Israel dragging everybody into its War (Part 1)
Hello everybody!
Yes, another ‘volley’ for today, to bring at least myself up to date in regards of the unprovoked US-Israeli aggression on Iran.
Yes, I’m starting this one in a way not a few are going to perceive as ‘provocative’: by declaring this war an unprovoked aggression of the US-Israel. Certainly enough, ‘half the internet’ (and his/her next kin) is now going to fall over me with explanations like what an ‘extremist antisemite’ (sic; I’m just quoting here) I am, etc. Have heard of all of that - usually from people who couldn’t find the Middle East on the map, not to talk about disqualifying themselves by either proving intentionally ignorant of so many relevant facts, or blindly supporting what is, actually, religious fanaticism.
Fact is that this is an unprovoked aggression. Iran could have made its nuke already 20 years ago. It decided not to. As much as ridiculed by all the possible (‘security’) Experten in Israel and ‘the West’ (usually the very same people who are such experts in affairs in question, none of them can call Israel’s genocide on Palestinians a genocide, regardless of all the evidence), ‘Ayatollah’ Khamenei’s Nuclear Fatwa of 2006 has prohibited Iran from (at least) assembling and possessing nuclear weapons, if not even from developing the same. And Iran is an Islamic Republic: a theocracy. Indeed, the very IRGC-regime is insistent it’s ‘acting in the name of God’. Therefore, and regardless you like it or not, ‘trust’, ‘belive’ or whatever else, the IRGC simply couldn’t but act according to that fatwa: it’s a religious law. Unsurprisingly, and regardless if the IRGC has run related (military) exercises, back in the mid-2000s, or not, in the course of all of its inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities, the IAEA has never found evidence for Iran developing or possessing nuclear weapons.
What’s more: Israel launched this aggression in style that for at least 14 years, is something like the core of its political- and military doctrine. Through an assassination of negotiators. As far as I can recall, this doctrine can be traced back to at least 16 November 2012, when Israel violated yet another of many cease-fires with Hamas to assassinate its top commander, Ahmed Jabari. It did so after Jabari - initially renown (foremost in Israel) for being uncompromising, but then switching over to understanding that continuing hostility with Israel is foremost harming the Hamas and the people of the Gaza Strip - negotiated a draft permanent truce agreement with Israel. More recently, on 31 July 2024, Israel assassinated the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in the military-run guesthouse in Tehran, mid through negotiations. Only a year later, on 9 September 2025, Israel attempted to assassinate the Hamas’ leadership as this was meeting in the government residential complex in Doha, Qatar, to discuss ongoing negotiations with Israel, too…
With other words: the only thing various people termed with ‘terrorists’ can learn from all of this is that Israel does not want to negotiate. At most, its negotiations are a scam aiming to drag them into the open, where they can be assassinated.
I’m explaining this not because I would ‘love’ or ‘support’ the IRGC-regime in Iran. Not because I would be ‘falling for Iranian propaganda’ or be something like ‘Jihadist supporter’ (have heard such accusations dozens of times; mentioning this only to make sure you know them, too): I’m mentioning it because cold fact is that around 21.14hrs GMT of 27 February this year, the Foreign Minister of Oman, who has served as mediator in US-Israeli- and Iranian negotiations, announced nothing less than that Iran has agreed to surrender its stockpile of enriched uranium. The country lauded as ‘sponsoring terror all around the world’, ‘responsible for the death of thousands of US- & Israeli citizens’, and ‘aiming to exterminate Israel’, was therefore ready to give up some of its sovereignty, just in order to be left on its own. To have peace.
It was not to get anything of that: only hours later - actually: as soon as the Israeli Air-Space Force (IASF) could arm and refuel the necessary aircraft and brief their crews - Israeli jets were on the way to launch a new aggression on Iran, this time in form of an assassination of ‘Ayatollah’ Khamenei, the spiritual leader of the Shi’a.
Note No. 1: notable is that the IDF claimed it used ‘30 bombs’ to destroy Khamenei’s residence in Tehran, and kill him, early on 28 February 2026.
In the video released by Israel and showing the strike in question, though, one can count ‘only’ some eight explosions. Perhaps 10. The video was probably captured by one of IASF’s stealth UAVs, probably RA-01.
Certainly, these 8-10 warheads were enough to do the job, but: they were no ‘bombs’. As far as contacts say, the strike was actually flown by four F-15Ds armed with Black Sparrow air-launched ballistic missiles - and supported not only by massive volumes of electronic countermeasures, but also a cyber-attack aimed to disrupt the work of the Iranian integrated air defence system. With F-15s launching their missiles from above north-western Iraq, the majority of Black Sparrows have reached their target unmolested by Iranian air defences.
Note No. 2: during its 12-days-long aggression on Iran, the last year in June, Israel was attacking Iran ‘on its own’: without support of the large fleet of Boeing KC-46A Pegasus and KC-135R Stratotanker tanker aircraft of the US air force - which was put at its disposal in the course of this aggression, starting with 28 February. (Sure, the USA then flew the two ‘bunker-busting’ strikes on two major nuclear facilities in Iran, but that remained that; the rest was all done by Israel alone).
Therefore, the IASF could reach back ‘only’ upon some six or seven Boeing 707s reconditioned to serve as in-flight refuellers (and, at least one of them: also as an airborne command post).
Correspondingly - and despite bombastic claims by the IASF & IDF, and as explained in several of related features (here just one example) - the Israelis never established themselves in more than temporary position of aerial dominance over a stretch of some 100km deep into the Iranian airspace. This was where their fighter jets were deploying such ‘free-fall’ (though GPS-assisted) weapons like GBU-31 JDAMs. Targeting anything deeper inside Iran required the deployment of either air-launched ballistic missiles like Black Sparrow (weight around 1,900kg; range up to 2000km), or such mini-cruise missiles like Ice Breaker (weight 400kg; range 300km) or Delilah (weight 187kg; range 250kg). So far, even the deployment of better-known precision guided munition (PGM) like the Spice family (which are unpowered, but can be lobbed over up to 120km far) remained ‘limited ‘in overall scope.
Unsurprisingly, the IRGC-Air & Space Force (IRGCASF) reacted with a vicious missile barrage that caused far more damage than the Israelis would ever be ready to admit. Nevertheless, the IDF went on to issue particularly bombastic claims. From the military point of view, the most important - or the most relevant for what is going on since 28 February this year - were tidily summarised by The Times of Israel as follows:
With other words: at least according to what the IDF (and the Netanyahu government) wanted everybody to think/believe, Iran was already then left with less than 50% of its ballistic missiles and mere 100 ‘or so’ suitable launchers.
A weirdo like me is thus left to wonder: why was the country - i.e. the IRGC/IRGCASF - thus still considered such a mortal threat for Israel as to validate yet another, though even more massive aggression, mere eight months later…? …and why doing that only hours after a particularly successful conclusion of negotiations about the fate of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium?
Me and my questions…
Fast forward…
Early into the third week of this war - and despite not only massive support of USAF tankers, but indeed: direct involvement of the US armed forces on the side of Israel in this aggression on Iran, and that in form of massive strikes by cruise missiles, M142 HIMARS missiles, and strikes by fighter-bombers of the US Air Force and the US Navy - … well, I do not have the impression things are that significantly better for Israel than they were during, for example, the second week of the last year’s war.
Sure, this time it’s the - entirely incompetent, and ridiculously overtasked - administration of the US pres IQ47 that is making the most bombastic claims. So, for example, ‘90% of Iran’s military capabilities’ should have been destroyed; the number of missiles fired at Israel should’ve dropped by ‘83%’, Iran is ‘totally bombed out’… indeed, ‘there’s nothing left to bomb’, and lots of other, similar, fantastic figures and wishful thinking.
Let me explain this to some detail - and be patient: if you think you must anything of the following for the ‘Iranian propaganda’, feel free to do so after reading. And I mean it: after READING. OK? Moreover, before doing so, mind that both the IRGC and the Iranian public are, actually, releasing far more details about what’s going on in terms of combat operations than the US-Israel combined. Besides, I’m mere 40 years in this ‘business’, and you might be days into it, but I’m quite sure we’re all sober and mature people: it could be - there is at least a distant possibility, isn’t there? - we’re all reasonably intelligent enough not to fall for PRBS.
OK… so, for the start, and as of yesterday morning, the IRGC and Hezbollah have launched the 49th-53rd Waves of the Operation True Promise (i.e.: there was a total of four waves the previous night and morning alone). This included the deployment of some 30 missiles, prompting three alerts in two parts of Israel (Tel Aviv & Nevatim/Dimona), plus on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the Dhafra AB in the UAE.
The wave was coordinated with Hezbollah, which fired its share of rockets at the Metulla area, and on IDF positions on the occupied Golan Heights. Katayib Hezbollah in Iraq was the third party to join the barrage: they’ve used Hadid-110 UAVs to strike US-bases in the country.
Multiple ‘impacts’ were reported, including one that - AFAIK - went for Nevatim AB, not ‘Tel Aviv’ as explained here. The rest of resulting videos were showing damage on civilian objects only - which, if I’m to ask, is no surprise considering Israel (and the UAE) has introduced draconic punishment for recording and releasing that kind of imagery. Two of impacts should have caused fires in Holon and Ramla, the Tel Aviv area. Another a fire in the Netanya area (northern Israel). One should have hit something in Petah Tikva (also in the Tel Aviv area).
Here I cannot but wonder: how comes? If the US-Israel have destroyed Iran’s military capabilities as much as they claim, how can the IRGCASF still mount four missile waves in some 5-6 hours?
Ah yes: me and my questions…
In Kuwait, the civilian aviation authority confirmed a hit on one of its radar systems.
Around the same time, Riyadh complained about an attack by 10 UAVs on objects in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, and that all of these were shot down (the RSFADF can do that: is highly experienced from countering Houthi UAVs). The IRGC responded promptly that it didn’t launch any kind of attacks in that direction. The Fars News Agency specified that this was a ‘false flag operation’ and the UAVs in question came from the UAE. (Just for comparison: the IRGC had no problems with confirming its strikes on the Prince Sultan AB, near Riyadh, in the KSA, yesterday.)
As this was going on, bombers of the US Air Force (USAF), have released additional AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles against targets in Iran. Several of these were shot down by ‘destroyed’ Iranian air defences, including the example the wreckage of which is visible below, and was manufactured in 2007. The weapon was felled in the Hamedan area, in western Iran.
…this is another thingy I cannot but wonder: if the Iran’s air defences are all but destroyed, and the Israelis and the US-Americans are enjoying total aerial superiority, apparently ‘all over Iran’, as claimed both by the USA and Israel for at least a week now, if not longer… then WTF do the USA have to deploy expensive and scarce stealth cruise missiles to target anything in Iran? Why not use B-52s to do what they can do the best: carpet-bomb selected targets?
Yes, yes… me and my questions…
And that was still not all. Another thingy that appeared yesterday in the morning was a video from which the following screen-grab was taken. Captured minutes after an air strike on Esfahan, in central Iran, which reportedly caused 15 detonations, early in the morning, it showed a jet that appeared from the east and streaked in western direction - and was initially assessed as either an ‘F-15’ (opearted both by Israel, as F-15I, and by the US Air Force, as F-15E), or even a B-1 bomber (of the USAF):
However, a close inspection of what is visible has revealed one of Grumman F-14A Tomcat interceptors of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF).
Sure, the jet appeared much too late on the scene but to engage any of attackers. Thus, no air combat is known to have ensued.
However, what matters is this: Iran acquired 80 F-14As back in the 1970s, and only the last week - after a big missile strike on the home-base of the Iran’s Tomcat-fleet (TFB.7: i.e. Tactical Fighter Base 7, outside Esfahan) - Israel claimed the destruction of either ‘all’ the Iranian Tomcats, or at least something like ‘49 out of 25 operational F-14s’… but, now it turns out they’re still around and flying combat operations…?
Sigh… Me and my questions…
(…to be continued…)
I'm no fan of the Iranian regime - I have Parsi and Zoroastrian friends - but any country which has oil and no nukes will in due course get a free dose of USAian freedom fries.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner ,two hyper-zionists with extremely close personal ties to Netanyahu, for example Netanyahu used to sleep in Jared's room when he was a boy when he visited the Kushners , Kushner and Witkoff never had any experience to deal with Iran (let alone handle nuclear talks) and did not even have an official position within the administration, it was obvious thry were appointed there from day one to sabotage the negotiations and the decision to go to war was made already.
It appears the United State , a global super power with thousands of think tanks and experts needed only the personal openion of Netanyahu to start a global conflict.