written in the Quran.
But, why explain Hamas to the public in the West? That’s ‘propaganda’, especially because it would explain the motives for its attack from 7 October – all of which are Israel-related (or at least: related to 75-years of military occupation and the presence of 600,000 illegal extremist settlers in the West Bank). It’s much easier to declare anybody trying to talk about this for ‘anti-Semite’, explain that this war began only on 7 October, compare Hamas to the Daesh, and declare all the Palestinians for terrorists…
…and so, Hamas is left free to misuse hostages to drive a wedge between the Israeli government and the public (in Israel and abroad) – through occasional release of, for example, two civilians.
Which, hand on heart, is not hard. After all, in the Israel media there is a growing number of reports like this one, depicting one of survivors who lost relatives to blazing guns of IASF’s AH-64s, on 7 October. ….or about immense frustration between relatives of the hostages. They are desperate to get their beloved ones out alive, but their demands are entirely ignored not only by the Israeli government, but also the Western media… Similarly ignored by the Western media are efforts by multiple Israeli human rights groups (especially B’Tselem), who are trying to help Palestinians in the West Bank: meanwhile, the IDF is as mistreating them with the same hatred usually reserved for Palestinians…
Don’t worry: Hamas is playing other games, too. For example, on 22 October, when one of Israeli air strikes exposed an opening to one of its tunnels under the main market of Mukhayamn Nuseirat (central Gaza), Hamas rushed to prohibit the release of videos and photographs showing that tunnel. Therefore, here is one:
Troubles within Hamas are also reported from Bayt Lahiyeh area – between Hamas civilian- and military wings. Apparently, the former launched an evacuation of medical centres on its own, the latter does not like that…
The Israelis are at least as ‘united’. In a briefing for the press, yesterday, IDF generals stated they’re ready for the ground offensive, that this is going to be run no matter what happens, but also that they are waiting for Netanyahu to order one, thus creating the impression that their corrupt prime minister is hesitant. For somebody like me, who knows about Dayan’s and Rabin’s ‘almost coup’ against Eshkol of late May 1967, ‘nothing new’. You, dear reader, should have no doubts: ‘the deadline (for ground operation) is nearing’.
Actually, it seems that the Israelis have two or three, perhaps more problems, at least two of which are related to the USA - and that these are preventing their ground offenaive.
The first is that Washington (plus few other Western governments) and Doha are trying to negotiate the release of remaining hostages, and thus Washington is pressing Israel to hold back (except with ‘air strikes on Hamas’, of course). The second is that, reportedly, even President Biden came to his senses and told to Netanyahu that he (read: USA) prefers no ground operation into Gaza.
The third is that Israel must wait for the USA to build-up own air defences of the country (i.e. Israel), but also own military installations all over the Middle East: point is that the Americans want to make sure not only Israel, but also their own troops are well-protected for any eventualities – for example: mass missile/rocket strikes by IRGC/Hezbollah-conglomerate, in retaliation for any kind of an Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. Which is rather unsurprising considering different of US military bases in Iraq and Syria came under some 20 attacks over the last week (all by the IRGC/Hezbollah-conglomerate, but one, run by something called ‘Islamic Jihad of Iraq’….). With other words: even Washington is aware that such an operation is near-certain to trigger a larger war….
But, hey: why acting sanely? It’s more important to play into Hamas’ hands through enabling Netanyahu and his extremists to continue pursuing their own interests, regardless of consequences – for Israel, and for the West… Therefore, the Pentagon has meanwhile deployed advisors from the US Marine Corps to Israel, to advise the Israelis about their experiences from combating the Daesh: this sounds so great!
Israel-Lebanon-Syria
As the Hezbollah/IRGC-conglomerate continues the deployment of reinforcements along cease-fire lines between Syria and Israel, the Israelis are increasing their pressure - upon Lebanon and Syria.
The IASF is constantly flying over Lebanon – and thus violating that country’s sovereignty. But hey: why should anybody care? After all, it is well-known that the Lebanese airspace is Israel-owned for about 50 years, meanwhile. That said, so far I haven’t seen at lots of IASF action there. Instead, the Israelis are using the Lebanese airspace to strike on Syria. Like both on 24 and 25 October, when they bombed ‘military infrastructure’ and ‘mortar batteries’ in…. they wouldn’t say where in south-western Syria.
Also bombed was Nayrab International – Aleppo’s airport: yesterday in the morning, this was about to re-commence operations when re-attacked by the IASF and shut down again. Constant Israeli pressure on this airport, and the one in Damascus, is claimed to be aiming to block Iranian arms shipments. That itch in my small toe is telling me that this is next to no use – if for no other reason then because meanwhile the airliners of IRGC-owned Mahan Air are regularly landing at the Russia-controlled Basem al-Assad International (better known as ‘Hmeymim Air Base’), south of Latakia instead. ‘Somehow’, the Israelis aren’t striking the Russian bases in Syria, and thus the Hezbollah/IRGC-conglomerate has it easy to find cover through ‘hugging’ or even using these…which is the usual IRGC/Hezbollah practice at least since 2018….
Meanwhile, Hezbollah/IRGC-conglomerate is increasing its own pressure along the border between Israel and Lebanon, and is known to have fired additional dozens of ATGMs to hit different of IDF’s observation posts, surveillance systems, and few tanks. Arguably, Hezbollah losses are known to be slowly mounting, too. On 24 October, 7 militants were killed: 4 of these when the IDF claimed the elimination of an ATGM-team near the border. On the contrary, the PIJ is meanwhile ‘limited’ to sporadic firing of rockets at northern Israel.
Now, some have asked me, the last few days, how comes the PIJ can operate from Lebanon?
Since Israel was so spledidly successfully in driving out the PLO from Lebanon, back in 1982, the huge Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp outside Sidon came under the control of the PIJ, and – although pursuant of ideology of the Muslism Brotherhood (which is originating from Egypt) – this is strongly supported by the IRGC. IRGC’s influence can be seen in the fact that, just like in the case of the IRGC/Hezbollah, every militant of the PIJ’s Qassam Brigades killed in combat is proudly made known in the public. IRGC-style. Here is one example, in form of one of three PIJ militants killed during an attack on the Margaliot settlement, on 17 October:
Anyway…
Yesterday, the IDF reported to have intercepted (quote) ‘surface-to-air missile fired from Lebanon at Israeli aircraft’, and then attacked the launch site (apparently, the missile was Syrian). Furthermore, while confirming that several (Kornet) ATGMs were fired into Israel, it claimed to have ‘eliminated a five-Hezbollah-terror-squad’ near the border.
Overall: simply fantastic. Better than Obama…
West Bank
The IDF is also continuing its ‘cleansing of Hamas’ in the West Bank. Like when armed settlers fell over Palestinians in the process of evacuating one of villages under their attack, tied, beaten, burned, and peed on three they have captured, as reported by the Israeli media - just not the Western… In similar fashion, it was the Israeli media that reported the murder of another Palestinian by one of terrorist settlers armed and supported by the IDF, yesterday: just not the Western…
If at all, the Western media continues ignoring developments in the West Bank. At most, it did mention that on 22 October, an IASF fighter jet struck a ‘target’ in the West Bank (for the first time in something like 20 years): this was a mosque in Jenin, where two Palestinians were killed…
Gaza Strip
Over the last five days, the IASF continued claiming strikes on ‘over 400 targets’ in the Gaza Strip, per day. These operations were so extremely precise, so very much ‘Hamas-destroying’ that something like an entire district of the strip is completely demolished every 24 hours. Together with an average of 120-140 Palestinian civilians killed every night: over 1,400 Palestinian children (just kids of age of 15 or below) were massacred by now….
The IASF bombing remains so highly effective that every single day since 20 October, Hamas and PIJ found it easy to continue firing rockets at Israel (total arsenal is estimated at about 20,000 rockets). Between others, they’ve hit Ashkelon, for example. One of their heaviest rockets – Badr – hit a parking lot, blowing up a number of cars. Yesterday, Hamas fired its longest-ranged weapons – named Ayash – at Haifa and Eilat. According to the Israelis, the one that flew in direction of Haifa exploded in mid-air; the one fired at Eilat hit the empty desert. Another volley of lighter rockets targeted the Rishon LeZion area, south of Tel Aviv. AFAIK, no injuries were reported.
But hey: never mind. The Israelis just can’t stop claiming ever additional of ‘Hamas commanders’ for ‘eliminated’. On 23 October, for example, the IDF claimed to have killed the ‘head of Hamas anti-tank missile force in northern Gaza’. This remains unconfirmed, but please, have no trace of doubt: after 100 years of assassinations of different of Israel’s top opponents, one simply cannot but declare such operations for ‘exceptionally effective’. And no doubt: every time the Israelis – or the Americans, in their usual fashion of copy-pasting every single of acknowledged Israeli mistakes – kill one of enemy commanders in the Middle East, a new, much more skilled, and more extremist enemy commander is emerging. Therefore, this practice was repeated yesterday, when the Israelis claimed to have killed the spokesman of the Qassam Brigades, Abu Obeidah.
The last night, the IDF run a ‘raid’ by infantry and armoured vehicles into northern Gaza. It claimed to have attacked ‘Hamas targets’. Additionally, the IASF continued bombing ‘terror sites’ all over the strip.
Red Sea
By all of these glorious achievements, I’ve nearly missed the subplot. Indeed, an ‘intriguing’ episode that, according to the Pentagon and the US media, occurred….well, somewhere in the Red Sea, on Thursday, 19 October.
Correspondingly, and as first, it was claimed (not sure if it was the USN that claimed this, but at least the White House and the Pentagon), that USS Carney was in the 'northern Red Sea' when shooting down…’few’ missiles and UAVs, and thus ‘defending Israel’.
Then, the number of missiles was increased to 3, and then to 4. First they were said to have been ‘land attack missiles’, meanwhile even that is not sure. The number of UAVs engaged and shot down by Carney grew to 19, and meanwhile seems to be at ‘over 20’…
As far as I can assess, most of this is complete nonsense. For the start, and except the USN has secretly introduced the technology of beaming to its warships, there is no way USS Carney could’ve traveled over some 2,000km – from southern to the northern Red Sea – in the course of less than 24 hours. Yes, sure, as a vessel of the Arleigh-Burke-(Flight I)-class, this ship can reach a maximum speed of 31 knots. Means: within 24 hours, it could travel over some 740 nautical miles, which is something like 1,370km. But, it would run out of fuel while trying to do so, because at maximum speed it’s gulping maximum amounts of fuel, too: more likely, it was underway at its best economic speed of around 20 knots, which in turn means it couldn’t have been more than ‘up’ about central Red Sea…..or less, in which case I doubt the ship was any further up the Red Sea than at the height of the Saudi-Yemeni border.
As next, it’s not only that the Houthis have no missiles with a range of more than 800km (that’s what they call the Sayyad, see the video-still below), or that Israel is about 1,850km away from the areas they control: Saudis are monitoring northern Yemen and the southern Red Sea all the time, and extremely carefully – precisely because of all the missile- and UAV-strikes they’ve experienced over the last 7-8 years. Thus, thinking the Saudis have ‘missed’ a ‘stream’ of missiles travelling all the way up the Red Sea and did nothing, would be plain dumb… what a surprise then, somebody found a WGU-44/B guidance section of an AIM-120C AMRAAM medium-range air-to-air missile in northern Yemen: exactly the kind that is the primary weapon of Saudi F-15 and EF-2000 interceptors… or that now there are claims that the Saudis shot down several of Houthi missiles.
Bottom line: the version of this story as presented by US officials is quite a load of unsubstantiated nonsense. But hey: never mind! Nowadays, and as soon as one claims 'USS Carney defending Israel', one can s….erm… tell the US Americans (plus Germans, French, Austrians and quite a few others in the West) whatever one likes…