Wow and thanks for answering my question here. (Did IAF had capacity to finish PAF?)Do you think not finishing PAF would come to haunt India in future? Also would it be easy overcoming PAF next time as you said both airforces are of similar capabilities, so obviously PAF would have learnt the lesson and would plug the gaps exposed this time?
Very excellent, both parts and always concise/direct to the point replies on the second part. Thanks Tom again, the implications of the conflict and initial lessons learned will be very enlightened "ones" for those AF who are not 1st power countries but needs to level up their IADS or IACCS, eg ROC/Taiwan, the ZSU still, even the NATO/EU countries who support Ukraine.
Would there be a part 3? Seems more questions arises or details might come out?
First and foremost, I thank you for answering 1 out of my 4 questions as part of my comment on Tuesday, May 13, 2025 in your Substack post Illusions and Realities of 'Cross-Border Incidents', Part 2 (UPDATED).
I'm repeating below the 3 unanswered questions for you which you can reply as and when you find the time for the same [I hope you find the time to reply to these 3].
With regards to Operation Sindoor:
1. Is it true that the Indian Air Force [IAF] has lesser numbers of AEW&C/AWACS aircraft in comparison to the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]?
2. Are the IAF's Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin Beriev A-50 and Brazilian-origin Embraer ERJ-145 Nethra AEW&C/AWACS aircraft inferior to their PAF counterparts? The reason for this question is, I've read on the web that US/Western-origin military hardwares are expensive, have a long life and less expensive to maintain, whereas Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardwares are less expensive, have a short life and are expensive to maintain. I don't know how much of this is true. Maybe some what, maybe not. If you can please give your opinion on this, I'd appreciate it.
3. You've also mentioned about China mocking India on social media with regards to Operation Sindoor. Don't you think it's rich and hypocritical? Because the Chinese have copied/stolen/reverse engineered/made unauthorised copies of Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardwares [which are used in a major way by India and China too], along with copying/stealing US/Israeli [the IAI Lavi fighter jet blueprints which the Israelis sold to China to recover their investment in it after being forced by the US to buy the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon] military technologies like the one used for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and the last war that China fought was against Vietnam which it lost.
I'm adding 3 additional questions for you with regards to Operation Sindoor which might be connected to the 2019 Balakot airstrike. I forgot to ask this question earlier.
1. Is it true that the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet shot down by the Indian Air Force [IAF] fighter pilot, now-Wing Commander, Abhinandan Varthaman was in fact a Royal Jordanian Air Force [RJAF] loaned by Jordan to to Pakistan for use by the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]. I think I've a good reason to ask this, because the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] and the Government of the United States of America [GOUSA] after the 2019 Balakot airstrike by India claimed that all Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets were accounted for?
2. Was this claim a secret understanding or agreement between the USA and Pakistan as a face-saver for both including exclusively for the USA which needs India to defeat China and since 2008 its military hardwares sales to India [apart from Lockheed Martin pitching their India-specific variant of the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon as the Lockheed Martin F-21 for the Indian Air Force [IAF]'s Request For Proposal [RFP] for 114 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft [MMRCA], due to the USA having failed to sell any fighter aircraft/jet to India since the end of the Cold War and from the start of the new millennium in the 2000s] have increased from the almost non-existent state of theirs until the end of the Cold War?
3. Like during the 2019 Balakot airstrike by India, is it possible or did the Royal Jordanian Air Force [RJAF] or maybe any other Islamic/Muslim/Arab including anti-India Air Force [AF] which operates the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet given Pakistan's history of overt and covert military support to mainly the Islamic Muslim Arab nations in their war on the Jewish Zionist State of Israel including by sending covert Pakistani Air Force [PAF] fighter pilots flying Islamic Muslim Arab nations Air Force [AF] fighter jets in their war on the Jewish Zionist State of Israel's Israeli Air Force [IAF] loan in 2025 one of their Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] due to claims of a Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet having been shot down by the Indian Air Force [IAF] and or the Indian Army [IAF] using either or the Indian Air Force [IAF] fighter jets on their own or in coordination with the Indian Air Force [IAF] and the Indian Army [IA] individual and combined Air Defence System[s]?
I'd appreciate your reply to my remaining questions from Tuesday, May 13, 2025 including the ones from today, Friday, May 16, 2025.
First and foremost, I thank you for answering 1 out of my 4 questions as part of my comment on Tuesday, May 13, 2025 in your Substack post Illusions and Realities of 'Cross-Border Incidents', Part 2 (UPDATED).
I also thank you for your kind word of interesting for my posts. I appreciate it.
I'm repeating below the 3 unanswered questions from my first post for you below which you can reply as and when you find the time for the same [I hope you find the time to reply to these 3].
With regards to Operation Sindoor:
1. Is it true that the Indian Air Force [IAF] has lesser numbers of AEW&C/AWACS aircraft in comparison to the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]?
2. Are the IAF's Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin Beriev A-50 and Brazilian-origin Embraer ERJ-145 Nethra AEW&C/AWACS aircraft inferior to their PAF counterparts? The reason for this question is, I've read on the web that US/Western-origin military hardwares are expensive, have a long life and less expensive to maintain, whereas Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardwares are less expensive, have a short life and are expensive to maintain. I don't know how much of this is true. Maybe some what, maybe not. If you can please give your opinion on this, I'd appreciate it.
3. You've also mentioned about China mocking India on social media with regards to Operation Sindoor. Don't you think it's rich and hypocritical? Because the Chinese have copied/stolen/reverse engineered/made unauthorised copies of Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardwares [which are used in a major way by India and China too], along with copying/stealing US/Israeli [the IAI Lavi fighter jet blueprints which the Israelis sold to China to recover their investment in it after being forced by the US to buy the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon] military technologies like the one used for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and the last war that China fought was against Vietnam which it lost.
I'm adding 5 questions for you today, Saturday, May 17, 2025 in addition to my 3 questions from yesterday, Friday, May 16, 2025 with regards to Operation Sindoor which might be connected to the 2019 Balakot airstrike. I forgot to ask these 5 additional questions earlier and yesterday, Friday, May 16, 2025.
1. Is it true that the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet shot down by the Indian Air Force [IAF] fighter pilot, now-Wing Commander, Abhinandan Varthaman was in fact a Royal Jordanian Air Force [RJAF] loaned by Jordan to to Pakistan for use by the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]. I think I've a good reason to ask this, because the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] and the Government of the United States of America [GOUSA] after the 2019 Balakot airstrike by India claimed that all Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets were accounted for?
2. Was this claim a secret understanding or agreement between the USA and Pakistan as a face-saver for both including exclusively for the USA which needs India to defeat China and since 2008 its military hardwares sales to India [apart from Lockheed Martin pitching their India-specific variant of the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon as the Lockheed Martin F-21 for the Indian Air Force [IAF]'s Request For Proposal [RFP] for 114 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft [MMRCA], due to the USA having failed to sell any fighter aircraft/jet to India since the end of the Cold War and from the start of the new millennium in the 2000s] have increased from the almost non-existent state of theirs until the end of the Cold War?
3. Like during the 2019 Balakot airstrike by India, is it possible or did the Royal Jordanian Air Force [RJAF] or maybe any other Islamic/Muslim/Arab including anti-India Air Force [AF] which operates the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet given Pakistan's history of overt and covert military support to mainly the Islamic Muslim Arab nations in their war on the Jewish Zionist State of Israel including by sending covert Pakistani Air Force [PAF] fighter pilots flying Islamic Muslim Arab nations Air Force [AF] fighter jets in their war on the Jewish Zionist State of Israel's Israeli Air Force [IAF] loan in 2025 one of their Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] due to claims of a Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet having been shot down by the Indian Air Force [IAF] and or the Indian Army [IAF] using either or the Indian Air Force [IAF] fighter jets on their own or in coordination with the Indian Air Force [IAF] and the Indian Army [IA] individual and combined Air Defence System[s]?
4. India said it hit Islamabad. Since the Pakistani military intelligence organisation, the Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] Head Quarters [HQ] is located in the Aabpara area of Islamabad, was the Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] Head Quarters [HQ] also hit?
5. Is it true that when India hit the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Nur Khan Air Base near Islamabad, the Pakistani Army [PA] Chief Of Army Staff [COAS], General Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah was taken to a fortified bunker within the Pakistani Army [PA]'s General Head Quarters [GHQ] and that he hid there for around 2 hours?
6. When India hit the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]'s Nur Khan Air Force Base [AFB] near Islamabad, it is said on the web, that the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]'s Nur Khan Air Force Base [AFB] is in close proximity to the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] which is the custodian of Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal. Was the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] also hit?
7. The Director-General of Air Operations [DGAO], Air Marshal A. K. Bharti during the Director-General of Military Operations [DGMO] press conference on Monday, May 12, 2025 kind of sarcastically replied to a journalist's question about Kirana Hills that India didn't hit Kirana Hills and that India didn't know that Kirana Hills had Pakistan's nuclear weapons and thanked the journalist for telling him that. What do you make of it? Yesterday, Friday, May 16, 2025, on the Indian English TV news channel, CNN-News18, I saw the interview of Major General R. Narayanan [Retired], the former Additional Director-General of Military Operations [ADGMO] who said that India hit the entrance and exit points in Kirana Hills thereby trapping the Pakistani nuclear weapons inside there. He also said that when Pakistan tries to clear this, India will hit again. By hit again, he meant that during such a hit, when the enemy nation tries to clear the entrance and exit of such a location, the enemy's enemy hits again, which in this case will be India. Is this true?
8. Did India's hit on the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Nur Khan Air Force Base [AFB] along with the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] in close proximity to it also getting hit and the Pakistani Army [PA] Chief Of Army Staff [COAS], General Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah having to hid in a fortified bunker within the Pakistani Army [PA]'s General Head Quarters [GHQ] for around 2 hours make the Pakistani Army [PA]'s Director-General of Military Operations [DGMO], Major General Kashif Abdullah Chaudhry call the Indian Army [IA]'s Director-General of Military Operations [DGMO], Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai and request for a ceasefire on Saturday, May 10, 2025?
I'd appreciate your reply to my remaining questions from Tuesday, May 13, 2025 including the ones from today, Saturday, May 17, 2025.
Yes, of course, Pakistan has a number of other nuclear facilities, and it's certainly continuing to make use of them. The question is: how many of them contain how many of nuclear warheads?
I do not know the answer.
What I do know, though, is that considering its proximity to the Mushaf AB (i.e. the PAF Sargodha complex), the extension of the local radar site, overground depots (hardened shelters), the extension of the local missile garrison, and the fact all of this is controlled by the PAF (which is also responsible for handling the Pakistani nuclear weapons), the Kirina Hills was one of best-protected pieces of real estate in all of Pakistan.
At least in theory, it is 'handy' to have all such stuff bunched together 'in one place' (or at least within a complex sprawling over some 15km): makes it easier to defend. But, that's theory.
(This, even more so considering that - as should be known by now - there were times Pakistan required US troops to protect its nuclear weapons storage sites, too...)
In turn, though, when the defences of such a site are damaged, disabled or whatever... at least degraded to the degree where India can openly strike at them - then that's very, very bad.
What good is a Air defense system if it cannot even defend itself?
If it is damaged using a jammer or something, why couldn't IAF just jam PAFs defense system on 7th itself before targeting the terrorists sites. They didn't need to destroy it just suppress or jam it for sometime, as whole operation was over in 25 mins?
Re. what's the use of an air defence system if it cannot defend itself: theoretically, none, of course. In practice, one is deploying multiple different SAM-systems so they can protect each other from different types of threats.
So, for example: the Russians are usually protecting their S-400 firing units/battalions by Pantsyrs, if necessary with Buks too.
Re. jamming the Pakistani IADS: modern-day radars as installed in SAM-systems like HQ-9, HQ-16 and different other stuff, are extremely hard to 'jam'. Thus, one is usually combining jamming with deployment of decoys and other countermeasures.
For further info about air defences, cannot but recommend reading some of the links provided in the feature here (have really tried my best to keep all these explanations as simple, but also as entertaining as possible):
I could not thank you more for this wonderful analysis. As an Indian national who is seeing proper war (limited, but war nonetheless) for the first time in my life, the level of misinformation/disinformation (from both sides) has been mind-boggling & extremely annoying.
To then have a voice of reason who can string together the exact chronology of events and why, is so satisfying - I can't even put into words. So, once again, thank you!
I have two questions for you, and they concern more about Pakistan in the now and in the future since all I hear in our media is self congratulatory chest thumping, which tbh felt good for the first 24-48 hours, but we really need to move on now.
1. Was the Pakistani reaction on 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th, strictly in terms of the volume of weaponry used (missiles, drones and airplanes everything) lower than expected? Reason I ask is because their FM Ishaq Dhar has gone on record (and so have their Armed Forces) to say that Pakistan showed a lot of restraint and try to paint the picture of India being the aggressor in this case. Reason why this is relevant is because historically speaking, it is the Pakistanis who have been trigger happy over the last 20-30 years - whether it be 1971 or Kargil or through the numerous proxy wars or their constant nuclear posturing.
If there was indeed some restraint from the Pakistani side, what could be the reason behind it? Because considering their economic condition, the amount of ammunition they have etc. , it would make sense in my head to retaliate quickly and with a disproportionate amount of force against Indian aggressions on the 6th night/7th morning.
Or is this just a case of (no better way to say it) - barking dogs seldom bite? Would love your thoughts on this.
2. Where does Pakistan go from here? As the side defeated, they have to be licking their wounds and biding their time. There is absolutely no way (given how their military apparatus works) they can just accept this and do nothing. The Pakistanis are proud people, they will not take such an ego hit lightly and for their military to maintain legitimacy inside Pak- they need to show proof of giving back at some point. You can sense the frustration starting to boil in their local Social Media & discourse.
What can they do? Continuation of proxy war through the JeM and LeT is an option, but that does not give their military a chance to thump their chest in front of their local support base - even if it provides a sort of vicarious pleasure, seeing their enemy India being hit regularly. In my, extremely amateur and noob opinion, I feel that the military will have to respond at some point. Question is what would be a legitimate window for them to respond and if you were their strategic planner, what would you be thinking about doing next, where and when?
3. What does this do for the long term peace and stability of the region, when you add the third actor China into the mix. Cos, with all due respect to your analysis, I feel they are the real victors here. Yes maybe the PL-15s failed to hit a few targets or some J-10s/JF17s were destroyed, but as they say right - when two monkeys fight, the third one wins.
Apologies for the questions being rather long, or if anything is inappropriate, biased or asking too much. Please take your time to respond or don't respond at all but I would sincerely love to hear your thoughts on these.
PS - Loving your interviews on Indian media. Just as an aside, and on a lighter note - as the first respected analyst to say India won - we are going to lap up everything you say or do at the moment. So is Tom Cooper going to be part of the next big-ticket Bollywood project on Op Sindhoor, cos trust me, there definitely will be one :D
Thank you very much Mr. Cooper for answering my queries
I had started interacting with you just before the Russian Ukraine war began in early 2022 on Facebook but later you shifted to Substack and this was the first time i had asked you queries on this platform.
A lot of folks in India who do not know you are hearing about your analysis for the first time but i would like to say that as you mentioned you have been in contact with experts like Ravi Rikhye and other retired Military officers from the Indian Side for a long time so you are in a position to present an appreciation of the situation objectively.
Sorry just wanted to add another point - it seems that India only has 3 S-400 battalions. We had ordered 5 but received 3 because of production delays owing to Russia-Ukraine war. Remaining 2 expected soon.
Thank you for your analysis. It would be great if you could find time to do a deep dive into what this conflict means for Taiwan and the recommended porcupine defence strategy various strategic institutes have recommended in recent years.
Re. Taiwan... ugh... mate: alone Ukraine, Zionism vs Everybody, and India-Pakistan (not to talk about my usual work) are meanwhile keeping me so busy, I've got no hope of trying ot find out what's up in regarding of Taiwan. At most managing to follow major PLAAF and PLAN exercises around the island...
Really sorry: I'm a true 'news junkie' for such topics, and would like to find out and be able to explain on my own, but 'time'...
In my opinion, Pakistan did not lose because India restored the flow of water from the rivers due to high water pressure, which caused cracks in the dams, as India does not invest in the maintenance and construction of dams and suffers from corruption in the service infrastructure sector such as electricity and water. Regarding targeting a storage site, as I mentioned, for Pakistani nuclear weapons, I do not think the Pakistanis are stupid enough to put all their weapons in one place. There are about 48 sites for storing nuclear weapons, only 20 contain weapons and the rest are for concealment. One of them is the base I mentioned, as it did not contain any nuclear weapons. In contrast, India received important strikes inside Indian bases as well. However, there is a cover-up of the damage that affected the Indian bases, including a base in Punjab, the Indian part, which contains nuclear weapons for the Indian Air Force, in addition to the fall of tactical missiles launched by India that fell inside its territory after a failure, causing massive damage, one of which was a BrahMos missile that hit an Indian base after an Indian pilot fired a missile at a site in Kashmir near the border, which he thought was a Pakistani site. Of course, the matter resulted in the deaths of 22 Indian soldier made a mistake Asian media reported the news and an Indian military statement confirmed the incident, admitting that there was a mistake during the targeting process.
Another thing from satellite images is that the damage caused by the Indian attack was minimal and not as promoted, where the Indians promoted that they wiped out everyone in the bases as the Indian media said. The funny thing is that this did not happen. In the end, India may face pressure in the future from several parties, the first of which is China, which may increase its military support for Pakistan. I must also mention an important point, which is that the downing of the Indian Air Force planes was done from a range of 172 km, which is a record number. This raises the question: Are the PL-15 missiles that Pakistan operates E version or not? Because the E version has a range of 145 km and the downing process was done from a longer range. This is an important point that I think you missed with all this talk about the alleged Indian superiority.
"22 indian soldiers died" what are you talking about, there is no source for any of this, India reports about every single soldier who died, where are you getting this information ?
The news was reported by DAWN magazine. You can look at the magazine and confirm it. In addition to an investigation conducted by a state agency into the loss of radioactive elements from India's nuclear stockpile through the black market.
Well, I did not expect the PAF to be 'as stupid' as to put its super-turbo-AI-supported-wunderwaffe NG-MMCC 'in the open', and then in the middle of the Nur Khan AB... nor for its SAM-gunners to go posting selfies of their (well-camouflaged) positions in the suburbs of Karachi, just for example...
But, well... considering the history of shaky (to put it mildly) security of Pakistan's nuclear intallations, as well as shaky security of PAF's installations (do I need to recall that with the Taliban entering the Saab 2000 base and destroying a number of these, or the fact that it's the PAF that's responsible for the maintenance and ops of Pakistan's nuclear weapons?)... hm... things do look the way that it wouldn't surprise me the least if somebody there 'put all the eggs into one basket'.
As for what is the Indian media claiming, and what is the level of actual damage: did I discuss that the same way?
BTW, actually, the max range from which the PAF (in the social media) claimed to have opened fire (not 'shot down') was (quote) '98 nautical miles'.
That's 181,5km.
Is no record number - especially since not mentioned in relation to any of specific claims, nor cross-confirmed by evidence the target was actually shot down (which, hand on heart: Pakistan didn't provide at all; without videos from the Indian social media, not one of Indian losses, and thus not one of Pakistani claims could be verified): the longest-ranged cross-confirmed kill from the Iran-Iraq War (i.e. a kill where crew-names of both jets are known) went over 120km (+).
According to DAWN magazine, China transferred a number of PL-15 missiles from its inventory of non-export versions to Pakistan. In addition, Pakistan used a different tactic in launching missiles, which is a group effort and guided missiles by early warning aircraft instead of the radar of J-10 and JF-17 aircraft. Therefore, the kill range may be correct, but I think it would be an exaggeration to say that it was carried out at a range of 172 km. I expect a kill operation to be at a range of only 149 km, because there is a lot of information talking about the location of Pakistani aircraft and missile remains that indicate that the range of killing and hitting Indian aircraft was between 140 km and 149 km, according to all information. Far from exaggerating and exaggerating the victory, but to be honest, I must say that the work of the Pakistani Air Force groups must be respected. They worked with great efficiency compared to the Indian Air Force, and the series of terrifying aircraft crashes every year is exaggerated to the point that some of their aircraft crash after receiving new ones only 3 months ago.
In your opinion which Indian missile can penetrate and obliterate the operations cell of the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] including the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s nuclear weapons arsenal facilities/installations?
I could have asked this question to Bharat Karnad, but, I didn't in view of my experience with him with regards to my comments on his blog posts, which he usually approves, but, almost never answers them completely and gives instead a half-baked reply to say, only 1 or 2 out of my several comments on his blog posts due to my interest in national security/strategic affairs and related things and his knowledge about these things.
I'd appreciate your reply to this question of mine.
Brilliant analysis. Thanks!
Excellent, both parts.
India achieve their goal plus not destroying Pakistan (and have a nightmare about who claims it's nuclear stockpile).
What's going on in Baluchistan? It's likely to suceed?
Wow and thanks for answering my question here. (Did IAF had capacity to finish PAF?)Do you think not finishing PAF would come to haunt India in future? Also would it be easy overcoming PAF next time as you said both airforces are of similar capabilities, so obviously PAF would have learnt the lesson and would plug the gaps exposed this time?
Very excellent, both parts and always concise/direct to the point replies on the second part. Thanks Tom again, the implications of the conflict and initial lessons learned will be very enlightened "ones" for those AF who are not 1st power countries but needs to level up their IADS or IACCS, eg ROC/Taiwan, the ZSU still, even the NATO/EU countries who support Ukraine.
Would there be a part 3? Seems more questions arises or details might come out?
Wishful thinking regarding NATO. As if the western turbo nations would degrade themselves to learn something from a conflict to the east!
Greetings and Good Afternoon from India, Tom!
First and foremost, I thank you for answering 1 out of my 4 questions as part of my comment on Tuesday, May 13, 2025 in your Substack post Illusions and Realities of 'Cross-Border Incidents', Part 2 (UPDATED).
I'm repeating below the 3 unanswered questions for you which you can reply as and when you find the time for the same [I hope you find the time to reply to these 3].
With regards to Operation Sindoor:
1. Is it true that the Indian Air Force [IAF] has lesser numbers of AEW&C/AWACS aircraft in comparison to the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]?
2. Are the IAF's Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin Beriev A-50 and Brazilian-origin Embraer ERJ-145 Nethra AEW&C/AWACS aircraft inferior to their PAF counterparts? The reason for this question is, I've read on the web that US/Western-origin military hardwares are expensive, have a long life and less expensive to maintain, whereas Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardwares are less expensive, have a short life and are expensive to maintain. I don't know how much of this is true. Maybe some what, maybe not. If you can please give your opinion on this, I'd appreciate it.
3. You've also mentioned about China mocking India on social media with regards to Operation Sindoor. Don't you think it's rich and hypocritical? Because the Chinese have copied/stolen/reverse engineered/made unauthorised copies of Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardwares [which are used in a major way by India and China too], along with copying/stealing US/Israeli [the IAI Lavi fighter jet blueprints which the Israelis sold to China to recover their investment in it after being forced by the US to buy the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon] military technologies like the one used for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and the last war that China fought was against Vietnam which it lost.
I'm adding 3 additional questions for you with regards to Operation Sindoor which might be connected to the 2019 Balakot airstrike. I forgot to ask this question earlier.
1. Is it true that the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet shot down by the Indian Air Force [IAF] fighter pilot, now-Wing Commander, Abhinandan Varthaman was in fact a Royal Jordanian Air Force [RJAF] loaned by Jordan to to Pakistan for use by the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]. I think I've a good reason to ask this, because the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] and the Government of the United States of America [GOUSA] after the 2019 Balakot airstrike by India claimed that all Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets were accounted for?
2. Was this claim a secret understanding or agreement between the USA and Pakistan as a face-saver for both including exclusively for the USA which needs India to defeat China and since 2008 its military hardwares sales to India [apart from Lockheed Martin pitching their India-specific variant of the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon as the Lockheed Martin F-21 for the Indian Air Force [IAF]'s Request For Proposal [RFP] for 114 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft [MMRCA], due to the USA having failed to sell any fighter aircraft/jet to India since the end of the Cold War and from the start of the new millennium in the 2000s] have increased from the almost non-existent state of theirs until the end of the Cold War?
3. Like during the 2019 Balakot airstrike by India, is it possible or did the Royal Jordanian Air Force [RJAF] or maybe any other Islamic/Muslim/Arab including anti-India Air Force [AF] which operates the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet given Pakistan's history of overt and covert military support to mainly the Islamic Muslim Arab nations in their war on the Jewish Zionist State of Israel including by sending covert Pakistani Air Force [PAF] fighter pilots flying Islamic Muslim Arab nations Air Force [AF] fighter jets in their war on the Jewish Zionist State of Israel's Israeli Air Force [IAF] loan in 2025 one of their Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] due to claims of a Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet having been shot down by the Indian Air Force [IAF] and or the Indian Army [IAF] using either or the Indian Air Force [IAF] fighter jets on their own or in coordination with the Indian Air Force [IAF] and the Indian Army [IA] individual and combined Air Defence System[s]?
I'd appreciate your reply to my remaining questions from Tuesday, May 13, 2025 including the ones from today, Friday, May 16, 2025.
Mate, thanks a lot for your posts. They're very interesting.
Sorry, I do not understand what questions from your first post have I missed?
Re, additional questions: I'll see to address them in the next feature, the next week.
Greetings and Good Morning from India, Tom!
First and foremost, I thank you for answering 1 out of my 4 questions as part of my comment on Tuesday, May 13, 2025 in your Substack post Illusions and Realities of 'Cross-Border Incidents', Part 2 (UPDATED).
I also thank you for your kind word of interesting for my posts. I appreciate it.
I'm repeating below the 3 unanswered questions from my first post for you below which you can reply as and when you find the time for the same [I hope you find the time to reply to these 3].
With regards to Operation Sindoor:
1. Is it true that the Indian Air Force [IAF] has lesser numbers of AEW&C/AWACS aircraft in comparison to the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]?
2. Are the IAF's Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin Beriev A-50 and Brazilian-origin Embraer ERJ-145 Nethra AEW&C/AWACS aircraft inferior to their PAF counterparts? The reason for this question is, I've read on the web that US/Western-origin military hardwares are expensive, have a long life and less expensive to maintain, whereas Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardwares are less expensive, have a short life and are expensive to maintain. I don't know how much of this is true. Maybe some what, maybe not. If you can please give your opinion on this, I'd appreciate it.
3. You've also mentioned about China mocking India on social media with regards to Operation Sindoor. Don't you think it's rich and hypocritical? Because the Chinese have copied/stolen/reverse engineered/made unauthorised copies of Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardwares [which are used in a major way by India and China too], along with copying/stealing US/Israeli [the IAI Lavi fighter jet blueprints which the Israelis sold to China to recover their investment in it after being forced by the US to buy the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon] military technologies like the one used for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and the last war that China fought was against Vietnam which it lost.
I'm adding 5 questions for you today, Saturday, May 17, 2025 in addition to my 3 questions from yesterday, Friday, May 16, 2025 with regards to Operation Sindoor which might be connected to the 2019 Balakot airstrike. I forgot to ask these 5 additional questions earlier and yesterday, Friday, May 16, 2025.
1. Is it true that the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet shot down by the Indian Air Force [IAF] fighter pilot, now-Wing Commander, Abhinandan Varthaman was in fact a Royal Jordanian Air Force [RJAF] loaned by Jordan to to Pakistan for use by the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]. I think I've a good reason to ask this, because the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] and the Government of the United States of America [GOUSA] after the 2019 Balakot airstrike by India claimed that all Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets were accounted for?
2. Was this claim a secret understanding or agreement between the USA and Pakistan as a face-saver for both including exclusively for the USA which needs India to defeat China and since 2008 its military hardwares sales to India [apart from Lockheed Martin pitching their India-specific variant of the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon as the Lockheed Martin F-21 for the Indian Air Force [IAF]'s Request For Proposal [RFP] for 114 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft [MMRCA], due to the USA having failed to sell any fighter aircraft/jet to India since the end of the Cold War and from the start of the new millennium in the 2000s] have increased from the almost non-existent state of theirs until the end of the Cold War?
3. Like during the 2019 Balakot airstrike by India, is it possible or did the Royal Jordanian Air Force [RJAF] or maybe any other Islamic/Muslim/Arab including anti-India Air Force [AF] which operates the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet given Pakistan's history of overt and covert military support to mainly the Islamic Muslim Arab nations in their war on the Jewish Zionist State of Israel including by sending covert Pakistani Air Force [PAF] fighter pilots flying Islamic Muslim Arab nations Air Force [AF] fighter jets in their war on the Jewish Zionist State of Israel's Israeli Air Force [IAF] loan in 2025 one of their Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] due to claims of a Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet having been shot down by the Indian Air Force [IAF] and or the Indian Army [IAF] using either or the Indian Air Force [IAF] fighter jets on their own or in coordination with the Indian Air Force [IAF] and the Indian Army [IA] individual and combined Air Defence System[s]?
4. India said it hit Islamabad. Since the Pakistani military intelligence organisation, the Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] Head Quarters [HQ] is located in the Aabpara area of Islamabad, was the Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] Head Quarters [HQ] also hit?
5. Is it true that when India hit the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Nur Khan Air Base near Islamabad, the Pakistani Army [PA] Chief Of Army Staff [COAS], General Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah was taken to a fortified bunker within the Pakistani Army [PA]'s General Head Quarters [GHQ] and that he hid there for around 2 hours?
6. When India hit the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]'s Nur Khan Air Force Base [AFB] near Islamabad, it is said on the web, that the Pakistani Air Force [PAF]'s Nur Khan Air Force Base [AFB] is in close proximity to the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] which is the custodian of Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal. Was the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] also hit?
7. The Director-General of Air Operations [DGAO], Air Marshal A. K. Bharti during the Director-General of Military Operations [DGMO] press conference on Monday, May 12, 2025 kind of sarcastically replied to a journalist's question about Kirana Hills that India didn't hit Kirana Hills and that India didn't know that Kirana Hills had Pakistan's nuclear weapons and thanked the journalist for telling him that. What do you make of it? Yesterday, Friday, May 16, 2025, on the Indian English TV news channel, CNN-News18, I saw the interview of Major General R. Narayanan [Retired], the former Additional Director-General of Military Operations [ADGMO] who said that India hit the entrance and exit points in Kirana Hills thereby trapping the Pakistani nuclear weapons inside there. He also said that when Pakistan tries to clear this, India will hit again. By hit again, he meant that during such a hit, when the enemy nation tries to clear the entrance and exit of such a location, the enemy's enemy hits again, which in this case will be India. Is this true?
8. Did India's hit on the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] Nur Khan Air Force Base [AFB] along with the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] in close proximity to it also getting hit and the Pakistani Army [PA] Chief Of Army Staff [COAS], General Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah having to hid in a fortified bunker within the Pakistani Army [PA]'s General Head Quarters [GHQ] for around 2 hours make the Pakistani Army [PA]'s Director-General of Military Operations [DGMO], Major General Kashif Abdullah Chaudhry call the Indian Army [IA]'s Director-General of Military Operations [DGMO], Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai and request for a ceasefire on Saturday, May 10, 2025?
I'd appreciate your reply to my remaining questions from Tuesday, May 13, 2025 including the ones from today, Saturday, May 17, 2025.
Tom thank you for all of your work. One question from me please :
You stated that India disabled the nuclear capability of Pakistan and explained the Kirana Hills strike in great detail.
But would Pakistan not have other nuclear sites/facilities which they could still use?
Apologies if this is a stupid question, am a complete novice.
Greatly appreciate your efforts. Ironic that in the "age of information", the truth only becomes harder to find.
My pleasure.
And... oh, this is a very good question!
Yes, of course, Pakistan has a number of other nuclear facilities, and it's certainly continuing to make use of them. The question is: how many of them contain how many of nuclear warheads?
I do not know the answer.
What I do know, though, is that considering its proximity to the Mushaf AB (i.e. the PAF Sargodha complex), the extension of the local radar site, overground depots (hardened shelters), the extension of the local missile garrison, and the fact all of this is controlled by the PAF (which is also responsible for handling the Pakistani nuclear weapons), the Kirina Hills was one of best-protected pieces of real estate in all of Pakistan.
At least in theory, it is 'handy' to have all such stuff bunched together 'in one place' (or at least within a complex sprawling over some 15km): makes it easier to defend. But, that's theory.
(This, even more so considering that - as should be known by now - there were times Pakistan required US troops to protect its nuclear weapons storage sites, too...)
In turn, though, when the defences of such a site are damaged, disabled or whatever... at least degraded to the degree where India can openly strike at them - then that's very, very bad.
This two-part article/Q&A is masterful. I am enjoying reading it while planning my holiday in India in October.
Thank you for all the unbiased analyis:)
I hav a nube question:
What good is a Air defense system if it cannot even defend itself?
If it is damaged using a jammer or something, why couldn't IAF just jam PAFs defense system on 7th itself before targeting the terrorists sites. They didn't need to destroy it just suppress or jam it for sometime, as whole operation was over in 25 mins?
My pleasure.
Re. what's the use of an air defence system if it cannot defend itself: theoretically, none, of course. In practice, one is deploying multiple different SAM-systems so they can protect each other from different types of threats.
So, for example: the Russians are usually protecting their S-400 firing units/battalions by Pantsyrs, if necessary with Buks too.
Re. jamming the Pakistani IADS: modern-day radars as installed in SAM-systems like HQ-9, HQ-16 and different other stuff, are extremely hard to 'jam'. Thus, one is usually combining jamming with deployment of decoys and other countermeasures.
For how is that working, please see:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/saints-thunders-and-lightnings-part-583
For further info about air defences, cannot but recommend reading some of the links provided in the feature here (have really tried my best to keep all these explanations as simple, but also as entertaining as possible):
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/iads-part-2
Thank you Tom, I know how India got it done now.
thank you. very informative
Hi Tom!
I could not thank you more for this wonderful analysis. As an Indian national who is seeing proper war (limited, but war nonetheless) for the first time in my life, the level of misinformation/disinformation (from both sides) has been mind-boggling & extremely annoying.
To then have a voice of reason who can string together the exact chronology of events and why, is so satisfying - I can't even put into words. So, once again, thank you!
I have two questions for you, and they concern more about Pakistan in the now and in the future since all I hear in our media is self congratulatory chest thumping, which tbh felt good for the first 24-48 hours, but we really need to move on now.
1. Was the Pakistani reaction on 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th, strictly in terms of the volume of weaponry used (missiles, drones and airplanes everything) lower than expected? Reason I ask is because their FM Ishaq Dhar has gone on record (and so have their Armed Forces) to say that Pakistan showed a lot of restraint and try to paint the picture of India being the aggressor in this case. Reason why this is relevant is because historically speaking, it is the Pakistanis who have been trigger happy over the last 20-30 years - whether it be 1971 or Kargil or through the numerous proxy wars or their constant nuclear posturing.
If there was indeed some restraint from the Pakistani side, what could be the reason behind it? Because considering their economic condition, the amount of ammunition they have etc. , it would make sense in my head to retaliate quickly and with a disproportionate amount of force against Indian aggressions on the 6th night/7th morning.
Or is this just a case of (no better way to say it) - barking dogs seldom bite? Would love your thoughts on this.
2. Where does Pakistan go from here? As the side defeated, they have to be licking their wounds and biding their time. There is absolutely no way (given how their military apparatus works) they can just accept this and do nothing. The Pakistanis are proud people, they will not take such an ego hit lightly and for their military to maintain legitimacy inside Pak- they need to show proof of giving back at some point. You can sense the frustration starting to boil in their local Social Media & discourse.
What can they do? Continuation of proxy war through the JeM and LeT is an option, but that does not give their military a chance to thump their chest in front of their local support base - even if it provides a sort of vicarious pleasure, seeing their enemy India being hit regularly. In my, extremely amateur and noob opinion, I feel that the military will have to respond at some point. Question is what would be a legitimate window for them to respond and if you were their strategic planner, what would you be thinking about doing next, where and when?
3. What does this do for the long term peace and stability of the region, when you add the third actor China into the mix. Cos, with all due respect to your analysis, I feel they are the real victors here. Yes maybe the PL-15s failed to hit a few targets or some J-10s/JF17s were destroyed, but as they say right - when two monkeys fight, the third one wins.
Apologies for the questions being rather long, or if anything is inappropriate, biased or asking too much. Please take your time to respond or don't respond at all but I would sincerely love to hear your thoughts on these.
PS - Loving your interviews on Indian media. Just as an aside, and on a lighter note - as the first respected analyst to say India won - we are going to lap up everything you say or do at the moment. So is Tom Cooper going to be part of the next big-ticket Bollywood project on Op Sindhoor, cos trust me, there definitely will be one :D
Thank you very much Mr. Cooper for answering my queries
I had started interacting with you just before the Russian Ukraine war began in early 2022 on Facebook but later you shifted to Substack and this was the first time i had asked you queries on this platform.
A lot of folks in India who do not know you are hearing about your analysis for the first time but i would like to say that as you mentioned you have been in contact with experts like Ravi Rikhye and other retired Military officers from the Indian Side for a long time so you are in a position to present an appreciation of the situation objectively.
Sorry just wanted to add another point - it seems that India only has 3 S-400 battalions. We had ordered 5 but received 3 because of production delays owing to Russia-Ukraine war. Remaining 2 expected soon.
Link - https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-received-three-units-of-s-400-missile-systems-from-russia-iaf-chief-marshal-ap-singh/articleshow/113932431.cms
Thank you for your analysis. It would be great if you could find time to do a deep dive into what this conflict means for Taiwan and the recommended porcupine defence strategy various strategic institutes have recommended in recent years.
My pleasure.
Re. Taiwan... ugh... mate: alone Ukraine, Zionism vs Everybody, and India-Pakistan (not to talk about my usual work) are meanwhile keeping me so busy, I've got no hope of trying ot find out what's up in regarding of Taiwan. At most managing to follow major PLAAF and PLAN exercises around the island...
Really sorry: I'm a true 'news junkie' for such topics, and would like to find out and be able to explain on my own, but 'time'...
In my opinion, Pakistan did not lose because India restored the flow of water from the rivers due to high water pressure, which caused cracks in the dams, as India does not invest in the maintenance and construction of dams and suffers from corruption in the service infrastructure sector such as electricity and water. Regarding targeting a storage site, as I mentioned, for Pakistani nuclear weapons, I do not think the Pakistanis are stupid enough to put all their weapons in one place. There are about 48 sites for storing nuclear weapons, only 20 contain weapons and the rest are for concealment. One of them is the base I mentioned, as it did not contain any nuclear weapons. In contrast, India received important strikes inside Indian bases as well. However, there is a cover-up of the damage that affected the Indian bases, including a base in Punjab, the Indian part, which contains nuclear weapons for the Indian Air Force, in addition to the fall of tactical missiles launched by India that fell inside its territory after a failure, causing massive damage, one of which was a BrahMos missile that hit an Indian base after an Indian pilot fired a missile at a site in Kashmir near the border, which he thought was a Pakistani site. Of course, the matter resulted in the deaths of 22 Indian soldier made a mistake Asian media reported the news and an Indian military statement confirmed the incident, admitting that there was a mistake during the targeting process.
Another thing from satellite images is that the damage caused by the Indian attack was minimal and not as promoted, where the Indians promoted that they wiped out everyone in the bases as the Indian media said. The funny thing is that this did not happen. In the end, India may face pressure in the future from several parties, the first of which is China, which may increase its military support for Pakistan. I must also mention an important point, which is that the downing of the Indian Air Force planes was done from a range of 172 km, which is a record number. This raises the question: Are the PL-15 missiles that Pakistan operates E version or not? Because the E version has a range of 145 km and the downing process was done from a longer range. This is an important point that I think you missed with all this talk about the alleged Indian superiority.
"22 indian soldiers died" what are you talking about, there is no source for any of this, India reports about every single soldier who died, where are you getting this information ?
The news was reported by DAWN magazine. You can look at the magazine and confirm it. In addition to an investigation conducted by a state agency into the loss of radioactive elements from India's nuclear stockpile through the black market.
Well, I did not expect the PAF to be 'as stupid' as to put its super-turbo-AI-supported-wunderwaffe NG-MMCC 'in the open', and then in the middle of the Nur Khan AB... nor for its SAM-gunners to go posting selfies of their (well-camouflaged) positions in the suburbs of Karachi, just for example...
But, well... considering the history of shaky (to put it mildly) security of Pakistan's nuclear intallations, as well as shaky security of PAF's installations (do I need to recall that with the Taliban entering the Saab 2000 base and destroying a number of these, or the fact that it's the PAF that's responsible for the maintenance and ops of Pakistan's nuclear weapons?)... hm... things do look the way that it wouldn't surprise me the least if somebody there 'put all the eggs into one basket'.
As for what is the Indian media claiming, and what is the level of actual damage: did I discuss that the same way?
BTW, actually, the max range from which the PAF (in the social media) claimed to have opened fire (not 'shot down') was (quote) '98 nautical miles'.
That's 181,5km.
Is no record number - especially since not mentioned in relation to any of specific claims, nor cross-confirmed by evidence the target was actually shot down (which, hand on heart: Pakistan didn't provide at all; without videos from the Indian social media, not one of Indian losses, and thus not one of Pakistani claims could be verified): the longest-ranged cross-confirmed kill from the Iran-Iraq War (i.e. a kill where crew-names of both jets are known) went over 120km (+).
According to DAWN magazine, China transferred a number of PL-15 missiles from its inventory of non-export versions to Pakistan. In addition, Pakistan used a different tactic in launching missiles, which is a group effort and guided missiles by early warning aircraft instead of the radar of J-10 and JF-17 aircraft. Therefore, the kill range may be correct, but I think it would be an exaggeration to say that it was carried out at a range of 172 km. I expect a kill operation to be at a range of only 149 km, because there is a lot of information talking about the location of Pakistani aircraft and missile remains that indicate that the range of killing and hitting Indian aircraft was between 140 km and 149 km, according to all information. Far from exaggerating and exaggerating the victory, but to be honest, I must say that the work of the Pakistani Air Force groups must be respected. They worked with great efficiency compared to the Indian Air Force, and the series of terrifying aircraft crashes every year is exaggerated to the point that some of their aircraft crash after receiving new ones only 3 months ago.
Greetings and Good Evening from India, Tom!
The Indian analyst Bharat Karnad [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Karnad] in his recent blog post "Nuclear aspects of Sindoor, Trump re-hyphenates India, Pakistan, etc: Interview with Rediff" [https://bharatkarnad.com/2025/05/14/nuclear-aspects-of-sindoor-trump-re-hyphenates-india-pakistan-etc-interview-with-rediff] says "Indian missile attack on Chaklala - HQ Strategic Plans Division - Pakistan's nuclear secretariat, may have been a wake up call. But the ops cell of SPD is situated underground which the Indian missile could not have, and was not, designed to penetrate."
In your opinion which Indian missile can penetrate and obliterate the operations cell of the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] including the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s nuclear weapons arsenal facilities/installations?
I could have asked this question to Bharat Karnad, but, I didn't in view of my experience with him with regards to my comments on his blog posts, which he usually approves, but, almost never answers them completely and gives instead a half-baked reply to say, only 1 or 2 out of my several comments on his blog posts due to my interest in national security/strategic affairs and related things and his knowledge about these things.
I'd appreciate your reply to this question of mine.
OK, I'll add my answers to the next 'update'.
Greetings and Good Morning from India, Tom!
I thank you for your reply to my comment. I appreciate it.
I will look forward to your answers to my comments so far in your next update.