Iranian-Israeli Soap Opera (Episode 522): Everything’s Fine, there’s Nothing to see

Hello everybody!

A lot to do today, so lets get straight to the point. Indeed, let’s start with a damage assessment from the IRGCASF’s strike on Israeli air bases, from late on 1 October. Because that’s simple: according to Israel and the USA, it was a highly successful defence effort, 98% of IRGCASF’s missiles were intercepted, and no damage was caused.

As obvious from first satellite photos of Tel Nov (left) and Nevatim (right) air bases, too:

Everything as clear as marmelade…

Certainly enough, a few slightly better images of Nevatim AB have surfaced ever since. They’re showing only a small portion of this facility, but also: five hits. That’s five out of some 30 missiles and/or MIRVs known to have impacted that air base alone…

Ah es, and if you wonder how comes Nasrallah was assassinated by the IASF… No, it was no super-turbo Israeli intelligence, as constructed and ‘explained’ by the Financial Times, but, as the Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib explained in an interview to Amanpour, Nasrallah agreed to a cease-fire:

Sure, the usual Israeli explanation for such cases is that, ‘Arabs always lie’. And about 99% of ‘the West’ is buying that, 100% of time.

However, one should keep in mind that this is exactly the same explanation one gets to hear from the IRGC, too. And the IRGC is no ‘Arabs’. And the IRGC does not control the Lebanese government: it ‘only’ controls Hezbollah.

They’ve also been told, already back in April, ‘there’s going to be a cease-fire’. They’ve been told the same again in August, and then in September. Correspondingly, the IRGC did its best to curb operations of its proxies. However, ever since Netanyahu landed in New York, about a week ago, there is no talk about a cease-fire any more. On the contrary, he ordered Nasrallah’s assassination.

Thus – and unless there is a conspiracy between the Lebanese government and the IRGC – it’s the administration of the US President Biden which is lying, and it’s the Israeli government which is lying. Moreover, the Biden Administration is lying when it says it is seeking for a peaceful solution: it’s all the time supporting Netanyahu’s rampage, regardless the consequences. 50,000 massacred Palestinian civilians – over 70% of them women and children – plus 1 million displaced and over 1,500 killed Lebanese civilians: all simply do not matter.

A good example for this is that when Israel is escalating the war through aggressions all over the Middle East, the Biden Administration is calling that an ‘expansion’ (of the war), but neither an ‘escalation’ nor an ‘aggression’. For comparison: when the IRGC hits back (because the Israelis have killed its officers, which is precisely what the IRGC and the Iranian diplomacy were warning Israel from doing, as described back in April), then that’s an ‘aggression’…?

….and your media, which is meanwhile doing ZERO analysis, but faithfully copy-pasting one official statement after the other – is transmitting this message 24/7. And then everybody is stunned when ‘the West’ is blamed of double standards, hypocrisy and lies…

Well, after having clarity about the IRGC’s doctrine and strategy for months already, at least now we have the clarity regarding the actual US doctrine and strategy in this war, and now nobody needs pretending we do not understand what are both the USA and Israel doing there: they’re lying all the time, mass-murdering civilians, and, occasionally, hitting one or another from Hamas, Hezbollah, or the IRGC.

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Having sorted that out, now lets take a look at how is the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon coming forward.

How? You mean there is none?

Of course there is none. When the invasion is initiated, but then runs into a series of ambushes, the IDF suffers heavy casualties and is forced to withdraw, then all the related reporting is recalled, the official explanation is that no invasion was even attempted, and ‘Arabs always lie’.

And so…

Late on 1 October, commando- and combat engineering elements of the 36^th and 98^th Divisions, IDF, have entered Lebanon on multiple points along the border between that country and Israel. Between others, they are known to have attempted infiltrating Addaisseh, Marun al-Ras, Kfarklia, and Yaroun.

In each case, the ‘demolished, defeated, de-capitated etc.’ Hezbollah waited patiently for the IDF troops to enter the places in question, before – between 02.00hrs and 05.20hrs, yesterday in the morning – springing multiple ambushes. In each case, the Israelis were left to enter one or another building, this was then blown up and subjected to heavy fire from RPGs and machine guns.

When the Israelis then sent yet more troops, supported by tanks, to extract casualties, these were hit as well (including, according to Hezbollah, ‘3 Merkava tanks’). When Israeli helicopters attempted to intervene, one was hit and all were forced to withdraw (to make sure: nope, Hezbollah did not claim any Israeli helicopters shot down).

Result: about 50 IDF casualties, including at least 14 killed (the IDF first confirmed 7, then 14 KIA).

The essence of most of what we’ve got to see of this are IASF’s helicopters collecting casualties from evacuation points inside Israel.

One of CH-53 or S-65 of the IASF involved in CASEVAC, yesterday in the morning.

An UH-60 bringing casualties to a point from where these are brought to civilian hospitals.

A great start there, indicating particularly fantastic work of the Israeli intelligence services. After this, no surprise that after one year of massacring civilians all over the Gaza Strip (which is a much smaller geographic area than southern Lebanon), the IDF can only report the destruction of about ‘35% of Hamas and its tunnels’…

Based on this, one can assess how ‘precise’ is the Israeli aerial onslaught on Lebanon, too…

…and, of course, I’m a bad boy for calling a failure a failure…

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Bottom line: everything’s fine, there’s noting to see. Please, pass by and carry on with whatever else you’ve been doing.